SOLAR POWER FORECASTING BASED ON NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION, SATELLITE DATA, AND POWER MEASUREMENTS
|
|
- Juniper Leonard
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 BASED ON NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION, SATELLITE DATA, AND POWER MEASUREMENTS Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz Energy Meteorology Group, Institute of Physics, Oldenburg University Workshop on Forecasting, Balancing and Scheduling of Renewable Energy Sources in India Shangri-la Hotel, New Delhi 5 May 2014
2 CONTENT (I) German power sector today (II) Components of solar power forecasting system (III) Irradiance forecasting based on satellite data (IV) Combination of numerical weather models and satellite data (V) PV power forecasts (VI) Forecasting of Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) (VII) Advanced techniques 2
3 GERMAN POWER SECTOR TODAY NET POWER PRODUCTION FROM WIND AND SOLAR, 2013 Installed capacity, end of 2013: PV: 35,7 GW Wind: 34,7 GW (compare with average load: ~63 GW) Power production 2013: PV: 29,7 TWh (5,3 % of net electricity consumption) Wind: 47,2 TWh (8,4 % of net electricity consumption) Max. combined production from wind & solar ( ): 35,9 GW = 52 % of load (PV 19,2 GW, Wind 16,7 GW) Partial supply of load from wind and solar up to 50% each Problem: peak load Excess production very likely to occur soon Data: Fraunhofer ISE, BSW, DEWI 3
4 GERMAN POWER SECTOR TODAY NET POWER PRODUCTION FROM WIND AND SOLAR Maximum of combined production from wind & solar 18 April ,9 GW Data: EEX 4
5 GERMAN POWER SECTOR TODAY NET POWER PRODUCTION FROM WIND AND SOLAR Maximum of combined production from wind & solar 14 April ,8 GW Data: EEX 5
6 GERMAN POWER SECTOR TODAY MONTHLY PRODUCTION SOLAR, WIND 2013 TWh Max: 8,2 TWh 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 Min: 3,9 TWh SOLAR 2,0 1,0 WIND Min: 1,7 TWh Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sources: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Leipziger Strombörse EEX 6
7 GERMAN POWER SECTOR TODAY DAILY PRODUCTION SOLAR, WIND 2013 SOLAR Max: 0,2 TWh Min: 0,002 TWh WIND Max: 0,56 TWh Min: 0,006 TWh SOLAR & WIND Max: 0,58 TWh Min: 0,022 TWh Sources: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Leipziger Strombörse EEX 7
8 GERMAN POWER SECTOR TODAY MAXIMUM* POWER SOLAR, WIND 2013 * 15-min averages SOLAR 24,0 GW WIND 26,3 GW Sources: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Leipziger Strombörse EEX 8
9 BALANCING OF SOLAR POWER ACCORDING TO RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ACT Mandatory purchase of all available renewable electricity by grid operators Marketing and balancing of PV power by transmission system operators (TSOs) based on their respective share of the all German electricity supply (horizontal burden sharing) Additional option of direct marketing of PV power is getting more important Need for regional forecasts control areas of German transmission system operators 9
10 BALANCING OF SOLAR POWER BY TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATORS PV power feed-in, Germany day-ahead: selling of PV power at the European Power Exchange (EPEX) - hourly contingents - 12:00 for the next day hourly forecast for next day 10
11 BALANCING OF SOLAR POWER BY TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATORS PV power feed-in, Germany day-ahead: selling of PV power at the European Power Exchange (EPEX) - hourly contingents - 12:00 for the next day intra-day: trading of electricity at the EPEX - hours or 15minute periods - until 45 minutes before delivery forecast errors influence prices 15min resolution forecast for next hours 11
12 BALANCING OF SOLAR POWER BY TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATORS PV power feed-in, Germany day-ahead: selling of PV power at the European Power Exchange (EPEX) - hourly contingents - 12:00 for the next day intra-day: trading of electricity at the EPEX - hours or 15minute periods - until 45 minutes before delivery forecast errors influence prices online-estimation from measured values remaining deviations are adjusted with balancing power 12
13 REGIONAL PV POWER PREDICTION OVERVIEW OF SCHEME Cloud motion from satellite Numerical weather prediction PV power measurements Solar irradiance forecast Simulation of PV power Regional PV power forecast 13
14 IRRADIANCE FORECAST USING SATELLITE DATA CLOUD TRACKING/CLOUD MOTION VECTORS Cloud index from Meteosat images (Heliosat methode) Meteosat Second Generation (HR VIS) Resolution: MSG (HRV): 1.2 km x 2.2 km (Germany) 15 Minuten 14
15 IRRADIANCE FORECAST USING SATELLITE DATA CLOUD TRACKING/CLOUD MOTION VECTORS Cloud index from Meteosat images (Heliosat methode) Meteosat Second Generation (HR VIS) Cloud motion vectors (CMV) from identification of pattern in consecutive images Extrapolation of cloud motion to forecast next cloud index image 15
