NOAA s National Weather Service VAAC Anchorage. Don Moore

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Eugene Marshall
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1 NOAA s National Weather Service VAAC Anchorage Don Moore VAAC Best Practices Workshop May 2015

2 Volcanic Eruptions

3 Volcanic Eruptions

4 Volcanic Eruptions

5 VAAC Anchorage and Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) Service Changes Improved handover procedures with VAAC Tokyo VAAC Anchorage and AAWU went through a major modernization of operations, allowing for greater focus on graphical information and decision support services Focus has been on AAWU operations with benefits to VAAC operations Sets stage for expanding decision support services (work in progress) Automated satellite based volcanic alerts introduced into VAAC Anchorage operations has improved services Partnership with Alaska Volcano Observatory has resulted in improved delivery of tools to monitor volcanic ash 5

6 Service Changes Improved Handover and Collaboration Procedures with VAAC Tokyo 6

7 Service Changes More frequent alerting to VAAs issued by VAAC Tokyo AREA: KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SUMMIT ELEV: FT (3283 M) ADVISORY NR: 2015/201 INFO SOURCE: MT-SAT/GOES/POES AVIATION COLOR CODE: ORANGE ERUPTION DETAILS: VA FM 0415/0306 UTC ERUPTION. OBS VA DTG: 15/1440Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL230 N5924 E N5943 E N5732 E N5723 E N5924 E17526 MOV ENE 45KT. FCST VA CLD +6HR: 15/2040Z SFC/FL230 N5944 E N5947 W N5744 E N5732 E N5944 E N5944 E FCST VA CLD +12HR: 16/0240Z NO VA EXP. FCST VA CLD +18HR: 16/0840Z NO VA EXP. AREA: KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SUMMIT ELEV: FT (3283 M) ADVISORY NR: 2015/203 INFO SOURCE: MT-SAT/GOES AVIATION COLOR CODE: ORANGE ERUPTION DETAILS: VA FROM 15/0306Z ERUPTION. OBS VA DTG: 15/2118Z OBS VA CLD: SFC/FL230 N5944 W N5943 W N5740 W N5728 E N5944 W17922 MOV ENE 45KT. FCST VA CLD +6HR: 16/0318Z SFC/FL230 N5655 W N6009 W N6004 W N5654 W N5655 W N5655 W FCST VA CLD +12HR: 16/0918Z NO VA EXP. FCST VA CLD +18HR: 16/1518Z NO VA EXP. RMK: VAAC TOKYO HAS TRANSFERRED RESPONSIBILITY OF THIS EVENT TO VAAC ANCHORAGE. THIS ADVISORY UPDATES MESSAGE FVFE01 RJTD. VA SIGNAL NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT FADING SOME. RMK: ADDITIONAL ERUPTIONS HAVE OCCURRED. PLEASE SEE FVFE01 RJTD ISSUED BY TOKYO VAAC WHICH DESCRIBES CONDITIONS NEAR THE ANCHORAGE VAAC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. 7

@**********VOLCANIC ALERTS********** STARTING DATE/TIME OF IMAGE: 2013-05-18 13:38:51 [UTC] PRIMARY INSTRUMENT: Aqua MODIS WMO SPACECRAFT ID: 784 LOCATION/ORBIT: LEO

8 @**********VOLCANIC ALERTS********** STARTING DATE/TIME OF IMAGE: :38:51 [UTC] PRIMARY INSTRUMENT: Aqua MODIS WMO SPACECRAFT ID: 784 LOCATION/ORBIT: LEO /data/common/volcat_data/alerts/volcat_alert_ Volcano_Database_May14_2013_ txt NUMBER OF ASH CLOUD ALERTS: 1 NUMBER OF VOLCANIC Cb ALERTS: 0 NUMBER OF VOLCANIC THREMAL ANOMALY ALERTS: 0 NUMBER OF SO2 CLOUD ALERTS: 0 REPORT WITH IMAGES: POSSIBLE VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD FOUND Alert Status: Newly detected feature Latitude of Radiative Center: [degrees] Longitude of Radiative Center: [degrees] Maximum Height [AMSL]: 3.9 [km] ( [ft]) Service Changes Automated Satellite Detected Volcanic Ash Alerts Routinely Provided starting June

9 VolcView Interface - freely available and useful for collaboration Image Selection Overlays Temperature Profile Image Control Wind Trajectory Annotation volcview.wr.usgs.gov 9

10 VolcView Display Volcviewer 10

11 Service Changes Web based display of satellite information, Temperature readout volcview.wr.usgs.gov MTSAT - Brightness Temperature Difference MTSAT Infrared 11

12 Service Changes Web based display of satellite information, Forward Trajectory volcview.wr.usgs.gov 12

Altitude (ft.) Above sea level 5,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Service Changes Web based display of satellite information, Backward Trajectory volcview.wr.usgs.gov Altitude (ft.

13 Altitude (ft.) Above sea level 5,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Service Changes Web based display of satellite information, Backward Trajectory volcview.wr.usgs.gov Altitude (ft.) Above sea level 5,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Altitude (ft.) Above sea level 5,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 10,000 Feet trajectory match 20,000 Feet trajectory match Courtesy David Schneider, Ph.D - U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Volcano Observatory > 20,000 Feet trajectory match 13

14 Future Challenges Continue improving handover and collaborative decision analysis and forecasts efforts with VAAC Tokyo Greatly improved volcanic ash detection through Himawari and GOES R (2017) will increase the level of information that should be communicated VAAs/VAGs are limited in communicating complexity of information such as varying levels of ash cloud heights from separate eruptions Ash modeling, especially as it pertains to dissipation, will not see as drastic of a jump in improvements Improved satellite data will increase confidence levels with regards to current ash locations, while longer lead-time forecasts will see less improvements in confidence levels 14

15 Effectively Communicating the Hazard 15

16 Effectively Communicating the Hazard 2 nd Eruption 16

17 Effectively Communicating the Hazard 17

18 Effectively Communicating the Hazard Observed FL370? 18

19 Effectively Communicating the Hazard Observed FL200 Observed FL370 19

20 Effectively Communicating the Hazard Observed FL200 Observed FL370 20

21 Thank you Questions? 21

Dispersion modelling and warnings for volcanic ash in the Australian Region

Dispersion modelling and warnings for volcanic ash in the Australian Region R Potts, R Dare, E Jansons, C Lucas, A Tupper, M Zidikheri The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership