Volcano Pilot Long-term Objectives

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2 Volcano Pilot Long-term Objectives Stepping-stone towards the long-term goals of the Santorini Report (2012): 1) global background observations at all Holocene volcanoes; 2) weekly observations at restless volcanoes; 3) daily observations at erupting volcanoes; 4) development of novel measurements; 5) 20-year sustainability; and 6) capacity-building

3 Volcano Pilot Short-term Objectives 1) Demonstrate the feasibility of integrated, systematic and sustained monitoring of Holocene volcanoes using space-based EO; 2) Demonstrate applicability and superior timeliness of space-based EO products to the operational community for better understanding volcanic activity and reducing impact and risk from eruptions; 3) Build the capacity for use of EO data in volcanic observatories in Latin America as a showcase for global capacity development opportunities. Deformation of several volcanoes was detected in an arc-wide InSAR survey of South America by Pritchard and Simons, 2002.

4 Volcano Pilot main components Three main components: A. Demonstration of systematic monitoring in Latin America; B. Development of new products using monitoring from Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories initiative C. Showcase monitoring benefits for major eruption during Deformation of several volcanoes was detected in an arc-wide InSAR survey of South America by Pritchard and Simons, 2002.

5 Key outcomes 1) identification of volcanoes that are in a state of unrest in Latin America; 2) comprehensive tracking of unrest and eruptive activity using satellite data in support of hazards mitigation activities; 3) validation of EO-based methodology for improved monitoring of surface deformation; 4) improved EO-based monitoring of key parameters for volcanoes that are about to erupt, are erupting, or have just erupted, especially in the developing world (where in-situ resources may be scarce) Deformation of several volcanoes was detected in an arc-wide InSAR survey of South America by Pritchard and Simons, 2002.

6 Objective A Priority Area There are about 310 Holocene volcanoes in Latin America (including México, Central America, the Caribbean, Galápagos, and South America). About 37 are considered active with recent (or ongoing) eruptions or ground deformation. Highest priority volcano targets of the CEOS pilot project 1. Central America and northern Andes (Juliet Biggs, Bristol): Colima, Mexico, Arenal, Costa Rica, Nevado delruiz, Colombia Galeras, Colombia,Tungurahua, Ecuador, Soufrière Hills, Montserrat Turrialba, Costa Rica, Pacaya, Guatemala, Popocatapetl, Mexico Nevado de Machin, Colombia,Cotopaxi, Ecuador,Reventaor, Ecuador,Masaya, Nicaragua), Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat Central and southern Andes (Matt Pritchard, Cornell): Cerro Auquihuato, Peru, Sabancaya, Peru,Ubinas, Peru, Isluga, Chile,Sillajhuay, Chile, Uturuncu, Bolivia,Putana, Chile,Láscar, Chile,Cordon de Puntas Negras, Chile, Lastarria, Chile, Laguna del Maule, Chile,Copahue, Argentina,Llaima, Chile, Villarrica, Chile,Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Chile, Cerro Hudson, Chile. 3. Galapagos: Fernandina, Wolf, Darwin, Alcedo, Sierra Negra, Cerro Azul

7 Objective A Data Availability - RADARSAT-2 SAR data have been made available RADARSAT-2 archive Products has been agreed at 4 volcanoes: Tungurahua, Cotopaxi, Reventador, and Cordón Caulle. - Nine scenes from Cordón Caulle have been processed (spanning dates in ). 83 scenes for Tungurahua, Cotopaxi and Reventador have been ordered. - COSMO-SkyMed data (200 products/year) will be available pending a signed agreement - ASI started background acquisitions on Tungurahua,Reventador, Cotopaxi, Nevado del Ruiz - TerraSAR-X and ALOS-2 data : need to understand how to access - CNES: Pleaides requested for Bardabunga and Hawaii / Spot 5

8 Objective A Status and Results RADARSAT-2 interferogram from Cordon Caulle volcano, Chile, spanning December 12, 2012 March 27, 2013 (left: phase difference; right: phase difference overlain on amplitude image). The volcano erupted in This interferogram shows posteruptive inflation which would not otherwise have been known without the CEOS pilot program. Figure courtesy of Matt Pritchard (Cornell University)