16 IRRADIANCE FORECAST USING SATELLITE DATA CLOUD TRACKING/CLOUD MOTION VECTORS Cloud index from Meteosat images (Heliosat methode) Satellite-based solar irradiance map Cloud motion vectors (CMV) from identification of pattern in consecutive images Extrapolation of cloud motion to forecast next cloud index image Solar irradiance from forecasts of cloud index images using the Heliosat method 200W/m 2 900W/m 2 16
17 EVALUATION OF IRRADIANCE FORECASTS DATA BASIS Period Measurements irradiance measurements of 270 stations* in Germany Forecasts DWD ECMWF CMV Combination of forecasts * operated by DWD and meteomedia GmbH 17
18 EVALUATION COMBINATION OF ECMWF, DWD & CMV* FORECASTS * CMV: Cloud Motion Vectors I in W/m 2 date 18
19 EVALUATION COMBINATION OF ECMWF, DWD & CMV* FORECASTS * CMV: Cloud Motion Vectors I in W/m 2 date Combination of forecasts increases accuracy! 19
20 EVALUATION: 3-HOUR FORECASTS COMBINATION OF ECMWF, DWD & CMV FORECASTS CMV, CMV- mean Germany rmse ECMWF 41W/m 2 rmse CMV 34W/m 2 3h ahead: Satellite-based forecasts show improved results than NWP-based forecasts (MVF == CMV) 20
21 EVALUATION: 3-HOUR FORECASTS COMBINATION OF ECMWF, DWD & CMV FORECASTS CMV, CMV- mean Germany rmse ECMWF 41W/m 2 rmse cmv 34W/m 2 rmse combi 25W/m 2 improvement * vs ECMWF improvement * vs CMV 39% 26% Combination shows significant improvement: cc error(ecwmf,dwd) =0.51, cc error(ecwmf,cmv) =0.29 * 21
22 UNCERTAINTY OF COMBINED FORECASTS RMSE AS FUNCTION OF FORECAST HORIZON CMV forecasts superior to NWP based forecast up to 4 hours ahead CMV forecast superior to persistence of cloud situation from 2 hours onwards significant improvement with combined model Calculation was done only for solar zenith angle < 80 and only for hours for which all models were available (depending on the forecast horizon) 22
23 UNCERTAINTY OF COMBINED FORECASTS RMSE AS FUNCTION OF FORECAST HORIZON significant improvement by combination of forecasts with different time horizons more pronounced for regionally smoothed forecasts 23
24 REGIONAL PV POWER PREDICTION OVERVIEW OF SCHEME Cloud motion from satellite Numerical weather prediction PV power measurements Solar irradiance forecast Simulation of PV power Regional PV power forecast 24
25 REGIONAL PV POWER PREDICTION OVERVIEW OF SCHEME Cloud motion from satellite Numerical weather prediction PV power measurements Solar irradiance forecast Simulation of PV power Regional PV power forecast 24
26 PV POWER FORECAST DATA BASIS Control area 50Hertz December 2011 November 2012 Hourly data PV measurements: Monitoring data meteocontrol: > 1000 PV systems, approx. 20% of installed power Single site evaluation: 80 selected systems No measurement of overall PV power feed-in in control area! 25
27 ESTIMATION OF PV POWER FEED-IN IN CONTROL AREA Upscaling using Meteocontrol monitoring data all systems in the control area considering spatial distribution with 2-digits post code resolution* considering distribution of PV system size * overall installed power Pnom (given by 50Hertz) Forecast data basis 06:00, 1-3 days 11/11-05/12: ECWMF only 06/12-11/12: ECMWF & DWD 11:00, intra-day 09/12-11/12: combination of NWP and CMV * based on EEG data,
28 EVALUATION control area single sites bias rmse bias rmse Intra-day 0.9% 4.9% 1.1% 12.0% Day-ahead 0.7% 5.7% 1.2% 12.8% 3 days 0.5% 6.2% 0.9% 13.4% daylight values only, normalization to installed power 27
29 EVALUATION ANNUAL COURSE OF FORECAST ERRORS Largest rmse values: February April
30 EVALUATION ANNUAL COURSE OF FORECAST ERRORS Largest rmse values: February > Snow 29
31 EVALUATION COMBINATION OF NWP AND SATELLITE-BASED CMV FORECASTS o NWP, 06:00 x combi, 11:00 o NWP, 06:00 x combi, 11:00 Large improvement by combination of models! 30
32 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 31
33 FORECASTING OF DNI CSP needs a high DNI forecast accuracy especially in cloud-free cases with high DNI (different from, e.g., PV) Good forecasts in case of low DNI are required (-> good water cloud mask forecast) as well as for medium DNI situations ( ->good forecast of cirrus cloud optical properties) CSP technologies generally operate only in areas with high DNI and low cloud cover depending on the geographical region of interest and its vicinity to global aerosol sources, the priority is set either on good aerosol or cirrus forecasts The MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project of ECMWF in the scope of GMES provides analysis and forecast of aerosols integrated into the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) 32
34 FORECASTING OF DNI PRINCIPLE Measurement data Clear sky model ECWMF irradiance forecast Hourly site-specific GHI forecasts Postprocessing Direct/ diffuse model DNI forecasts 33
35 FORECASTING OF DNI MODEL FOR DIRECT IRRADIANCE Parameterization for beam fraction b = Ibeam /G in dependence of k* cloudy situation clearsky broken cloud effect k*-range separated in three intervals: Smoothed with weighting function 34
