IWT Scenario 2 Integrated Warning Team Workshop National Weather Service Albany, NY October 31, 2014

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1 IWT Scenario 2 Integrated Warning Team Workshop National Weather Service Albany, NY October 31, 2014

2 Scenario 2 Timeline December 9-13 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

3 Tue, Dec. 5 am Hazardous Weather Outlook - Segmented

4 IWT Scenario 2 NWS Albany Weather Update Tuesday Dec 9, PM

5 IWT Scenario 2 Tue, Dec. 1 pm Overview: A significant winter storm is expected to impact the NWS Albany forecast area Thursday into Friday as low pressure tracks from the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, to near Long Island by Friday Morning. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet and freezing rain are possible. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations over southern areas are forecast to be great enough to cause localized to scattered power outages. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for our entire forecast area. No conference calls today but we will hold calls tomorrow at 1:30 PM for NY and 2:00 PM for New England.

6 Tue, Dec. 1 pm NWS Albany forecast storm total snowfall (ending 1 PM Friday)

7 Tue, Dec. 1 pm NWS Albany forecast storm ice accumulation (ending 1 PM Friday)

8 IWT Scenario 2 Tue, Dec. 1 pm Summary: A significant winter storm is expected to impact the NWS Albany forecast area Thursday into Friday. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet and freezing rain are possible Impacts: Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations over southern areas are forecast to be great enough to cause localized to scattered power outages Difficult travel conditions are expected Thursday into Friday **No conference calls today but we will hold calls tomorrow at 1:30 PM for NY and 2:00 PM for New England Call information provided in next update.**

9 Tuesday Afternoon Social Media Update Winter Storm Expected Thurs-Fri A wintry mix will impact the region Thursday into Friday Areas near and north of I- 90 will see mainly snow, with snow totals around a foot possible Further south, freezing rain and sleet will occur, with significant icing possible Expected Snow Amounts Expected Ice Amounts

10 IWT Scenario 2 NWS Albany Weather Update Wednesday Dec 10, PM

11 IWT Scenario 2 Wed, Dec. 1 pm Overview: Forecaster confidence is high that a significant winter storm is expected to impact the NWS Albany forecast area Thursday into Friday. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet and freezing rain are forecast. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations are now forecast to be inch across a large area. Numerous long-lived power outages now expected. An Ice Storm Warning is in effect for the southern half of our area. Mostly snow is forecast over our Adirondack Counties.

12 Wed, Dec. 1 pm NWS Albany forecast storm total snowfall (ending 1 PM Friday)

13 Wed, Dec. 1 pm NWS Albany forecast storm ice accumulation (ending 1 PM Friday)

14 Wed, Dec. 1 pm NWS Albany forecast storm total liquid equivalent (ending 1 PM Friday)

15 Summary: IWT Scenario 2 Wed, Dec. 1 pm A significant winter storm is expected to impact the NWS Albany forecast area Thursday into Friday. Light snow (north) mixed precipitation (south) on Thursday becoming heavy Thursday evening and overnight before ending Friday morning. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations are now forecast to be inch across a large area. Numerous long-lived power outages now expected. A very wet system is expected. Storm has a lot of moisture to work with. Precipitation type is the big question. ** We will again hold conference calls tomorrow at 1:30 PM for NY and 2:00 PM for New England Please use same dial-in information.**

16 Wednesday Afternoon Social Media Update Significant Ice Storm Expected Thurs-Fri A long duration period of freezing rain is expected to occur across much of eastern Upstate NY & Western New England, including the Capital Region & mid-hudson Valley Ice accretion of one-half inch or greater will lead to treacherous travel and power outages The precipitation is expected to be mainly snow further north Expected Ice Amounts

17 Wed, Dec. 4 pm Winter Storm/Ice Storm Warnings Change: Flood Watch

18 Wed, Dec. 4 pm 2014 Flood Watch

19 IWT Scenario 2 NWS Albany Weather Update Thursday Dec 11, AM

20 IWT Scenario 2 Thu, Dec. 5 am Overview: Confidence remains high that a significant winter storm is expected to impact the NWS Albany forecast area Today into Friday. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are forecast. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations are still forecast to be inch across a narrowing area. Numerous long-lived power outages still expected. An Ice Storm Warning is in effect for most of the southern half of our area. A flood watch continues for the southern third of our area for minor flooding. Mostly snow is forecast over our Adirondack Counties.

