Remote Sensing to Manage Geohazard Risks

Transcription

1 Remote Sensing to Manage Geohazard Risks Dr Colm Jordan Head: Earth & Planetary Observation & Monitoring Platform Manager: Global Geological Risk September 2016, Lloyds Satellite Remote Sensing for Disaster Risk Reduction

2 The British Geological Survey World s first Geological Survey, established 1835 Approx 680 staff (500 multi-disciplinary scientists) Research and commercial activities in the UK and overseas 50% NERC funded + 50% External Income Nottingham Edinburgh Cardiff Wallingford London

3 What are Geohazards? Sinkholes

4 What are Geohazards? Landslides Landslide Potential Significant Moderate Low to nil Upto 350,000 UK homes at risk 57 billion of housing stock Insurance for landslide damage average ~ 400m/year [Source Gibson et al 2013] Kilometers

5 What are Geohazards? Volcanoes e.g. Eyjafjallajokull 2010 European economy lost US$5bn (OECD)

6 What are Geohazards? Some geohazards may be induced by human interaction with the landscape All geohazards are potential risks

7 Risk Management - Simplified Workflow Identify / locate the geohazard Where does remote sensing (Earth Observation) fit in? Demonstrated via case studies Understand the geohazard Assess the (potential) impacts Build resilience Manage the risk Ability to adapt to and recover from hazards Identification, assessment & prioritisation of risks

8 Ground Motion Aldbrough, East Riding of Yorkshire: 20m high cliffs Rapidly eroding (1.16 m/year from and 2.16 m/year from ) ~ upto 4 million m 3 /year

9 Hazard Identification using UAVs

10 Modelling Future Risks

11 Japan Tohoku Tsunami (2011) Hazard map of Shizugawa, Minamisanriku, Myagi. Yellow: max inundation Extent from the 1960 Chile earthquake/tsunami Pink: expected max Inundation from the Myagi Offshore scenario Blue: max inundation resulting from the Tohoku event

12 Minamisanriku a confined valley

13 Sendai Airport (4/8/2010)

14 Sendai Airport (12/3/2011) GeoSpatial Information Authority of Japan

15 Sendai Airport 11 th March AP/Kyoto News

16 Flow Directions

17 Flow Directions

18 Sediment Distribution B41 0.1cm silt. Quartz grains and rare lithics evident. B34 2cm silt overlying fine to medium-grained sand layer. B28 2cm dark grey silt overlying 0.5cm vegetation. 0.1cm fine to mediumgrained sand at base. B21 11cm laminated fine to medium-grained sand and silt. 4 distinct sand laminae. B15 14cm paddy field silt partially eroded overlying Jogan era ash (yellow band) 869AD Jogan tsunami sand. B9 6cm laminated medium-grained sand overlying paddy field silt. B2 24cm laminated medium-grained sand

19 Nepal Earthquake & Landslides (2015/6) >3,500 earthquake- Induced landslides identified using satellite imagery Monitored throughout the monsoon Recovery and rebuild costs US$6.6 billion (Nepal National Planning Commission) Annual GDP growth rate will decrease from 4.5% to 1.7% (World Bank)

20 Caribbean Landslides & Floods hazard identification Annual analyses from space provided beneficial information on recovery of the terrain vs recurrence intervals Inventories supplied to planning departments and engineers for inclusion in mitigation strategies In 2010 Hurricane Tomas (St Lucia) caused US$336 m of damage, equivalent to 43% of GDP

21 Caribbean Landslides & Floods risk identification Existing map Pleiades satellite image New map

22 National-level Landslide Risk Profiles for Sub-Saharan Africa Stage 1: Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Senegal & Uganda Stage 2: Cabo Verde, Mali, Malawi & Mozambique Earthquake-triggered landslide hazard map for Uganda, 2050 Much of the source data were Earth Observation

23 Increased Funding for Resilience to Risks BGS has instigated a Global Geological Risk Platform The UK s overall aid is expected to increase to 16.3bn in 2020