36 FORECASTING OF DNI EVALUATION (2005 & 2007) Stations in Southern or Central Spain, DNI: rel. rmse: 40% 50% Stations at the Northern Spanish coast, DNI: rel rmse: >70 % 35
Country scale solar irradiance forecasting for PV power trading
Country scale solar irradiance forecasting for PV power trading The benefits of the nighttime satellite-based forecast Sylvain Cros, Laurent Huet, Etienne Buessler, Mathieu Turpin European power exchange
More informationFORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS
FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +, Stefan Bofinger * University of Oldenburg, Institute of
More informationIrradiance Forecasts for Electricity Production. Satellite-based Nowcasting for Solar Power Plants and Distribution Networks
www.dlr.de Chart 1 > European Space Solutions 2013 > 6th November 2013 Irradiance Forecasts for Electricity Production Satellite-based Nowcasting for Solar Power Plants and Distribution Networks Marion
More informationShort term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data
Short term forecasting of solar radiation based on satellite data Elke Lorenz, Annette Hammer, Detlev Heinemann Energy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory, Institute of Physics Carl von Ossietzky University,
More informationDirect Normal Radiation from Global Radiation for Indian Stations
RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS Direct Normal Radiation from Global Radiation for Indian Stations Jaideep Rohilla 1, Amit Kumar 2, Amit Tiwari 3 1(Department of Mechanical Engineering, Somany Institute of
More informationMr Riaan Meyer On behalf of Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies University of Stellenbosch
CSP & Solar Resource Assessment CSP Today South Africa 2013 2 nd Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Conference and Expo 4-5 February, Pretoria, Southern Sun Pretoria Hotel Mr Riaan Meyer On behalf of Centre
More informationCARLOS F. M. COIMBRA (PI) HUGO T. C. PEDRO (CO-PI)
HIGH-FIDELITY SOLAR POWER FORECASTING SYSTEMS FOR THE 392 MW IVANPAH SOLAR PLANT (CSP) AND THE 250 MW CALIFORNIA VALLEY SOLAR RANCH (PV) PROJECT CEC EPC-14-008 CARLOS F. M. COIMBRA (PI) HUGO T. C. PEDRO
More informationVerification of sectoral cloud motion based global and direct normal irradiance nowcasting
Verification of sectoral cloud motion based global and direct normal irradiance nowcasting Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Earth Observation Center (EOC) German Remote Sensing Data Center
More informationImportance of Numerical Weather Prediction in Variable Renewable Energy Forecast
Importance of Numerical Weather Prediction in Variable Renewable Energy Forecast Dr. Abhijit Basu (Integrated Research & Action for Development) Arideep Halder (Thinkthrough Consulting Pvt. Ltd.) September
More informationTowards a Bankable Solar Resource
Towards a Bankable Solar Resource Adam Kankiewicz WindLogics Inc. SOLAR 2010 Phoenix, Arizona May 20, 2010 Outline NextEra/WindLogics Solar Development Lessons learned TMY - Caveat Emptor Discussion 2
More informationAlberto Troccoli, Head of Weather and Energy Research Unit, CSIRO, Australia ICCS 2013 Jamaica, 5 December 2013 (remotely, unfortunately)
013 Alberto Troccoli, Head of Weather and Energy Research Unit, CSIRO, Australia ICCS 013 Jamaica, 5 December 013 (remotely, unfortunately) Historical and projected changes in World primary energy demand
More information2014 HIGHLIGHTS. SHC Task 46 is a five-year collaborative project with the IEA SolarPACES Programme and the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme.
2014 HIGHLIGHTS SHC Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting THE ISSUE Knowledge of solar energy resources is critical when designing, building and operating successful solar water heating systems, concentrating
More informationUncertainty of satellite-based solar resource data
Uncertainty of satellite-based solar resource data Marcel Suri and Tomas Cebecauer GeoModel Solar, Slovakia 4th PV Performance Modelling and Monitoring Workshop, Köln, Germany 22-23 October 2015 About
More informationPilot applications for Egypt related end-users
GEO-CRADLE Regional Workshop Thursday, 25 th May, 2017 Pilot applications for Egypt related end-users Hesham El-Askary Chapman University Panagiotis Kosmopoulos National Observatory of Athens Stelios Kazadzis
More informationSatellite-based solar irradiance assessment and forecasting in tropical insular areas
Satellite-based solar irradiance assessment and forecasting in tropical insular areas Sylvain Cros, Maxime De Roubaix, Mathieu Turpin, Patrick Jeanty 16th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference
More informationIntroducing NREL s Gridded National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)
Introducing NREL s Gridded National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) Manajit Sengupta Aron Habte, Anthony Lopez, Yu Xi and Andrew Weekley, NREL Christine Molling CIMMS Andrew Heidinger, NOAA International
