Model enhancement & delivery plans, RAI

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1 Model enhancement & delivery plans, RAI Karen McCourt, UK VCP Manager 12 th June 2013

2 Outline Current model outputs & dissemination Future model outputs & dissemination New website for dissemination to RA1/Africa

3 Channels of Communication Currently, two main channels for dissemination of model data: 1. EUMETCAST: Current data provided - Global Model Africa cutout ; ATD lightning (to be visualised) 2. Met Office Website (static pictures): Current data provided - Africa LAM; 4km Lake Victoria model; ATD lightning To be complimented/replaced by new website in 2013 Hoping also to be transmitted over EUMETCAST Training Channel

4 Africa Limited Area Model Plots available on Met Office website Precipitation, pressure, temperature, wind, relative humidity Currently12km 70 level resolution covering northern and central Africa ATD lightning detection Complements SAWS southern Africa 12km domain Features: continuous data assimilation main forecasts 06z,18z to T+ 54hrs radiation-interactive advected dust Met Office Unified Model vn8.3 To be retired September 2013

5 Global Model Africa Cutout Currently available via EUMETCAST 25km/70 levels (40 km for cutout degrees) Covers whole of Africa 18z run, available before 00z Additional parameters requested to be added to EUMETCAST dissemination post RAI dissemination meeting (due September 2013 upgrade): 925mb down to 200mb for RH, Temp, Wind, WBPT, and out to T+60 Global model will be upgraded to 16km in Spring 2014 and will be updated on current/new website following that time. Updates to EUMETCAST are dependent on upgrade cycle Global Model Africa Cutout will replace retired Africa LAM on website

6 ATDnet - Lightning data Arrival Time Difference Network Detect over 70 strokes/second at ranges over 10,000km from network centre Increasing number of sensors better accuracy On current website (will also be on new website). Should be visualised incountry from EUMETCAST following September 2013 upgrade. 15min BUFR bulletin

7 ATDnet - Benefits Still in development and developing science... But should provide some benefits including: Shows the location of strongest updrafts and active storms possible predictor for gusts, downbursts, heavy rainfall Benefits for a number of projects e.g. SWFDP More effective than satellite and cloud top temperatures Other benefits: - Services: aviation, utilities & construction, leisure & retail, insurance, forest & wild fire monitoring - Climatology's

8 4km Lake Victoria Model 4km model developed over Lake Victoria region - operational since July 2011 Available as plots on current website will also be available on new website (availability on EUMETCAST determined by upgrade cycles) Currently looking at possibility of expanding current 4km domain further 4km 70 level domain ~ 4S to 4N, 28.5E to 36E 216x240 grid points; 100s timestep; T+48hours Driven by 25km global model; forecasts available ~0000UTC and 1200UTC UK4 science settings Met Office Unified Model vn8.2 Soil moisture interpolated from global Daily OSTIA lake temperature analyses replaced the ArcLake climatologies in July 2012

9 Mobile Weather Alert Service C. De Wet

10 Lake Victoria Validation of model: Case study 17 th December 2012 T+18 forecast T+18 forecast MSG Satellite OLR 17/12/ UTC Global model 4km model Observations The global model was able to indicate that some event might take place, but the 4km model was able to add detail to the case and increase forecast confidence The 4km model is able to represent fine scale processes in a more explicit way. Due to the size of the grid points, it is also able to represent small scale events in more detail than the global model We still need skill in the global model as the 4km relies on it for large scale forcing

11 Lake Victoria Validation of model: Case study 4 th March th March 2012: Storm over Lake Victoria caused the deaths of 2 fishermen when a boat capsized The Global UM showed some indication of the event in T+6 forecast The 4km UM showed increased indication of the storm in T+6 forecast Global UM 4km UM

12 Lake Victoria Validation of model: Objective analysis 100% SHORTER LEAD TIME LONGER LEAD TIME 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% T+6-12h (global) T+6-12h (4km) T+18-24h (global) T+18-24h (4km) Storm Hit Storm Miss Calm Hit False Alarm Objective analysis (automated storm / no storm decision made by an algorithm) was conducted on model data from February and March 2012 The 4km model was able to capture more storms than the global model The 4km model especially added value at longer lead times hour forecasts, though it did add some more false alarms. Good forecasts are always a balance between getting fewer false alarms without getting more missed events

13 New website New website to complement/replace old website Planned for later 2013 Also aim to transmit over EUMETCAST via Training Channel to provide additional channel for access Similar to old website but some improved functionality overlays of model fields as opposed to static jpegs Been developed in conjunction with SAWS Will include Africa LAM/Global model Africa cutout ; SAWS 12km; 4km Lake Victoria; ATD lightning (overlaid with Satellite) Global model Africa cutout will have several different parameters added including additional Geopotential heights Will be trialled feedback would be appreciated Currently being developed outside Met Office but plan to bring inside and develop further

14 New website Africa LAM

15 New website - ATD

16 Operational Strategy - summary Global model resolution to increase from 25km to 16km (start of 2014) 12km models (Africa LAM) will become redundant as global performance superior More emphasis on focused 4km domains - e.g. Lake Victoria and potential for expansion/ others SAWS is currently procuring a new HPC which should provide capability to run high-resolution convective-scale UM domains, in partnership with the Met Office, and hope to run 4km over South Africa with 1.5km domains centred on large cities (tbc) and retire 12km. Channels of communication: New website to complement/replace old website and to also be available over EUMETCAST Training Channel

17 Summary 2013/14 EUMETCAST 2013/14 Current website* Global Model Africa 'cutout' 25km (40km in cutout) update to parameters in September 2013 upgrade Africa LAM (North Africa 12km) ATD lightning update to visualisation in September 2013 upgrade ATD lightning 4km Lake Victoria *As static pictures *As static pictures New Website* available via internet and EUMETCAST Training Channel** Global Model Africa 'cutout' 25km (40km in cutout) slight variation in parameters. Will move to Global Model Africa 'cutout' 16km in Spring 2014 SAWS 12km Southern Africa ATD lightning overlaid with Satellite data 4km Lake Victoria (possible expansion in East Africa) *pictures and overlay **TBC *pictures and overlay **TBC

18 Thank-you Questions?

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