THE LABOUR MARKET. Employment

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THE LABOUR MARKET Emplyment Recent experience f changes in fficial estimates f emplyment data emphasise the need fr cautin amngst thse wh seek t interpret recent labur market trends.

1 THE LABOUR MARKET Emplyment Recent experience f changes in fficial estimates f emplyment data emphasise the need fr cautin amngst thse wh seek t interpret recent labur market trends. The quarterly emplyment estimates, derived frm emplyer-based surveys, are beachmarked n the biennial Census f Emplyment. Results frm the mst recent Census fr tember 1991, have recently becme available and have necessitated revisins t fficial emplyment estimates fr the perid after the previus Census f Emplyment (tember 1989). Recently a secnd phase f revisins has been made, in 1994, (as was anticipated) fllwing the selectin f a revised panel f emplyers wh frm the basis f the sampling prcedures that are used t estimate ttal emplyment. The figures frm tember 1992 in Tables 1 and 2 incrprate these revisins. Fr tember 199 the effect was t increase estimated emplyment by 19 thusand t 1985 thusands. Of this increase nly 5 thusand is attributed t male emplyment s that the biggest revisin is t female emplyment (15,000 r 1.5%). These revisins suggest that, fr the first time, the majrity f emplyees in emplyment in Sctland were females in tember 199. This reflects the lnger term trend decline in male emplyment and rise in female emplyment. The upward revisins in estimated emplyment are cncentrated in part-time female emplyment, the estimate f which is raised by 10 thusand in tember 199 t 445 thusand (a revisin f +2.2%). Nte t that, althugh the numbers f female emplyees in emplyment exceeded the numbers f males in tember (and ember) 199, nearly 45% f female emplyment is parttime whereas less than 10% f male emplyment falls int that categry. The upward revisins t emplyment estimates (in tember 199) are cncentrated in Educatin etc. (+15,000), metal gds (+7,000) and ther manufacturing (+6,000). Dwnward revisin ccurred in Banking (7,000) and Energy and water (,000). The mst recent emplyment data is fr ch 1994 and these are reprted in Tables 1 and 2. Overall, ttal emplyees in emplyment fell by arund 22,000 (1.1%) in the year t e Male emplyees in emplyment fell by 21,000 (2.1%), and ttal female emplyment fell by 1,000 (%). Part-time female emplyment rse by,000 (0.7%) and part-time male emplyment rse by 5,000 r 5.5%. Over the year t e 1994, the biggest emplyment lsses ccurred in ther manufacturing (9,000 r 5.1%), cnstructin (7,000 r (6.5%) and transprt and cmmunicatins (6,000 r 5.%). Emplyment rse by,000 (0.7%) in Distributin etc. Vacancies: stcks and flws Over the year t ber 1994 unfilled vacancies at jb centres in Sctland fluctuated between 18. (15.8) and 21. (22.9) thusands n a seasnally adjusted (unadjusted) basis (Table ). Vacancies increased by.0 thusand ver the year t ber 1994 n a seasnally adjusted basis. The net increase in the stck f unfilled vacancies cnceals much larger grss inflws and utflws (Table 4). These were f a similar rder f magnitude t the utstanding stck f vacancies in each mnth. Fr example, in ber 1994 inflws f 2.5 thusand were virtually identical t utflws (2.6 thusand). The shrt average duratin f vacancies is a sign that emplyers n average d nt find it difficult t fill psts because f a cntinuing slackness in the labur market (althugh emplyers may still find it difficult t recruit specific skills in particular lcatins). Unemplyment: stcks and flws Recent data n the seasnally adjusted unemplyment stck are presented in Table 5. The mst recent data, f curse, reflect the current rules gverning eligibility t claim benefit which have been in place since tember These reflect the extensin f a guaranteed ffer f a YTS place t all thse under 18 wh have nt fund a jb, under the Emplyment Training Scheme. Under 18s are cnsequently nt entitled t claim benefit and s are excluded frm the unemplyment cunt. Over the year t ber 1994 ttal unemplyment fell abut 17.8 thusand, frm 28.7 thusand and frm % t 8.8% f the wrking ppulatin. Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary Vlume 20, N 2, 1994

This represents a reductin in the level f unemplyment f 7.5%. The unemplyment rate is nw at its lwest level since 1991. The aggregate figures reflect a decrease in female unemplyment f 4.