9 Objective A (Latin America regional study) Status and Results Although other datasets are not yet available over Latin America, CEOS Volcano Pilot investigators have been working with publically available data (or data they had access to via other means) to assess volcanic activity in the region. Results include: 1) Topographic change at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, where eruptive activity since 1995 has resulted in repeated growth and collapse of a lava dome 2) Mass wasting (landslide) behavior at Arenal volcano, Coast Rica

10 Topographic change on Montserrat, Lesser Antilles associated with the eruption of Soufriere Hills Volcano from Results from ALOS-1 imagery spanning Lava dome location Did not observe deformation at 14 of the 15 volcanoes in the Lesser Antilles Arc from Large InSAR signals at Montserrat due to emplacement of volcanic material at the surface Compare pre-eruptive DEM to topography derived from posteruptive InSAR (from ALOS) Detect maximum 210 ± 30 m of lava dome growth and up to 200 m of valley infilling by pyroclastic flows Results courtesy of David Arnold (University of Bristol)

11 Evidence of thin-skinned mass wasting at Arenal Volcano, Costa Rica TerraSAR-X imagery landslides of 5 11 meters in thickess time-averaged displacement rates up to 12 cm/yr near summit landslide motion varies through time Results courtesy of Susanna Ebmeier (University of Bristol)

12 2012 Nicoya Earthquake causes greater area covered by rockfalls TerraSAR-X amplitude differences 16 landslides of thickesses: 5 to 11 metres time-averaged displacement rates up to 12 cm/yr near summit landslide motion varies through time Results courtesy of Susanna Ebmeier (University of Bristol)

13 Objective B (Volcano Supersites) Status and Results - Permanent volcano Supersites in Hawaii, Iceland, and Italy are receiving data from multiple SAR satellites and groundbased instruments, with results appearing in the peerreviewed literature - Sinabung volcano eruption ( ) identified as an event Supersite in September, SAR data have been provided to interested - Candidate Supersites are currently be evaluated, including Ecuadorian volcanoes, New Zealand volcanoes, and Reunion Island - New results from recent Icelandic eruption are spectacular!!!

14 Photo credit: M Parks Bárðarbunga volcano 2014 activity COSMO-SkyMED and RADARSAT-2 interferograms: Generated using images obtained as part of the Iceland Supersite

15 Bárðarbunga volcano Bárðarbunga is one of Iceland s most active volcanoes analysis of tephra from soil profiles suggests a historic eruption frequency of ~5 eruptions/100 years (Óladóttir et al., 2011) ASI re-tasked CSK satellites in July 2014 at the request of the University of Iceland to commence acquiring both ascending and descending images every 16 days over Bárðarbunga volcano and also over Askja volcano extending south to the tip of Vatnajökull glacier Volcanic unrest commenced with the onset on earthquake swarms and significant ground movements (registered at several continuous GPS sites in the area), on the 16 th August 2014 The first eruption commenced at 00:02 on the 29 th August, during which a small fissure opened in Holuhraun (directly north of the Dyngjujökull glacier) extruding a small basaltic lava flow, however activity lasted only several hours; ceasing around 4 am A second fissure eruption commenced on the morning of the 31 st August, at 5:15 am. This eruption was accompanied by lava fountains and the extrusion of both A a and pahoehoe lava flows The eruption is currently ongoing and lava flows now cover an estimated area of ~19 km 2

16 Seismicity since the 16 th August. Preliminary data analysed by the SIL seismic monitoring group of the Icelandic Meteorological Office, as of the 9 th September, 2014 (IMO, 2014). Source:

17 COSMO-SkyMED descending interferogram spanning the period 10 th August th August Each fringe represents ~1.5 cm of displacement in the satellite's line-of-sight. NordVulk) ) Processing carried out using CSK Products, ASI (Italian Space Agency) , delivered under an ASI license to use. COSMO-SkyMed images have been provided in the framework of the Geohazard Supersite Initiative.

