Dispersion modelling and warnings for volcanic ash in the Australian Region
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1 Dispersion modelling and warnings for volcanic ash in the Australian Region R Potts, R Dare, E Jansons, C Lucas, A Tupper, M Zidikheri The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
2 Volcanic ash hazard for aviation Galunggung Volcano - BA009 ash encounter 24 June 1982
3 Pinatubo 12 June 1991, 0600 UTC NOAA11 AVHRR satellite data The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
4 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
5 Science / technical challenges What concentration is a hazard Timely report / detection of eruption / ash cloud Satellite detection of volcanic ash Discrimination of ash from water/ice ** Vis / IR data MTSAT-2, AVHRR, MODIS IR channel difference (T 11 -T 12 ) Missed detections False alarms Navigation errors Sensor response function Spatial / temporal resolution Measurement precision Calibration Channel registration Dispersion models Source term definition MER, height, PSD, mass distribution, aggregation [assume a gas] Uncertainties in base NWP model [ACCESS] Uncertainties in dispersion model [HYSPLIT] Utilisation / visualisation of output Timely issue of volcanic ash warnings More automation The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
6 Ruang volcano - 25 September 2002, 0345 UTC GMS5 satellite data, 25 Sept 2002, 0930 UTC The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
7 Ruang volcano - 25 September 2002, 0345 UTC Ruang volcano - 25 September 2002, 1000 UTC The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
8 Volcanic Ash Warning Preparation System (VAWS) Interactive user interface to streamline preparation of volcanic ash warnings Integrated environment for display of satellite, dispersion model and delineation of analysed and forecast threat areas Generation of VAA + VAG Stable framework for implementation of improved analysis and forecast methodologies Platform independence
9 Volcanic Ash Warning Preparation System (VAWS) VA ADVISORY DTG: /0313Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Ruang = PSN: N0218 E12522 AREA: Sangihe Is-Indonesia SUMMIT ELEV: 725M ADVISORY NR: 2012/2 INFO SOURCE: report of eruption AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL ERUPTION DETAILS: eruption of volcano OBS VA DTG: 03/0300Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL200 N0205 E N0150 E N0210 E N0235 E N0320 E N0245 E N0205 E12555 FL200/550 N0205 E N0300 E N0240 E N0155 E N0115 E N0115 E N0205 E12305 FCST VA CLD +6HR: 03/0900Z SFC/FL200 N0235 E N0130 E N0335 E N0515 E N0400 E N0235 E12755 FL200/550 N0220 E S0105 E S0020 E N0335 E N0335 E N0220 E12515 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 03/1500Z SFC/FL200 N0650 E N0525 E N0235 E N0200 E N0405 E N0405 E N0545 E N0545 E N0650 E12625 FL200/550 N0310 E S0105 E S0455 E S0410 E N0135 E N0445 E N0410 E N0310 E12530 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 03/2100Z SFC/FL200 N0720 E N0720 E N0745 E N0320 E N0150 E N0425 E N0425 E N0635 E N0720 E12525 FL200/550 N0355 E S0120 E S0850 E S0820 E S0025 E N0330 E N0520 E N0355 E12505 RMK: Graphic at [lower case] NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0900Z
10 Improved Volcanic Ash Detection and Prediction Eyjafjallajökull Mar 2010; Merapi Nov 2010; Cordon-Caulle Jun 2011 Improve satellite remote sensing Improve ash detection - plume height, mass loading GEOCAT Better quantify uncertainties HIMAWARI-8 Japanese geostationary satellite operational 2015 Dispersion modelling Better quantify sensitivities and uncertainties what is "truth" Source term parameters plume height, particle size distribution, MER Initiation with distal ash cloud Inverse modelling more effective use of satellite data and dispersion model Ensemble forecasts probabilistic forecasts AGREPS Model intercomparisons HYSPSLIT / UKMO NAME Improved microphysics VAWS application improve functionality, replacement system Operationalization 'Best Practice' Workshops The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
11 Cordon-Caulle eruption 4 Jun 2011 MTSAT m brightness temp difference 0632 UTC, 21 Jun Also shown are close CALIPSO overpasses 0448 UTC and 0625 UTC
12 Cordon-Caulle eruption 4 Jun UTC CALIPSO overpass
13 Paluweh Eruption 2027 UTC, 9 August /2232Z 09/2332Z 10/0032Z 10/0132Z MTSAT-2 visible imagery
![Paluweh Eruption 2027 UTC, 9 August 2013 POSSIBLE VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD FOUND Alert Status: Newly detected feature Latitude of Radiative Center: -8.034 [degrees] Longitude of Radiative Center: 120.](/docs-images/86/94159547/images/14-1.jpg "767 [degrees] Mean Viewing Angle: 30.03 [degrees] Mean Solar Zenith Angle: 57.48 [degrees] Nearby Volcanoes (meeting alert criteria): Ranakah(70.53 km) Poco Leok(78.79 km) Inielika(81.")
