The UK Flood Forecasting Centre

Transcription

1 Storm Surge Networking Forum, Venice: Tuesday 19 th November 2013 The UK Flood Forecasting Centre Dave Cox - Senior Hydrometeorologist FFC Exeter, England.

2 In My talk today I will cover: Ü Overview of the Flood Forecas2ng Centre (FFC) Ü Who the FFC work with Ü Our products / services Ü Recent coastal event: 10 th October 2013 Ü Coastal work area: FFC involvement Ü Ques2ons

3 Pitt Review - Creation of the FFC UK government s Pitt Review key recommendation (6) The Environment Agency and the Met Office should work together, through a joint centre, to improve their technical capability to forecast, model and warn against all sources of flooding. The Review understands that this is a significant change to current arrangements and we do not take the option lightly

4 What is the FFC? Ü Successful partnership between the Met Office and the Environment Agency, funded by Defra Ü Opera2onal since April 2009, delivering 24/7 services to government and emergency responders Ü Aim to provide early warning of poten2al flood impacts Ü Based in the OperaDons Centre, Exeter Ü Forecasts for all 4 sources of flooding Ü Combining experdse in meteorology and hydrology

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6 The FFC work closely with.. Met Office Ü Guidance Unit Ü National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS) & Civil Contingencies Advisors Ü BBC / ITV weather forecasters Environment Agency (EA) & Natural Resources Wales (NRW) Ü EA and NRW Regional Forecasting Teams Ü EA and NRW Flood Incident Management Ü National Flood Risk Systems Ü Incident & Contingency Planning The FFC also work with SEPA and DARDNI for coastal issues

7 Our Customers Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales Ü Flood Risk and Coastal Management Ü Incident & Contingency Planning National Government Ü Welsh Government Ü Defra Ü Cabinet Office Ü Department for Communities & Local Government Emergency Responders Ü Blue Light Services Ü Local Authorities Ü Utility Companies

8 Our Services For the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales Ü Hydromet Services / Heavy Rainfall Alerts / FMD Ü Consultancy For Emergency Responders Ü Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) Ü Advice and guidance Ü Training material / exercises Ü NFAS (National Flood Advisory Service) For the Public Ü Three Day Flood Risk Forecast For UKCMF Ü Outlooks, alerts and consultancy Ü UK coast including Scotland & Northern Ireland

9 The Met Office models we look at

10 2013 Primary Modelling Suite 2.2km ensemble T+ 36hr 6-hourly update 1.5km model T+ 36hr 3-hourly update 33km ensemble Up to 3 days 6-hourly update 4.4km model T+ 120hr (5 days) 6-hourly update 60km coupled model Up to 6 months Daily lagged ensemble 25km model Up to 144hr (7 days) 6-hourly update

11 FGS: FFC primary product 4 Sources of Flooding Fluvial (River) - Grid 2 Grid Pluvial (Surface Water) - Surface Water Tool Groundwater Coastal / Tidal UKCMF

12 UKCMF is a complex and vital service for providing timely and accurate forecasts of coastal flood risk conditions for flood warnings. The Environment Agency is responsible for managing the service but all the organisations involved have a vital part to play. UKCMF Service Strategy for 2009 to 2019

13 National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies coastal flooding 2 nd highest impact

14 Recent coastal event: 10 th October 2013 Ü Assessment of forecast pressure charts - general ingredients for an East Coast event on Thursday 10th - Springs peaked Monday 7 th so could have been worse minor impacts Ü - From Surge 0600 ensemble output Tuesday for: 8th: Lowestoft from Cromer 1800 (just Saturday over 5th Alert Level) and Lowestoft (well over Alert Level)

15 Recent coastal event: 10th October 2013 Ü NWP output UKV and EURO4 winds and WWIII

16 Recent coastal event: 10 th October 2013 Ü FGS (Read by PM daily in this event potential for COBR if signal for AMBER) - Area of Concern Maps became more focused

17 Recent coastal event: 10th October 2013 Ü Hydromet Guidance from Sunday 6th October

18 Recent coastal event: 10 th October 2013 Ü FFC participated in NFAS and NOIMT telecons - High level interest in East coast flood events - Also provided briefing documents Ü Environment Agency Flood Warnings/Alerts - Minor Impacts was the appropriate warning level

19 Coastal Work Area: FFC Involvement Ü In House Work - Visual Weather (production and visualisation) - Day to day service deliver and Requests For Change (RFC s) Ü Links with EA & NRW - Hydromet Service Review - Task & Finish Groups (eg 5 Day wind and Wave) - EA Coastal Modelling and Forecasting Group - East Coast Decision Support Tool (ECDST) Ü Links with NOC - Case Study investigation work (better understanding of CS3X model) - CS3X (scoping for eventual replacement potentially by NEMO)

20 Coastal Work Area: FFC Involvement Ü Links with Met Office Research Wave Ensemble - 22 member time lagged ensemble - My Wave (EU) funded - Plan to be operational in Jan 2014 Ü In Dme a combined wind/wave/surge ensemble out to 5+ days would be good!

21 Storm Surge Networking Forum, Venice: Tuesday 19 th November 2013 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING Dave Cox - Senior Hydrometeorologist FFC Exeter, England.

22 QUESTIONS? Contact the FFC Ü FFC Or me personally Ü Phone FFC Ü FFC Web site