Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
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1 Current Watches and Warnings A Warning is in effect from Anclote River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line; north of the Volusia/Brevard County line to the South Santee River A Surge Warning is in effect from South Santee River southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line; north of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River; Tampa Bay Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 30.3 north, 83.1 west LOCATION: 70 miles (115 kilometers) east of Tallahassee, Florida MOVEMENT: north-northwest at 17 mph (28 kph) WINDS: 65 mph (100 kph) with gusts to 75 mph (120 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 415 miles (665 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: 1 st U.S. LANDFALL LOCATION: Cudjoe Key (Florida Keys) 1 st U.S. LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 9:10 AM local time (13:10 UTC) September 10 1 st U.S. LANDFALL INTENSITY: 130 mph (210 kph) Category 4 Hurricane 2 nd U.S. LANDFALL LOCATION: Marco Island, Florida 2 nd U.S. LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 3:35 PM local time (19:35 UTC) September 10 2 nd U.S. LANDFALL INTENSITY: 115 mph (185 kph) Category 3 Hurricane 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: MEDIUM Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
2 Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Discussion Irma, located approximately 70 miles (115 kilometers) east of Tallahassee, Florida, is currently tracking north-northwest at 17 mph (28 kph). Irma continues to weaken while moving over extreme northern Florida with most of the deep convection displaced well to the north and northeast of the center due to strong vertical wind shear. In fact, current global model analyses suggest that the system has taken on partial extratropical characteristics, with some associated cold and warm air advection. The NHC has set the current intensity 65 mph (100 kph) which is in line with the highest sustained winds seen in surface observations. Since the cyclone is very large, the weakening will be fairly gradual. However, the effects of land and wind shear should reduce the system to a depression in about 24 hours. Shortly after that time, Irma will likely become a remnant low, with complete dissipation within 72 hours. The initial motion continues to be north-northwestward. There has not been much change to the NHC track forecast. Irma or its remnants should continue to move along the eastern and northeastern periphery of a broad mid-level cyclonic circulation until dissipation. The official NHC track forecast is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus. Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along portions of the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, where a Surge Warning remains in effect. Cat Alert: Irma 2
3 2. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding across much of the northern peninsula and eastern panhandle of Florida, and southern Georgia, which is quickly spreading to the rest of the southeast United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 inches or more per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern Georgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches are expected. Significant river flooding is possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of central Georgia and southern South Carolina where average rainfall of 3 to 6 inches and isolated 10 inch amounts are expected. Portions of these states within the southern Appalachians will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Additional Information STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River: 4 to 6 feet Anna Maria Island to Clearwater, including Tampa Bay: 2 to 4 feet Captiva to Anna Maria Island: 3 to 5 feet Bonita Beach to Captiva: 2 to 4 feet South Santee River to Fernandina Beach: 4 to 6 feet Fernandina Beach to Flagler/Volusia County line, including the St. Johns River: 3 to 5 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. WIND: storm conditions will continue across portions of the central and northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia. storm conditions are spreading into the eastern Florida Panhandle. storm conditions are also expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning area through today. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia: Additional 3 to 6 inches w/ storm total amounts of 8 to 15 inches Central Georgia, eastern Alabama and southern South Carolina: 3 to inches (isolated 10 inches) Central Florida Panhandle, western Alabama, northern Mississippi, southern Tennessee, northern Georgia, northern South Carolina and western North Carolina: 2 to 4 inches The precipitation threat for most of the Florida peninsula, except for the northernmost portions, has diminished. Scattered showers are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of less than an inch across most of the Florida peninsula during Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Irma 3
4 National Hurricane Center Forecast Cat Alert: Irma 4
5 National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Irma 5
6 Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Irma 6
7 NHC: Surge Watch/Warning Graphic Cat Alert: Irma 7
8 NHC: Surge Inundation Graphic Cat Alert: Irma 8
9 Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Since continued weakening over land is expected, this will be the final meteorological Cat Alert on Hurricane Irma. A detailed Cat Alert covering an in-depth view of initial impacts of the event will be released on September 11. Cat Alert: Irma 9
10 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Irma 10
11 About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Irma 11
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