Storm surge forecast activities. in the Northern Adriatic Sea and in the lagoons
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1 Storm surge network forum ISMAR Venice November 2013 Storm surge forecast activities in the Northern Adriatic Sea and in the lagoons Marco Cordella ISPRA Venice Lagoon Service Castello 4665, Venice Italy
2 Storm surge network forum ISMAR Venice November 2013 Summary 1) Tide modelling at ISPRA 2) Operational tide forecast models 3) Forecast evaluation 4) Case study 5) Future challenges
3 1) Tide modelling: statistical approach INPUT DATA Observed values (every hour): atmosferic pressure at Porto Torres, Genova, Bari, Venezia (RMN) wind speed from SE/NE sectors at Piattaforma (RMLV) Forecast (every 24 hours): ECMWF (6 hours) or BOLAM (1 hour): wind speed at Piattaforma (SE/NE sectors) atmosferic pressure at Porto Torres, Genova, Bari, Venezia (RMN) tide at RMLV stations RMN input RMLV input Grado P. Salute Burano Lido D.S. Chioggia PT_CNR P. Caleri Output: tide forecast for RMLV tide gauges
4 1) Tide modelling: Deterministic approach The model Simplified version of SHYFEM 2D (Shallow Water Hydrodinamic Finite Element Model) Forcings Wind and pressure forecast (ECMWF resolution: 0.5 degrees, every 6 hours) Wind and pressure forecast (BOLAM - resolution: 0.1 degrees, 1 hour) LR elements HR elements Ocean depth proximity to the coastline VL-FEM The Mediterranean sea grid provides surge forecast for each node at hourly time steps. The Venice Lagoon grid is forced by the Mediterranean one.
5 2) Operational models running at ISPRA Running models Weater Forecast/ Model ECMWF (55 km) BOLAM (11 km) Statistical 1 2 Deterministic Low Resolution (LR) Deterministic High Resolution (HR) 4* 6* 5* 7* Models ID Nr. ECMWF (4*, 5*) Standard Data assimilation LR grid 4s 4a HR grid 5s 5a BOLAM (6*, 7*) Standard Data assimilation LR grid 6s 6a HR grid 7s 7a
6 2) Models scheduling Nr. of forecasts ECMWF/ day BOLAM/ day Sites of forecast Nr. of daily forecasts Nr. of yearly forecasts Statistical Deterministic Low Resolution (LR) Deterministic High Resolution (HR) Number of daily and annual forecast output currently running at ISPRA Model # Total number of forecasts per year: ~ Operational since 1 Feb Oct , 5 Mar , 7 Oct 2012 Data Assimilation Aug 2012 Operational models and starting period
7 e medio/indice accuratezza (cm) errore medio colmi (cm) errore medio cavi (cm) errore medio/indice accuratezza (cm) 3) Forecast evaluation: stat models Punta Salute - operativo 18/3/ /6/2013 Errore medio e indice di accuratezza su tutti i dati Statistico_BOLAM Statistico_ECMWF Mean error (ε) and accuracy index (ε±2σ) at different times ECMWF BOLAM anticipo (ore) tutti < >120 5 Punta Salute - operativo 18/3/ /6/ Errore medio e indice di accuratezza 0sui dati >80 cm Statistico_BOLAM 40-5 Statistico_ECMWF Mean error per tide classes ECMWF forcing Mean error per tide classes BOLAM forcing Max tide statistico BOLAM -20 statistico ECMWF tutti > <-20 Min tide statistico BOLAM statistico ECMWF
8 Err medio (cm) Err medio (cm) Err medio- indice accuratezza (cm) 3) Forecast evaluation: det models Punta Salute - operativo 1/10/2012-1/10/2013 Confronto ECMWF - BOLAM anticipo (ore) ECMWF BOLAM Mean error (μ) and accuracy index (μ±2σ) at different times. ECMWF BOLAM 5 tutti < >120 5 tutti < > ass 7 ass Mean error per tide classes ECMWF forcing Mean error per tide classes BOLAM forcing
9 3) Forecast evaluation: comparison Statistical and deterministic models: a comparison The first 12 hours are better evaluated by the statistical approach. In the following hours the quality is comparable. Note that for tide classes > 100 cm the deterministic approach fits better the observed tide.
10 4) A case study: when the choice becomes difficult
11 tide level (cm) 4) Case study: 11th Feb 2013: forecast Venice Punta Salute - forecasts of the 11th Feb PS 01 red PS 02 BOL PS 04 std PS 04 ass PS 05 std PS 05 ass PS 06 std PS 06 ass PS 07 std PS 07 ass Feb Feb Feb 2013
12 tide level (cm) 4) Case study: 11th Feb 2013: observations Venice Punta Salute - forecasts of the 11th Feb Obs PS PS 01 red PS 02 BOL PS 04 std PS 04 ass PS 05 std PS 05 ass PS 06 std PS 06 ass PS 07 std PS 07 ass Feb Feb Feb 2013
13 tide level (cm) 4) Case study: 11th Feb 2013: solved? Venice Punta Salute - forecast of the 11th Feb 2013: synthesis Obs PS Me Me+σ Me-σ Feb Feb Feb 2013
14 tide level (cm) 4) Case study: 11th Feb 2013: the choice Venice Punta Salute - forecast of the 11th Feb 2013: the adopted choice Obs PS PS 05 ass Feb Feb Feb 2013
15 5) FUTURE CHALLENGES
16 5) What s next? Open issues To do list Observed data INPUT IMPROVEMENTS New observation sites: RON buoys in the Adriatic (wind, pressure, wave obs data) Tide gauges in the eastern shores (tide, pressure, wind) New weather forecasts (e.g. Bolam at 7.8 km and Moloch at 2.5 km grid) OUTPUT IMPROVEMENTS New forecast sites: all Venice Lagoon inlets, River Po Delta; Surge maps for the entire Northern Adriatic Sea; Obs need for a better forecasting
17 What for? ANALYSIS AND PLANNING FORECASTING DECISION Exposure maps Risk maps Territory awareness Susceptibily maps Weather forecasts Alerting systems Observation networks Coastline defences and planning Storm surge forecasting models Civil protection action schemes The debate is open..
18 THANK YOU Real time data Tide forecast
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