Advances in weather modelling
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- Buddy Thompson
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1 Advances in weather modelling Robert Fawcett - speaking on behalf of CAWCR Earth-System Modelling and CAWCR Weather and Environmental Prediction May 2013 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
2 Weather prediction at the Bureau Now done with ACCESS the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator numerical weather prediction (NWP) global model large-domain regional model nested within the global model city models (4 km grid size) nested within the regional model tropical cyclone model run as required physical laws of motion, thermodynamics, moisture physics, etc., encoded and discretised as mathematical equations, numerically integrated on very large computers
3 The full ACCESS system Provides a national approach to climate and weather prediction model development Assimilation Dynamic Veg. (LPJ) OBS Assimilation (4DVAR) Atmosphere (UM) N W P Land surface (CABLE) Coupler (OASIS) Chemistry (UKCA) Ocean Carbon (CSIRO) Ocean AusCOM (MOM4) Sea-ice (CICE4) Assimilation (BODAS) OBS The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 3
4 ACCESS NWP: APS1 Rationalisation, higher resolution ( 80km ~ Global (N144 TC 12km Tropical 37.5km Phase 1(APS0): Current domains Australian 12km Regional 37.5 km CityBased 4km ( 40km ~ Global (N320 TC 12km Aust/Regional 12km CityBased 4km Phase 2 (APS1): Global: 80km 40km Regional: o 0.11 o City: 5km 4km UM7.5, more sounders L50 L70 No TXLAPS equivalent (transition nearly complete)
5 APS1 NSW rain event: March 2012 AMOS 2012 Sydney Jan 31 - Feb 3 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
6 2011/2012 Monsoon TC Grant: 6.5 days APS0 APS1 AMOS 2012 Sydney Jan 31 - Feb 3 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
7 ACCESS-G: Monsoon onset Forecast The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
8 TC Lua Base Date: , Base Time: 12UTC Forecast Observation The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
9 ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System, AGREPS AGREPS is being run routinely in research mode 24 members, 23 perturbed + 1 control Regional ensembles receive lateral boundary conditions from global ensemble Regional ensemble run to three days Detailed evaluation is being performed AGREPS business plan has been accepted by Bureau Executive; however source of resources remains issue Operational implementation is unclear Why ensembles? To characterise forecast uncertainty Sometimes the weather is very predictable (e.g., TC Yasi), sometimes it isn t The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 9
10 Global UM Data Assimilation Observation Impact Sangwon Joo, Korean Met A Observation Impacts to NWP forecast Metop: AMSU-A, MHS, HIRS, IASI, ASCAT, GRAS NOAA: AMSU-A: N-15, N-18, N-19 MHS: N-18 HIRS: N-17, N-19 AVHRR AMVs: N-15, N-16, N-17, N-18, N-19 Observation Types METOP NOAA "SONDE" OTHER LEO AIRCRAFT SFC LAND GEO SFC SEA OTHER RO Other LEO: EOS-Aqua AIRS, MODIS AMVs EOS-Terra MODIS AMVs DMSP F-16 SSMIS ERS-2 AMI; Coriolis WINDSAT Total Observation Impact[J/kg] Relative Contribution of Observations to NWP forecast GEO: Other RO: Aircraft: SONDE : Surface land: GOES AMVs; MTSAT AMVs; Meteosat AMVs, CLRs CHAMP, GRACE AMDAR, AIREP PILOT, TEMP, Wind profiler, DROPSONDE SYNOP, BOGUS Observation Types METOP NOAA "SONDE" OTHER LEO AIRCRAFT SFC LAND GEO SFC SEA OTHER RO Surface sea: BUOY, SHIP, TCBOGUS Relative Observation Impact[%]
11 SREP: Experimental 1.5 km system Strategic Radar Enhancement Project Aim for a system capable of using radar data 3dVAR data assimilation (three-hourly initially) Latent Heat nudging Doppler winds Best coverage is over Eastern NSW (Sydney Domain) Main foci so far Radar and QPE quality control Errors in radar QC introduce spurious rainfall patterns Doppler (clear air) wind QC Assessing model performance Configuring 3dVAR and Latent Heat Nudging (ongoing)
12 1.5km: improved topography 12km 5.5km 1.5km
13 Radar+Gauge (observed) 1.5km, 3dVAR & LHN ACCESS-BN APS0 +2hrs +4hrs +6hrs
14 better Fractions Skill Score (Sep2011-Jun2012) Valid 00Z, 03Z, 06Z, 09Z, 12Z 21Z Neighbourhood verification Gives indication of accurate resolution six-hour forecasts 1.5km+3dVAR+LHN ACCESS-A 12km ACCESS-SY 0.05 (APS0) ACCESS-SY 4km (APS1) 4mm/hr 8mm/hr 1mm/hr 12mm/hr
15 1.5km vs ACCESS-A: 10m wind speed 00Z to 09Z
16 1.5km vs ACCESS-A: screen temperature 21Z to 21Z
17 Where are we? 1.5km + 3dVAR +LHN improve short range hourly precipitation forecasts Resolution matters! (both for UM & VAR: 1.5km vs 12km) Latent heat nudging adds value for ~6 hours Better at suppressing incorrect precipitation Can spin up some weaker precipitation Have improved QC of radar reflectivity Doppler winds seem OK so far Clear air winds comparisons encouraging APS1 4km better than APS o
18 So where to? Address model issues Too many intense cells, too little light rain Cloud microphysics & mixing? Assimilation Doppler winds Use more local data (Surface, AMV, Profilers) Hourly Analyses Roughly triple no. of observations used Cloud analysis to improve latent heat nudging?
19 High-impact weather criteria satisfied? YES NO On Demand modelling capability Select event Provide lat/lon Customised highresolution ACCESS run Customised highresolution ACCESS EPS run Operational ACCESS-A Run downstream models Generate customised products The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
20 Concluding comments ACCESS development has made significant progress Operational implementation of NWP component of ACCESS Significantly improved performance Fully coupled ACCESS assembled and tested AR5 runs completed and submitted Development of high-resolution version for severe-weather prediction Radar data assimilation Fire-weather studies Implementation in research mode of the ACCESS ensemble prediction system Assessment of the value of different observations, locations etc. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 22
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