More informationAccuracy of Meteonorm ( )
Accuracy of Meteonorm (7.1.6.14035) A detailed look at the model steps and uncertainties 22.10.2015 Jan Remund Contents The atmosphere is a choatic system, not as exactly describable as many technical
More informationIncreased wind power forecast skill due to improved NWP in the last decade
Increased wind power forecast skill due to improved NWP in the last decade Lueder von Bremen ForWind Center for Wind Energy Research of the Universities Oldenburg, Hannover und Bremen EWEA Workshop on
More informationSun to Market Solutions
Sun to Market Solutions S2m has become a leading global advisor for the Solar Power industry 2 Validated solar resource analysis Solcaster pro Modeling Delivery and O&M of weather stations for solar projects
More informationSHORT TERM PREDICTIONS FOR THE POWER OUTPUT OF ENSEMBLES OF WIND TURBINES AND PV-GENERATORS
SHORT TERM PREDICTIONS FOR THE POWER OUTPUT OF ENSEMBLES OF WIND TURBINES AND PV-GENERATORS Hans Georg Beyer*, Detlev Heinemann #, Uli Focken #, Matthias Lange #, Elke Lorenz #, Bertram Lückehe #, Armin
More informationGlobal Solar Dataset for PV Prospecting. Gwendalyn Bender Vaisala, Solar Offering Manager for 3TIER Assessment Services
Global Solar Dataset for PV Prospecting Gwendalyn Bender Vaisala, Solar Offering Manager for 3TIER Assessment Services Vaisala is Your Weather Expert! We have been helping industries manage the impact
More informationPilot applications for Greece and Egypt related end-users
GEO-CRADLE Project Meeting 2 16 th November, 2016 Pilot applications for Greece and Egypt related end-users Panagiotis Kosmopoulos & Hesham El-Askary National Observatory of Athens Chapman University Eratosthenes
More informationCAISO Participating Intermittent Resource Program for Wind Generation
CAISO Participating Intermittent Resource Program for Wind Generation Jim Blatchford CAISO Account Manager Agenda CAISO Market Concepts Wind Availability in California How State Supports Intermittent Resources
More informationA methodology for DNI forecasting using NWP models and aerosol load forecasts
4 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENERGY & METEOROLOGY A methodology for DNI forecasting using NWP models and aerosol load forecasts AEMET National Meteorological Service of Spain Arantxa Revuelta José
More informationTime Series Model of Photovoltaic Generation for Distribution Planning Analysis. Jorge Valenzuela
Time Series Model of Photovoltaic Generation for Distribution Planning Analysis Jorge Valenzuela Overview Introduction: The solar problem and our limitations Modeling What information do we have? Solar
More informationGAMINGRE 8/1/ of 7
FYE 09/30/92 JULY 92 0.00 254,550.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 254,550.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 254,550.00 AUG 10,616,710.31 5,299.95 845,656.83 84,565.68 61,084.86 23,480.82 339,734.73 135,893.89 67,946.95
More informationAgricultural Science Climatology Semester 2, Anne Green / Richard Thompson
Agricultural Science Climatology Semester 2, 2006 Anne Green / Richard Thompson http://www.physics.usyd.edu.au/ag/agschome.htm Course Coordinator: Mike Wheatland Course Goals Evaluate & interpret information,
More informationBankable Solar Resource Data for Energy Projects. Riaan Meyer, GeoSUN Africa, South Africa Marcel Suri, GeoModel Solar, Slovakia
Bankable Solar Resource Data for Energy Projects Riaan Meyer, GeoSUN Africa, South Africa Marcel Suri, GeoModel Solar, Slovakia Solar resource: fuel for solar technologies Photovoltaics (PV) Concentrated
More informationCOMPARING PERFORMANCE OF SOLARGIS AND SUNY SATELLITE MODELS USING MONTHLY AND DAILY AEROSOL DATA
COMPARING PERFORMANCE OF SOLARGIS AND SUNY SATELLITE MODELS USING MONTHLY AND DAILY AEROSOL DATA Tomas Cebecauer 1, Richard Perez 2 and Marcel Suri 1 1 GeoModel Solar, Bratislava (Slovakia) 2 State University
More informationSoleksat. a flexible solar irradiance forecasting tool using satellite images and geographic web-services
Soleksat a flexible solar irradiance forecasting tool using satellite images and geographic web-services Sylvain Cros, Mathieu Turpin, Caroline Lallemand, Quentin Verspieren, Nicolas Schmutz They support
More informationAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather regimes
Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather regimes Nadja Saleck 1, Florian Bertsch 2, Lüder von Bremen 1, Detlev Heinemann 1 1 ForWind, University of
More informationSolar Resource Mapping in South Africa
Solar Resource Mapping in South Africa Tom Fluri Stellenbosch, 27 March 2009 Outline The Sun and Solar Radiation Datasets for various technologies Tools for Solar Resource Mapping Maps for South Africa
More informationINVESTIGATIONS ON SOLAR THERMAL PROCESS HEAT INTEGRATION WITH PARABOLIC TROUGH COLLECTORS
INVESTIGATIO ON SOLAR THERMAL PROCESS HEAT INTEGRATION WITH PARABOLIC TROUGH COLLECTORS Heinz Marty and Elimar Frank HSR University of Applied Science of Rapperswil, Institut fuer Solartechnik SPF, 8640
