REPORT ON COMPARISON BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF COORDINATED SIGMET AND TOTAL SIGMET ISSUANCE FROM PILOT PROJECT TIME FRAME(MONDAY TO FRIDAY FROM 00UTC

Transcription

1 Wrap up Meeting Of The Pilot Project on SIGMET Coordination, Singapore March 2017

2 REPORT ON COMPARISON BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF COORDINATED SIGMET AND TOTAL SIGMET ISSUANCE FROM PILOT PROJECT TIME FRAME(MONDAY TO FRIDAY FROM 00UTC 12UTC)

3 The Comparison Month Coordinated Sigmet Total Sigmet Percentage October % November % December % January % February % %

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5 HIGHLIGHTING THE USE OF CORRECTION FEATURE ON SIGMET, BASED ON APAC REGIONAL SIGMET GUIDE 5 TH EDITION,2015 T1T2A1A2ii CCCC YYGGgg [BBB] The group BBB should be used only when issuing a correction to a SIGMET which had already been transmitted. The BBB indicator shall have the following form: CCx for corrections to previously relayed bulletins, where x takes the value A for the first correction, B for the second correction, etc. Examples: WCNG21 AYPY CCA

6 EXAMPLE FROM JAKARTA MWO ON 14 MARCH 2017 THE CORRECTED WSID20 WIII CCA WIIZ SIGMET 07 VALID / WIII- WIIZ JAKARTA FIR EMBD TS OBS WI S0754 E S0524 E S0454 E S0754 E10042 TOP FL540 STNR NC= THE ORIGINAL WSID20 WIII WIIZ SIGMET 06 VALID / WIII- WIIZ JAKARTA FIR EMBD TS OBS WI S0754 E S0524 E S0454 E S0754 E10042 TOP FL540 STNR NC=

7 Did not accommodate the correction feature

8 Did not accommodate the correction feature

9 Got the correction spot on

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11 Background Date and time MWOs Impacted Analysis Observation NWP Model Result Recommendation

12 Background 1. SIG-Coord of Document ver 1.4 on 17 February 2017 in Part 2, :.Any of the MWOs however may initiate a request for a daily pre-tactical discussion. The agenda for these discussions may include: 1. A review of the synoptic situation, including the recent and latest observed regional weather conditions; 2. An assessment of model guidance/indicators for the development of a significant surge over the region; and 3. A consensus outlook for the following few days.

13 Background 2. SIG-Coord of Document ver 1.4 on 17 February 2017 in Part 2, :.It is recommended to mark particularly difficult cases encountered that may need further analysis and case studies.

14 Date and Time 23 January 2017 at UTC until UTC during Period of Monsoon Surge related to SIG-Coord

15 MWO s Impact 1. Jakarta MWO 2. Singapore MWO 3. Kuala Lumpur MWO 1 3 2

16 Analysis Observation 1. Streamline gradient wind on 23 January 2017 (Source : Forecaster Jakarta MWO) 2. Upper-air analysis (Source : Forecaster Jakarta MWO) 3. Daily Sea Surface Temperature (Source : NOAA OI SST V2 High Resolution Dataset v2.highres.html) 4. Satellite Imagery using HKO Web Tool on SIG-Coord, JMA Tool on SIG-Coord and SATAID

17 NWP Model 1. SIGWX Chart prognose (Source WAFC London) 2. Wind Temp at FL100, FL180, FL240, FL300 (Source WAFC London)

18 MWO S Coordination BEGINNING TIME OF COORDINATION Z

19 Analysis sinoptic chart at UTC Existence a HIGH Pressure 1046 HPA at Siberian It causing wind current moving generally into equatorial

20 Analysis based on SATAID at UTC Existence a HIGH Pressure 1046 HPA at Siberian It causing wind current at 925 HPA moving generally into equatorial as northeast monsoon

21 Areas that have high of SST (28 C 30 C found in the area so it can potentially cause more convective cloud Analysis based on daily SST

22 MWO S Coordination BOUNDARY CONSENSUS VERTICAL, MOV, DIR, VALIDITY

23 MWO S Coordination BOUNDARY, MOVEMENT FULLY CONSENSUS

24 Matter an important in Coordination 1. Duration of time period SIG-Coord : from Z until Z is 35 minutes, corresponding a SIG-Coord Document ver Feb 2017 as Part II SIGMET Coordination Procedures, paragraph To the extent practicable, the consultations between the MWOs should not last more than 15 minutes; however, in those instances, say, where extensive coordination may be required or where communication problems may be encountered, the MWO meteorologists are to adjust the t iming of their consultations accordingly but not to the detriment of the timely issuance of SIGMET, which ultimately takes priority.

25 Matter an important in Coordination 2. Determine to agree of proposed content, vertical extent, boundaries, direction and speed of movement of SIGMET phenomena affecting, or expected to affect, neighbouring FIR regions of responsibility, it s corresponding a SIG-Coord Document ver Feb 2017 as Part II SIGMET Coordination Procedures, paragraph In this case WMKK have a view of the others about movement TS phenomena is NW, while WIII and WSSS is STNR, but eventually WIII, WSSS, and WMKK agreed with STNR of movement.

