IAVW. International PAPER WORKING. reports SUMMARY. is in paragraph 1.1. France providing 1.2. (6 pages) (IAVWOPSG))

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1 International Civil Aviation Organization IAVWOPSG/7-WP/25 22/1/ /13 WORKING PAPER INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONS GROUP (IAVWOPSG)) SEVENTH MEETING Bangkok, Thailand, 18 to 22 March 2013 Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVW 5.1: Implementationn of the IAVW, including g the IAVW management reports VAAC TOULOUSE MANAGEMENT REPORT (Presented by France) SUMMARY This paper presents the IAVW Management report for VAAC Toulouse for the period June 2011 November Action by the IAVWOPSG is in paragraph INTRODUCTION 1.1 France has accepted, by regional air navigation agreement, the responsibility for providing a VAAC within the framework of the international airways volcano watch (IAVW) for continental Europe, Africa, the Middle East and a large part of Indian Ocean, as well as for the western part of Asia. VAAC Toulouse is operated by the aviationn weather department which is part of the National Forecast Centre of MeteoFrance in Toulouse, working in close collaboration with the Direction of Information Systems for the information exchange aspects The area of responsibility of VAAC Toulouse encompasses 192 flight information regions (FIRs) on three continents and five different air navigation regions (EUR, NAT, MID, AFI and ASIA). VAAC Toulouse has common borders with six other VAACs in both hemispheres (namely Buenos Aires, Darwin, London, Montréal, Tokyoo and Washington). (6 pages) IAVWOPSG.7.WP docx

2 IAVWOPSG/7-WP/ OPERATIONS OF THE VAAC 2.1 Issuance of volcanic ash advisories Operational advisories From June 2011 to November 2012, VAAC Toulouse issued 177 operational volcanic ash advisories (VAA)/volcanic ash advisories in graphical format (VAG): Exercise advisories a) 71 VAA/VAG for Cordon Caulle (Chile); b) 55 VAA/VAG for Etna (Italy); c) 42 VAA/VAG for Nabro (Eritrea); d) 6 VAA/VAG for Nyamuragira (Democratic Republic of the Congo); e) 1 VAA/VAG for Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of the Congo); f) 1 VAA/VAG for Stromboli (Italy); and g) 1 VAA/VAG for an unknown volcano (Red Sea) From June 2011 to November 2012, VAAC Toulouse issued 11 test/exercise VAA/VAG: a) 7 VAA/VAG issued for Furnas (Azores) for EUR/NAT VOLCEX12/01; b) 2 VAA issued for ASIA/PAC volcanic ash SIGMET routine test; and c) 2 VAA issued for AFI volcanic ash SIGMET routine test. 2.2 Significant eruptions in the VAAC area In June 2011, just a few days after Grimsvötn had returned to a quiet state, an eruption occurred from Cordon Caulle (Chile). The volcanic ash cloud reached the VAAC Toulouse area of responsibility on 6 June On 13 June 2011 an eruption from the Nabro (Eritrea) started, resulting in VAAC Toulouse having to deal with two eruptions for a number of days, and with three when the Etna emitted small puffs on 16 June In July 2011, while Nabro continued to be active, Etna had a succession of small eruptions In 2012, volcanic activity in the VAAC Toulouse area was weaker, with mainly shortduration eruptions from Etna with limited impact.

3 - 3 - IAVWOPSG/7-WP/ Significant operation or technical changes VAAC Toulouse is one of the end users of the European Volcano Observatory Space Services (EVOSS) project in the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (FP7). One objective of this project is to provide the VAAC in near real-time with quantitative information calculated from radiometric and spectrometric measurements of polar orbiting satellites or geostationary Meteosat9. The whole set of data is not yet calculated, but some are already available on the EVOSS web portal A service provided by EUMETSAT is available to provide VAAC Toulouse with quantitative data from Meteosat in near real-time. The values are the mean particle radius (m), the cloud top altitude (ft or km) and the load mass (g/m 2 ). Such information may also be available from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2.4 VAAC back-up VAAC London and VAAC Toulouse are mutual back-ups A bilateral meeting with VAAC London was organized in Toulouse on the day following a EUR/NAT VOLCEX13/01 planning meeting. Operating modes from the two VAACs were exchanged and a back-up test is planned for A visit of VAACs by the other VAAC forecasters will be organized in early Southern hemisphere VAAC coordination The need for better coordination tools between VAACs was identified during the 2011 Cordon Caulle eruption when the same volcanic ash cloud circumnavigated the globe. Four VAACs (Buenos Aires, Darwin, Toulouse and Wellington) areas of responsibility were impacted by the eruption Due to their respective satellite watch capabilities, each VAAC had to produce volcanic ash advisories for their own area. Inconsistencies at the border between adjacent VAACs appeared on some occasions A template for a text and a graphic in support of the exchange of information between neighbouring VAACs has been developed with the collaboration of VAACs Buenos Aires, Darwin, Toulouse and Wellington. A Southern Hemisphere Ash Propagation Exercise (SHAPE), aiming at testing these tools and the benefit for VAAC coordination, is planned for the first quarter of Volcanic exercises (VOLCEX) In 2012, a two-day EUR/NAT volcanic exercise (VOLCEX12/01) was conducted for a simulated eruption from the Azores VAAC Toulouse was the lead VAAC in this exercise and got the first opportunity to test the processing of (simulated) special air-reports sent by operators by the forecasters to improve VAAs. This part of exercise was very successful from the VAAC s perspective and four amended VAAs were issued taking into account all consistent reports.

4 IAVWOPSG/7-WP/ IAVW IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES 3.1 In connection with a continuing EUR/NAT region-specific requirement for modelled ash concentration charts, the need for insuring consistency between these charts based on fixed values and thresholds, and VAA/VAG based on satellite, such aspects have led to a change in the operating mode of VAAC Toulouse forecasters. 3.2 As most operators safety risk procedures are not to fly in visible ash but to fly in forecasted concentrations lower than 0.2 mg/m 3, there is an assumption for users that such concentrations (corresponding to the blue zone in concentration charts) are not visible. 3.3 As the thresholds established in the rush of the 2010 crisis have not yet been validated, the scientific reality of this assumption is highly questionable, but concretely, operations in case of volcanic ash contamination in Europe are based on this number. Furthermore, it will probably be so until the amendment of the EUR/NAT volcanic ash contingency plan, which should only occur at the end of Given the uncertainty linked to the source term used in dispersion modelling to get these concentrations, VAAC Toulouse s new approach is to change the source term as necessary so that the blue zone (considered a non-danger zone from the operator s perspective) matches the area outside the ash cloud depicted in the first figure of the VAG. 3.5 The VAAC Toulouse forecaster has to run a first-time MOCAGE dispersion model with default source term based on plume height, then compare with the satellite and modify the source term in order to match the grey zone at T0 and the satellite observation as much as possible. 3.6 This process implies a longer time for VAA production but is the only way to allow the operator to have products usable in the same way according to their safety risk assessment procedure, and to insure seamless possible use of concentration charts in EUR/NAT and VAG in other air navigation regions. 4. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS 4.1 MeteoFrance has planned to create a network of 10 to 15 dual-polarization LIDARs with a vertical range over 12 km in the French metropolitan area in order to collect data on aerosols such as volcanic ash. This project started in 2012 by the acquisition of three LIDARs dual-polarization, and a validation and comparison phase with other LIDARs for an operational network implementation between 2013 and MeteoFrance, in collaboration with the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) and the Centre National d Etudes Spatiales (CNES) operates the three instrumented aircraft of the Airborne Environment Research Services (SAFIRE) unit. In particular, the fleet includes an ATR-42 capable of providing in-situ microphysics measurements of high interest as a complement to groundbased LIDARs. 4.3 On request, the ATR-42 can be equipped with relevant sensors and fly through a suspected or observed ash area. Depending on its availability (the aircraft may already be engaged in another measurement campaign), the notice between the request and the effective flight could be around two days. In 2010, a request on Saturday led to a flight on Monday evening.

5 - 5 - IAVWOPSG/7-WP/ A validation of ground-based LIDAR by in-situ aircraft measurement from the ATR-42 was successfully achieved during the HYMEX campaign in September 2012 near Candillargues (south of France). 5. PARTICIPATION OF VAAC TOULOUSE IN INTERNATIONAL MEETINGS AND WORKSHOPS SINCE IAVWOPSG/6 a) European Volcano Observatory Space Services (EVOSS) Progress Meeting (IPGP, Paris, 19 October 2011, P Husson); b) ICAO West AFI (WAFI) Workshop on Volcanic Ash and SIGMETs (Douala, 29 and 30 November 2011, P Husson); c) European and North Atlantic Volcanic Ash Exercises Steering Group (VOLCEXSG8), and Volcanic Exercise Planning Meeting (VOLCEX12/01) (Lisbon, 5 to 7 December 2011, P Husson, P Simon); d) General Assembly Weather Hazard (WEZARD) (WMO, Geneva, 14 and 15 December 2011, P Husson); e) First VAAC Best Practices Seminar (ICAO HQ, Montreal, 13 and 14 February 2012, P Simon, P Husson); f) Third Meeting of the International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF/3) (ICAO HQ, Montreal, 15 to 17 February 2012, P Simon, P Husson); g) Crisis Management Workshop (Eurocontrol, 22 and 23 May 2012, P Husson); h) VOLCEX12/01 debrief (Bodo, CAA, 30 May and 1 June 2012, P Simon, P Husson); i) Second VAAC Best Practices Seminar (ICAO HQ, Montreal, 12 and 13 June 2012, P Simon, P Husson) j) Fourth Meeting of the International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF/4) (ICAO HQ, Montreal, 13 to 15 June 2012, P Simon, P Husson) k) Twenty-second Meeting of the Meteorology Group of the European Air Navigation Planning Group (EANPG/METG22) (Paris, 4 to 7 September 2012, P Simon, P Husson); l) ICAO Cape Verde Special Implementation Project (25 to 28 September 2012, P Husson); m) European Volcano Observatory Space Services (EVOSS) Users Workshop (Nottingham, 2 and 3 October 2012, P Husson); and n) European and North Atlantic Volcanic Ash Exercises Steering Group (VOLCEXSG9) and Volcanic Exercise Planning Meeting (VOLCEX13/01) (MeteoFrance, Toulouse, 19 and 20 November 2012, P Husson, P Simon).

6 IAVWOPSG/7-WP/ ACTION BY THE IAVWOPSG 6.1 The IAVWOPSG is invited to note the information in this paper. END