Fourth Meeting of the Working Group of the Meteorology Panel Meteorological Operations Group (METP WG-MOG/4) Work Stream 1 and 2: SADIS/WIFS-WAFS

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1 Fourth Meeting of the Working Group of the Meteorology Panel Meteorological Operations Group (METP WG-MOG/4) Work Stream 1 and 2: SADIS/WIFS-WAFS Exeter, United Kingdom, 4 to 7 April 2017 WORK STREAM 2: WAFS MEETING REPORT INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION 1

2 LIST OF WG-MOG/4 WAFS ACTIONS Action agreed 4/WAFS1: WAFCs to prepare a paper on how backup arrangements may change in the SWIM environment for the next meeting. Action agreed 4/WAFS2: Proposed revision of paragraph and of Appendix 2 of ICAO Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation in relation to the availability of WAFS Forecasts. Action agreed 4/WAFS3: Action 4/3: WAFC Washington to provide an update upon further investigation on BUFR availability statistics at the next MOG meeting. Action agreed 4/WAFS4: WAFCs to include ROC curves for previous years in the management report. Action agreed 4/WAFS5 That the WAFCs be invited to further develop the proposal for automated generation of Significant Weather (SIGW) Forecasts for presentation at the next meeting of WG-MOG: Action agreed 4/WAFS6: Invite MOG/6 attendees to present SN s relating to High Altitude Ice Crystals issues at next meeting. Action agreed4/wafs7: WAFCs prepare a paper developing the discussions held at MOG/4 on the WAFS Medium Term Strategy along with a draft amendment to Annex 3 for subsequent consideration by METP/3. Action agreed 4/WAFS8: Review of the Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Values in Annex 3. Action agreed4/wafs9: Maintain and update the Regional SIGMET Guide Template in preparation for Amendment 78 to ICAO Annex 3. Action agreed 4/WAFS10 Investigate SIGMET matters identified by the METP/2. 2

3 Agenda Item 1: Opening of the meeting 1.1 The fourth meeting of the MET Operations Group (MOG/4) for matters pertaining to the World Area Forecast System (WAFS) took place in Exeter, United Kingdom (U.K.), at the premises of the Met Office from 4 to 7 June Mr. Colin Hord, Principal, MET/AIM/Radio Licensing, CAA, and Rapporteur of WG-MOG, chaired the meeting, 1.3 Mr. Hord opened the meeting at 0900 British Summer Time. He thanked the WAFC Provider States for their continued investment and improvements in the WAFS which were appreciated by all the users. He also thanked the UK Met Office for their hospitality while hosting the meeting at their HQ in Exeter. Agenda Item 2: Introduction 2.1 Participants to the meeting were introduced. The list of participants is contained in Appendix A. Agenda Item 3: Matters relating to SADIS (4 and 5 April) 3.1 Refer to a separate report. Agenda Item 4: Matters relating to WAFS (6 and 7 April) 4.1. Status of outstanding WG-MOG (WAFS) Actions. The meeting noted a report of the status of outstanding actions relating to WAFS (MOG/4 SN/22 refers) presented by the WAFC Provider States. After review the meeting was pleased to note the satisfactory completion of all outstanding actions. 4.2 Other Operational Matters Issues arising from METP/4 meeting IP/21 Purposeful Delay of WAFC SIGW Issuance during Scheduled WAFC SIGW Backup Events The meeting recalled that WG-MOG/3 Decision 3/1 invited each WAFC to purposefully delay, once per year during a scheduled WAFC backup event, the distribution of data. This was intended to more accurately reflect the scenario that under real backup events data may be issued up to 2 hours later than normal. It was noted, that there were no complaints during the first implementation of Decision 3/1 by WAFC London on 11 January It was also recognised that the prior notification of the delay ensured that all users were aware of the delay. On that basis, both WAFCs will continue to meet the requirements expressed in Decision 3/1, and provide prior notification of the purposeful delay to the issuance of WAFC SIGW data as necessary. Additionally, both WAFCs will monitor and report back to the group any relevant feedback from users of WAFC SIGW. 3

