TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING

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1 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING 10:00 AM CDT Sunday, August 27, 2017 Prepared by: NWS LIX NWSNewOrleans

2 Situation Overview New Information Tropical Storm Winds 40mph Immediate Concerns watching rain bands closely; could impact areas just east of the Atchafalya river with heavy rain and possible tornadoes Long-Term Concerns Heavy rain still the greatest concern.

3 Marine / Coastal Concerns Near Term Today through Monday SW Louisiana Southeast wind 15 to 25 knots. Seas increasing to 6 to 10 ft. Numerous showers and thunderstorms Tides increasing to 2 to 3 feet above normal. SE Louisiana East MS River - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. West of MS River Southeast wind increasing 10 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Swells moving northward from Harvey Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tides to1to 2 feet above normal through the week. Longer Term Tuesday through next week. Highly dependent on track outcome Wind, seas, and tides could increase considerably if Harvey moves toward region Tropical Storm conditions cannot be ruled out over southwest LA coastal waters next week.

4 Threat Levels Threat Level Extreme High Moderate Low None Winds Surge Rainfall/ Flooding Tornadoes

5 Current Satellite View

6 Current Radar View Catastrophic flooding continues across portions of southeast Texas and these rain bands may push into extreme southwest LA today Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop across the area with rain bands possibly trying to develop near the Atchafalya River later today.

7 Forecast & Rainfall: Today Frontal boundary still remains across the region and will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. This is a concern in the short term as rain could be heavy at times. Harvey stalled just northwest of Corpus Christi. Harvey is now a minimal tropical storm but the flooding threat is well under way with catastrophic flooding across portions of southeast Texas. An isolated tornado or two are not out of the question across extreme western portions of the area.

8 Forecast & Rainfall: Monday Frontal boundary just south of the coast and continues to serves as a focus for rainfall. Locally heavy rain continues to be a concern. Harvey still drifting near the middle Texas coast. Shower activity due to Harvey may begin to increase over our area.

9 Forecast & Rainfall: Tuesday Frontal boundary still just south of the coast and continues to serves as a focus for rainfall. Tropical moisture from Harvey could spread along the stalled frontal boundary enhancing the heavy rain risk as any thunderstorm or shower will be an efficient rain producer. Harvey still remains over south central Texas. Tropical showers with heavy rain spreading eastward. 1-3 inches locally higher in rain bands.

10 Forecast & Rainfall: Wednesday & Thursday Frontal boundary and Harvey continues to spread tropical rainfall across the Gulf Coast. Harvey starts to drift north-northeast towards along the TX coast. 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible in this timeframe in some places. The risk of tornadoes begins to increase Tuesday and Wednesday.

11 Forecast & Rainfall: Friday & Saturday Harvey continues to slowly move north over eastern Texas continuing to dump rainfall over the region. An additional 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible in this timeframe in some places. Still a lot of uncertainty with the track/exit progression of Harvey. Multiple solutions from dying over Texas to re-emerging into the far northwestern Gulf.

12 Forecast: Sunday Remnants of Harvey still impacting the region, could be dealing with rain continuing into next weekend. Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts

13 Expected Storm Total Rainfall Storm total rainfall forecast valid today through Sunday morning Locally, most rain will occur Tuesday through Sunday morning Note: There will likely be locally higher amounts

14 Tornado Potential Tornado risk is increasing mainly along areas near the Atchafalaya River today Tornado risk slowly expands east over the next 2 days

15 Summary Harvey is now a minimal tropical storm and bringing catastrophic flooding to portions of southeast Texas and especially the Houston metro Harvey is drifting just northwest of Corpus Christi. Forecast still remains the same as it drifts over southeast Texas for a few days, and then begins a slow turn to the north-northeast possibly remaining in east Texas through Thursday. Prolonged heavy rainfall is STILL the main threat with Harvey. Even outside of Harvey we could still see locally heavy rain the next few days with the front stalled along the coast and very rich moisture builds over the region. Rainfall totals of 4 to 10 inches total for this event higher amounts southwest. Locally higher amounts are possible in prolonged rain bands. (Highly dependent on track and stalled frontal boundary) *** This is a 7 day rain total through Sunday morning ***

16 Summary The exact track and rainfall totals remains uncertain to forecast in the long-term. Tides increasing 1-2 feet above normal (SE LA) and 2 to 3 ft above normal (SW LA). Confidence is high in the next 48 hours with Harvey stalling along the middle Texas coast. *** steering currents remain very weak and Harvey will meander over southeast Texas for the next hours. Forecast models do not handle that well. *** This forecast could change. Often good at the big picture, very tough to tell where heavy rain bands will set up, be ready for Flash Flood Warnings.

17 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING Please contact WFO at or or through the LIXchat NWSChatroom The Next Briefing Will Be: Sunday at 2:00 PM CDT You can get the latest graphics and information on this storm at NWSNewOrleans

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