2 This represents a reductin in the level f unemplyment f 7.5%. The unemplyment rate is nw at its lwest level since The aggregate figures reflect a decrease in female unemplyment f 4.6 thusand, and a decrease f 1.2 thusand in male unemplyment ver the year. Table 6 presents recent flws int and ut f the unemplyment stck. In ber 1994 inflws were, at 2.6 thusand, abut 2.9 thusand less than in the same mnth f 199. Outflws were, at 9.9 thusand, 2.6 thusand less than in ber 199. If grss utflws were maintained at their ber 1994 level unemplyment stcks culd turnver in less than 6 mnths. BUSINESS SURVEY EVIDENCE Results frm the latest Scttish Chambers Business Survey indicate an increasing demand fr labur in a number f sectrs. The trends in emplyment were the best quarter three figures since 1990 in Manufacture, Whlesale Distributin and Turism. Hwever, the trends in part time and insecure frms f emplyment cntinue t utperfrm the rises in full time emplyment in all sectrs apart frm Whlesale Distributin. Upward trends in emplyment were again reprted in Manufacturing, Whlesale and Turism. Against expectatins the fall in emplyment in Cnstructin cntinued. Dwnward trends in emplyment were again reprted by a net f Retail and Turism respndents. Oil respndents reprted a re - emergence f the dwnward trends in emplyment, and a further decline is frecast fr quarter fur alng with a rise in shrt time wrking. In manufacturing the rise in emplyment, a net f +9% was strnger than anticipated, althugh these upward trends were nly evident in firms emplying less than 200. Firms emplying abve 200 reprted a slight decline in emplyment levels. Nevertheless, increased levels f vertime wrking were nted. A net f +9% expect the current rise in emplyment t cntinue thrugh t the end f the year.. Once again the expected rise in Cnstructin emplyment did nt ccur, and a net f -5% reduced emplyment, n change t this decline is frecast. The levels f vertime wrking fell, and these dwnward trends are expected t cntinue. In Distributin emplyment rse abve expectatins in Whlesale Distributin, althugh firms emplying less than 19 reprted a fall in emplyment levels. Overall this rise is frecast t cntinue, but t weaken in the furth quarter. Hwever, in Retail the decline in emplyment cntinued, as frecast, at a net f -2%. Nevertheless, the smallest firms, thse emplying less than 19 and thse emplying between 100 and 200 reprted rising trends in emplyment. Overall, emplyment is expected t cntinue t fall in Retail in the furth quarter. A net f +4%reprted increasing emplyment in Turism, less than had been frecast. But this rise is anticipated t end in quarter fur. Elsewhere in the service sectr the lng running dwnward trend in emplyment in Finance cntinued. In bth the Retail and Finance sectrs the verall falls in emplyment cncealed increased use f part time and temprary staffs, and in Turism the increased use f such staffs far exceeded the verall rise in emplyment. Recruitment activity was generally at a higher level than a year ag in Whlesale Distributin, Turism and Finance, but at the same levels in Manufacturing, Cnstructin and Retail. Difficulties in recruiting suitable staffs were evident in the recruitment f managerial emplyees in Manufacturing and Turism. Difficulties in recruiting skilled manual staffs were widespread in Cnstructin and significant in Manufacturing and Turism. 50% f Manufacturing respndents sught t recruit staff, and activity was mst frequently directed twards the recruitment f skilled manual, technical and managerial staffs. 44% f Cnstructin reprted seeking t recruit, again activity was mst cmmnly directed twards the recruitment f skilled manual emplyees. In the service sectr 44% f Whlesale, 49% f Retail, 8% f Finance and 78% f Turism respndents endeavured t recruit staffs. Extensive difficulties in recruitment were nly apparent in the recruitment f skilled staffs in Turism. Pay increases were reprted in all main sectrs, althugh the percentage increasing salaries was lw in Finance and Turism [11% and 17% respectively]. The rising prprtin f the larger manufacturing firms reprting difficulties is recruiting skilled labur as a factr likely t restrict utput, suggests that upward pressures n wages Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary Vlume 20, N 2, 1994