4 WAFC Washington plans to implement a similar one hour delay on the 26th July However, it was noted that the current backup processes will be required to evolve in light of separate proposals regarding the development of WAFC SIGW, and the SWIM era. Accordingly, the meeting agreed that the WAFCs should set out how the backup commitment would be expected to be met as part of their development plans. Action agreed 4/WAFS1: WAFCs to prepare a paper on how backup arrangements may change in the SWIM environment for the next meeting Gridded Upper Air Forecasts. The current availability requirements are stated in Appendix 2 to ICAO Annex 3. On the basis of the enhancements over the years to both WAFC's production processes, and the evidence of actual availability times achieved by both WAFCs over several years it is proposed to revise the requirements currently stated in ICAO Annex 3. The proposed revision strives to a) recognise the extra processing time required to harmonise the gridded CB, icing and turbulence forecasts; b) the desire of the user community to receive the complete datasets reliably as early as technically feasible; and c) allow reasonable scope for enhancement to the currently provided datasets. Accordingly, the meeting agreed that the production of each forecast shall be completed and made available as soon as technically feasible but not later than 5 hours after standard time of observation. The meeting further agreed that the WAFCs should prepare a Working Paper formally proposing such an update to Amendment 79 of ICAO Annex 3 for submission to and consideration by the METP at its third meeting. Action agreed 4/WAFS2: Proposed revision of paragraph and of Appendix 2 of ICAO Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation in relation to availability of WAFS Forecasts. 1. That the WAFC providers be invited to submit a Working Paper to the Meteorology Panel proposing; 2. a) revision to paragraph of Appendix 2 of ICAO Annex 3 in relation to the availability of WAFS Upper Air grid point forecasts as proposed in Appendix B to this Report; and, b) revision to paragraph of Appendix 2 of ICAO Annex 3 in relation to the availability of WAFS SIGW forecasts as proposed in Appendix B to this Report SN/23 BUFR availability statistics. This Study Note detailed the investigation into why the performance data for Significant Weather (SIGW) BUFR code data on WAFS Internet File Service (WIFS) was lagging behind that of the Secure Aviation Data Information Service (SADIS). Specifically, WAFC Washington statistics in the previous Management Report show that only 94.8% of WAFC Washington BUFR files made it to WIFS by the T+7:00 target, against 99.9% availability of WAFC London BUFR data being available on SADIS FTP by the same target. The discrepancy in the performance statistics is ongoing, as noted in the latest Management Report. WAFC London reports 99.9% once again, while WAFC Washington reports 95.1% of the files arrive by the target. It was concluded that WAFC Washington s WIFS performance monitoring was considered to be at fault, and is under-reporting the timeliness of files on WIFS. Improvements to monitoring software 4

5 are necessary and are being investigated. The meeting supported WAFC Washington's offer to provide a further update at the next WG-MOG (WAFS) meeting. Action agreed 4/WAFS3: Action 4/3: WAFC Washington to provide an update upon further investigation on BUFR availability statistics at the next MOG meeting SN/22 World Area Forecast System Management Report. Both WAFCs continue to provide a valuable and reliable service to the aviation community, as evidenced by the detailed availability, timeliness and verification statistics provided in the WAFS Management Report. Nonetheless, the WAFCs are receptive to feedback and to the continued development of the WAFC portfolio to meet the stated requirements under the Aviation System Block Upgrade (ASBU) methodology, and this is demonstrated through separate papers presented to the WG-MOG/4 (WAFS) meeting. Six scheduled WAFC Significant Weather (SIGW) forecast backup tests were successfully conducted during the period of the Management Report. In accordance with WG-MOG/3 (WAFS) Decision 3/1, WAFC London purposefully delayed issuance of the SIGW forecasts issued on 11th January 2017 by 1 hour. A separate Information Paper was presented to WG-MOG/4 (WAFS) meeting regarding this matter. A detailed, month by month analysis is available in the WAFS Management Report. The meeting acknowledged and supported the modifications made to the layout of the WAFS Management Report, as requested at WG-MOG/3, in particular the less technical summary of the WAFS statistics. The member for IFALPA noted his appreciation of the textual summary of the verification data as presented in the WAFS Management Report SN/28 Volcanic Ash Symbol on Significant Weather Charts. IATA informed the meeting that aircraft operators have a requirement to provide Flight Crew with the applicable and valid SIGW chart for operations above FL100. The SIGW domain is defined as being above FL100. Operators have additional regulatory requirements to provide critical calculation information for both engine out and depressurisation scenarios. The latter is usually calculated assuming descent to FL100 and volcanic ash will be avoided in these scenarios. In active volcanic areas, such as Indonesia, there are daily low level eruptions often extending just several hundred feet above the cone with reported ash height below FL100. The VAAC will correctly issue a Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) for these low level eruptions to ensure all aviation has an advisory. When Flight Crew identify the eruption symbol on the SIGW for which there is no corresponding risk assessment information provided in the flight briefing documentation, it can cause confusion which adds unnecessary effort and cost. 5

6 It was proposed by IATA that this confusion and additional effort can be easily removed if the symbol is added only when the VAA reported ash for FL100 and above, i.e. in the SIGW domain. It was for this reason that IATA requested that the volcanic symbol be included on the SIGW forecasts only when ash is reported above FL100. However, following the discussion it was agreed not to take this request forward since in the future other capabilities will allow the users to create SIGW charts tailored to their own operation Guest Presentations 6 April 2017 Planned Met Office Global Model Upgrades Dr Piers Buchanan, Aviation Applications Science Manager Aviation Applications Highlights Dr Piers Buchanan, Aviation Applications Science Manager Turbulence Climatology Debi Turp s work Discussion: While the UK and US have access to aircraft measured turbulence from a number of airline fleets, there is still a need to increase coverage in data sparse areas to the benefit of all Airline operations. Efforts are underway to increase coverage from AMDAR data. Turbulence Forecast Products UK/US research. Graphical Turbulence Guidance from NCAR/AWC being used in UK since September Icing Potential Products The work identifies the regions of light, moderate, and severe icing, it includes a likelihood versus Severity matrix, which is similar to US FIP product. Verification of WAFC Aviation Hazard Forecasts Dr. Philip Gill, Manager Operational Verification Team Objective verification of turbulence, icing and convective cloud (Cb) using categorical verification with resulting contingency tables. Hit rate versus false alarm rate plotted as a ROC curve. Consider cost-loss ratios gives a relative economic value. Turbulence: WAFC forecasts currently use Ellrod turbulence predictor. Observations are taken from the B747 and B777 GADS dataset for turbulence verification using DEVG. Icing: Satellite products used for truth from Meteosat Second Generation and Himawari-8. Various challenges and assumptions are necessary when using satellite data. Uses a ROC and economic value measure. Convective cloud: Lightning data from Met Office ATDnet ± 30 minutes of forecast time. Also use satellite data severe convection product from Meteosat Second Generation and Himawari-8. Uses a ROC and economic value measure. Mean error in cloud top height forecast versus satellite measurements. GOES-R will be added in 2018 and Meteosat Third Generation in 2021 (with lightning mapper) observations. The meeting determined that it would be useful to have access to year by year verification data with regard to the CB, icing potential and turbulence potential. Accordingly, the meeting agreed that both WAFCs should provide ROC curves for previous years in the Management Report. 6

