Preparation of WC SIGMET Case studies. C.M. Shun Hong Kong Observatory Hong Kong, CHINA
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1 Preparation of WC SIGMET Case studies C.M. Shun Hong Kong Observatory Hong Kong, CHINA
2 Recap Where to obtain information TCAC Satellite / radar imageries, satellite derived products, NWP When to issue Tropical cyclone intensity 34 knots or above Entered or expected to enter FIR/CTA within 12 hours How to prepare (Be patient! Check out the 2 cases in the following slides) Whom to send ATS, ROBEX centre, etc. When to renew/cancel Renew At least every 6 hours Cancel Tropical cyclone weakening Tropical cyclone moving out of FIR/CTA
3 Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06)
4 Before there is a need to issue WC SIGMET* At 14/0340UTC 14/0338UTC Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) WCSS20 VHHH VHHK SIGMET 1 VALID / VHHH- VHHK HONG KONG FIR EMBD TS FCST S OF N1830 TOP FL400 MOV NW 10KT NC= * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose
5 Forecast by TCAC Tokyo* At 15/1242UTC Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) ZCZC SMB GG VHHHYMYX RJTDYMYX FKPQ30 RJTD TC ADVISORY DTG: /1200Z TCAC: TOKYO TC: CHANCHU NR: 26 PSN: N1520 E11510 MOV: N 06KT C: 930HPA MAX WIND: 90KT FCST PSN +6HR: 15/1800Z N1588 E11483 FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 95KT FCST PSN +12HR: 16/0000Z N1655 E11455 FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 95KT FCST PSN +18HR: 16/0600Z N1748 E11438 FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 100KT FCST PSN +24HR: 16/1200Z N1840 E11420 FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 95KT NXT MSG: /1800Z = NNNN Expected to enter FIR at about 05UTC * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose
6 Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) Satellite / radar imageries At around 15/1730UTC
7 Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) Estimating cloud top height
8 Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) Issuing WC SIGMET message* At 15/1745UTC TC position at observation time Valid period start from time when TC enters FIR/CTA WCSS20 VHHH VHHK SIGMET 5 VALID / VHHH- VHHK HONG KONG FIR TC CHANCHU OBS AT 1500Z N1548 E11512 CB TOP FL450 WI 240NM OF CENTRE MOV N 8KT NC FCST 0900Z TC CENTRE N1812 E11448= Can be estimated from satellite imagery Available from TCAC; can be derived from FCST MAX WIND * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose Forecast position normally at the end of the valid period
9 Other information supporting the issuance of WC SIGMET Forecast from MWO (e.g. HKO) and other centres Cloud top height estimation Intensity estimation
10 Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) Forecast by MWO (e.g. HKO)* WTSS20 VHHH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT UTC, TYPHOON CHANCHU (0601) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 100 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT UTC TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (23.0 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT UTC TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. Annex 3 recommends SIGMET messages issued in accordance with 7.1.4, concerning volcanic ash cloud and tropical cyclones should be based on advisory information provided by VAACs and TCACs respectively, designated by regional air navigation agreement (7.1.5). * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose
11 Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) Estimating cloud top height MTSAT/Fengyun cloud top temperature check cloud top pressure from tephigram nearby FL MODIS multi-channel retrieval MODIS MOD04 output
12 Estimating intensity Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) 15/1738UTC 17/0138UTC D vorak analysis Doppler velocity
13 Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) Estimating intensity (con t)
14 Case 1 T Chanchu (May 06) Satellite / radar imageries At around 17/2030UTC
15 Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) Canceling WC SIGMET message* WCSS20 VHHH VHHK SIGMET 10 VALID / VHHH- VHHK HONG KONG FIR TC CHANCHU OBS AT 1800Z N2324 E11700 CB TOP FL450 WI 240NM OF CENTRE MOV NE 16KT WKN FCST 0000Z TC CENTRE N2454 E11812= WCSS20 VHHH VHHK SIGMET 11 VALID / VHHH- VHHK HONG KONG FIR CNL SIGMET /180000= Valid period from issue time of cancel message to end of valid time of message to be cancelled * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose Sequence number and valid period of message to be cancelled
16 Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06)
17 Before there is a need to issue WC SIGMET* At 26/1142UTC 26/1138UTC Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) WCSS20 VHHH VHHK SIGMET 1 VALID / VHHH- VHHK HONG KONG FIR EMBD TS FCST S OF N1830 TOP FL400 MOV NW 10KT NC= * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose
18 Forecast by TCAC Tokyo* At 27/1249UTC Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) ZCZC SMB GG VHHHYMYX WSSSYMYX FKPQ30 RJTD TC ADVISORY DTG: /1200Z TCAC: TOKYO TC: JELAWAT NR: 6 PSN: N1755 E11320 MOV: WNW 10KT C: 998HPA MAX WIND: 35KT FCST PSN +6HR: 27/1800Z N1830 E11273 FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT FCST PSN +12HR: 28/0000Z N1905 E11225 FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT FCST PSN +18HR: 28/0600Z N1968 E11190 FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 40KT FCST PSN +24HR: 28/1200Z N2030 E11155 FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT NXT MSG: /1800Z = NNNN Intensifies into a tropical storm within FIR at about 12UTC * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose
19 Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) Satellite / radar imageries At around 27/1330UTC 27/1338UTC
20 Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) Forecast by MWO (ie. HKO)* WTSS20 VHHH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (0602) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS. AT UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT UTC TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. Annex 3 recommends SIGMET messages issued in accordance with 7.1.4, concerning volcanic ash cloud and tropical cyclones should be based on advisory information provided by VAACs and TCACs respectively, designated by regional air navigation agreement (7.1.5). * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose
21 Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) Estimating cloud top height
22 Estimating intensity Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) 27/1338UTC
23 Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) Issuing WC SIGMET message* TC position at observation time Valid period start from time when TC strengthened into a tropical storm in FIR/CTA VHHK SIGMET 5 VALID / VHHH- VHHK HONG KONG FIR TC JELAWAT OBS AT 1200Z N1800 E11348 CB TOP FL400 WI 200NM OF CENTRE MOV NW 8KT NC FCST 1800Z TC CENTRE N1848 E11318= Can be estimated from satellite imagery Available from TCAC; can be derived from FCST MAX WIND * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose Forecast position normally at the end of the valid period
24 Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) Satellite / radar imageries At around 28/0530UTC
25 Case 2 TS Jelawat (Jun 06) Canceling WC SIGMET message* VHHK SIGMET 1 VALID / VHHH- VHHK HONG KONG FIR TC JELAWAT OBS AT 0000Z N1900 E11142 CB TOP FL400 WI 200NM OF CENTRE MOV NW 8KT NC FCST 0600Z TC CENTRE N1942 E11118= No cancellation message was issued since Jelawat moved out of Hong Kong FIR just before expiration of the message * Fictitious message for demonstration purpose
26 Do s Follow template strictly The message should be short and clear without additional descriptive materials other than those in Annex 3 Compilation/filing time should be equal/close to start of valid period For an expected event, event commencement time is also the start of valid period Lead time should be up to 12 hours Issue graphical SIGMET in BUFR code form for MWOs in a position to do so
27 Thank you
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