DR RAJENDRA KUMAR JENAMANI

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1 TCAC NEW DELHI METHODS AND PROCEDURES USED FOR PREDICTION DR RAJENDRA KUMAR JENAMANI Director In-Charge Meteorological Watch Office (MWO) INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT New ATS Building (Room No.-211, 2nd Floor), Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport, New Delhi

2 INTRODUCTION OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND TRACKING OVER SEA FROM INSAT PREDICTION TECHNIQUES COMMUNICATIONS ISSUE OF TCAC ADVISORIES AS PER ICAO NORMS RECENT DEVELOPMENT CONCLUSIONS

3 GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISTRIBUTION BAY ARABIAN SEA SIO SW PACIFIC AREA NW PACIFIC NE PACIFIC NW ATLANTIC % OF GLOBAL FREQUENCY

4 ICAO TCACs TCAC Area of Responsibility Tropical Cyclone Season DARWIN - South-East Indian November-April Ocean HONOLULU - Central Pacific May - November MIAMI - Eastern Pacific May November NADI - Southern Pacific November - April NEW DELHI- 1) Bay of Bengal April - June 2) Arabian Sea October - December TOKYO - Western Pacific January - December (including South China Sea)

5 Brief History ICAO, Met Div., Montreal, Canada, Meet, Sept., 2002 recommended TCAs for International Civil Aviation in specified format. IMD agreed to recommendation on IMD HQ asked RSMC, CWD located at the HQ to take the additional work of TCAC w.e.f for ensuing cyclone season. It also issued order to all RMC s, MWO s and DDGM(WF) regarding issuance of TCA for ICAO Completing seven years

6 CLASSIFICATION OF CYCLONE IN NIO Types of Disturbances 1. Low Pressure Area 2. Depression 3. Deep Depression 4. Cyclonic Storm 5. Severe Cyclonic Storm 6. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 7. Super Cyclonic Storm Associated wind speed in the Circulation Less than 17 knots ( < 31 kmph) 17 to 27 knots ( 31 to 49 kmph) 28 to 33 knots ( 50 to 61 kmph) 34 to 47 knots ( 62 to 88 kmph) 48 to 63 knots ( 89 to 118 kmph) 64 to 119 knots ( 119 to 221 kmph) 120 knots and above ( 222 kmph and above)

7 CYCLONIC STORMS OVER BAY AND ARABIAN SEA Series1 Series FREQUENCY MONTHS

8 Annual Frequency Cyclonic Storms and above Depressions and above Years Figure Years running means of Annual frequency of disturbances with the minimum intensity of Depressions and above formed over the Indian region ( )

9 3.5 3 May October November 2.5 Frequency Years Figure Years running means of frequency of disturbances with the intensity of depressions and above formed in the month of May, October & November ( )

10 Analyzing the past damages and inventorying the population and property at risk INDIA-55-74% B DESH-10-21%(HIGHEST FOR SEVERE CS) S LANKA-2-4% M MAR-3-13%

11 % % SHARES OF GLOBAL FREQUENCY IN THE LITTORAL COUNTRIES OF THE BAY OF BENGAL ONLY 3.4 % CROSSED INDIA AND 0.9 CROSSED BANGALADESH WHILE IT CAUSED 53% AND 23 % OF HUMAN DEATHS RESPECTIVELY (TOTAL 76%) INDIA BGDSH MYNAMAR SRILANKA IN THE SEA COUNTRY

12 FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO DISASTROUS SURGES IN BANGLADESH SHALLOW COASTAL WATER CONVERGENCE OF THE BAY LOW AND FLAT TOPOGRAPHY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THICKLY POPULATED LOW LYING ISLNADS FAVOURABLE CYCLONE TRACKS CORIOLIS EFFECTS INNUMERABLE NUMBER OF INLETS INCLUDING WORLD LARGEST RIVER SYSTEMS(GANGA-BRAHMAPUTRA-MEGHNA SOCIO-ECONMIC FACTOR

13 Meteorological Parameters of Major Cyclones hitting Andhra Pradesh MOST SEVERE RECENTLY-1977 AP & 1999 SUPER CYCLONE Cyclone Landfall Max T MSSW MSLP Strength Eye diameter RMR Storm Date( category) No. (m/s) (hpa) (m/s) (km) (km) surge ( m ) 19 Nov 1977 ( SCSCHW ) May 1979 ( SCSCHW ) Nov 1984 ( SCSCHW ) Nov 1989 ( SCSCHW ) Oct May 1990 ( SCSCHW ) Nov 1996( SCSCHW ) Aug 3-Feb 15 Nov 1998 ( VSCS ) 4.5 ( Cl. No. )