More informationSHORT TERM PREDICTIONS FOR THE POWER OUTPUT OF ENSEMBLES OF WIND TURBINES AND PV-GENERATORS
SHORT TERM PREDICTIONS FOR THE POWER OUTPUT OF ENSEMBLES OF WIND TURBINES AND PV-GENERATORS Hans Georg Beyer*, Detlev Heinemann #, Uli Focken #, Matthias Lange #, Elke Lorenz #, Bertram Lückehe #, Armin
More informationImproving the accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction
Improving the accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction Bibek Joshi, Alistair Bruce Sproul, Jessie Kai Copper, Merlinde Kay Why solar power forecasting? Electricity grid
More informationShort-Term Forecasting of Surface Solar Irradiance Based on Meteosat-SEVIRI Data Using a Nighttime Cloud lndex
Short-Term Forecasting of Surface Solar Irradiance Based on Meteosat-SEVIRI Data Using a Nighttime Cloud lndex Annette Hammer Energy Meteorology Group Institute of Physics Carl von Ossietzky University
More informationSolarGIS: Online Access to High-Resolution Global Database of Direct Normal Irradiance
SolarGIS: Online Access to High-Resolution Global Database of Direct Normal Irradiance Marcel Suri PhD Tomas Cebecauer, PhD GeoModel Solar Bratislava, Slovakia Conference Conference SolarPACES 2012, 13
More informationPROJECT REPORT (ASL 720) CLOUD CLASSIFICATION
PROJECT REPORT (ASL 720) CLOUD CLASSIFICATION SUBMITTED BY- PRIYANKA GUPTA 2011CH70177 RINI KAPOOR 2011CH70179 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTION- Priyanka Gupta- analysed data of region considered in India (West:80,
More informationThe Energy Markets. Use and interpretation of medium to extended range products. ECMWF, Reading, 14 th of November 2005
The Energy Markets Use and interpretation of medium to extended range products ECMWF, Reading, 14 th of November 2005 drs. Stefan Meulemans, MSc Sempra Energy Europe Ltd. London smeulemans@sempracommodities.com
More informationEnergy Forecasting Customers: Analysing end users requirements Dec 3rd, 2013 Carlos Alberto Castaño, PhD Head of R&D
IT Solutions for Renewables Energy Forecasting Customers: Analysing end users requirements Dec 3rd, 2013 Carlos Alberto Castaño, PhD Head of R&D carlos.castano@gnarum.com I. Who we are II. Customers Profiles
More information2018 Annual Review of Availability Assessment Hours
2018 Annual Review of Availability Assessment Hours Amber Motley Manager, Short Term Forecasting Clyde Loutan Principal, Renewable Energy Integration Karl Meeusen Senior Advisor, Infrastructure & Regulatory
More informationAccuracy evaluation of solar irradiance forecasting technique using a meteorological model
Accuracy evaluation of solar irradiance forecasting technique using a meteorological model October 1st, 2013 Yasushi MIWA Electric power Research & Development CENTER Electric Power Companies in Japan
More informationNASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting
NASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting Erica Zell, Battelle zelle@battelle.org, Arlington, VA ESIP 2010 Summer Meeting, Knoxville, TN, July 20-23 Project Overview Funded by the NASA Applied
More informationAn Adaptive Multi-Modeling Approach to Solar Nowcasting
An Adaptive Multi-Modeling Approach to Solar Nowcasting Antonio Sanfilippo, Luis Martin-Pomares, Nassma Mohandes, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour ICEM 2015 Overview Introduction Background, problem
More informationD Future research objectives and priorities in the field of solar resources
Management and Exploitation of Solar Resource Knowledge CA Contract No. 038665 D 1.3.1 Future research objectives and priorities in the field of solar resources Edited by Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt,
More informationAN INTERNATIONAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE DATA INGEST SYSTEM FOR FORECASTING SOLAR POWER AND AGRICULTURAL CROP YIELDS
AN INTERNATIONAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE DATA INGEST SYSTEM FOR FORECASTING SOLAR POWER AND AGRICULTURAL CROP YIELDS James Hall JHTech PO Box 877 Divide, CO 80814 Email: jameshall@jhtech.com Jeffrey Hall JHTech
More informationPost-processing of solar irradiance forecasts from WRF Model at Reunion Island
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 57 (2014 ) 1364 1373 2013 ISES Solar World Congress Post-processing of solar irradiance forecasts from WRF Model at Reunion Island
More informationAN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK BASED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING DIRECT NORMAL, DIFFUSE HORIZONTAL AND GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIANCES USING SATELLITE IMAGES
AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK BASED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING DIRECT NORMAL, DIFFUSE HORIZONTAL AND GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIANCES USING SATELLITE IMAGES Yehia Eissa Prashanth R. Marpu Hosni Ghedira Taha B.M.J.