3 may be a feature in manufacturing in Elsewhere in the service sectr slightly mre than a fifth f Whlesale and Retail Distributin increased pay. Hwever in prductin sme 5% f Manufacturing and 52% f Cnstructin nted pay increases. Average pay increases ranged frm 2.% in Finance, t.0% in Whlesale and Turism,.7% in Manufacturing and 4.1% in Retail. In all sectrs in quarter three remained belw the average increases fr 199. Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary 26 Vlume 20, N 2, 1994

4 TABLE 1 EMPLOYEES IN EMPLOYMENT IN SCOTLAND: INDUSTRY AGGREGAT (Figures in square brackets reflect the 1989 and 1990 LFS. The latest estimates reflect the impact SIC 1980 All MALE f which P,T All FEMALE f which P/T TOTAL Prd/Cnst 1-5 P (1,205) (1,015) [1,016] [1,018] [1,04] [1,0] [1,027] [1,01] [1,040] (1,04) [1,04] (1,04) [1,021] (1,05) [1,015] (1,01) [1,011] (1,026) (1,026) 1,07 (1,020) 1,026 (1,024) 1,02 (1,008) 1,012 (99) (105) 85 (112)87 (12)92 (119)81 (95) (897) (914) [924] [941] [94] [99] [90] [942] [94] (94) [946] (949) [96] (941) [944] (95) [947] (954) (952) 976 (955) 980 (956)981 (948) 980 (971) (2) (87) [76] [84] [89] 01] [95] 06] 06] 04) 17]16) 12]1) 14] 17) 18] 14) 16) ) ) 41 16) 42 6) (2,102) (1,929) [1,941] [1,959] [1,968] [1,972] [1,957] [1,974] [1,98] (1,986) [1,980] (1,992) [1,956] (1,978) [1,959] (1,984) [1,958] (1,984) (1.978) 2,01 (1,975) 2,005 (1.979) 2,005 (1,956) 1,992 (1,96) 1, (81) (587) [601] [599] [594] [595] [591] [591] [597] (594) [591] (589) [57] (571) [562] (561) [560] (567) (54) 560 (55) 551 (528) 544 (519) 54 (520) Surce: Department f Emplyment Gazette Figures within [.] reflect estimates prir t the 1989 Census f Emplyment Figures within (.) reflect estimates prir t the 1991 Census f Emplyment

5 .2 Is fi \C ^ * n r- \n s x-~ r- n M} «v \D vc \D >fl VO * VD w- it- Ci- sti- vti c r- c <* r- t r» r v-i\«ninc^2>'"~v> <?* ^sr;ct>, S, Prsr?TC-CCiG.Ci< N!iS-. (N ->r~-g><ntt y s i^* i^t" ^» *> ON O O O O xxof^nrt^l^ c<no~*tn»/iv-)c 'OwSOO"", """~*"~'' - 'c^ononr- c.2 =a : S m- 5 a' Q ^ «m r- TT rt r~ c c c c c c n v ^ ^ ^ - - ' ' *~* c en --< > v s ts <t «rt <f» *. 5Cc~ Cg g S 5 - ^_^,, > ^ cj\ s s i i i r^i s 2 ^-.^.^..^r^r-r^r-ss S &0 c^ " w -S O d* r~-<rmcc -«-w-ic «'^CCwCC' H ' H '"'", ", t-w in s s s s r~ ^-^^^^Mfunin/iTtin CS_H^H^_-.^: '"' <"' 'ccr~cr~~h <~«*-^^ "PSc8cSC5^^2;-2; _ ^ 1 I*! m ^ <7> a «* <* c c c,, _ ' O CO <S CN * "* T)- Tf Tt 5 Os Ov cvisc - «"> "^ in in,,, O D M M O O h s O n N O O ^, < _H ^»n m m s m m in m u»n SO SO SO SO s a P..5 OO OO 00 O (S N N N T l _ CO CN, <N,_,,i>r--sOsr^r~insns r^1. N Cl W O P m y i r M N l S M C I N M C J t S N O I " (M <M N N il-iiji i 8- -^ crt a ^ c Q 2; 0} XI r- ** nte Si 00 a F LU _, c «J s CL a O 55 OS gs C/5 Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary 28 Vlume 20, N 2, 1994

