Metropolitan Transportation Plan Major Update. Regional Issues Report Final Report

Transcription

1 Metropolitan Transportation Plan Major Update Final Report

2 General Characteristics... 1 Area and Socioeconomic Information... 2 al Areas of Significance... 6 Transit Safety Congestion Vehicle Miles Traveled Commuting Patterns Access to Education Access to Medical Facilities Freight... 46

3 General Characteristics The Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA) for the Kentuckiana al Planning & Development Agency () currently consists of Bullitt, Jefferson, and Oldham Counties in Kentucky and Clark and Floyd Counties in Indiana. Additionally, small portions of Shelby County, Kentucky and Harrison County, Indiana and are part of the MPA. Land uses vary greatly around the region; ranging from dense urban development located primarily in downtown Louisville and in the centers of several smaller cities around the region, to very sparse rural development around the fringes of the region, with suburban residential and commercial developments located in between. Map of Metropolitan Planning Area 1

4 Area and Socioeconomic Information Area The area of the is approximately 1,420 square miles or 909,000 acres. The areas of the individual counties are shown below: County Total Area (Square Miles) Total Area (Acres) Bullitt ,000 Jefferson ,000 Oldham ,000 Clark ,000 Floyd ,000 Total 1, ,000 Population The population of the increased by about 90,000 people (10%) to 1,038,636 between 2000 and This equates to a growth rate of about 0.9% per year. This rate exceeds the longer term growth rate in population in the region of about 0.5% per year since About half of the population growth within the region since 2000 has occurred in Jefferson County, with the other half spread among the other four counties. Viewed on a percentage basis, Oldham and Bullitt Counties grew by 31% and 21%, respectively between 2000 and This is consistent with the longer term growth rates, which show that the population of these two counties has approximately doubled over the 30-year period between 1980 and This growth significantly exceeds the growth rate in the two southern Indiana counties of about 23%, and the growth rate in Jefferson County of about 8% over the same time period. The most recent set of population forecasts used for this analysis were developed prior to the release of the 2010 Census data. These forecasts have a horizon year of 2030 and assume a total population of 1,151,805 in the. This would be an increase of about 113,000 people in the region over the 20 years between 2010 and This equates to an increase of approximately 11%, or a growth rate of about 0.5% per year. This is less than the growth rate over the most recent decade, but it is consistent with longer-term historical growth rate. Based on these forecasts, the forecasted population growth is expected to primarily occur outside of Jefferson County. Over 72,000 (or 64%) of the additional forecasted population are expected to reside in Bullitt and Oldham Counties, while over 36,000 (or 32%) are expected to reside in Clark and Floyd Counties. Growth of this magnitude in these suburban counties will significantly increase the demand on the transportation system throughout the entire region. It is important to note that a new set of forecasts will be developed prior to the adoption of the Connecting Kentuckiana Metropolitan Transportation Plan. The new forecasts will include a new horizon year of 2040 and will include recent trends at a local level. 2

5 County 2000 Non-Group Quarters Population 2010 Non-Group Quarters Population 2030 Non-Group Quarters Population Bullitt 61,005 73, ,224 Jefferson 680, , ,891 Oldham 42,298 55,748 88,166 Clark 94, , ,321 Floyd 69,784 73,249 85,203 Total 948,790 1,038,636 1,151,805 Sources: 2000 Census/2010 Census/Horizon 2030 Forecasts Map Showing Forecasted Population Change in the from 2010 to 2030 at the TAD Level 3