More informationEnergy Yield Assessment of the Photovoltaic Power Plant
Energy Yield Assessment of the Photovoltaic Power Plant ******** Municipality of ********, *********(Country) Nominal power ******** kwp DC Reference No. 200-01/2013 Date: 18 August 2016 Customer Supplier
More informationGlobal climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues
www.bsc.es Ispra, 23 May 2017 Global climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes BSC Earth Sciences Department and ICREA Many of the ideas in this presentation
More informationIMPROVED MODEL FOR FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE DURING SUNNY AND CLOUDY DAYS. Bogdan-Gabriel Burduhos, Mircea Neagoe *
DOI: 10.2478/awutp-2018-0002 ANNALS OF WEST UNIVERSITY OF TIMISOARA PHYSICS Vol. LX, 2018 IMPROVED MODEL FOR FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE DURING SUNNY AND CLOUDY DAYS Bogdan-Gabriel Burduhos, Mircea
More informationpeak half-hourly New South Wales
Forecasting long-term peak half-hourly electricity demand for New South Wales Dr Shu Fan B.S., M.S., Ph.D. Professor Rob J Hyndman B.Sc. (Hons), Ph.D., A.Stat. Business & Economic Forecasting Unit Report
More informationValidation of Direct Normal Irradiance from Meteosat Second Generation. DNICast
Validation of Direct Normal Irradiance from Meteosat Second Generation DNICast A. Meyer 1), L. Vuilleumier 1), R. Stöckli 1), S. Wilbert 2), and L. F. Zarzalejo 3) 1) Federal Office of Meteorology and
More informationDrought in Southeast Colorado
Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1 Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism
More informationEstimation of Hourly Solar Radiation on Horizontal and Inclined Surfaces in Western Himalayas
Smart Grid and Renewable Energy, 2011, 2, 45-55 doi:10.4236/sgre.2011.21006 Published Online February 2011 (http://www.scirp.org/journal/sgre) 45 Estimation of Hourly Solar Radiation on Horizontal and
More informationCOMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL
COMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL Ricardo Marquez Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics School of Engineering University of California Merced Carlos F. M. Coimbra
More informationSURFACE ORIENTATIONS AND ENERGY POLICY FOR SOLAR MODULE APPLICATIONS IN DHAKA, BANGLADESH
International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research, Volume 5, Issue, February-014 83 ISSN 9-5518 SURFACE ORIENTATIONS AND ENERGY POLICY FOR SOLAR MODULE APPLICATIONS IN DHAKA, BANGLADESH 1 Debazit
More informationSYSTEM BRIEF DAILY SUMMARY
SYSTEM BRIEF DAILY SUMMARY * ANNUAL MaxTemp NEL (MWH) Hr Ending Hr Ending LOAD (PEAK HOURS 7:00 AM TO 10:00 PM MON-SAT) ENERGY (MWH) INCREMENTAL COST DAY DATE Civic TOTAL MAXIMUM @Max MINIMUM @Min FACTOR
More informationA SOLAR AND WIND INTEGRATED FORECAST TOOL (SWIFT) DESIGNED FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY VARIABILITY ON HAWAIIAN GRID SYSTEMS
ALBANY BARCELONA BANGALORE ICEM 2015 June 26, 2015 Boulder, CO A SOLAR AND WIND INTEGRATED FORECAST TOOL (SWIFT) DESIGNED FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY VARIABILITY ON HAWAIIAN GRID SYSTEMS JOHN
More informationCLOUD VELOCITY ESTIMATION FROM AN ARRAY OF SOLAR RADIATION MEASUREMENTS
CLOUD VELOCITY ESTIMATION FROM AN ARRAY OF SOLAR RADIATION MEASUREMENTS Juan L. Bosch Yuehai Zheng Jan Kleissl Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Center for Renewable Resources and Integration
More informationJackson County 2013 Weather Data
Jackson County 2013 Weather Data 61 Years of Weather Data Recorded at the UF/IFAS Marianna North Florida Research and Education Center Doug Mayo Jackson County Extension Director 1952-2008 Rainfall Data
More informationForecast solutions for the energy sector
Forecast solutions for the energy sector A/S Lyngsø Allé 3 DK-2970 Hørsholm Henrik Aalborg Nielsen, A/S 1 Consumption and production forecasts Heat load forecasts for district heating systems usually for
More informationThe Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Radiation Service in a nutshell
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Radiation Service in a nutshell Issued by: M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, DLR Date: 17/02/2016 REF.: Service Contract No 2015/CAMS_72/SC1 This document has
More informationPROJECTING THE SOLAR RADIATION IN NASARAWA-NIGERIA USING REITVELD EQUATION
PROJECTING THE SOLAR RADIATION IN NASARAWA-NIGERIA USING REITVELD EQUATION * Benedicta C. Njoku 1, Musibau A. Adesina 2, Eshipemi W. Lukman 3 and Bankole Omojola 4 1,2,3 Mechanical Engineering Department,
