European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation

Transcription

1 European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation Marcus Hirtl (ZAMG) + the EUNADICS-AV Team

2 Background Eyjafjallajökull eruption April May 2010 Aviation is one of the most critical infrastructures of the 21st century, where short interruptions can cause significant economic damage. Due to the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, 100,000 flights were cancelled in total.

3 Background Eyjafjallajökull eruption April May 2010 Aviation is one of the most critical infrastructures of the 21st century, where short interruptions can cause significant economic damage. Due to the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, 100,000 flights were cancelled in total.

4 Background

5 Objectives The project EUNADICS-AV undertakes to develop and test a unique system to provide consistent and coherent information to aviation authorities, airlines and pilots in the event of a natural disaster affecting the airspace, which, if successful, would greatly enhance the resilience of one of the most critical infrastructures of the 21st century.

6 Focus The following natural disasters are included: Volcanic eruptions Nuclear Accidents and Incidents Forest Fires Sand Storms

7 Project ZAMG lead, 21 Partners (12 countries), Budget 7.4 Mio ( ) It includes National Meteorological Services, Monitoring data providers, Operational Volcanologists, SME s, a University institute, an Air Navigation Service provider and a Military Organization. From Austria: ZAMG, Austro Control, Univ. Salzburg, Flightkeys, BMLVS, BRIMATECH

8 Disasters: Background A lot has changed over the last decades

9 Disasters: Current situation but there are remaining issues! Data from different networks, partly research activities, not harmonized Lack of coordination with regard to special crisis measurements Issues with data availability and distribution Models/analysis instruments not optimized with regard to data flood during crisis Not all stakeholders performing forecasts have access to high-quality analysis This gap in data/information availability needs to be closed!

10 The EUNADICS-AV solution Started to combine and harmonize data from satellite earth observation, ground based and airborne platforms Started to integrate data into state-of-the art data assimilation and analysis systems Will make data and data analysis products available to all stakeholders (VAACs, RSMCs, National Met Services, Airlines, Pilots) through existing channels

11 Dissemination concept Project results and show cases of the data products are disseminated and exploited via the EUNADICS-AV portal. The products will be provided through stakeholder specific interfaces and as INSPIRE compliant web services. Specific target groups (aviation community, EACCC, intermediate users as VAACs) are addressed by different communication channels: NMSs/VAACs/RSMCs: through ECMWF dissemination system Airlines: through EUROCONTROL/EVITA system Science community: GEO/GEOSS For pilots, passengers and the general public, a EUNADICS-AV portal is built up

12 Observations Ansmann et al., 2010 Mona et al., 2012 Pappalardo et al., 2013 Research airborne campaigns allowed the characterization of the plume Flentje et al., amtd 2010 Ceilometer network demonstrated the capability to effectively track aerosol layers

13 Tailored products Improve the discrimination between volcanic ash and other types of aerosols or meteorological clouds. Determine plume heights (ash and SO 2 ), with information given at flight levels. Retrieve volcanic ash mass loadings. Include high temporal resolution measurements from geostationary platforms. Include polar orbiting measurements with better spatial resolution. Expand the system with key measurements from the ground, notably using Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar) and ceilometers measurements, as well as near-source parameters from volcanic observatories and radionuclidesdata. Tailored GB product under development from ACTRIS/EARLINET network for the NRT identification of desert dust/ash observations. Example of a tailored satellite products for the aviation hazards. The Figure shows the ash identification made by the RST-ASH algorithm using the Himawari geostationary data.

14 New generation observations Comparison of the SO 2 plume on 7 April 2018 (Ambae eruption) of OMI (upper left), GOME-2 (bottom left) with TROPOMI S5P (right).

15 Early Warning System The EUNADICS-AV Early Warning System addresses the need for an early notification system for multi-hazards to aviation about volcanic ash and SO2 plumes, sandstorms, dust clouds, aerosols produced from forest fires, and radioactive plumes. The objectives of the EUNADICS-AV EWS notifications are: 1) to enhance situation awareness in case of a crisis situation 2) to trigger atmospheric transport and dispersion models of forecasts/analyses 3) to facilitate the transfer of required relevant information to end-users

16 Early Warning System - example All available data Single platform Harmonized Real time Thresholds

17 Modeling applications How to combine observations and model fields into an estimate of the atmospheric state? Meteorological / chemical DA for forecasting and reanalysis Model state estimation Where is the source of the observed toxic pollutant? or How much was emitted during the volcanic eruption? Inverse problems related to individual sources indirect observations a-priori knowledge on the inversion target may be required Model integration in EUNADICS-AV aims at: Developing prototype products useful to assess these hazards Reducing uncertainty by assimilation of observations Assessing uncertainty using ensemble of model outputs

18 Modeling applications Data assimilation example: Top: analyis of total ash Bottom: difference beteween Ensemble example: SO2 concentration of the median (50% quantile) ensemble members between FL Other quantiles (75%) to be computed) will provide an indication of the uncertainty around this median scenario. 99% quantile concentration: where there is 1% risk the concentration value is exceeded

19 Cost based avoidance Example trajectories for flight Paris Athens, sorted by total cost: A (blue) passes through low concentration - lowest total cost B (green) passes both low and medium - lowest fuel/time cost C (magenta) avoids contamination entirely - lowest maintenance cost A and C are almost equal, but. without dose-based avoidance, traffic bottlenecks would develop around contaminated airspace. These bottlenecks can create considerable delay and thus cost.

20 Evaluation A workflow of the EUNADICS-AV reaction chain is developed for the planned EUNADICS-AV exercises and will be constantly improved and refined due to actual EUNADICS-AV project input EUNADICS-AV Exercises Reaction Chain The tracer experiment was conducted, that results can be integrated in the EUNADICS-AV exercises. The experiment took place in Germany and Austria where small amounts of an inert tracer gas were released into the atmosphere and transported by the wind. Altogether 3 planes with specific measurement devices, a Learjet commissioned by the DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, the German Aerospace Center), a PC6 from the Austrian Air Force and DA42 from the University Düsseldorf, were flying through the regions of the dispersed tracer gas to measure its distribution. EUNADICS-AV Tracer Experiment Image: DLR Images: DLR Image: BMLVS

21 Evaluation - Exercise OUR HAZARD EVENTS: Event 1: Etna eruption. Artificial observations from Observatory on Sicily and satellite data will be used (produced by FMI). The following 3 days will be considered (in a nutshell): DAY1) right after the eruption, detection and early warning (impact air traffic to/from/around Sicily) DAY2) when ash cloud is over central EU (flight re-routing, cancellation) DAY3) no significant ash anymore (normal air traffic starts again). Event 2: Accident in a nuclear power plant. The observations obtained from the TRACER experiment will be used for this as well as artificial ground observations for early warning and source term inversion.

22 Conclusions and outlook There is still ongoing progress on the compilation of the end products, and the setting up/testing of the EWS. The added value to the current state of the art is that within EUNADICS-AV: Observational data and model applications are combined to improve the 4-dimensional representation of aerosols and radio nuclides Source term inversion and data assimilation will be used to support the quality of the products Ensembles of different models allow to specify also the uncertainties, which will provide more information with regards to what is currently available. With the successful execution of EUNADICS-AV, the prerequisites for a large-scale demonstration as well as future system deployment will be created

23 Supporting safe air traffic