6 Households The number of households, or occupied housing units, in the increased by about 40,000 (or 10%) to 430,006 between 2000 and This equates to a growth rate of about 1.0% per year during the decade. This growth is slightly greater than the growth in non-group quarters population, and therefore reflecting a slight decrease in average household size in the from 2.44 persons per household in 2000 to 2.42 persons per household in The growth in number of households by county between 2000 and 2010 is consistent with the population growth, in that the greatest increase in number was in Jefferson County, while the greatest increases in terms of percentage were experienced in Oldham and Bullitt Counties. The forecasted growth in the number of households assumes 70,000 additional households in the by 2030, as compared to This equates to a growth rate of about 0.8% per year, which is a higher rate of growth than the forecasted growth in population of about 0.5% per year over the same period. By pairing these 2030 forecasts, the average household size is expected to continue to decrease to 2.29 persons per household by It is important to note that a new set of forecasts will be developed prior to the adoption of the Connecting Kentuckiana Metropolitan Transportation Plan. The new forecasts will include a new horizon year of 2040 and will include recent trends at a local level. County 2000 Households 2010 Households 2030 Households Bullitt 22,171 27,673 43,492 Jefferson 287, , ,737 Oldham 14,856 19,431 31,781 Clark 38,295 44,248 57,016 Floyd 27,224 29,479 34,316 Total 389, , ,342 Sources: 2000 Census/2010 Census/Horizon 2030 Forecasts Employment To estimate the number of jobs in the, employment is measured by place of work employment. Place of work employment represents the number of jobs in a place, not the number of workers that live in a place. Place of work employment totals are not available for all counties in 2010, so a 5-year estimate from the American Community Survey (ACS) that includes 2006 through 2010 is used as a comparison in the table below. The ACS Data show a 4.5% increase in jobs between 2000 and Most of the job growth over the past decade has occurred in Bullitt and Jefferson Counties. There were over 17,000 additional jobs in Jefferson County in the 5-year period between 2006 and 2010 than there were in 2000, an increase of about 4%. In Bullitt County, there were about 4,400 jobs added over this time period, which equates to a 32% increase. Floyd and Oldham Counties each experienced a smaller increase in jobs over the same time period, while Clark County lost over 1,000 jobs. The forecasted growth in employment assumes an additional 310,000 jobs in the region by 2030, a 55% increase. Significant growth in the number of jobs is forecasted in all five counties. It is important to consider that these forecasts were developed prior to or during the recent period of high unemployment. Therefore, expectations in job growth have likely changed since then and revised forecasts will be developed for the Connecting Kentuckiana Metropolitan Transportation Plan that will reflect more recent assumptions and conditions. 4

7 County 2000 Place of Work Employment ACS Estimated Place of Work Employment 2030 Place of Work Employment Bullitt 13,767 18,114 37,300 Jefferson 427, , ,984 Oldham 14,553 15,732 29,657 Clark 50,539 49,337 88,498 Floyd 30,536 32,594 45,279 Total 536, , ,718 Sources: Census 2000 (Adjusted)/ Year American Community Survey Estimates/Horizon 2030 Forecasts Map Showing Forecasted Employment Increases in the from 2000 to 2030 at the TAD Level 5

8 Similar to national and statewide trends, the regional unemployment rate has risen to a higher level than it was in Between 2000 and 2010, the unemployment rate for the local Metropolitan Statistical Area (which includes several counties other than those in the Metropolitan Planning Area) rose from about 3% to about 10%. It has since decreased to under 6%. The volatility in the unemployment rate adds additional uncertainty to the future employment estimates. Unemployment Rates by Area Louisville- Jefferson County, KY-IN Metropolitan Statistical Area Kentucky Indiana U.S.A. April % 3.9% 3.4% 3.7% April % 10.6% 10.0% 9.5% September % 6.7% 5.7% 5.7% Source: U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Despite the uncertainty of all of the socioeconomic forecasts and the impending updates to the data, it is important to consider that the regional population, households, and employment are each expected to increase by While other factors such as land-use patterns, the cost of fuel, and macroeconomic factors will impact the amount of travel in this region, the cumulative impact of these increases will put additional demand on all transportation modes. al Areas of Significance There are several areas in the described on the following pages that warrant special consideration in this report. These are areas that are expected to experience significant changes in traffic growth, population growth, employment growth, or other characteristics in the future. The expected growth from these developments or projects is at least partially considered in the socioeconomic forecasts described in the previous section, but will be further refined as new forecasts are generated as part of the development of the updated MTP. 6