More informationpeak half-hourly Tasmania
Forecasting long-term peak half-hourly electricity demand for Tasmania Dr Shu Fan B.S., M.S., Ph.D. Professor Rob J Hyndman B.Sc. (Hons), Ph.D., A.Stat. Business & Economic Forecasting Unit Report for
More informationCurrent best practice of uncertainty forecast for wind energy
Current best practice of uncertainty forecast for wind energy Dr. Matthias Lange Stochastic Methods for Management and Valuation of Energy Storage in the Future German Energy System 17 March 2016 Overview
More informationNew applications using real-time observations and ECMWF model data
New applications using real-time observations and ECMWF model data 12 th Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems Wim van den Berg [senior meteorological researcher, project coordinator] Overview
More informationCharacterization of the solar irradiation field for the Trentino region in the Alps
Characterization of the solar irradiation field for the Trentino region in the Alps L. Laiti*, L. Giovannini and D. Zardi Atmospheric Physics Group University of Trento - Italy outline of the talk Introduction
More informationWorkshop on Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations. Phoenix, Arizona 19 February 2009
Workshop on Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations Phoenix, Arizona 19 February 2009 Integrating Forecasting into the EMS and Control Center by the Portuguese TSO Rui Pestana
More informationPurdue University Meteorological Tool (PUMET)
Purdue University Meteorological Tool (PUMET) Date: 10/25/2017 Purdue University Meteorological Tool (PUMET) allows users to download and visualize a variety of global meteorological databases, such as
More informationModel Output Statistics (MOS)
Model Output Statistics (MOS) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models calculate the future state of the atmosphere at certain points of time (forecasts). The calculation of these forecasts is based on
More informationHORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL ILLUMINANCE/IRRADIANCE FROM THE IDMP STATION IN GENEVA
Third SATELLIGHT meeting, Les Marecottes January 16/17 1997 HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL ILLUMINANCE/IRRADIANCE FROM THE IDMP STATION IN GENEVA by Arvid Skartveit and Jan Asle Olseth SATELLIGHT Programme JOR3-CT9541
More informationCost of Inflow Forecast Uncertainty for Day Ahead Hydropower Production Scheduling
Cost of Inflow Forecast Uncertainty for Day Ahead Hydropower Production Scheduling HEPEX 10 th University Workshop June 25 th, 2014 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Thomas D. Veselka and Les Poch Argonne
More informationTHE SOLAR RESOURCE: PART I MINES ParisTech Center Observation, Impacts, Energy (Tel.: +33 (0) )
MASTER REST Solar Resource Part I THE SOLAR RESOURCE: PART I MINES ParisTech Center Observation, Impacts, Energy philippe.blanc@mines-paristech.fr (Tel.: +33 (0)4 93 95 74 04) MASTER REST Solar Resource
More informationMulti-Model Ensemble for day ahead PV power forecasting improvement
Multi-Model Ensemble for day ahead PV power forecasting improvement Cristina Cornaro a,b, Marco Pierro a,e, Francesco Bucci a, Matteo De Felice d, Enrico Maggioni c, David Moser e,alessandro Perotto c,
More informationSTATUS AND DEVELOPMENT OF OPERATIONAL METEOSAT WIND PRODUCTS. Mikael Rattenborg. EUMETSAT, Am Kavalleriesand 31, D Darmstadt, Germany ABSTRACT
STATUS AND DEVELOPMENT OF OPERATIONAL METEOSAT WIND PRODUCTS Mikael Rattenborg EUMETSAT, Am Kavalleriesand 31, D-64295 Darmstadt, Germany ABSTRACT The Operational Meteosat Meteorological Products are produced
More informationSYSTEM BRIEF DAILY SUMMARY
SYSTEM BRIEF DAILY SUMMARY * ANNUAL MaxTemp NEL (MWH) Hr Ending Hr Ending LOAD (PEAK HOURS 7:00 AM TO 10:00 PM MON-SAT) ENERGY (MWH) INCREMENTAL COST DAY DATE Civic TOTAL MAXIMUM @Max MINIMUM @Min FACTOR
More informationSATELLITE DERIVED AND GROUND TRUTH HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL ILLUMINANCE/IRRADIANCE FROM THE IDMP STATIONS AT GENEVA AND GÄVLE
Fifth SATELLIGHT meeting, Sophia Antipolis November 27-28 1997 SATELLITE DERIVED AND GROUND TRUTH HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL ILLUMINANCE/IRRADIANCE FROM THE IDMP STATIONS AT GENEVA AND GÄVLE by Arvid Skartveit
More informationMonitoring and remote failure detection of grid-connected PV systems based on satellite observations
Solar Energy 81 (2007) 548 564 www.elsevier.com/locate/solener Monitoring and remote failure detection of grid-connected PV systems based on satellite observations A. Drews a, *,1, A.C. de Keizer b, H.G.
