Storm Summary for Hurricane Jose
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- Dominick Griffith
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1 Storm Summary for Hurricane Jose Tuesday, September 19, 2017 at 11 AM EDT (Output from Hurrevac, based on National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory #57) Jose is currently a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (65 kts), moving north at 7 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the storm center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the storm center. Certain coastal locations are under Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch. The geographic extents of these watches and warnings are detailed in the advisory text at the end of this report.
2 Wind Analysis for Newport, RI (Based upon Hurricane JOSE Advisory #57) Wind Probabilities Providence, RI, the closest reporting location, has within the 5-day forecast period of this advisory, a 38% chance of at least tropical storm-force (34kt/39mph) winds. Peak Wind* No tropical storm winds are predicted for Newport, RI during the next 72 hours. Wind Arrival and Duration* No tropical storm winds are predicted for Newport, RI during the next 72 hours. * These wind estimations are limited to the first 72 hours (3 days) following advisory issuance, and are subject to considerable forecast uncertainty and generalization, especially if the storm is distant. Maximum sustained winds (the highest surface wind maintained over a 1 minute period) are reported here. Wind gusts and winds at higher elevations will be greater. Storm Summary for Hurricane Jose #57 - Page 2
3 000 WTNT32 KNHC TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep AL JOSE MAINTAINING STATUS AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE......DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION N 71.7W ABOUT 230 MI KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 335 MI KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MB INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from New Haven to Watch Hill. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Hull * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located Storm Summary for Hurricane Jose #57 - Page 3
4 by an an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 71.7 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today with a turn to the northeast anticipated tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). NOAA Buoy 44014, located east of the Virginia-North Carolina border or about 160 miles west of the center of Jose, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance aircraft was 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep AL Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jose's overall structure and wind Storm Summary for Hurricane Jose #57 - Page 4
5 field have changed little since the previous advisory. Although the highest 700-mb flight-level wind and SFMR surface winds reported by the aircraft were 66 kt and 57 kt, respectively, these winds were observed in areas of little or no convection. Given the large size of Jose's wind field, it unlikely that the aircraft sampled the strongest winds, and the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The aircraft also measured a central pressure of 976 mb, indicating that Jose remains a strong cyclone. The low-level center has been wobbling around inside the larger inner-core circulation, resulting in a forward motion a little west of due north or 350/06 kt. Overall there is no significant change to the previous track forecast. The global and regional models remain in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning toward the northeast and east over the next couple days as it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic. On days 3-5, the models agree on a high-latitude ridge building to the north of the cyclone, forcing Jose to move slowly or drift southward over the North Atlantic. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models. Since the previous advisory, shallow convection has been increasing in both depth and areal coverage in the southeastern semicircle, while deeper convection has remained over the northwestern semicircle. The recent formation of convection to the southeast is beginning to give Jose the appearance of developing a large truck-tire eye with a diameter of approximately 100 nmi. Such eye patterns typically indicate a fairly stable cyclone that doesn't weaken or weakens only slowly. Although the center of Jose will be moving over 21C SSTs by h, a significant portion of the large circulation will still be situated over water south of the Gulf Stream that is positioned along 40N latitude, which will maintain a southerly feed of warm, moist, unstable air into and north of the center. Given the combination of the aforementioned favorable thermodynamic conditions and only modest vertical wind shear of kt, the intensity forecast remains basically unchanged from the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the U.S. east coast from Long Island to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New Storm Summary for Hurricane Jose #57 - Page 5
6 England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 36.5N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 39.9N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 39.9N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 39.2N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/1200Z 38.7N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/1200Z 38.4N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN Storm Summary for Hurricane Jose #57 - Page 6
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