14 OBSERVING AND TRACKING SYSTEMS OVER SEA FROM INSAT/RADAR/BUOYS

15 IMD S OBSERVING NETWORK SURFACE OBSERVATORIES 556 HWSRs 20 UPPER AIR OBSERVATORIES 110 S-BAND CONVENTIONAL RADARS 8 DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS 4 INSAT-2E/METSAT/NOAA/METEOSAT SATELLITES SHIPS OF INDIAN VOLUNTARY OBSERVING FLEET 207 BUOYS 12

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22 Satellite Lunch date Met Payload with Wavelength Bands Major Applications Active/ Inactive Kalpana-1 12th Sept., 2002 Very High Resolution Radiometer(VHRR) Monitoring cyclones & monsoon Active Bands: CMV Winds µm OLR µm Rainfall Estimation WV Band: 5-7.1µm INSAT-3A April 2003 VHRR(VIS,IR, WV) Monitoring cyclones & monsoon CMV Winds OLR Active Rainfall Estimation Mesoscale features Flood/intense precipitation advisory Snow detection

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36 COMMUNICATIONS

37 AMSS TCAC-ICAO ASI/PAC RODBs headers BANGKOK -BTBBYPYX BRISBANE- YBBYPYX NADI- NFZZRFXX SNGAPORE- WSZZYPYM TOKYO- RJAAYPYX DELHI AMSS MUMBAI AMSS KOLKATA AMSS CHENNEI With 4 MWOs AMSS NAGPUR AMSS GAUHATI

38 PREDICTION TECHNIQUES SYNOPTIC CLIPER NWP ISALLOBARIC FIELD

39 FORECASTING BY NWP TECHNIQUES Limited Area Model Quasi-Lagrangian Model

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44 ISSUE OF WARNING/ADVISORIES

45 ISSUE OF GENERAL WARNINGS AND SYSTEMS NATIONAL ACWCs (KOLKATA, MUMBAI & CHENNAI) CWCs (BHUBANESWAR, VISAC & AHMEDABAD) NATIONAL CO-ORDINATION (PUNE WEATHER CENTRAL & CWD(NHAC) NEW DELHI) INTERANTIONAL RSMC/TCAC -TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI

46 ISSUE OF TCAC ADVISORIES AS PER ICAO NORMS 6-hourly Advisories based on 00, with time of issue HH+3 hours for all system with wind speed> 34 kts P-1---Position, direction of movement, speed and central pressure P-2--Must Include 12, 18, 24 hourly forecast position and maximum wind. SENT TO MWOS/ALL TCAC/ RODB(REGIONAL OPMET DATA BANK) TAKE PART IN ANNUAL ASIA/PAC SIGMET TEST 15 JAN 2007(JUST AN FROM LB SHAH, REGEIONAL DIR, ASIA/PAC)

47 TCA FORMAT DTG YYYYMMDT / TTTT Z TCAC NEW DELHI TC BOB / ARB 01 NR 01, 02 PSN N LaLalala / E LoLoLo lolo MOV DDD / FF Kt C hpa Max. Wind Mw Mw Mw Kt FCST = PSN +12hrs N LaLalala / E LoLoLo lolo Max. Wind +12hrs Mw Mw Mw Kt FCST = PSN +18hrs Max. Wind +18hrs FCST = PSN +24hrs Max. Wind +24hrs NEXT MESSAGE YYYYMMDD / TTTT Z / NO MSG EXP

48 TCAC ADVISORY REAL TIME BULLETIN AS PER ICAO(EVERY 6 HOURS) DTG: /1200Z TCAC: NEW DELHI TC: AGNI NR: 01 PSN: N 0930 /E MOV: NNW 04 KT C: 998 HPA Max Wind: 40 KT FCST PSN +12hrs: N1030 / E Max. Wind +12hrs: 45 KT FCST PSN +18hrs: N1100 / E Max. Wind + 18 hrs: 50 KT FCST PSN + 24hrs: N1130/ E Max Wind +24hrs: 55 KT NEXT MSG: /1800 Z

49 BRIEF OUTLINE ON RECENT ADVISORIES AKASH GONU

50 IMD- Adding New Technology for further Improving Cyclone Monitoring/FORECASTING Observational Network New Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface Stations Existing S-band S Cyclone Detection Radars to be replaced with Doppler mode radars Strengthening of RS/RW Weather Forecasting IMD plans to procure a state of the art computing system Implementation of High resolution forecast models

51 * THANKS *

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