More informationDeveloping a Guide for Non-experts to Determine the Most Appropriate Use of Solar Energy Resource Information
Developing a Guide for Non-experts to Determine the Most Appropriate Use of Solar Energy Resource Information Carsten Hoyer-Klick 1*, Jennifer McIntosh 2, Magda Moner-Girona 3, David Renné 4, Richard Perez
More informationCOMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL
COMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL Ricardo Marquez Mechanical Engineering Applied Mechanics School of Engineering University of California Merced Merced, California 95343
More informationENHANCING THE GEOGRAPHICAL AND TIME RESOLUTION OF NASA SSE TIME SERIES USING MICROSTRUCTURE PATTERNING
ENHANCING THE GEOGRAPHICAL AND TIME RESOLUTION OF NASA TIME SERIES USING MICROSTRUCTURE PATTERNING Richard Perez and Marek Kmiecik, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center 251 Fuller Rd Albany, NY, 1223 Perez@asrc.cestm.albany,edu
More informationCreation of a 30 years-long high resolution homogenized solar radiation data set over the
Creation of a 30 years-long high resolution homogenized solar radiation data set over the Benelux C. Bertrand in collaboration with M. Urbainand M. Journée Operational Directorate: Weather forecasting
More informationAssessment of Heliosat-4 surface solar irradiance derived on the basis of SEVIRI-APOLLO cloud products
Assessment of Heliosat-4 surface solar irradiance derived on the basis of SEVIRI-APOLLO cloud products Zhipeng Qu, Armel Oumbe, Philippe Blanc, Mireille Lefèvre, Lucien Wald MINES ParisTech, Centre for
More informationSolar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models
Senior Project Proposal 2102490 Year 2016 Solar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models Vichaya Layanun ID 5630550721 Advisor: Assist. Prof. Jitkomut Songsiri
More informationDemand Forecasting Reporting Period: 19 st Jun th Sep 2017
N A T I O N A L G R I D P A G E 1 O F 21 C O M M E R C I A L, E L E C T R I C I T Y C O M M E R C I A L O P E R A T I O N S Demand Forecasting Reporting Period: 19 st Jun 2017 10 th Sep 2017 EXECUTIVE
More informationWHEN IS IT EVER GOING TO RAIN? Table of Average Annual Rainfall and Rainfall For Selected Arizona Cities
WHEN IS IT EVER GOING TO RAIN? Table of Average Annual Rainfall and 2001-2002 Rainfall For Selected Arizona Cities Phoenix Tucson Flagstaff Avg. 2001-2002 Avg. 2001-2002 Avg. 2001-2002 October 0.7 0.0
More informationOPTIMIZATION OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION OF TILT ANGLE FOR SOLAR PANELS, LOCATION: OUARGLA, ALGERIA
OPTIMIZATION OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION OF TILT ANGLE FOR SOLAR PANELS, LOCATION: OUARGLA, ALGERIA Mohamed Lakhdar LOUAZENE Dris KORICHI Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Ouargla, Algeria.
More informationThe document was not produced by the CAISO and therefore does not necessarily reflect its views or opinion.
Version No. 1.0 Version Date 2/25/2008 Externally-authored document cover sheet Effective Date: 4/03/2008 The purpose of this cover sheet is to provide attribution and background information for documents
More information2016 Meteorology Summary
2016 Meteorology Summary New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection AIR POLLUTION AND METEOROLOGY Meteorology plays an important role in the distribution of pollution throughout the troposphere,
More informationSOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION USING MEASURED AND PREDICTED AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH
SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATION AND PREDICTION USING MEASURED AND PREDICTED AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH Carlos M. Fernández-Peruchena, Martín Gastón, Maria V Guisado, Ana Bernardos, Íñigo Pagola, Lourdes Ramírez
More informationOPTIMISING THE TEMPORAL AVERAGING PERIOD OF POINT SURFACE SOLAR RESOURCE MEASUREMENTS FOR CORRELATION WITH AREAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES
OPTIMISING THE TEMPORAL AVERAGING PERIOD OF POINT SURFACE SOLAR RESOURCE MEASUREMENTS FOR CORRELATION WITH AREAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES Ian Grant Anja Schubert Australian Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289
More informationEstimation of Diffuse Solar Radiation for Yola, Adamawa State, North- Eastern, Nigeria
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-issn: - Volume: Issue: Nov- www.irjet.net p-issn: - Estimation of Diffuse Solar Radiation for Yola, Adamawa State, North- Eastern,
More informationTracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University
Tracking the Climate Of Northern Colorado Nolan Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Northern Colorado Business Innovations November 20, 2013 Loveland, Colorado
More informationAn Operational Solar Forecast Model For PV Fleet Simulation. Richard Perez & Skip Dise Jim Schlemmer Sergey Kivalov Karl Hemker, Jr.
An Operational Solar Forecast Model For PV Fleet Simulation Richard Perez & Skip Dise Jim Schlemmer Sergey Kivalov Karl Hemker, Jr. Adam Kankiewicz Historical and forecast platform Blended forecast approach
More informationSupplementary appendix
Supplementary appendix This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. We post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Lowe R, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Petrova D, et al.
More informationMÉRA: Met Éireann ReAnalysis Global Shortwave Radiation
MÉRA: Met Éireann ReAnalysis Global Shortwave Radiation Emily Gleeson, Met Éireann Kristian Pagh Nielsen, DMI Eoin Whelan, Met Éireann Special thanks to the ALADIN- HIRLAM consortium Some facts about MÉRA
More informationMemo. I. Executive Summary. II. ALERT Data Source. III. General System-Wide Reporting Summary. Date: January 26, 2009 To: From: Subject:
Memo Date: January 26, 2009 To: From: Subject: Kevin Stewart Markus Ritsch 2010 Annual Legacy ALERT Data Analysis Summary Report I. Executive Summary The Urban Drainage and Flood Control District (District)
More informationComparison of meteorological data from different sources for Bishkek city, Kyrgyzstan
Comparison of meteorological data from different sources for Bishkek city, Kyrgyzstan Ruslan Botpaev¹*, Alaibek Obozov¹, Janybek Orozaliev², Christian Budig², Klaus Vajen², 1 Kyrgyz State Technical University,
More informationHeight correction of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) using lidar observations
Height correction of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) using lidar observations Kathrin Folger and Martin Weissmann Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Data Assimilation Branch Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität
More information