This project has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number

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1 This prject has received funding frm the Eurpean Unin s Hrizn 2020 research and innvatin prgramme under grant agreement number

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4 There is a seemingly paradx in futures thinking: Future Thinking Tgether it is quite difficult and nt very cmmn as either methd r skill. it is a natural functin f the mind and parts f the brain are dedicated t it (natural capacity fr future cnsciusness) There are several blckages t future cnsciusness, especially sharing it as we want t d here: Scial habits and tabs that inhibit its functin thrugh custms, language and dminant scial expectatins. Mst peple try t avid facing future uncertainty. This will shw itself in denial and avidance f questins. Pwer and security matters: nbdy likes t cnsider a future which remves their pwer psitin r livelihd. The Three Hrizns methd helps get arund sme f these difficulties by prviding a cntext in which peple can legitimately share different perspectives bth amngst each ther and internally in their wn minds.

5 Overlk f the Three Hrizns prcess

6 Three Hrizns Methd

7 The First Hrizn H1

8 The Third Hrizn H3

9 The Secnd Hrizn H2

10 All Three Hrizns are always present Aspects f H1 will persist in any new business as usual; aspects f H3 are always evident, if nt bvius, in current discurse and argument and in all kinds f activity n the fringes f the dminant system; while H2, like a mving brder between past and future, is all arund us in examples f innvative alternative practice. The First Hrizn s cmmitment is t survival. As the current, dminant, system it maintains its dminance, even in a changing wrld, either by crushing Secnd and Third Hrizn innvatin, r by c-pting it t supprt its established system. This resistance t change impacts n the transitin t H3: ften it leads t the innvatins in H2 being mainstreamed in rder t prlng the life f the existing system, rather than t help mvement twards a new system.

11 and there are several variants The three line diagram used s far here is what we might call the standard versin which is useful fr intrducing the cncept the ideal frm f change. Hwever, there are different variants that it is useful t bear in t pint ut that change int the future is nt always straightfrward: 1. Challenge and Transfrmatin 2. Cllapse and Slw Recvery 3. Capture and Extensin 4. Oversht & Cllapse

12 Fur variants f three hrizns patterns

13 Three Hrizns shaping future cnversatin The Three Hrizns mdel ffers a simple way int a cnversatin abut: the dminant system and the challenges t its sustainability int the future, i.e. the case fr change (Hrizn 1); the emerging future state r the imagined system f which we can identify elements in the present that prvide encuragement and inspiratin (Hrizn 3); the nature f the tensins and dilemmas between H3 visins and H1 reality, and the subtle prcesses f change, new ways f wrking, new capacities, new structures even, required t navigate the transitin between them; the requirement t develp a mature perspective that accepts the need bth t address the challenges t the First Hrizn and nurture the seeds f the Third. This is nt an either/r, gd/bad discussin. We need bth t keep the lights n tday, and t find a way f keeping them n in the future in very different circumstances.

14 Behaviural Insights (BIs) Behaviural ecnmics,, BIs and nudging are smetimes used as if they have the same meaning and reach. Althugh cnnected, they are fundamentally different. Behaviural ecnmics is a scientific discipline that applies psychlgical insights int human behaviur t explain ecnmic decisin-making. BIs result frm multidisciplinary research in fields such as ecnmics, psychlgy and neurscience, t undestand hw humans behave and make decisins in everyday life. Nudging literally means «gentle pushing», in a behaviural sense is an easy and cheap interventin that mdifies the chice architecture, altering the peple s behaviur in a predictable way, while preserving the same range f chice ptins.

15 Lking frward We need mre research n the lng-term impacts f behaviurally-infrmed plicy interventins. Such research will be imprtant fr understanding the limitatins and the ptential f current interventins, but als fr explring ways in which behaviural interventins can be made mre effective at achieving sustainable, lng-term effects. Surce: JRC EU Plicy Lab, Behaviural Insights Applied t Plicy. Eurpean Reprt 2016, page 42.

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23 Think abut the 4 ENABLE.EU energy fields: energy efficiency, renewable energy cnsumptin, heating and cling and mbility Cnsider the rle f institutins at lcal, reginal, natinal and EU level Highlight the differences and similarities amng cuntries

24 Rules fr a gd dialgue 1. Think as a citizen/member f the cmmunity and nt slely n persnal interest 2. Treat everyne with respect 3. Listen carefully t what thers have t say and ask int details 4. D nt interrupt each ther 5. Take part in the discussin 6. Fcus n the subject 7. Keep cmments brief and t the pint 8. Take a break when yu need t 9. The grup facilitatr decides whse turn it is t speak and regulates the time 10.The grup facilitatr is neutral and desn t participate t the debate