14 Paluweh Eruption 2027 UTC, 9 August 2013 POSSIBLE VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD FOUND Alert Status: Newly detected feature Latitude of Radiative Center: [degrees] Longitude of Radiative Center: [degrees] Mean Viewing Angle: [degrees] Mean Solar Zenith Angle: [degrees] Nearby Volcanoes (meeting alert criteria): Ranakah(70.53 km) Poco Leok(78.79 km) Inielika(81.43 km) Inierie(95.79 km) Ebulobo(98.47 km) Cloud Object Probability: [%] Mean Probability of Object Pixels: [%] Percent Unambiguous Pixels: [%] Maximum Height [AMSL]: 7.2 [km] ( [ft]) 1-sigma Uncertainty of Maximum Height [AMSL]: 8.6 [km] ( [ft]) Mean Tropopause Height [AMSL]: 16.4 [km] ( [ft]) Total Mass:.4120 [ktons] Median Effective Particle Radius: 9.60 [um] Total Area: [km^2]
15 Initiation of HYSPLIT with distal ash cloud
16 Initiation of HYSPLIT with distal ash cloud VA ADVISORY DTG: /0255Z VAAC: Darwin VOLCANO: Merapi = PSN: S0732 E11026 AREA: Java SUMMIT ELEV: 2968M ADVISORY NR: 2012/3 INFO SOURCE: report AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL ERUPTION DETAILS: eruption OBS VA DTG: 08/0245Z OBS VA CLD: FL150/450 S0950 E S1010 E S1845 E S1730 E S0950 E08735 FCST VA CLD +6HR: 08/0845Z FL150/450 S0935 E S1000 E S2235 E S1725 E S0935 E08630 FCST VA CLD +12HR: 08/1445Z FL150/450 S0935 E S0920 E S2205 E S2630 E S2540 E S1735 E S0935 E08535 FCST VA CLD +18HR: 08/2045Z FL150/450 S0930 E S0930 E S1950 E S2810 E S2945 E S2720 E S0930 E08445 RMK: Graphic at [lower case] NXT ADVISORY: NO LATER THAN /0845Z
17 Inverse modelling Use of satellite data to optimise current model Minimise function f ( 1, 2, 3... n) 1 r( 1, 2, 3... n) [r is pattern correlation between observation (X) and simulation (Y). λ represents HYSPLIT model parameters.] Merapi Nov 2010 event - OMI sulphur dioxide data One-dimensional version of inverse model with source height as the variable (other model parameters are specified) height (km) Nov 4 Nov 5 Nov 6 Nov 7 Nov r
18 Point source model
19 Point source model
20 Next steps Welcome collaboration with others working on volcanic ash More evaluation of satellite data processing algorithms Uncertainties in detection and retrieved parameters Better physical representation of ash in dispersion model Uncertainties in meteorology, source term and physical processes Probabilistic forecasts Need for integrated use of satellite and model data Translate research outcomes to operations Product development The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
21 The End The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
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