21 Thu, Dec. 5 am Change: Southern Litchfield - Winter Weather Advisory Flood Watch

22 Thu, Dec. 5 am NWS Albany forecast storm ice accumulation (ending 1 PM Friday)

23 Thu, Dec. 5 am NWS Albany forecast storm total liquid equivalent (ending 1 PM Friday)

24 Thu, Dec. 5 am NWS Albany forecast storm total snowfall (ending 1 PM Friday)

25 IWT Scenario 2 Thu, Dec. 5 am Summary: A significant winter storm is expected to impact the NWS Albany forecast area Today into Friday. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are forecast. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations are still forecast to be inch across a narrowing area. Numerous long-lived power outages still expected. An Ice Storm Warning is in effect for most of the southern half of our area. A flood watch continues for the southern third of our area for minor flooding. Mostly snow is forecast over our Adirondack Counties.

26 IWT Scenario 2 NWS Albany Weather Update Thursday Dec 11, PM

27 IWT Scenario 2 Thu, Dec. 1 pm Overview: A significant winter storm will impact the NWS Albany forecast area today into tomorrow. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are forecast. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations are still forecast to be inch across central and eastern areas. Numerous long-lived power outages still expected. Winds are forecast to be from the north or northeast at MPH or less for the duration of the event. A flood watch continues for the southern third of our area for minor flooding. Mostly snow is forecast over our Adirondack Counties.

28 IWT Scenario 2 Thu, Dec. 1 pm Snow Mix Latest Radar Image

29 Thu, Dec. 1 pm Winter Weather Flood Watch

30 Thu, Dec. 1 pm NWS Albany forecast storm total snowfall (ending 1 PM Friday)

31 Thu, Dec. 1 pm NWS Albany forecast storm ice accumulation (ending 1 PM Friday)

32 Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index

33 Thu, Dec. 1 pm NWS Albany forecast storm total liquid equivalent (ending 1 PM Friday)

34 IWT Scenario 2 Thu, Dec. 1 pm Summary: A significant winter storm will impact the NWS Albany forecast area Today into Tomorrow. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are forecast. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations are still forecast to be inch across central and eastern areas. Numerous long-lived power outages still expected. A flood watch continues for the southern third of our area for minor flooding. Mostly snow is forecast over our Adirondack Counties. **Last Conference Call**

35 IWT Scenario 2 What Happened?

36 IWT Scenario 2 What Happened? Large Multi-Hazard storm of December 11-12, Produced moderate to heavy snow over the Adirondacks, Moderate Flooding over Litchfield County, CT. and 0.5 to 1.0 inch ice accumulation across much of eastern New York and Western New England. Power Outages lasted up to a week in some locations including local area. Widespread home damage from fallen trees and when sump pump batteries failed during prolonged power outages. Widespread debris clean up from fallen trees. Most schools closed Friday. Many closed Monday too.

37 IWT Scenario 2 Total Liquid Precipitation

38 IWT Scenario 2 Moderate Flooding along Housatonic River

39 IWT Scenario 2 Storm Total Freezing Rain (Glaze)

40 IWT Scenario 2 Storm Total Snowfall

41 IWT Scenario 2 Freezing Rain (Glaze)

42 Weather Prediction Center: IWT Scenario 2 Discussion Probabilistic Snowfall Graphics: Probabilistic Freezing Rain (Glaze) Accumulation Graphics: Probabilistic Rainfall Graphics: Meteorological Model Ensemble River Forecasts: NWS Flood/Hydrology/Drought Page: Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index (combination of ice and wind):

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