9 Ohio River Bridges Project The Louisville-Southern Indiana Ohio River Bridges Project is a multi-billion dollar project that is one of the largest infrastructure projects underway in the nation. All portions of the project are expected to be complete by late The project includes a new six-lane bridge on I-65 in downtown that will pair with the existing Kennedy Bridge to provide a total of 12 lanes on I-65 across the river between Louisville and Jeffersonville. Also included as part of the project are significant changes to the ramps that connect to these bridges on both sides of the Ohio River. In the East End, a four-lane interstate bridge is being built that will cross the Ohio River between Prospect, KY and Utica, IN. In addition to the new bridge, several miles of additional interstate will be built on both sides of the river to connect the existing portions of I-265 on each side of the river. Although it is not necessarily an Area of Significance, the project will have a direct impact well beyond its expected transportation impacts of congestion mitigation and additional access it is designed to provide. The project will also impact development and land-use patterns in a large portion of the. For example, a major new development at the River Ridge Commerce Center (see below) will be located just north of the Indiana approach. Map Showing the Location of the Louisville-Southern Indiana Ohio River Bridges Project 7

10 Parklands of Floyds Fork The Parklands of Floyds Fork is a major new park project in eastern Jefferson County located along Floyds Fork Creek, which is between I-265 and Shelby County. It is technically a series of five new parks that will be located between US 31E/150 (Bardstown Road) in the south and US 60 (Shelbyville Road) in the north. All portions of the project are scheduled to open by The presence of the new park system has the potential to impact both the type and intensity of the land use in the areas surrounding the parks. The transportation impacts of the project are numerous. The parks will be a regional attraction that will attract visitors for typical daily park activities as well as special events. The park roads will make new roadway connections that do not currently exist. Access to the park is limited to locations where park roads intersect existing roadways. The new park entrances include several access points located along rural roadways that were not designed for large traffic volumes, nor do they have bicycle or pedestrian accommodations at this time. Map Showing the Location of The Parklands of Floyds Fork 8

11 Louisville Loop The Louisville Loop project is a major bicycle and pedestrian project that will include a series of trails around the outer portions of Jefferson County. The project is expected to be approximately 100 miles long. It will connect many parks and other destinations all around the city including The Parklands of Floyds Fork (see above), Waterfront Park, and Jefferson Memorial Forest, among others. Sections of the project are in various stages. Some sections are open to traffic already, others will be open soon, while the alignment for other portions has not been finalized. This project has the potential to impact land use and development for a very large area. Map Showing the Location of the Louisville Loop Project 9

12 River Ridge Commerce Center The River Ridge Commerce Center is a major new employment center located at the site of the former Indiana Army Ammunition Plant in southeastern Clark County. It is located within a few miles from the East End (I-265) Bridge near the location of the planned I-265/Old Salem Road Interchange. Several major employers have opened new manufacturing and warehouse facilities at this location and many more are expected in the next several years. This has created an influx of thousands of new employees to the area with many thousands more anticipated after the East End Bridge opens in With the growth in employment at River Ridge, additional residential and commercial growth is expected in the nearby communities, including Jeffersonville, Charlestown, and Utica. Map Showing the Location of the River Ridge Commerce Center 10

13 Fort Knox Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Under the United States Army s 2005 Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC), Fort Knox, partially located in Bullitt County, was transformed from a base that housed armor training units to a major human resource center for the United States Army. The net result of the realignment is approximately 5,000 additional jobs located at Fort Knox. The additional civilian personnel working at the post have contributed to more than half of the soldiers and families now living off post. The influx of new residents in and near the southern edge of the will increase the need for transportation infrastructure in this area. The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet has made significant investments in new roadways in Hardin County in the past few years. As the impact expands into surrounding counties, additional investment may be necessary in Bullitt County as well. Cedar Grove Industrial Park Bullitt County has experienced significant job growth in the past decade, especially in the manufacturing and warehousing sectors. Much of this growth has occurred at the Cedar Grove Industrial Park. This industrial park is located in Shepherdsville near the interchange of I-65 and KY 480 (Cedar Grove Road). Major employers include Best Buy, Zappos, Gordon Food Service, among others. Additional development in the industrial park is expected to bring thousands of additional jobs to this area in the near future, as the development expands to the south and east. The interchange already experiences significant congestion, including significant truck congestion, during peak hours and throughout the holiday season when employment is at its seasonal peak. 11