7 Action agreed 4/WAFS4: WAFCs to include ROC curves for previous years in the management report SN/26 Automated Significant Weather Forecasts This paper proposed automation of the production of WAFS Significant Weather (SIGW) forecasts. This will allow various improvements to be made to the forecasts in terms of timeliness of availability. It also addresses the question relating to inconsistencies between the WAFS SIGW forecasts and the gridded upper air forecasts of CB, icing and turbulence. Some changes to the outputs are recommended in order to generate the automated products. Currently, the SIGW charts are only produced for a single time step (T+24 hours). They are not amendable for any changes to the forecast weather after issuance, and there are inconsistencies in the placement of weather features between the two WAFCs. Together with the automated gridded forecasts there are effectively three different versions of SIGW forecasts currently being issued by the two WAFCs. This proposal provides for a single forecast of SIGW objects that is fully harmonised between the two WAFCs and is consistent with the automated gridded forecasts. Automation of the production of the principle SIGW objects would permit a consistent presentation of the weather features, both in time and space by both WAFCs. It would also allow charts to be produced for each 3-hourly time step, from T+6 to T+36, allowing operators to select the most appropriate forecasts for each flight, or portion of flight. The SIGW data would be updated every 6 hours introducing a significant improvement on the current SIGW process. The WAFCs noted that; A prototype could be available by the next WG-MOG (WAFS) Meeting An experimental mode could be made available to users via ftp type delivery. IATA would, as a matter of course, be invited to participate as a senior user of the user trial. The meeting concurred that further consideration would be required in relation to the following matters: How to most appropriately indicate the forecast position of TCs. It was considered there were challenges with regard to simple interpolation methods. Involvement of the tropical cyclone advisory centres would help in this regard. It was recognised that the current SIGW chart is crude with regard to representing the location of the TC. It was identified that the examples in the Study Note did not have sufficient labelling of jet stream winds, and in some instances labels were omitted. These matters would be expected to be addressed in the prototypes, and in the final product Volcanoes will continue to be shown and TC s should have an arrow showing direction of movement. It was proposed that automatically produced SIGW forecasts should have some sort of quality control or verification. 7

8 Considering the ASBU methodology and the implementation of SWIM, the automated SIGW forecasts should be fully SWIM compliant. The production processes are a separate consideration and the WAFCs should establish appropriate methods of production. It was identified, by IFALPA, that there are a number of very different colour schemes used by different providers, and this makes common and consistent understanding of the data more challenging. It was noted that the intention of the automated SIGW forecasts would be to present the 'user' with data, and it would be for the system to visualise the data. Users, in theory, would be able to select their own colour schemes. It was further noted that, in the cockpit environment, there are likely to be standards relating to display, not least in consideration of dimmed cockpit conditions whilst flying at night. The display of data in the cockpit was considered to be outside the remit of the WAFCs. In consideration of the SN presented by the WAFCs and the welcome feedback noted above, the meeting agreed the following action; Action agreed 4/WAFS5 That the WAFCs be invited to further develop the proposal for automated generation of Significant Weather (SIGW) Forecasts for presentation at the next meeting of WG-MOG: a) A prototype demonstrating the capability of automated digital SIGW forecasts. b) An implementation plan for the provision of an operational automated digital SIGW forecast system. b) In co-ordination with WMO, initiate consideration of the inclusion of WAFC SIGW objects into the IWM schema. c) Draft a proposed amendment to ICAO Annex 3 to include all relevant changes to the SIGW Forecasts for potential inclusion in Amendment 79 (November 2020) for consideration at METP/3. Note: The WAFCs will take into account the matters identified in the preceding paragraph of this Report Guest Presentations 7 April 2017 High Altitude Ice Crystals Nowcasts Claire Bartholomew The Met Office has set up a prototype nowcast product for the HAIC phenomenon. It uses the 3 most recent HAIC satellite product outputs to identify areas where there is a probability of HAIC. The 3 most recent outputs are used to determine how these areas are changing in time. These areas are then advected using an optical flow technique. This is then applied to the latest output to advect it forward to produce a nowcast up to one hour ahead. The nowcast updates every 30 minutes. The satellite product is currently set-up to work with Meteosat Second Generation and Himiwari-8 data. The meeting invited the attendees to keep the group apprised of further developments in this area. Action agreed 4/WAFS6: Invite MOG/6 attendees to present SN s relating to High Altitude Ice Crystals issues at next meeting. Development Tools for Aviation at the Met Office Satellite Applications Group Lorenzo Labrador. 8