18 COSMO-SkyMED ascending interferogram spanning the period 11 th August th August Each fringe represents ~1.5 cm of displacement in the satellite's line-of-sight. NordVulk) ) Processing carried out using CSK Products, ASI (Italian Space Agency) , delivered under an ASI license to use. COSMO-SkyMed images have been provided in the framework of the Geohazard Supersite Initiative.

19 COSMO-SkyMED descending interferogram spanning the period 13 th August th August Each fringe represents ~1.5 cm of displacement in the satellite's line-ofsight.

20 August 8 September 1, 2014 RADARSAT-2 Results courtesy of Andy Hooper (University of Leeds)

21 Objective B (Volcano Supersites) Hawaii results - SAR Data from Hawaii are not only used to map deformation, but also lava flows through coherence - Lava flows are currently threatening homes in Hawaii, so tracking their progress is of critical importance for hazard monitoring and mitigation

22 Objective C (Large eruption) Status and Results As of September 2014, no major episode of unrest or episode of eruptive activity worldwide has been deemed appropriate for study as part of the CEOS Volcano pilot (Bárðarbunga would have been appropriate but is covered by the Iceland Supersite). We are tracking global volcanism through Smithsonian Institution reports and will be ready to pounce when a suitable episode manifests itself.

23 Communication Submitted abstract to Dec AGU Session: Reducing Vulnerability from Latin American Volcanoes Through Enhanced Monitoring Efforts, Utility of regional satellite volcano deformation monitoring in Latin America: The CEOS pilot project by Francisco Delgado 1, Matthew E. Pritchard 1, Juliet Biggs 2 and David Arnold 2, (1)Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States, (2)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom Abstract preparation for ISRSE 2015 (Juliet Biggs) FRINGE 2015 (multiple investigators)

24 Original Milestones and Schedule 2014: Begin studies at Supersite volcanoes. Begin collection of data over Latin America data and development of derived products. Establish ties with users and work with them to define procedures for delivering products. 2015: Provide derived products to appropriate users in Latin America (e.g., VAAC, Observatories) and agencies working on Supersite volcanoes. Collect feedback from users about the data and derived products, and use the feedback to refine monitoring strategies. Provide initial evaluation of pilot results to the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction. 2016: Receive reports from Latin American users on derived products and adjust as needed. Evaluate results from Supersite studies. Develop broader space-based EO strategy using insights from pilot in a formal report.

25 Progress towards milestones 2014: Supersite studies are healthy, and data are beginning to be collected over Latin America but few datasets have been made available thus far. Ties with users in Latin America therefore have yet to be firmly established. Impact on timeline: Strengthening ties with users in Latin America will begin in 2015, once more data are available. It may not be possible to collect feedback from these users until late in 2015 or early in Initial evaluation of pilot results for the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction will probably include only examples of how data can be used to detect volcanic unrest (e.g., Cordon Caulle) and track eruptive activity (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland).

26 CHALLENGES - Data availability for Objective A is limited (currently only RADARSAT-2, COSMO-SkyMed is pending). We may have to re-prioritize the volcanoes exampled, since an arc-wide study may not be possible by the end of Pleiades acquisitions are pending over Hawaii, but not yet scheduled - Establish link with users / collect feedback OPPORTUNITIES - Supersite data are flowing smoothly - Students are available to work on pilot data and have already achieved excellent results (see Cordon Caulle example)

27 Coordination with ACC Telcon in July with Claus Zehner discussing linkages Interest in showcasing complementarity ACC is in contact with Washington and Buenos Aires VAACS and providing products Pilot establishing which products are being provided by ACC and whether through NOAA complementary products are also required Main users of Volcano Pilot are observatories examining volcano data main users of ACC products are VAACS and airlines looking at atmospheric products for impacts on aircraft flights ACC and Volcano Pilot will continue to share information and ensure there is no overlap or duplication between efforts, especially in Latin America.