14 Transit al Statistics Trips made today in the via public transportation make up a small percentage of the overall trips. The most recent household travel survey in the (from 2000) estimates that 0.7% of all trips in the are made by public transportation. Since the time of the household travel survey, TARC ridership has not increased while the regional population has increased by over 10% (see the graph on the next page), so it is likely that the public transportation modes share has decreased over time. The American Community Survey (ACS) provides more recent data in regard to the distribution of trips by means of transportation, or mode. However, the ACS Data reflects only trips to/from the workplace. These trips tend to be longer trips (home-based work trips averaged about 24 minutes in the 2000 Household Travel Survey versus an average of about 19 minutes for all trip purposes), and therefore are more likely to be made by public transportation than by bicycling or walking. The ACS Data for the three-year period from 2011 through 2013 show that approximately 2.1% of trips to/from the workplace were made by public transportation. This is about twice the percentage of work trips made by public transportation in Kentucky and Indiana, yet it is half the percentage for the entire country. The ACS Journey to Work Data are shown in the table below: County Workers (16+) by Place of Residence Drove Alone Carpool Public Transportation Walked Other Worked at Home Bullitt 36, % 9.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 2.7% Jefferson 346, % 8.2% 2.8% 2.1% 1.5% 3.1% Oldham 27, % 6.9% 0.6% 1.6% 0.8% 5.7% Clark 52, % 8.7% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.9% Floyd 35, % 9.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 2.2% Total 499, % 8.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.3% 3.0% Kentucky 1,839, % 9.6% 1.1% 2.2% 1.2% 3.0% Indiana 2,940, % 9.1% 1.1% 2.1% 1.5% 3.3% U.S. 140,770, % 9.7% 5.1% 2.8% 1.8% 4.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Year American Community Survey, DP03 Tables Public transportation makes up a very small share of trips in both of the available datasets. Further, there is virtually no public transportation usage in the region other than in Jefferson County. TARC service is very limited in the suburban counties and the other public transportation operators in these counties (Louisville Wheels in Bullitt County and Opie in Oldham County) operate on a much smaller scale than TARC. The relatively low residential development density in the suburban counties makes it difficult to provide effective county-wide public transportation with a limited operating budget. TARC Ridership The total annual boardings on all TARC fixed routes have decreased since the mid 1990 s from about 17 million boardings per year to under 15 million boardings in 2013, a decrease of about 14%. TARC ridership experienced a short-term peak in 2008, which coincided with the spike in fuel prices that occurred around that time. After 2008, ridership decreased significantly until 2012 when there was a slight rebound in ridership. Over this same time period, the population of the steadily increased. The population of the region in 1994 was about 931,000 as compared to about million in 2013, an increase of about 17%. With about 17% more 12

15 people making 14% fewer trips on TARC, the annual TARC boardings per capita has decreased from about 18 per person per year in 1994 to a low of about 13 per person per year in TARC s total annual boardings and regional population are shown in the graph and table below: 20,000,000 Total Annual TARC Boardings vs. al Population 1,100,000 Total TARC Annual Boardings 19,000,000 18,000,000 17,000,000 16,000,000 15,000,000 14,000,000 13,000,000 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000, ,050,000 1,000, , , ,000 Total Population TARC Ridership al Population Sources: TARC and US Census Bureau Intercensal Population Estimates 13

16 TARC Year Ridership (Annual Boardings) al Population Annual Boardings per capita ,894, , ,249, , ,373, , ,288, , ,443, , ,918, , ,469, , ,566, , ,581, , ,816, , ,306, , ,646,410 1,006, ,835,796 1,018, ,279,958 1,031, ,364,856 1,043, ,070,578 1,053, ,405,530 1,060, ,056,838 1,069, ,839,818 1,075, ,610,208 1,085, Sources: TARC and US Census Bureau Intercensal Population Estimates 14

17 Safety al Statistics For the three year time period from 2009 through 2011, there were 116,909 crashes in the. 289 of these crashes (0.25%) resulted in a total of 307 fatalities reported over this time period. The majority of crashes (76%) that occurred in the region occurred in Jefferson County. Jefferson County also had the highest crash rate, measured in the number of crashes per million vehicle-miles traveled. There were 4.15 crashes for every million vehicle-miles traveled in Jefferson County, compared to 3.62 crashes per million VMT in the. Crash statistics are summarized below: County Total Crashes Fatal Crashes Fatalities 3-Year VMT Estimate (in millions) Crash Rate (crashes/million VMT) Bullitt 5, , Jefferson 89, , Oldham 3, , Clark 11, , Floyd 7, , Total 116, , Sources: Kentucky State Police and Indiana Automated Reporting Information Exchange System Databases 15

