Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center

Transcription

1 How a Volcanic Ash Advisory and a Dispersion Forecast is Prepared: Jamie Kibler Washington VAAC Operations Manger/Meteorologist October 25, 2011 ICAO Seminar on Volcanic Ash Products and Communications for the NAM/CAR/SAM Regions October 24-26, 2012

2 Chaitén, 3 May 2008 Many costly and life-threatening encounters of aircraft with airborne ash clouds and airport disruptions have occurred over the decades Eruption warnings, ash-cloud tracking, and education have prevented disasters Quito, 2002

3 Advising airlines to avoid flying through ash clouds - Ash is severely abrasive to sensitive jet engine parts - Volcanic ash melts and consolidates on essential aviation parts - Can lead to erroneous readings and potential engine failure Left: Damage done to windscreen of a plane that encountered ash. It is nearly opaque. Right: Damage done to grounded plane. Not only did the ash weigh down the plane, but it also did heavy structural damage, as well

4 What does the Washington VAAC use/need to disseminate a Volcanic Ash Advisory

5 Satellite Imagery GOES, POES, MTSAT & Meteosat shortwave IR GOES, POES, MTSAT + Meteosat Visible GOES PCI (Principle Component Image ) GOES, POES, MTSAT & Meteosat IR Washington VAAC MODIS AQUA-TERRA Satellite Imagery very important piece to the puzzle GOES & POES CIRA products GOES, POES & MTSAT Channel Differencing Product GOES & POES Ellrod Product Overlays Boundaries Countries, Airspaces Winds Cloud motion, models, soundings, and streamlines Volcano locations HYSPLIT model output

6 February 11, 2010 Eruption of Soufriere Hills

7 Incoming Information (non-satellite) Cable TV Weather Observations PIREPs News reports phone, FAA AFTN to GTS, FOS GTS, FOS Airlines Phone Washington VAAC Numerical Weather & Dispersion Models , Phone Volcano cameras Volcanologists (Observatories, USGS, Smithsonian) SIGMETs, MWOs GTS, FOS, Phone, fax **Also very important piece to the puzzle variety of Internet sites GTS, Phone other VAACs Infrasound data Abbreviations: AFTN=Aeronautical Fixed FOS=Family of Services Telecommunications Network GTS=Global Telecommunication System ATC=Air Traffic Control USGS=U.S. Geological Survey

8 WVMX31 MMEX MMEX SIGMET 3 VALID / MMEX MEXICO FIR/UIR/SRR VA POPOCATEPETL N W OBS AT Z VERTICAL CLD VA UP TO FL200 FM SUMMIT EXTD 5NM W BTW FL180 FL200 MOV W 10KT. WKN. OUTLK DISSIPATED AT Z= VAAC received informacion from MWO

9 Proyecto Vigilancia said the following on 4/25/ :10: Cordial saludo Para informarles que hoy 24 de abril de 2009, el Volcán Galeras hizo una erupción explosiva a las 19:32 LT (00:32 UTC del día 25 de abril) se observó una columna de aproximadamente 6 km de altura sobre la cima y se observó salida de material piroclástico incandescente. Patricia Ponce Observatorio Vulcanológico de Pasto -- Grupo de Sismologia INGEOMINAS - Pasto INGEOMINAS: Centro Regional Pasto: Tel: +57 (27) s and Observatory Reports

10 Simplified volcano warning information flow to aviation in Ecuador Aviation community PIREPS Instituto Geofisico VOLCANIC ASH ALERTS Washington VAAC SIGMET NOTAM Guayaquil MWO Call to MWO

11 What does the Washington VAAC use/need to create a Volcanic Ash Forecast

12 Running the HYSPLIT Model HYSPLIT Forecast Step 1 The Washington VAAC provides volcanic ash information to the NCEP Senior Duty Meteorologist to run the Forecast Model Information provided is: Location of the Volcano Eruption time Eruption duration Estimated height of volcanic ash Information is fed into the HYSPLIT model with the GFS or NAM model used for meteorological conditions.

13 HYSPLIT Forecast Step 2 The Senior Duty Meteorologist provides the volcano analyst with three different scenarios and the analyst must choose: The three different scenarios: Level 1 Ash reduction most ash taken out after + 00 and + 06 hrs Level 2 Ash reduction moderate amount ash taken out after + 00 hrs Level 3 Ash reduction Very little ash taken out after + 00 hrs and + 06 hrs The volcano analyst can also use past historical events to help with forecast Forecast may be updated whenever is needed New information arriving

14 HYSPLIT - Transport and Dispersion Model

15 HYSPLIT Model (1hr and 2hr time steps)

16 NCEP Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (N-AWIPS)

17 Washington VAAC Website:

18 Thanks! Any Questions Jamie Washington VAAC and Telephone