6 f B n O! Z Tl 5" c s? a J * O ** m 5 S" "2. g J? 8 S g g g ^ «^ p p ^ p» p * 9 p c»» a ^ ^» ^ ^ ^ ^ «M» p ^ ^ ^» «^ - j ^ bw^wbwwu!^i^(»bwlfl^lft^^lhlfllftb^^w'v]«i^uilftff'!»la^ z p p p O O O O O O O O p p O O O f ' p p O p ' ppoooo p p O p O un»u'vib6-'i»u-» u k i A» ^ k i u b b u ^ i f t 6 «^ w w b ^ b i j j w ^ < c" IT Z =7> ST p b w ^ ^ ^ b ^ w w w ^ A ^ - b w t b ^ L A ^ ^ ^ w O i ^ b ' ^ ' ^ l w ' ^ a a ^ w w l NJNJOO^^O^-Ja^LAi^lsOO^OOOOOvOOOOOO-^JLftOOO^^OOOOOOOOLft^LftO ^ ^ ^ N > L «l * ~ l ' i U > b e b ^ ^ ~ ^ ^ h J b b ^ l ' i k > ^ b ^ b b ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ b ^ ^ r p p p p p p p p p ^bsa*^^gnb>l/i^ln^^l/ib>bvbv^l/iuil/iu>u>^lrt^l/«ln^^^laa^^

7 TABLE 4: VACANCY FLOWS AT JOBCENTRES, STANDARDISED, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED - SCOTLAND In-flw Out-flw 000s f which: Placings Date Level Average change mnths ended Level Average change mnths ended Level Average change mnths ended 1991 Jan Nv 1992 Jan Nv 199 Jan Nv 1994 Jan J Surce: Department f Emplyment Nte: Figures frm ber reflect the revised basis f seasnal adjustment frm Nvember 1992 Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary 0 Vlume 20, N. 2, 1994

8 TABLE 5 : SCOTLAND - UNEMPLOYMENT - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED (excluding schl leavers (000s) (Figures in parentheses reflect estimates n tember 1988 basis - see text fr details) Date Male Female Ttal Change since previus mnth Ave. change ver 6 mnths ending Unemp. rate % f wrking pp Jan Nv 1992 Jan Nv 199 Jan Nv 1994 Jan Surce: Department f Emplyment Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary 1 Vlume 20, N. 2, 1994

9 TABLE 6: UNEMPLOYMENT FLOWS - STANDARDISED, UNADJUSTED: SCOTLAND (000s) Mnth ending 1991 Jan Nv 1992 Jan Nv 199 Jan Nv 1994 Jan In-flw Out-flw Surce: Department f Emplyment Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary 2 Vlume 20, N. 2, 1994

(1997) 1997]. 22 (3) ISSN

(1997) 1997]. 22 (3) ISSN McGregr, Peter and Lckyer, Cliff (1997) The labur market [e 1997]. Quarterly Ecnmic Cmmentary, 22 (). pp. 22-0. ISSN 6-7866, This vers is available at https://strathprts.strath.ac.uk/52884/ Strathprts