Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti; Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas; Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands; Central Bahamas; Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach; Florida Keys; Lake Okeechobee; Florida Bay; Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province A Warning is in effect for Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti; Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince; Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara A Surge Watch is in effect for Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach; Florida Keys Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 20.4 north, 69.7 west LOCATION: 120 miles (190 kilometers) southeast of Grand Turk Island MOVEMENT: west-northwest at 16 mph (26 kph) WINDS: 175 mph (280 kph) with gusts to 210 mph (340 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 185 miles (295 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 60 miles (95 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 921 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 5 Hurricane 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: MEDIUM 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Discussion Hurricane Irma, located approximately 120 miles (190 kilometers) southeast of Grand Turk Island, is currently tracking west-northwest at 16 mph (26 kph). The eye on satellite continues to be quite distinct, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane has allowed the NHC to set the initial intensity at 175 mph (280 kph). This means Irma remains a powerful Category 5 hurricane, and as of 10:00 AM Central time on September 7, has remained Category 5 intensity for 51 consecutive hours. The minimum central pressure remains near 921 millibars. The environment along the future track of Irma is favorable for the hurricane to maintain most of its current intensity, although some fluctuations are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles which are difficult to predict. There are no obvious reasons why Irma will not remain a powerful hurricane for the next 3 days while approaching Florida. Thereafter, an increase in wind shear could lead to gradual weakening, but Irma is expected to remain a major hurricane until landfall occurs. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest. Irma is being steered by the flow around the south side of a ridge of high pressure, but in 2 to 3 days, the hurricane will be located on the southwestern edge of the aforementioned ridge, and a turn to the northwest and north-northwest should then begin. There has been no change in the forecast model guidance which is still quite clustered and brings the core of Irma very near the southeast Florida coast in about 3 days. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 2

3 Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today. These hazards will spread across the Turks and Caicos tonight and the Bahamas tonight through Saturday. 2. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday. 3. The threat of dangerous major hurricane impacts in Florida continues to increase. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for south Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. This watch will likely be expanded northward later today. Residents in these areas should heed any advice given by local officials. 4. A Surge Watch has also been issued for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys. This means there is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. The Potential Surge Flooding Map depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend through 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in the watch area. 5. The chance of direct impacts is increasing in portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify the magnitude and location of the impacts. Additional Information STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys: 5 to 10 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands: 15 to 20 feet Southeastern and central Bahamas: 15 to 20 feet Northwestern Bahamas: 5 to 10 feet Northern coast of the Dominican Republic: 3 to 5 feet Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave: 1 to 3 feet Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area: 5 to 10 feet Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 3

4 WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropical storm conditions expected within the next several hours. These conditions will spread into the central Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba by Friday. storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday evening: Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands: additional 2 to 4 inches (isolated 6 inches) Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 20 inches) Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas: 12 to 16 inches (isolated 25 inches) Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 10 inches (isolated 15 inches) Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti: 2 to 5 inches Eastern and central Cuba: 4 to 10 inches (isolated 15 inches) Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 20 inches) Lower Florida Keys: 2 to 5 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 4

5 National Hurricane Center Forecast Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 5

6 Most Likely Arrival Time of -Force Winds Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 6

7 National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 7

8 Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 8

9 Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 9

10 NHC: Surge Watch/Warning Graphic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 10

11 Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 11

12 Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Thursday afternoon after 4:00 PM Central Time (21:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 12

13 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) Depression NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Depression BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Depression SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Depression Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) Depression North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Depression Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 13

14 About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 14