9 The Met Office has several active research activities in the satellite applications area to support regulated aviation activities. The Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms tool (RDT) which is based on code from Meteo France provides a tactical thunderstorm forecast that can in some cases, forecast severe convective storms in the UK that are not resolved by numerical weather prediction models. There is also a new global airframe icing product that characterises the likely intensity of airframe icing in a given region and a UK case study was presented. Finally, the overshooting tops satellite product was presented which can be used to identify areas of likely severe convection globally SN/25 WAFS Medium Term Strategy ( ) This paper provided an update on the proposed WAFS developments in the ASBU1 ( ) timeframe. It builds on the broad objectives that were endorsed by the Met Divisional Meeting in 2014 and the further development of these ideas through the Concept of Operations and Roadmap for the WAFS. The 2014 ICAO/WMO Meteorological Divisional (MET/D) meeting established a schedule for improvements to the WAFS. This schedule was linked to the Aviation System Block Upgrade Schedule, and can be found in Appendix C of this Report. The paper discussed issues under 3 headings: Wind, temperature and related dataset; Hazardous weather grids and Data dissemination issues. The meeting discussed how to ensure that appropriate data is available to users. It was noted that with significant increases to data volumes, data must be efficiently extracted. The group noted that it would be beneficial to have more information with regard to the use of probabilities. Whilst acknowledging that higher resolution WAFS data was a future requirement, it was recognised that the TMA environment was outside the WAFS remit. With the provision of temperature and wind data at every 1000 FT, it was proposed that the Tropopause and maximum wind data fields be discontinued in the future since users would be able to calculate the parameters as necessary. In the SWIM environment, users will be able to download and process more relevant and focussed datasets. The meeting considered several further aspects. It was noted that the WG-MOG does not have the mandate to authorise changes to the WAFS portfolio, and that the proposal should be forwarded to the METP as a recommendation from the group. Action agreed 4/WAFS7: WAFCs prepare a paper developing the discussions held at MOG/4 on the WAFS Medium Term Strategy along with a draft amendment to Annex 3 for subsequent consideration by METP/3. Grid Resolution That the WAFCs be invited to produce the new WAFS grids for wind, temperature, geopotential height, and humidity at 0.25 degree resolution in the horizontal and every 1000 FT in the vertical from FL050 to FL600, as specified in Appendix D of this Report. Hazard Grids That the WAFCs be invited to continue the development and implementation of the hazardous Grids to the approximate timescale given in Appendix D of this Report. 9

10 Grid Dissemination That the WAFCs be invited to provide web services (consistent with the SWIM concept).that allows users to download selected data to meet their needs. i) This delivery service will be managed under the SADIS/WIFS management system. ii) This delivery service will adhere to existing SWIM requirements SN/29 Proposed Revision to Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Values in Annex 3 The WAFCs are aware that the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) threshold values for moderate and severe turbulence in ICAO Annex 3 - Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation require revising. This Study Note discussed the need to revise the EDR values in Annex 3. It was also proposed to change EDR threshold values from a standard to a recommended practice, as well as moving EDR values from Annex 3 to the planned PANS- MET or an appropriate manual. The goal is to provide changes for Amendment 79 of Annex 3 (applicable November 2020). The METP/WG-MOG considered the three questions outlined in the SN, and agreed that Option 5, to remove the threshold values from Annex 3, is the most appropriate way forward and further recommended removing EDR threshold values from Annex 3, beginning with Amendment 79 to Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation, and place the information in a more suitable ICAO document Discussion: Option 5 is not an option today, especially since there is no PANS-MET at this time. The group considered that there was value in bringing this information to the attention of the Flight Operations Panel in ICAO and the need to produce relevant guidance material. The group therefore agreed to the following action. Action agreed 4/WAFS8: Review of the Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Values in Annex 3 That an ad hoc group [Pat, Stéphanie, Gabriele, Nigel, Greg] be set up to review the Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Values in Annex 3, and produce a paper that can be presented to METP/3. Additionally consider how this matter can be brought to the attention of Flight Ops Panel SN/15 Draft Update to Regional SIGMET Guide Template in Preparation for Amendment 78 to ICAO Annex 3 This Study Note apprised the meeting of the current status of the Regional SIGMET Guide Template and proposed that an ad hoc group be formed to maintain and update the document in preparation for Amendment 78 to ICAO Annex 3. The meeting noted the feedback from WMO regarding the current activities in relating to SIGMET coordination in the Asia Pacific region. The coordination activities in the EUR region were also noted. It was noted that the Regional SIGMET Guide Template would benefit from the experiences or APAC and EUR SIGMET coordination. Accordingly, the meeting agreed that the WG-MOG would maintain and update the Regional SIGMET Guide Template through the formation of an ad hoc group. The meeting agreed the following Action 10

11 Action agreed 4/WAFS9: Maintain and update the Regional SIGMET Guide Template in preparation for Amendment 78 to ICAO Annex 3. That an ad hoc group [SADIS Manager, Hans-Rudi, Kristin, Mario, Stéphanie, Greg, Gaborekwe] be formed to maintain and update the Regional SIGMET Guide Template in preparation for Amendment 78 to ICAO Annex 3. Note: The ad hoc group to report to the next WG-MOG (SADIS/WAFS) meeting SN/16 Follow-up to Actions Relating to SIGMET Matters Discussed at the METP/2 Meeting This Study Note apprises the meeting of Decision 8/5 from the second meeting of the Meteorology Panel relating to SIGMET and WG-MOG Action agreed 4/WAFS10: Investigate SIGMET matters identified by the METP/2. That an ad hoc group [SADIS Manager, Hans-Rudi, Kristin, Mario, Stéphanie, Greg, Gaborekwe] be formed to a) investigate the matters identified by the METP at its second meeting, listed as i) the sequence number for all SIGMET messages types (WS, WV and WC) for one flight information region; ii) the location of phenomenon given at the beginning of SIGMET with reference to the beginning of validity period; iii) SIGMET cancellation and the remaining time of the original period of validity; and iv) The deletion of the abbreviation LCA as the term is not used in SIGMETs. and, b) propose appropriate updates to Amendment 79 to ICAO Annex 3 and the Regional SIGMET Guide Template for consideration at METP/ Interaction with other METP groups Review of Job Cards related to WAFS Meeting attendees were requested to review the METP job cards in relation to WAFS activities and propose changes to the next meeting Review of MOG Terms of Reference in relation to WAFS 11

12 The MOG Terms of Reference were reviewed during the MOG Work Stream 1 SADIS meeting and some minor updates were agreed. A copy of the updated Terms can be found at Appendix C to the MOG4 SADIS Meeting Report The WAFS CONOPS and Roadmap were discussed and it was agreed that there was no need to review these documents at this meeting the review was completed prior to METP/2 meeting last fall. It was noted that there may be a need to review the Roadmap annually in the future. 4.3 Work required in support of ASBU0 There were no matters noted in relation to ASBU Matters relating to Amendment 78 There were no matters noted in relation to Amendment WAFS Developments in There were no matters noted in relation to WAFS Developments in not noted elsewhere Work required relating to Amendment 79 and 80 There were no matters noted in relation to Amendment 79 and Science capabilities Modelling developments and new capabilities Talks were provided during the meeting on these topics Agenda Item 5: Timetable and Future Meetings of WG-MOG WAFS The Rapporteur suggested holding the next MOG meeting at about the same time in 2018 and asked the attendees if any would be willing to host the meeting. The METP management team schedule METP meetings and once this had been agreed, notification would be provided to the members of the MOG. Agenda Item 6: None Agenda Item 7: AoB Relating to WG-MOG Meeting Close 7.1 The Rapporteur noted that Hans-Rudi Sonnabend will be retiring and that Kristin Kopka will attend future MOG meetings on behalf of IATA/LHS in place of Hans-Rudi and thanked Hans-Rudi on behalf of the group for his long-standing work and commitment in support of SADIS/WIFS/WAFS. Greg further recognized Hans-Rudi s invaluable work over the years. 7.1 The Rapporteur thanked all delegates for helping to achieve a good meeting but stressed that successful meetings are only possible if all delegates provide input and encouraged use of MOG meetings for the submission of ideas, concerns and other matters of interest. 12