18 Fatalities Approximately 65% of the crashes in the region resulting in fatalities occurred in Jefferson County, while approximately 76% of all crashes in the region occurred in Jefferson County. Despite the large number of fatal crashes occurring in Jefferson County, it had the second lowest fatal crash rate in terms of fatal crashes per million vehicle-miles traveled. This is consistent with state and national data that show higher rates of fatal crashes in rural areas as compared to urban areas. The total numbers of crashes that resulted in a fatality in the past ten years in the are shown in the table and graph below. Despite some fluctuations in the data from year to year, the number of fatal crashes per year is trending downward. This trend is consistent with state and national trends. Year Total Fatal Crashes in Total Fatal Crashes in Total Fatal Crashes in Linear (Total Fatal Crashes in ) Sources: Kentucky State Police and Indiana Automated Reporting Information Exchange System Databases al statistics about the crashes that occurred between 2009 and 2011 and resulted in fatalities are listed below: By roadway type: o The majority of the fatal crashes (56%) occurred on state and federal highways (non-interstates). o 18% of fatal crashes occurred on freeways and interstates. o 24% of fatal crashes occurred on non-state owned roadways. By user type (includes data from only the Kentucky portion of the region): o 41 crashes (17%) that resulted in a fatality involved pedestrians. o 5 crashes (2%) that resulted in a fatality involved bicyclists. o 27 crashes (11%) that resulted in a fatality involved motorcyclists. 16

19 High Crash Locations In an effort to determine the worst locations over the entire region in terms of crashes, this analysis identifies locations where there were 200 or more crashes within a tenth of a mile of one another during the analysis period that included There are a total of 24 locations in the region that meet this threshold, only four of which were outside of Jefferson County. There were no locations in Floyd and Oldham Counties that met this threshold. Due to the proximity with other roadways and with other intersections, several locations cover larger areas than others. The high crash locations are shown in the map and described below: Map Showing High Crash Locations in the 17

20 Location Description Downtown Louisville Broadway: Brook St. to 4th St. Market St.: Brook St. to 4th St. Jefferson St.: Brook St. to 5th St. Liberty St.: Preston St. to 5th St. Muhammad Ali Blvd.: Brook St. to 1st St. Brook St.: Broadway to Market St. 1st St: Jacob St. to Market St. 2nd St.: Liberty St. to Main St. US 31W (Dixie Highway) Near Crums Ln/7th Street Rd. Intersection Near Rockford Ln. Intersection Between Upper Hunters Trace and Lower Hunters Trace US 31E (Bardstown Road) Between Grinstead Dr. and Baxter Ave. Near Eastern Pkwy. Intersection Between Goldsmith Ln. and Gardiner Ln. Near intersections with Buechel Bypass and Hikes Ln. North of I-265 Interchange US 60 (Shelbyville Road) Near Breckenridge Ln./Chenoweth Ln. Intersection Between Sherburn Ln. and Oxmoor Ln. KY 1747 (Hurstbourne Parkway) KY 1932 (Breckenridge Lane) Near Taylorsville Rd. Intersection Near Bluegrass Pkwy. Intersection Near I-64 Interchange Between Hikes Ln. and Taylorsville Rd. Between I-264 Interchange and Dutchmans Pkwy. Near Shelbyville Rd. Intersection KY 61 (Preston Highway) Near Outer Loop Intersection Near Grade Ln. Intersection KY 864 (Poplar Level Near I-264 Interchange Road) KY 1865 (New Cut Road) Near Outer Loop Intersection Clark County Near I-65/Court Ave. Interchange 10th St.: Near Springdale Rd. Intersection 10th St.: Near Allison Ln./Holman Ln. Intersection Bullitt County KY 44: Between Adam Shepherd Pkwy. and I-65 Interchange Table Showing High Crash Locations (200+ within 0.1 mile) in the 18

