Geohazards and disaster risk reduction

Transcription

1 Geohazards and disaster risk reduction Susanne Sargeant 8 November 2017

2 Overview University and my PhD Seismology at BGS Learning other skills Working at the interface between science and resilience building The bigger picture

3 Why natural hazards? Armero, 13 November 1985 (photos courtesy of USGS)

4 University and my PhD : Undergraduate degree in Geophysics at UEA (with a year abroad at the University of Colorado) Dissertation on the 1995 Egion (Greece) earthquake : PhD Modelling shallow earthquakes using teleseismic broadband data

5 Seismology at BGS (2002-present) PGA hazard map for 475 year return period (from Musson and Sargeant, 2007) The Lyell Centre, Edinburgh Hired as a seismic hazard analyst after my PhD Scientific research: seismic wave attenuation, earthquake source properties, magnitudes Comparison of distance corrections for the UK, southern California and Norway (from Ottemoller and Sargeant, 2013)

6 Learning other skills Lots of opportunities at BGS to work outside my science area have allowed me to develop new skills and broaden my network The poster session at Frontiers of Seismology, Edinburgh, 2009 Poster from the 2014 round of the BGS mentoring scheme

7 Working at the interface between science and disaster risk reduction Office of the UN Stabilisation Mission to Haiti after the 2010 earthquake Port-au-Prince was severely damaged by earthquakes in 1751 and 1770 Many humanitarian organisations were not aware of this... Or did not know where to get information on the earthquake threat We need more information about earthquakes in Haiti from institutions that are able to explain the risk in greater detail (NGO DRR advisor, 2009)

8 Bangladesh NERC-funded Knowledge Exchange Fellowship to increase the use of earthquake science in operational decision-making in Concern Worldwide Bangladesh identified as a region of concern My plan A: an earthquake hazard information pack You can give us the science but what do you expect us to do with it? (Macroseismic information from Martin and Szeliga, 2010)

9 Bangladesh: increasing the use of eq information in NGOs (2012) Focus group discussion Objectives: To raise awareness of eq threat in Bangladesh For staff to be better prepared To consider the potential impact of eqs on operations (beneficiaries, projects, systems and logistics) Emphasis on learning together Identifying potential hazards in the office

10 Outcomes of the training Led to new individual and organisational preparedness activities, informed Concern s response to the earthquake in Nepal, other training curricula, eqs included in various programmes, action plans and proposals. Examples of focus group outputs

11 Supporting self-recovery after disasters Self-recovery in post-disaster shelter is not the exception but the norm. Following earthquake, flood or storm, the majority of affected families will inevitably rebuild their homes themselves, using their own resources, but there is little support from the international community to encourage good safe building practice. Rebuilding in Budhatum VDC, Nepal (April 2017) Parrack et al. (2014)

12 Self-recovery after the 2015 Gorkha earthquake 25 April 2015 (7.8 Mw) Widespread heavy damage, c people killed and injured Many houses completely destroyed and widespread landslides Damage to a village in Ree VDC, Dhading District (Kathmandu Post, 2016) [Geological information from the Soil and Terrain Database for Nepal (Dijkshoorn and Huting, 2009]

13 Findings from Nepal Dynamic environment with multiple hazards Some people have lost confidence in their environment Impact of hazards on (esp. roads) is having a major impact on shelter recovery Landslides affecting roads in Darkha VDC Local knowledge and experience is playing a significant role in self-recovery Use of scientific knowledge is limited

14 The Bigger Picture The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction ( ) sets out global priorities for action to reduce disaster losses for the next 15 years Science and scientists have a prominent role within it Understanding hazards and risk Multi-hazard, multi-disciplinary, multi-stakeholder Building capacity and technology transfer Ensuring that decision makers are able to access and make use of science Co-production of knowledge It will take geoscientists with a wide range of skills (not just scientific) to achieve the Sendai goals

15 Thank you

16 Earthquake scenarios for Dhaka 7.5 Mw on the Madhupur Fault 8.0 Mw on the plate boundary (PB-2) 6.0 Mw under Dhaka Building damage estimates for Dhaka 7.5 Mw 8.0 Mw 6.0 Mw Moderate Beyond repair 166,570 (51%) Moderate 75,218 93,605 (29%) Beyond repair Moderate Beyond repair 136,434 53,989 (from the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme)

17 Plan B: from information to action Ensuring information provision supports the wider DRR process How is information absorbed? Transforming scientific information into action A collaborative approach Concern s Humanitarian Principles and Practice workshop (Ethiopia, 2010) + +