WAFC. Changes to WAFS SIGWX data and TAFs

Transcription

1 WAFC London Issue 4 September 2008 update Changes to WAFS SIGWX data and TAFs As a result of Amendment No. 74 to ICAO Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation, several changes were made to the content of WAFS SIGWX charts from 7 November WAFC Provider States are no longer required to issue amendments to WAFS SIGWX forecasts, or to depict surface fronts, well-defined convergence zones (ITCZ) and noncumulonimbus cloud amount and type on WAFS SIGWX forecasts. Advanced lead time of issuance of WAFS SIGWX On 6 February 2008, the WAFC Provider States advanced the lead time of issuance of WAFS SIGWX forecasts in the BUFRcode form to 17 hours for high-levels (SWH) and 16 hours for medium-levels (SWM). For WAFS SIGWX forecasts in the portable network graphics (PNG) chart form, a lead time of issuance of 16 hours applies. When the WAFCs are operating in backup mode, SWH BUFR will continue to be issued with a lead time of 17 hours. However, SWM BUFR and PNG charts will be issued with a lead time of 15 hours. Code changes applicable to Operational Meteorological (OPMET) data On 5 November 2008, code changes applicable to Operational Meteorological (OPMET) data will be introduced under the requirements of Amendment 74 to Annex 3. ICAO has made changes to allow the validity period of a Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) to be increased to a maximum of 30 hours. To facilitate this change, the format of the validity period and change-group period(s) used in all TAFs will change to include day of month information. The validity period of a TAF changes from the present ddhhhh notation, to become ddhh/ddhh notation. The period of occurrence for TEMPO and PROB change-groups change from the present hhhh notation to ddhh/ddhh. FROM change-groups change from hhmm notation to ddhhmm (see examples). The nominal validity time and nominal issue time for some civilian TAFs will change. The lead time of issuance of long TAFs will typically be around 1 hour prior to the start of the TAF (subject to regional air navigation agreement). The Annex 3 recommended practice is that meteorological offices shall ensure that not more than one TAF is valid at an aerodrome at any given time. TAF CCCC Z KT 9999 BKN020 BECMG 0608 SCT013CB BKN020 TEMPO G45KT 3000 TSRA BKN008CB BECMG KT FEW020 TEMPO BR= TAF CCCC Z KT P6SM SCT025 OVC040 TEMPO 1216 OVC025 FM G23KT P6SM OVC015 FM G22KT P6SM OVC008 TEMPO SM -SN FM KT 3SM BR OVC006 TEMPO SM -SN BLSN FM KT 5SM BR OVC006= Current 24 hour practice (date codes highlighted). TAF CCCC Z 1606/ KT 9999 BKN020 BECMG 1606/1608 SCT013CB BKN020 TEMPO 1608/ G45KT 3000 TSRA BKN008CB BECMG 1612/ KT FEW020 TEMPO 1703/ BR TEMPO 1709/1712 BKN012= TAF CCCC Z 1312/ KT P6SM SCT025 OVC040 TEMPO 1312/1316 OVC025 FM G23KT P6SM OVC015 FM G22KT P6SM OVC008 TEMPO 1321/1401 1SM -SN FM KT 3SM BR OVC006 TEMPO 1401/1405 2SM -SN BLSN FM KT 5SM BR OVC006= 30 hour TAF as of 5 November 2008 (date codes highlighted). It is the responsibility of ICAO Contracting States to implement ICAO Annex 3 changes in accordance with the Standards and Recommended Practices. It is not the responsibility of the SADIS or ISCS Provider States to make the necessary OPMET code changes on behalf of aeronautical meteorological providers (such as National Met. Services and Civil Aviation Authorities). However, since OPMET data constitutes both SADIS and ISCS broadcasts, the United Kingdom and United States will ensure that both services are able to continue to quality check the OPMET data, as well as broadcast OPMET conforming to the new format and, for a short period at least, the legacy format. So that both aeronautical meteorological providers and users are able to determine whether their transmission and/ or reception/visualisation systems will adequately handle the TAF code changes, the United States National Weather Service has set up a TAF test facility at:

2 WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS Cessation of the SADIS 1G broadcast system This year, ICAO SADIS Operations Group (SADISOPSG) Conclusion 13/24 endorsed the cessation of the SADIS first-generation (SADIS 1G) broadcast system between 1 and 31 January 2009, in view of the implementation of the SADIS second-generation (SADIS 2G) system. Any existing SADIS 1G user who has not migrated to SADIS 2G by then should consider using the SADIS FTP service until they have a SADIS 2G VSAT receiving system. The SADIS 1G satellite data distribution system has been in operation since the mid-1990s. Since implementing the SADIS second-generation (SADIS 2G) system in September 2004, all existing SADIS 1G users have been advised to consider upgrading their SADIS VSAT receiving equipment to accept SADIS 2G, while all prospective new satellite broadcast users have been advised to procure a SADIS 2G receiving system. One of the key advantages of SADIS 2G over its predecessor is the ability of the system to deliver data to the end user in the Internet Protocol (UDP multicast or TCP WMO sockets), as well as the open industry standard X.25 format. This enables users to process data in whatever manner is convenient for them. Another advantage is that while WAFS data available on SADIS 2G is identical to that of the SADIS 1G service i.e. OPMET, GRIB and SIGWX increased data transmission rates mean that SADIS 2G delivers data to users faster. WAFC performance indicators Forecasts of wind and temperature issued by WAFC London continue to show a steady improvement over recent years as shown by the attached graphs for RMS wind and temperature errors at 250hpa (FL340). The web page has recently been enhanced by the addition of data for the WMO defined region covering Australia and New Zealand. FC-Analysis Time-Av R.M.S. Vector Error Wind (m/s) at hpa: Analysis Northern hemisphere (CBS area 90 N 20 N): T FC-Analysis Time-Av R.M.S. Vector Error Wind (m/s) at hpa: Analysis Southern hemisphere (CBS area 90 N 20 N): T

3 WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS Constant progress has been made by ICAO Contracting States to migrate to SADIS 2G since In many cases, much of the SADIS 1G VSAT receiving equipment works with SADIS 2G, e.g. antenna and low-noise block (LNB) meaning that most users only require a new digital receiver-only (DRO) unit and MegaPAC. This helps to keep upgrade costs down. FC-Analysis Time-Av R.M.S. Vector Error Temperature (Kelvin) at hpa: Analysis Tropics (CBS area 20 N 20 S): T

4 WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS Summary of the fourth meeting of the ICAO WAFS Operations Group The fourth meeting of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) World Area Forecast System Operations Group (WAFSOPSG/4) was held at the ICAO Middle East Regional Office, Cairo, from the February The meeting was attended by 29 experts from 15 States and four international organisations: the Agency for the Safety of Aerial Navigation in Africa and Madagascar (ASECNA), the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the International Federation of Air Line Pilots Associations (IFALPA) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The group reviewed the regional procedures related to World Area Forecast System (WAFS) and proposed amendments which would introduce a reference to the new gridded forecasts of cumulonimbus clouds, icing and turbulence. The group also reviewed and endorsed a draft Amendment (No. 75) to ICAO Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation; and reviewed the operation of the WAFS, taking note of a WAFS Management Report which had been prepared by the World Area Forecast Centre (WAFC) Provider States (available at: In view of the future development of the WAFS, the group endorsed the results of a study undertaken by IATA which called for increased temporal and spatial resolution of WAFS upper-air forecasts. These improvements are ultimately intended to reduce the need for airlines to carry additional fuel resulting in reduced fuel burn and a genuine cost saving for airlines. In addition, the group endorsed an implementation plan for the migration from GRIB 1 to GRIB 2 code form WAFS forecasts; and a WAFS 5-year plan covering years Members of the group had also evaluated trial gridded WAFS forecasts for icing, turbulence and cumulonimbus clouds, to foster the future use of these automated SIGWX forecasts. In time for the next WAFSOPSG meeting (circa September 2009), the WAFC Provider States have been tasked to verify and validate the automated SIGWX forecasts against observations and the traditional (human-generated) SIGWX products to establish their characteristics and limitations.

5 WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS Lastly, future work in the area of concatenated WAFS forecasts for long-haul flight operations, and the establishment of a web-based distribution of WAFS forecasts, was discussed by the group. A full report of the WAFSOPSG/4 meeting, and previous meetings, is available at:

6 WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS Aeronautical meteorological forecaster training The Met Office offers the Aeronautical meteorological forecaster (AMF) training course in response to the aeronautical meteorological forecaster guidelines as described in WMO-No. 258, Supplement 1: Training & Qualification Requirements for Aeronautical Meteorological Personnel. These standards have been adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to ensure best practice worldwide. The aim of this one week course is to improve the forecasting and awareness of aviation weather impact variables. Aeronautical meteorological forecaster training course, Met Office, Exeter, May The course is designed for operational aeronautical meteorological forecasters worldwide, with participants receiving training on: METARs, TAFs and Trends Tephigram revision Diagnosing and forecasting turbulence Diagnosing and forecasting icing Diagnosing and forecasting cumulonimbus clouds and severe convection Diagnosing and forecasting low cloud and poor visibility Snow forecasting techniques Aviation charts and warnings Trainees successfully completing the course are awarded a certificate. The course is run at the Met Office College in Exeter, but may also be carried out at your organisation. For example, an AMF course was provided in Pretoria for the South African Weather Service. Please us at aviation@metoffice.gov.uk for more information. Aviation Seminar 2008 Muscat The annual Met Office Aviation Seminar, co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), has for many years been a core part of the Met Office s strategy to help WMO Members, particularly in developing countries, to build sustainable capacity in the provision of aeronautical meteorological services. The seminar was traditionally held at the Met Office College at Shinfield Park in Reading and then, following the relocation of the Met Office in 2004, at the Met Office Headquarters in Exeter. However, in a break with tradition, last year s seminar was taken on the road to the Kenyan Meteorological Department s Institute of Meteorological Training and Research (IMTR) in Nairobi. Following the success of last year s event in Nairobi and at the kind invitation of the Oman Department of Meteorology, the 2008 Met Office Aviation Seminar was held at the Sultan Qaboos University (SQU) in Muscat for five days from Saturday 5 to Wednesday 9 July The aim of the seminar is to increase the ability of the participants to make best use of new developments in aeronautical meteorology in their daily work and is designed for participants from operational aeronautical forecasting services. The topics covered included: Aviation meteorological hazards forecasting and appreciation WMO aeronautical MET personnel training guidelines and associated resources Interpretation and aviation MET applications of remote sensing products, e.g. satellite imagery, SFERICS and AMDAR Interpretation and aviation MET applications of Numerical Weather Prediction products WAFS and SADIS services and data applications Guidance on the preparation of low-level significant weather charts SIGMET workshop Quality Management Three of the training sessions were delivered remotely by experts utilising VisitView and the seminar was also supported by an interactive e-learning website available through the Conferences, Seminars and Workshops section of the WMO CAeM Education and Training website at: The seminar is open to those WMO Members who are able to receive World Area Forecast Service (WAFS) data from World Area Forecast Centre (WAFC) London. This year s seminar was attended by 23 delegates from Bhutan, Burma Myanmar, China, Egypt, Guinea, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kenya, Korea, Lesotho, Namibia, Nepal, Nigeria, Oman, Russia, South Africa, Tanzania, Thailand and Togo. On the evidence of the delegate feedback the seminar was again a great success.

7 WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS WAFC NEWS TAF verification The ability to demonstrate the value and accuracy of meteorological provision is becoming increasingly relevant. The principles of, and guidance on, Quality Management System (QMS) provision for meteorological service providers are in WMO-No. 1001, and are adopted by ICAO Annex 3. It is expected that the Quality Management System provisions will be upgraded to an ICAO Annex 3 Standard as part of the overall safety management system package (SMS) in ICAO considers the implementation of QMS essential for SMS, and is strongly supported by the ICAO ANC. One part of the overall QMS package will be the requirement to provide evidence of TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast) verification (WMO No.1001 para refers). For many years the Met Office has been providing a monthly detailed analysis of its TAFs to the Civil Aviation Authority (the UK Met Authority). The Met Office can provide a similar detailed analysis of the TAFs your State produces. Features Our complete verification analysis includes the monthly provision of numerical and graphical data for the following features: Individual station SQI score This is a measure of the overall value of TAFs over the course of a month. Complete miss frequency Complete misses correspond to the occurrence of an event when it was not forecast, i.e. forecast with 0% probability of occurrence. False alarm proportion This statistic looks at the 100% forecast category only (i.e. certainty for an event to occur). Relative bias This is a measure of whether TAFs are overly pessimistic or optimistic. Reliability tables A graphical summary analysis of the results of all individual TAFs over a period of time. These can be ed, faxed or posted monthly and are available for any number of TAFs provided by your State. Please us at aviation@metoffice.gov.uk for more information. Seminar members.

8 Useful contact points and web addresses WAFC London Regulatory Group Manager: Mr Nigel Gait. Tel: ; Fax: ; SADIS Manager and International Aviation Analyst: Mr Greg Brock. Tel: ; Fax: ; WAFC London 24-hour Service Desk. Tel: ; SADIS website SADIS 2G web page SADIS Admin Messages SADIS Software Evaluations SADIS Procurement Guidelines SADIS Gateway Handbook WAFC Washington ISCS Program Coordinator: Mr Robert Gillespie. Tel: ext. 140; ISCS Program Leader: Mr Patrick Gillis. Tel: ext. 104; NWS International Aviation Weather Services Program Manager: Mr Michael Graf. Tel: ext. 117; NWS/ISCS 24-hour Network Operations Technical Control Center: Tel: ; NWS/Aviation Weather Center Deputy Director: Mr Larry Burch. Tel: ; ISCS website ISCS Admin Messages ISCS Software Evaluations ICAO WAFS Operations Group SADIS Operations Group WAFC Backup Procedures WAFC Backup Test Chronologywww.icao.int/anb/wafsopsg/Recent%20Chronology%20of%20WAFC%20Backup%20Tests.pdf WAFC Backup Test Schedule WAFC BUFR Guidelines Document SADIS User List SADIS User Guide Met Office FitzRoy Road, Exeter Devon, EX1 3PB United Kingdom Tel: Fax: Produced by the Met Office Crown copyright /0216 Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks