(1997) 1997]. 22 (3) ISSN

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "(1997) 1997]. 22 (3) ISSN"

Edgar Rich
5 years ago
Views:

1 McGregr, Peter and Lckyer, Cliff (1997) The labur market [e 1997]. Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary, 22 (). pp ISSN , This vers is available at Strathprts is designed t allw users t access the research utput f the University f Strathclyde. Unless therwise explicitly stated n the manuscript, Cpyright and Mral Rights fr the papers n this site are retaed by the dividual authrs and/r ther cpyright wners. Please check the manuscript fr details f any ther licences that may have been applied. Yu may nt engage further distribut f the material fr any prfitmakg activities r any cmmercial ga. Yu may freely distribute bth the url ( and the cntent f this paper fr research r private study, educatal, r nt-fr-prfit purpses withut prir permiss r charge. Any crrespndence cncerng this service shuld be sent t the Strathprts admistratr: strathprts@strath.ac.uk The Strathprts stitutal repsitry ( is a digital archive f University f Strathclyde research utputs. It has been develped t dissemate pen access research utputs, expse data abut thse utputs, and enable the management and persistent access t Strathclyde's tellectual utput.

THE LABOUR MARKET Emplyment Past Cmmentaries have nted the many reviss made t fficial estimates f emplyment, cludg thse made 1994, fllwg the select f a revised panel f emplyers wh frm the basis fr

2 THE LABOUR MARKET Emplyment Past Cmmentaries have nted the many reviss made t fficial estimates f emplyment, cludg thse made 1994, fllwg the select f a revised panel f emplyers wh frm the basis fr the prcedures t estimate ttal emplyment. Recently the Department f Emplyment revised its estimates f emplyees emplyment, particularly the cnstruct dustry. In Brita as a whle the reviss added arund 120,0 extra jbs the cnstruct dustry. This helps part t reslve the puzzle f apparently "jbless recvery". Data n emplyment are generally funded upn emplyer-based sample surveys which are benchmarked t a biennial Census f Emplyment. Recently, the results f the tember 199 Census f Emplyment have becme available (the first full Census sce 1981, thugh sample censuses were taken 1984, 1987, 1989 and 1991), and this, tgether with sme reviss t the 1991 Census, has led t reviss f the estimates f emplyees emplyment back t ember 1989 (n a seasnally unadjusted basis). Furthermre, the 199 Census results have been classified accrdg t Standard Industrial Classificat 1992 (SIC 92), which replaces SIC 80, and gives greater disaggregat f the (nw substantially larger) services sectrs. The mst recent emplyment data reflect the effects f tw reviss. First, the results f the Annual Emplyment Survey (AES) have been crprated. The AES replaces the biennial Censuses f Emplyment and was cnducted fr the first time Secndly, the panel f emplyers frm which shrter-term emplyment surveys was updated. At the time f writg a cmplete "backcastg" f the reviss due t the latter change was nt published, and s the mst recent changes shuld be terpreted with cnsiderable caut. The next Cmmentary will prvide a fuller analysis f the changes. The mst recent estimates f emplyees emplyment are given Tables 1 and 2. Table 1 prvides bth the rigal and revised estimates f brad emplyment aggregates. As f the Census date (tember 199) Sctland's estimated ttal f Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary emplyees emplyment was revised dwnwards by 0,0 (the biggest such revis) while the estimate f emplyment the Suth East was creased by 69,0 (the largest upwards revis). Frm the ch 1994 estimates reprted Table 1 it is clear that estimates f male emplyment were revised dwnwards by substantially less (5,0, all part-time) than female emplyment (25,0, f which 14,0 is part-time). This reduct estimated emplyment is cncentrated manufacturg dustries (-44,0 r nearly 1%), thugh this partly reflects a re-classificat f wrkers engeerg and fd manufacturg t service sectrs. This accunts fr the crease the estimate f emplyees emplyment services (f arund 9,0). The mst recent emplyment data are fr ember 1996 and these are als reprted Tables 1 and 2. Hwever, while these figures and thse frm e reflect bth the AES and emplyer panel reviss (see abve), the earlier emplyment data crprate neither. Accrdgly, the changes emplyment discussed belw shuld be terpreted with cnsiderable caut. Overall, it appears as if ttal emplyees emplyment rse by arund 28,0 (1.4%) the year t ember Fulltime male emplyees emplyment are estimated t have fallen by 15,0 (1.5%), and estimates f full-time female emplyment rse by 24,0 (4.6%). Part-time male emplyment estimates fell by 8,0 (8.2%) and part-time female emplyment rse by 27,0 r 6.2%. Table 2 presents nly the revised estimates f emplyees emplyment by sectr because f the difficulties f cmparisn acrss different SICs. Hwever, aga the mst recent data reviss are nly fully reflected the emplyment figures reprted sce e. Over the year t ember 1996 emplyment service dustries rse by nearly 40,0 (2.7%), but fell by 16,0 (.%) Prduct and Cnstruct. The biggest emplyment lsses ccurred Transprt etc. (7,0 r 6.%) and emplyment fell by 6,0 Real Estate etc. (2.9%) and by 6,0 Manufacturg (1.9%). Grwth estimated emplyment was greatest Whlesale and retail trade etc. (18,0 r 6.0%). 22 Vlume 22, N.,1997

Vacancies: stcks and flws Over the year t ch 1997 unfilled vacancies at jb centres Sctland fluctuated between 22.9 (22.0) and 28.7 (0.8) thusands n a seasnally adjusted (unadjusted) basis (Table ).

3 Vacancies: stcks and flws Over the year t ch 1997 unfilled vacancies at jb centres Sctland fluctuated between 22.9 (22.0) and 28.7 (0.8) thusands n a seasnally adjusted (unadjusted) basis (Table ). Vacancies rse by 5.5 thusand the year t ch 1997, n a seasnally adjusted basis. There were still large grss flws, hwever (Table 4). These were f a similar rder f magnitude t the utstandg stck f vacancies each mnth. Fr example, January 1997 flws were 24.7 thusand and utflws were 25.0 thusand. The shrt average durat f vacancies is a sign that emplyers n average d nt fd it difficult t fill psts because f a cntug slackness the labur market (althugh emplyers may still fd it difficult t recruit specific skills particular lcats). Unemplyment: stcks and flws Recent data n the seasnally adjusted unemplyment stck are presented Table 5. The mst recent data, f curse, reflect the new rules gverng eligibility t claim benefit which have been place sce 7 ber 1996 when bth unemplyment benefit and unemplyment-related cme supprt were replaced by the Jbseeker's Allwance (JSA). Sce this significantly reduces the perid ver which claimants are eligible fr benefits, the effect is t reduce the number f registered unemplyed, even the absence f any change underlyg labur market cndits. Over the year t ch 1997 ttal unemplyment fell by abut 27.5 thusand, frm thusand and frm 8.0% t 6.9% f the wrkg ppulat. This represents a reduct the level f unemplyment f 14.1%, althugh it shuld be nted that the majr part f the fall ccurred after the trduct f JSA. Female unemplyment fell by 7.7 thusand ver the year, while male unemplyment fell by 19.8 thusand. Table 6 presents recent flws t and ut f the unemplyment stck. In ch 1997 flws were, at 28.2 thusand, abut 1.0 thusand mre than the same mnth f Outflws were, at 6.4 thusand,.7 thusand mre than January If grss utflws were mataed at their ch 1997 level unemplyment stcks culd turnver less than 5 mnths. The ust 1995 Emplyment Gazette reprted labur frce prjects fr UK regs frm 1994 t 26. Alne amng the standard UK regs Sctland is prjected t experience a small decle its labur frce (f 0.2%) ver the perid. This reflects the cmbed effects f a.7% prjected fall the male and a 4.2% rise the female labur frce. In GB as a whle the aggregate labur frce, cntrast, is prjected t grw by 5.8% aga cncentrated amng females. These prjected trends reflect differences reg's demgraphic structure, activity rates and net migrat patterns. Small creases Scttish activity/participat rates f the scale bserved the recent past, culd quite easily cause the utcme labur frce t differ substantially frm these prjected levels, hwever. The utturn will als be very sensitive t duced migrat flws. DELOITTE & TOUCHE STTISH CHAMBERS' BUSINESS SURVEY EVIDENCE: FIRST QUARTER 1997 Results frm the latest Delitte & Tuche Scttish Chambers' Busess Survey (cverg the first quarter f 1997) suggest risg emplyment manufacturg, whlesale and retail distribut. Whilst emplyment decled cnstruct, fance and turism, the decles fance and turism were less than anticipated. All sectrs expect a net crease emplyment the secnd quarter. The anticipated rise cnstruct is the largest ever reprted. Generally recruitment activity was slightly higher than a year ag. In manufacturg and cnstruct difficulties were evident the recruitment f skilled, technical and managerial staffs. In the service sectr difficulties recruitg suitable staffs were less, except turism, where prblems were widespread. Average pay creases the first quarter ranged frm.% cnstruct t 5.4% turism, with an crease f.5% fance, 4.0% manufacturg and between 4.2% and 4.% distribut. The rate f crease the service sectr was slightly higher than a year ag, hwever, upward pressure n pay creases remas slight. Emplyment Risg emplyment trends cntued, as anticipated, manufacturg and whlesale and, unexpectedly, retail distribut. The anticipated level trend cnstruct did nt ccur, and a net f -6% reprted reducg emplyment. In bth fance and turism the decles emplyment, nets f -4% and -7% respectively, were less than anticipated. Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary Vlume 22, N., 1997

4 All sectrs expect a net crease emplyment the secnd quarter. The anticipated rise manufacturg is the strngest fr mre than tw years, whilst cnstruct the expected crease, if realised, wuld be the strngest crease sce the survey was revised In the service sectr the crease whlesale emplyment is expected t strengthen. In retail the unexpected crease is frecast t strengthen t a net f +8% quarter tw. Over the past 15 mnths part time emplyment has cnsistently risen retail whilst full time emplyment has cnsistently decled. Fr a further quarter there was a slight crease the percentage f manufacturg and cnstruct respndents reprtg shrtages f skilled labur restrictg their utput. Changes manufacturg emplyment affected less than 50%, nevertheless, 27% reprted creasg emplyment and 28% expect t crease emplyment the secnd quarter. Mre than a third reprted creased levels f vertime wrkg. In cnstruct a fifth creased and 26% reprted reducg emplyment. Changes t emplyment the secnd quarter are expected t be at die marg, affectg less than a third. Once aga changes emplyment whlesale affected less than 0%. Firms are slightly mre cnfident their expectats f creased emplyment quarter ne. Changes emplyment retail aga affected less than 0%, nevertheless, 14% reprted creased, and nly 9% reduced emplymenl Firms are slighdy mre cnfident f creased emplyment quarter tw. Once aga net creases part time and temprary emplyment cncealed decles full time emplyment, althugh these changes affected less than 20% f respndents. quarter reflects creases bth full and part time staffs. Recruitment Recruitment activity manufacturg rse t 52%, almst the average fr the first quarter fr the past three years. Difficulties were mre evident the recruitment f skilled, and t a lesser extent technical staffs. Recruitment activity cnstruct was slighdy higher than the average fr the first quarter fr the past three years. Prblems were aga were evident the recruitment f suitable skilled and managerial staffs. Recruitment activity was slightly higher whlesale than the first quarter previus years. Once aga few recruitment difficulties were evident. Whilst recruitment activity retail remaed strnger than previus years difficulties attractg suitable staff were less evident Recruitment activity fance was aga at a lw level. In cntrast almst three quarters f turism respndents sught t recruit a brad range f ccupats. Prblems were widespread the recruitment f suitable skilled and ther manual staffs. Recruitment difficulties have tended t crease slightly cnstruct, but are mst widely reprted turism. As expected changes t emplyment fance cntued t be at the marg, nevertheless, the decle, a net f -4% was the weakest decle sce the survey was revised A net f fancial respndents are frecastg a rise emplyment quarter tw, the first time a rise has been frecast. These changes cntue t reflect creased use f part time and temprary staffs, the dwnward trend full time staff cntued. Changes t levels f emplyment turism were less widespread, with 9% reprtg changes (16% creased and 2% reduced emplyment). The strng rise emplyment frecast fr the secnd Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary Vlume 22, N., 1997

5 f TABLE 1 EMPLOYEES IN EMPLOYMENT IN STLAND: INDUSTRY AGGREGA (Figures square brackets reflect the 1989 and 1990 LFS. The latest estimates reflect the impac a I I (SIC ivsu; SIC Surce (All) Full-time MALE (1,205) [1,018] [1.04] [1,0] [1,027] [1,01] [1,040] (1,04) [1,04] (1,04) [1,021](1,05) [1,015] (1,01) [1,011] (1,026) (1,026) (1,07) (1,020) (1,026) (1,024) (1,02) (1,8) (1,012) (99) (99) (988) {10) (19) (11) 89 (985) 899 (996) 899 (16) 888 (987) 886 (978) P/T (105) (85) (112) (87) (12) (92) (119) (81) (95) (90) (85) (91) (92) (95) 88 (9) 92 (96) 95 (99) 95 (99) 96 (96) (All) Full-time (897) [941] [94] [99] [90] [942] [94] (94) [946] (949) [96] (941) [944] (95) [947] (954) (952) (976) (955) (980) (956) (981) (948) (980) (971) (984) (979) (992) (994) (996) 525 (981) 55 (990) 58 (989) 528 (980) 520 (948) 525 (96) FEMALE P/T (2) [84] [89] [401] [95] [406] [406] (404) [417] (416) [412] (41) [414] (417) [418] (414) (416) (427) (418) (429) (419) (41) (416) (42) (46) (442) (47) (445) (445) (450) 41 (445) 46 (449) 45 (447) 44 (449) 427 (427) Figures with [.] reflect estimates prir t the 1989 Census f Emplyment TOTAL (2,102) [1,959] [1,968] [1,972] [1,957] [1,974] [1,98] (1,986) [1,980] (1,992) [1,956] (1,978) [1,959] (1,984) [1,958] (1,984) (1,978) (2,01) (1,975) (2,5) (1,979) (2,5) (1,956) (1,992) (1,96) (1,976) (1967) (1991) (2) (1996) 197 (1966) 1962 (1987) 1967 (1994) 1945 (1967) 1928 (1947) Prd/Cnst (1-5) C-F (81) [599] [594] [595] [591] [591] [597] (594) [591] (589) [57] (571) [562] (561) [560] (567) (54) (560) (55) (551) (528) (544) (519) (54) (520) (529) {54} (51) (56) (52) 472 (520) 482 (528) 48 (51) 479 (521) 466 (508) P [ [ [ [ [ (4 (4 (4 (4 (4 Figures with (.) reflect

6 Other cmm, scial & pers. activities O-Q <n t NO >n ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON Health Scial Wrk Z r-- NO *n "* «T* Tt CS CS CS CS ci r-» <* >* * -- CS CS CS CS ON ON. CS N t i m i Educat ss 9 c i r t m *» * t NO Tt CS >* TT * * * Nt H O I H <t «n Tf m TABLE 2 EMPLOYMENT: STLAND EMPLOYEES IN EMPLOYMENT (OOO's)* Public adm. & defence: Real Estate rentg Fancial termediat Tr'prt strage & Htels & rest. Wh'sale retail trade & Cnstru ct Elect, gas & water cmp. & bus. cmm.! supply Sc. Sec. L activities K ) - X u. ttf ^ m t N m m m m r- ON ON ON O ON «< CS ON O r* r-~ r- r^ NO r-- < e c ON ON O m ON ON O MM O cn VN r- CM M N (S (N! ON ON ON PI Cl fl ^t m r~ NO CS CS CS CS NO W") Wl r- r~ r- i *t ON r- r- r- NO ON O ON O c e >n r- i ~ CS r- r- t NO t n t -> en en en en CS CS O ON O CS CS CS <* O O r> r- r~mn m ON c -^ CS CS Manufacturg Mg Quarry- Agric. huntg frestry SIC 1992 Mm N ON i CS CS ^t NO NO NO»n NO Q c NO NO ~- --. ~- CS ON en en c en NO NO.S U c tn es e CS CS CS CS en en en en CS OO ON CS *- CS fishg A,B *n NJ Tt M "^ OO en en T* e Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary 26

7 Nv 1995 J Nv 1996 J Nv 1997 J t t p WK)WWkiNtOMNtOWN)MIOMK)NIOIOMNNtOION(OIO(OIONtO '\ L/\ ' k>!») '\ b\ g ^ '*> ^ y '* i ^ A > W ui M Lft W u u u u ^ ^ ^ u y j M N M M M M p H H '-J ^ t Ln ' '-j ' ui b '^. \ b ' (* "~J U I I I 1 I I , ^ p ^ ^ p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p i^wiju^b»w^b^m^bk)k)wwlujii?(j\w^bkii'vjlijww ^ ^ p p p p p p i -tt«bm^b'4ibwk>miw^muuiuiwwwlwb'^w^ NWWWMWMWK!MWIOK!MM(OMWWIOIOMtOtOUMM OS!MM ^l^^^voo^o\0\l^^^fo^ot04^(>pn4^u>4^u>ujujvo<»p - H J M50 M^*Mi»u"^bbb^b(b>bbb(^lnwwu^ixiM'si^'vi p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p '^ '& i^ ij\ b\ be b\ b be be '^ i* 's± 's± 'j± l^ b\ b\ '^ '^ b '^

8 1996 J Nv 1995 J Nv tow(ommm(otows)mk)m p a ^ a u i w y i ^ u i w w y n A M U» b M b b ( j i M u i O i b \ b t p\ 1» t t LA *> LA t tttttttttttttttt O N ^ u i ^ y i W A J i ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ u w i h- L > *t ^ LA b\ '» u> >-» i>j b\ '*» LA J-* ' * i i i i i ppppppppppppp ^j!(>.b\l>)i^juwi-'lntbw i LA L*> i i i i i i pppppppppppppppp j k U H i i V i b H i - ' w u i w w i i b M(ONlOW(OIO g(j(omtoto vlo\uo\*iou4ijimuulu\ b ; : -Jta\a\'--JwLAb\ t Os t» t t <j\ * t tttttttttttttttt 0\~JUlOtUi^^^OJ^WW^UIO^ 4*. **». b O vo b\ LA LA OJ v ^ '-4 '-J <J pp~~ppppp~ppp u i > b " b b v u i u i b w H U i p t» i i 1 I I 1 P t*. u> P pppppppppppppppp H- b ^-J t LA > t ' ' " H- j*. '*» t MMNtOWH OK)tOMMU(0 Oj_ii-'tOOOOOOOvO^-*-N) v ^ '> LA '.^ \ '- '-u '*-'*> b\ t t -». t t to O b b tttttttttttttttt U)*.tOl>JtOtO«->-0*-~~ >-* b\ l- '-J LA '- '** '-J '~J b> ^-J '- p p p p p ^ p LA '*. ^ b *- LA L t '*. L»J '* '** 1 O t '.u '*. p p p p p p p I j b v b b t i l n H w b ^ b k i b u w u

9 rn \is hl detai a s 60 «ud text 8 Q 2 V5 " E=J 2 >2 ONALL tem C < IT-SE timates p Z <* S 2 MP ses &ND-UNE1 s parenthe tj 8 r* P. 5: S s) (Fig TABLE rate % igpp. c * * hange mnths g. SO «> 1> u ge s ;vius Chan pre a (2 «J a Fern «? c S Date end nth c "1 OS <*) ** r-; r' Tf e c rn en 994 Jan ^H n OS IT) * * s CS >* Os i < 1 4 r~ U-l SO SO O; O it SO c' CN O "-1 Os tf s c rorocscscs--i OllN(N(StN<N(sltN 24. r- ' c i i n^ttmpjr; OsOsOsOsOsOsd Osqsprr-^sq >-<' ' I ' ' * OS p *-< <> CS * vq -< O in -' ts st "tvi I i i i i <i <i "*. ^ ""!. ": *. CS CS <' CS - CS O OS OS mmm'*''!- **, Oj p Os CS I-; rf.-t'ssstj-''t-^ r-r~r--t-r~s fa >> e.. b. M > <t2n h i<woz r-h c' VO "f ' <*» > ss * * sq,-, p r- r^ * * s p Jan 1 T _ t-^ * OS s c s r c S ' - j r s - ^ p p p CS O r~, *_ O «>; O;; CN OS CS CS' CS' f-i.-h" ^ O n s >-«rt ''''-^^-I r^sqr^t-^p ''dr^'' OOOOsOsOsOsOsOs Tj-s_ppcp sd'sds'vn * - * T f T f - * T j - T j - r f T f r-ii-jor-rf-r ssd^ < >n Ja te i> c M,-; > 9>a a a F S 0 Op-->^'-;OOOs iSr r t T t \ t " ^ - ; N N <! ' O O O O O O O O O O ' > s p r- c <*; rs r~. r-- i> r 0 ' ^ 0 ' 0 0 ' 0 c sqsqrp^sq^t^prp r t~ s s' if & " ' O OsOsOsOsOsOsOsOsOsOs r^rtrn^^pqs s_sqscr--cstt-^ srj^'sd ^^t-tfttt Q;u,2<2 ->'*, < w >O Os "

10 TABLE 6: UNEMPLOYMENT FLOWS - STANDARDISED, UNADJUSTED: STLAND ('0s) Mnth endg 199 Nv 1994 Jan Nv 1995 Jan Nv 1996 Jan Nv Jan In-flw Out-flw Surce: Department f Emplyment Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary 0 Vlume 22, N.,1997

THE LABOUR MARKET. Employment

THE LABOUR MARKET. Employment THE LABOUR MARKET Emplyment Recent experience f changes in fficial estimates f emplyment data emphasise the need fr cautin amngst thse wh seek t interpret recent labur market trends. The quarterly emplyment