MultiHazard Process Chains: Nepal and other hotspots
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1 MultiHazard Process Chains: Nepal and other hotspots Jeffrey S. Kargel (Thanks to NASA Disasters program and David Green for support) 6 Sep 2016 Glaciers Glacial Lakes Seismicity Meteorological floods Volcanoes
2 (1) Future possible CEOS/GEO pilots on high mountain disaster risks -- Regions proposed for CEOS multihazard extended monitoring/analysis: i) Nepal Himalaya and transborder areas of Tibet and India: seismic-landslideglacier-glacial lake-meteorological hazards (major hazard points/examples: Imja Lake, Lower Barun Lake, Rolpa Lake, Kodari Pass, Koshi Tappu wetlands) ii) Cascades: volcano-seismic-meteorological-landslide-glacier hazards (major hazard points, examples: Mts Rainier, Hood, Baker, and downstream areas) iii) Northern Andes (Colombia-Ecuador-Peru): volcano-seismic-landslideglacier-glacial lake-meteorological hazards, imopacts on people, infrastructure, and ecosystems (major hazard points, examples: Cordillera Blanca (glaciers and lakes), Corapuna (Peru), Cotopaxi (Ecuador), Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia), others) -- Nepal examples: i) Gorkha earthquake glacier-landslide-river blocking, ii) Gorkha earthquake-ice avalanche-glacial lake outburst hazard, iii) Monsoon and construction related landslides and dammed lake outbursts (2) NASA-supported, CEOS-related high mountain disaster workshops: -- Satellite Observations Could Cover Multi-Process Glacier Hazard and Disaster Hotspots: Nepal, Cascades, and Northern Andes, pre-agu, Dec. 11, San Fran. -- Satellite Observations to Cover Multi-Process Glacier Hazards and Disasters Hotspot in the Nepal Himalaya, Kathmandu, Nov. 2, 3, or 4 possible. (3) HMA team, tool development: Glacier Lake Accelerated Melting (GLAM)
3 Palcacocha Aluviones in Huaraz: 1702, 1725, 1869, 1941, 1952, 2003 Huaraz
4 Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia lahars, tragedy (23,000 killed) and Coropuna, Peru (6377 m) seismicity, heat flow, eruption history, next tragedy?
5 Taplejung landslides, June 10-11, 2015: Steep slopes + monsoon = deadly landslides (57 killed) blocked river landslide dammed lake outburst flood killed fish wild swings in price of fish
6 Construction on slopes + Geological weaknesses + monsoon +- earthquake = Landslides + lost hydropower production (economic losses) Far Eastern Nepal: 5 MW run-of-the-river hydropower plant construction and recurrent problems with landslides.
7 16 ka 24 ka moraine (Periche I moraine, Finkel et al. 2003) Enormous ice lossses have occurred 300 m thinning 19 th century ice-cored end moraine
8 Growth of Imja Lake, Nepal,
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10 The sine function would produce a scattering of points about the polynomial curve that roughly matches the disperson around the curve.
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12 Measurement errors are probably overestimated
13 Imja / Amphulapcha Lakes, Nepal: 2014 & 2012 Data Sounding Points Imja Lakes Amphu Lapcha Lake 2014 Total (kayak-mount) 53, Omitted points: (-30,354) (-886) Kayak validated points: 23, Total (USV-mount) Omitted points: (-1338) - USV validated points: Total (ice bore measure) 61 - Omitted points: (-28) - Ice bore validated points: Somos et al. Total (boat-mount) 10,020 - Omitted points: (-854) - Boat validated points: 9,166 - TOTAL VALIDATED: 41, Black: our USV and kayak survey Red: Somos et al (survey date 2012) Yellow: Our plumb line measurements Details at west end of Imja lake and ponds on the end moraine
14 Imja Lake bathymetry, Oct 2014
15 Glacier and High Mountain Hazard Dynamics in Nepal Thulagi L. Imja L. Lower Barun L. Thulagi L. Lower Barun L. Imja L. Thulagi Lake bathymetry, glacier dynamical assessment, hydrological and energy balance modeling Lower Barun Lake bathymetry, glacier flow speed assessment Imja Lake and glacier dynamics and the Imja Lake lowering project
16 Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project (CFGORRP) Implementing Authority Nepal Army
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20 Gorkha earthquake multihazard process chains M7.8 quake on April 25, 2015, epicenter west of Kathmandu, ~12 km deep, blind fault M7.3 aftershock on May 12, ~9000 killed, 97% of fatalities in Nepal. Others in India, China, and Bangladesh. >4300 significant landslides/ice avalanches. Some dangerous river blockages, upstream inundation floods, and landslide dammed lake outburst floods Many glacial lakes are in the heavily shaken zone: but no seismic aluviones! Destroyed temple in Kathmandu
21 Earthquake-triggered snow, ice and debris avalanche and potential river blocking, starting with ridge-top failure (PGA ~0.12 g) Pre-quake, Digital Globe/Google Earth
22 Post- and pre-earthquake image pair. The landslide is bright red. Above: WorldView satellite image, May 8. NDWI technique was used to map the lake (red outline) and distinguish it from shadow. Societal Concern: The concern was that an outburst flood could reach downstream villages (Ghapsya village 3.1 miles, Ghap village 3.7 miles, terraced agricultural fields 2.5 miles, 3.7 miles Nepal/Tibet border). The lake drained naturally, with little damage.
23 Langtang Valley landslides
24 Devastating landslide pathway, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks, Mosaic by Dan Shugar In J. Kargel and 63 others, SCIENCE (2016)
25 Sentinel 1 InSAR displacement, pre- and post-quake
26 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
27 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
28 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
29 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
30 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
31 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
32 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
33 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
34 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
35 Devastating landslide, Langtang village Photos by David Breashears/GlacierWorks Before/after image pair
36 Proximal deposit, Langtang village Photo by David Breashears/GlacierWorks
37 Airblast zone, Langtang village Photo by David Breashears/GlacierWorks
38 Airblast zone, blown-down forest, Langtang Valley Photo by Randall Jibson/USGS
39 4312 landslides mapped by a large volunteer team of satellite image analysts (Kargel et al. 2016). Their distribution is bookended by the primary M7.8 shock and the largest aftershock (M7.3). 98% of landslides occurred where shaking PGA > 0.16 g.
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41 Glacial lakes show very few effects. No evidence of seismically and landslide triggered drainage. Fig. 12 in Kargel and 63 others, 2016, SCIENCE
42 Detailed systematic survey for damage done by shaking of glacial lakes lakes observed -- Koji Fujita/students -- Umesh Haritashya/students -- 9 had some minor rockfalls -- No lakes experienced an observable outburst
43 Gorkha earthquake effects on glacial lakes Prior expectations were that a M7.8 earthquake and M7.3 aftershock situated near glacial lakes would have caused damage and aluviones (glacial lake outburst floods) Minor damage (cracking) observed on engineered parts of the Tsho Rolpa moraine dam. No aluviones occurred! Why? -- Fewer landslides than anticipated = fewer potential triggers -- Topography shielding (scattering and absorption of seismic waves). -- Seismic wave attenuation in valleys Number and severity of seismically induced geohazards depend on earthquake details, specific geometry of mountain slopes and glacial lakes relative to the quake epicnter and hypocenter.
44 Thank you!
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