26 Analysis during the phenomena 1. Using SIGWX Prognostic chart valid UTC 23 Jan 2017 Case study area and the area that have a potentially high value SST are clouds ISOL EMBD CB with TOP FL480

27 Analysis during the phenomena 2. Using Gradient Wind Analysis as Streamline at UTC 23 Jan 2017 Their system LOW in the Indian Ocean of Southern Hemisphere raises NE monsoon airflow from Northern Hemisphere entry passes to the equator and meet with downwind from S-SW of Southern Hemisphere causing the potential presence of CB clouds as convergence

28 Analysis during the phenomena 3. Using SATAID ( include Global Spectral Model (GSM) at UTC on 700 hpa and 500 hpa ) 700 hpa 500 hpa On steering layer 700 hpa showed the wind in the area of case studies come from the east towards the west at a speed of 10 kt and the layer 500 also same direction at a speed of KT

29 Analysis during the phenomena 3. Using Wind Temp Model valid UTC 23 January 2017 ) FL100 FL180 On the model of wind temp both layers FL100 and FL180 show the direction and speed of wind in the area of the case study looks similar to the previous model GSM (Sataid) is the wind moving from east to west speed of KT

30 Analysis during the phenomena 4. Using animation from JMA tool from UTC until UTC before SIGMET will issue with validity UTC UTC Show CB with TOP FL550 MOV STNR with NC intensity

31 Analysis during the phenomena TIME SERIES TOP CB FROM Z Z TOP CB 02 Z 552 TOP CB (FL) Z Z INDICATING INTSF WITH ASCENDING LINE OF GRAPHIC

32 Analysis during the phenomena 5. SIGMET look after Coordination between 3 MWO s SIGMET different with TOPFL530 and INTSF from WMKK

33 Analysis during the phenomena 6. Furthermore, how the subsequent development after UTC, using animation back from UTC until UTC within 1 hour are clearly CB increases in intensity with the TOP FL550 increases to FL560 and followed widespread area polygons the trend is moving toward the west-northwest

34 Analysis during the phenomena TIME SERIES TOP CB FROM Z Z TOP CB (FL) 02 Z 03 Z 00 Z Z TOP CB (FL) INDICATING NC WITH HORIZONTAL LINE OF GRAPHIC

35 Analysis during the phenomena 7. At 03:00 UTC, the view from the third SIGMET MWO s are still the same as when the clock 02:15 UTC

36 Analysis during the phenomena 8. further developments after 03:00 UTC until 04:00 UTC show At 03:30 UTC CB in the case study area joined the TS in the Northwest area and split back with the top height of CB reduced to TOPFL540 until 04:00 utc, moving west-southwest

37 Analysis during the phenomena TIME SERIES TOP CB FROM Z Z TOP CB (FL) 02 Z 03 Z Z Z Z TOP CB (FL) 04 Z INDICATING NC WITH HORIZONTAL LINE OF GRAPHIC

38 MWO S Coordination WMKK UPDATE THEIR SIGMET BEFORE THE END OF THE FIRST SIGMET

39 Analysis during the phenomena 9. At 04:30 UTC, the view from the third SIGMET MWO s after WMKK updating their SIGMET A02

40 Analysis during the phenomena 10. From 04:10 UTC until 05:00 UTC show When a clock 04:10 UTC joined CB in the northwest with TOP FL CB peak remained at FL540 and the area is widespread, but there is a small part precisely on the area Singapore FIR that CB decreased intensity (white circles)

41 Analysis during the phenomena 11. From 05:10 UTC until 06:00 UTC show clearly above on the white circle area which section CB decreased intensity and movement towards the west while the CB is remain intensity moving toward the west-northwest

42 MWO S Coordination BEGINNING TIME OF COORDINATION END TIME OF COORDINATION

43 Analysis during the phenomena 12. At 06:30 UTC, after MWO s coordination their SIGMET looking below

44 Result 1. Based on Streamline Gradient Wind Analysis we use it to detect any pattern of convergent area that indicate the potential of bad weather location and combine with SST data. 2. There is a difference between the height of CB Top Cloud in WAFC model forecast with high cloud tops on JMA SIGMET tool. 3. In this case model wind temp data from WAFC combine with SATAID at 700 hpa and 500 hpa produce same wind direction so can be used to determine the movement of the clouds CB. 4. Increasing in CB cloud top height can indicate the intensity of the phenomena.

45 Result 5. In this case in the same area of one polygon TS SIGMET,there are some clouds of CB/TS which have different intensity, movement and also high of CB Top so perhaps resulting difference issue SIGMET between MWO s.

46 Recommendation 1. Should use the size of area or volume of a polygon so that it can be determined the intensity of the phenomena by using changes in the coverage area of the SIGMET phenomena. 2. In the future we are going to try to compare the number of occurrences of TS phenomena SIGMET in an area of Jakarta FIR as a climatological data so it become a reference in determining a SIGMET issuance.

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