13 APPENDI A List of participants NAME STATE ORGANIZATION Khambule, Gaborekwe South Africa South African Weather Service Lechner, Peter New Zealand CAA Zou, Juan China CAAC Murphy, Pat United States FAA Maxson, Bob United States NOAA Baumann, William United States NOAA Strahan, Matt United States NOAA Ouellet, Mario Canada Environment Canada Rennie, Graham IATA Stéphanie Desbios France M t o-france Sonnabend, Hans-Rudi IATA Kopka, Kristin IATA Meise, Gabriele Germany DWD Sievers, Klaus IFALPA Brock, Greg WMO Gait, Nigel United Kingdom UK Met Office Tyson, Chris United Kingdom UK Met Office Hord, Colin United Kingdom CAA Gibbs, David United Kingdom CAA Observer Cerquiera, Flavio Brazil DECEA 13

14 APPENDI B: Proposed revisions to ICAO Annex 3 relating to timeliness of gridded upper air forecast data and Significant Weather (SIGW) forecasts 3. The following revisions to the specified sections of ICAO Annex 3 should be incorporated in a WP, to be submitted to the METP/3 meeting by the WAFCs. 4. 1) Proposed revision to paragraph of Appendix 2 of ICAO Annex 3, as related to WAFC upper air forecasts in grid point format; As stated in Amendment 77: The forecasts of upper winds; upper-air temperature; and humidity; direction, speed and flight level of maximum wind; flight level and temperature of tropopause, areas of cumulonimbus clouds, icing, clear-air and in-cloud turbulence, and geopotential altitude of flight levels shall be prepared four times a day by a WAFC and shall be valid for fixed valid times at 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30, 33 and 36 hours after the time (0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC) of the synoptic data on which the forecasts were based. The dissemination of each forecast shall be in the above order and shall be completed as soon as technically feasible but not later than 6 hours after standard time of observation. As proposed for Amendment The forecasts of upper winds; upper-air temperature; and humidity; direction, speed and flight level of maximum wind; flight level and temperature of tropopause, areas of cumulonimbus clouds, icing, clear-air and in-cloud turbulence, and geopotential altitude of flight levels shall be prepared four times a day by a WAFC and shall be valid for fixed valid times at 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30, 33 and 36 hours after the time (0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC) of the synoptic data on which the forecasts were based. The dissemination of eeach forecast shall be in the above order and shall be completed made available as soon as technically feasible but not later than 6 5 hours after standard time of observation. 2) Proposed revision to paragraph of Appendix 2 of ICAO Annex 3 (in relation to WAFC Significant Weather Forecasts; As stated in Amendment 77: Forecasts of significant en-route weather phenomena shall be prepared as SIGW forecasts four times a day by a WAFC and shall be valid for fixed valid times at 24 hours after the time (0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC) of the synoptic data on which the forecasts were based. The dissemination of each forecast shall be completed as soon as technically feasible but not later than 9 hours after standard time of observation. As proposed for Amendment Forecasts of significant en-route weather phenomena shall be prepared as SIGW forecasts four times a day by a WAFC and shall be valid for 14

15 fixed valid times at 24 hours after the time (0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC) of the synoptic data on which the forecasts were based. The dissemination of eeach forecast shall be completed made available as soon as technically feasible but not later than 9 7 hours after standard time of observation under normal operations and not later than 9 hours after standard time of observation during backup operations. 15

16 APPENDI C: ICAO/WMO Meteorological Divisional (MET/D) meeting; schedule for improvements for the WAFS. 5. The following provides the schedule of improvements for the WAFS, as agreed at the ICAO/WMO Meteorological Divisional Meeting; 16

17 APPENDI D: Proposed development of WAFC upper air gridded forecasts. 6. The following provides a more detailed implementation schedule with regard to improvements to the WAFS, as agreed at the ICAO/WMO Meteorological Divisional Meeting; 17

18 1) WAFS ROADMAP Roadmap for the World Area Forecast System (WAFS) in support of the Aviation System Block Upgrades (ASBU) Implement improved turbulence algorithms including the replacement of turbulence potential with turbulence severity (i.e. EDR) Implement improved icing algorithms including the replacement of icing potential with icing severity Global and regional verification of WAFS forecasts by utilizing data provided by States and user organizations Implement cumulonimbus cloud ensemble based prediction system Implement turbulence type forecasts (e.g. convection, jet-stream shear, terrain) utilizing EDR Implement finer grid resolution for WAFS data Implement calibrated probabilistic forecasts for icing, turbulence and cumulonimbus cloud Provide partial dataset of meteorological information for integration into flight planning, flight management and ATM decision support systems for en-route weather Implement SIGW in ML/GML format as a replacement to SIGW in BUFR format Make available WAFS data via SWIM Provide increased dataset of meteorological information suitable for integration into flight planning, flight management and ATM decision support systems for en-route weather Fully integrated multi-member ensemble hazard forecasts Implementation of the WAFS-database, populated with meteorological information from appropriate Block 0 (through 2018) Block 1 ( ) Block 2 ( ) Block 3 (2031 and beyond) 18

19 models to produce ensemble forecasts of global meteorological information Implementation of high spatial and temporal resolution resulting in improved representations of meteorological information Provide full dataset of meteorological information covering en-route weather suitable for integration into flight planning for en-route operations, flight management and ATM decision support systems Fully automated gridded and SIGW output Full implementation of SWIM for access to WAFS data Retirement of legacy WAFS products and dissemination systems 19

20 2) PROPOSED WAFS VERTICAL LEVELS NOTE: FEWER LEVELS LIKELY FOR HAZARD GRIDS. Flight Level Geopotential Altitude (FT) ICAO Standard Atmosphere pressure level (hpa) Flight Level Geopotential Altitude (FT) ICAO Standard Atmosphere pressure level (hpa) Flight Level Geopotential Altitude (FT) ICAO Standard Atmosphere pressure level (hpa) FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL FL

21 3) PROPOSED WAFS HIGH-RESOLUTION TIMESTEPS NON-HAZARD GRIDS, UNLESS NOTED Time step Comments Time step Time step T+0 For validation and verification purposes T+24 + Hazard Grids T+48 T+54 T+3 Likely to be before issue time T+27 + Hazard Grids T+4 T+60 T+5 T+6 + Hazard Grids T+30 + Hazard Grids T+66 T+7 T+8 T+72 T+9 + Hazard Grids T+33 + Hazard Grids T+10 T+78 T+11 T+12 + Hazard Grids T+36 + Hazard Grids T+84 T+13 T+14 T+90 T+15 + Hazard Grids T+39 T+16 T+96 T+17 T+18 + Hazard Grids T+42 T+102 T+19 optional

22 Time step Comments Time step Time step T+20 optional T+108 T+21 Hazard Grids T+45 T=22 optional T+114 T+23 optional T+120 4) IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Turbulence Severity forecasts available in demonstration mode, in 3 hour time steps at 0.25 degrees, via a web feature service Icing Severity Forecasts available in demonstration mode, in 3 hour time steps at 0.25 degrees, via a web feature service Turbulence and Icing Severity forecasts fully operational Previous generation of WAFS turbulence and icing gridded forecasts retired Probabilistic Cb Cloud, turbulence and icing forecasts available in demo mode, in 3 hour time steps at 0.25 degrees via a web feature service 2022 Probabilistic Cb Cloud, turbulence and icing forecasts fully operational.