WORLD AREA FORECAST SYSTEM OPERATIONS GROUP (WAFSOPSG)
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1 WAFSOPSG/7-IP/13 13/9/12 WORLD AREA FORECAST SYSTEM OPERATIONS GROUP (WAFSOPSG) SEVENTH MEETING Lima, Peru, 17 to 21 September 2012 Agenda Item 5: Operation of the WAFS 5.2: Other issues related to the operation and implementation of the WAFS THE STATEMENT ON QUALITY OF WAFC LONDON TEMSI CHARTS USED BY ASECNA/SOME CASE STUDIES (Presented by ASECNA) SUMMARY This working paper deals with the control of the quality of TEMSI charts disseminated through SADIS by WAFC London and used by ASECNA to provide information to airline pilots. The data sets are composed of satellite images and TEMSI charts. The data cover the time period from July to October 2011 and concern Central and West African region over which monsoon generates weather conditions that could keep aviation transport unsafe. The results on elaborated TEMSI charts show between 70 and 80 per cent of cases from fairly good to very good for areas 1 and 2 (05N00 to 20N00; 10W00 to 22E00). Parts of TEMSI charts regarding area 4 (10W00 to 0000; 06S00 to 05N00) are more accurately elaborated (more than 70 per cent of very good cases) whilst 33 per cent of bad cases are observed for area 3 (0000 to 0022E; 06S00 to 05N00). INTRODUCTION Evaluating criteria A simplified crossing method, based on two evaluating criteria from TEMSI charts and two others from observed weather from satellite images is used. The values corresponding to them are indicated in tab 1. (17 pages) WAFSOPSG.7.IP en.docx
2 WAFSOPSG/7-IP/ Weather indication Festooned area content on images Piles of TSRA clouds inside festooned area Few CB inside the festooned area OCNL CB VERY GOOD BAD ISOL CB FAIRLY GOOD GOOD Selection of TEMSI charts and satellite images Forecasters of Agency for Air Navigation Safety in Africa and Madagascar (The) (ASECNA) were invited to select world area forecast centre (WAFC) London TEMSI charts and their corresponding METEOSAT images when rain and thunderstorm were observed at Cotonou airport so that the comparison would be of interest. Twenty seven WAFC London TEMSI charts have been selected and compared with corresponding METEOSAT images. The METEOSAT images selected are indicated in tab.2 as follows: DATES HOURS (UTC) 01/07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/
3 - 3 - WAFSOPSG/7-IP/13 DATES HOURS (UTC) 22/10/ /10/ /10/ Apart from the METEOSAT images selected from the PUMA MSG station, we requested and obtained from EUMETSAT the same images, and owing to all of these materials we drafted this presentation. CRITERIA OF SELECTED AREAS The partition into four areas comes from elements or components that play a role in the apparence of weather conditions for each area.
4 WAFSOPSG/7-IP/ AREA 1 AREA 2 AREA 3 AREA 4 Characterization of the areas The area is influenced by front incursions from North Atlantic, El Nino/La Nina, thermal Saharan low, and monsoon. The area is influenced by thalwegs crossing Central Europe, thermal Saharan low, Libyan anticyclone and monsoon. The area is influenced by Sainte Helene anticyclone and equatorial continental climate. The area is mainly exposed to South Atlantic Ocean influence, El Nino/La Nina, and monsoon. Tab. 3: Results of comparison between satellite images and WAFC London TEMSI charts for Area 1 AREA 1 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC MM/DD VG G FG B VG G FG B VG G FG B VG G FG B 07/01 07/05 07/07 07/10 07/14 09/26 09/30 10/01 10/12 10/18 10/19 10/21 10/22 10/30 10/31 VG : Very Good G : Good FG : Fairly Good B : Bad
5 - 5 - WAFSOPSG/7-IP/13 Evaluations VG G FG B Total OBSERVATIONS FREQUENCY (%) 37,0 25,9 14,8 22,2 100 Tab. 4: Results of comparison between satellite images and WAFC London TEMSI charts for Area 2 AREA 2 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC MM/DD VG G FG B VG G FG B VG G FG B VG G FG B 07/01 07/05 07/07 07/10 07/14 09/26 09/30 10/01 10/12 10/18 10/19 10/21 10/22 10/30 10/31 VG : Very Good G : Good FG : Fairly Good B : Bad
6 WAFSOPSG/7-IP/ Evaluations VG G FG B Total OBSERVATIONS FREQUENCY (%) 55,6 18,5 7,4 18,5 100 Tab. 5: Results of comparison between satellite images and WAFC London TEMSI charts for Area 3. AREA 3 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC MM/DD VG G FG B VG G FG B VG G FG B VG G FG B 07/01 07/05 07/07 07/10 07/14 09/26 09/30 10/01 10/12 10/18 10/19 10/21 10/22 10/30 10/31 VG : Very Good G : Good FG : Fairly Good B : Bad
7 - 7 - WAFSOPSG/7-IP/13 Evaluations VG G FG B Total OBSERVATIONS FREQUENCY (%) 33,3 25,9 7,4 33,3 100 Tab. 6: Results of comparison between satellite images and WAFC London TEMSI charts for Area 4 AREA 4 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC MM/DD VG G FG B VG G FG B VG G FG B VG G FG B 07/01 07/05 07/07 07/10 07/14 09/26 09/30 10/01 10/12 10/18 10/19 10/21 10/22 10/30 10/31 VG : Very Good G : Good FG : Fairly Good B : Bad
8 WAFSOPSG/7-IP/ Evaluations VG G FG B Total Nombre d'observations FREQ 70,4 0,0 11,1 18,5 100,0
9 - 9 - WAFSOPSG/7-IP/13 Some images (05) from the comparison study UTC MSG2-SEVI-MSG NA Z
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11 WAFSOPSG/7-IP/ UTC MSG2-SEVI-MSG NA Z
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13 WAFSOPSG/7-IP/ UTC
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15 WAFSOPSG/7-IP/ UTC
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17 WAFSOPSG/7-IP/ UTC IR108_MSG2-SEVI-MSG NA ACTION BY THE WAFSOPSG 3.1 The WAFSOPSG is invited to note the information in this paper. END
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