21 All of the high crash locations are located on some of the roadways in the region with the highest traffic volumes and near major interchanges. Bardstown Road is the corridor with the most high crash locations located along it. There are five unique high crash locations on and near Bardstown Road that are spread throughout the corridor in Jefferson County. Dixie Highway in the vicinity of I-264 and Hurstbourne Parkway between Taylorsville Road and I-64 are also notable for the abundance of high crash locations in these areas. Congestion Level of Service (LOS) Analysis Level of Service (LOS) is a qualitative method that is commonly used to describe the severity of congestion on roadways. It is very similar to letter grades in school, with Levels of Service ranging from A through F. LOS A represents uncongested or free-flow conditions and LOS F representing severely congested conditions. In urban areas, congestion as severe as LOS D is generally thought to be acceptable. For the, the current LOS on arterials, freeways, and interstates in the was assessed based on recent traffic counts. In urban areas, congestion as severe as LOS D is generally thought to be acceptable, so a roadway was considered to be congested in this analysis if the LOS is E or F. The current LOS values are based on average daily traffic (ADT) estimates compared to an estimate of the daily capacity of each section of the region s freeways and arterials. These levels of congestion were used in the analyses throughout this report. There may be additional locations of congestion that users experience that are caused by conditions that create local bottlenecks or exist only during the peak hours of the day. The maps on the following pages show locations of congestion, both current congestion levels based on recent traffic counts, as well as forecasted congestion levels in the year The 2030 congestion analysis was generated in part from a scenario that was created in s regional travel demand model. In this modeled scenario, it is assumed that only those projects that are currently in s Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) are added to the modeled network, beyond what presently exists. Additionally, the 2030 growth forecasts for population, households, and employment in s current Metropolitan Transportation Plan were assumed as inputs to this scenario. 19

22 Currently in Jefferson County, congestion is widespread over many different corridors in all portions of the county. Most notable on this map is the congestion on I-71 from I-64 to I-265 and along I-64 from I-65 to Hurstbourne Parkway. These two interstates serve as major commuting routes from eastern Jefferson County and surrounding counties, and also serve the long distance trips through the region, including those trips made by trucks. With the expected completion of the East End Bridge in 2016, those trips between Indiana and eastern Jefferson County and points beyond will have an additional option available to them. Significant portions of other major roadways that are currently significantly congested include: Shelbyville Road in St. Matthews and Middletown Bardstown Road near I-265 Dixie Highway between the Gene Snyder Freeway and I

23 The Year 2030 Projected Level of Service map in Jefferson County shows widespread congestion throughout most of the county. Congestion is expected to be especially severe in the eastern suburbs. Most sections of I-71, I-64, and I-265 are expected to be congested. Portions of many major arterials are expected to become congested in the suburbs as well, including Dixie Highway, Bardstown Road, Taylorsville Road, Preston Highway, among many others. It is important to reiterate that the analysis that generated these traffic forecasts assumes that only those projects that are currently in s Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) were added to the existing roadway network. Also, the existing socioeconomic forecasts for 2030 were assumed as well. As was mentioned earlier in this report, these forecasts will be updated prior to the update of Connecting Kentuckiana, and will reflect more recent conditions and assumptions. 21

24 There are no interstates or arterials that are currently experiencing significant congestion in Oldham County. 22

25 The projected level of service analysis shows significant congestion in Oldham County in Most importantly, significant congestion is expected on the most significant roadway in the county, I-71, from Jefferson County to LaGrange. Not only is I-71 expected to be congested, but all of the parallel routes connecting Oldham and Jefferson Counties are expected to be congested as well. These include KY 22, KY 146, and US 42. Congestion to this extent would have a major impact on Oldham County residents that commute to Jefferson County for work. Freight traffic along I-71 would also be negatively impacted. 23

26 Congestion is currently not a major issue in Bullitt County. Relatively short segments of KY 44 and KY 61 in Shepherdsville and Mt. Washington are currently experiencing congestion. 24

27 Congestion in Bullitt County is expected to become more severe by 2030, due at least in part to the amount of population and employment growth that is expected. This is particularly true in the more densely populated northern Bullitt County, where this analysis shows that all major routes that cross the Bullitt/Jefferson County border are expected to become severely congested. Additionally, the major north-south artery through Bullitt County, I-65, is expected to become very congested by Congestion to this extent could have major ramifications for commuters that commute to/from Jefferson County and for freight traffic along I

28 Congestion is not currently a major issue in Clark County. 26

29 While congestion is expected to become more widespread in Clark County by 2030, it is not expected to be nearly as severe as in several of the other counties in the region. There are some exceptions, with a significant one being the SR 62/10 th Street Corridor which not only connects Jeffersonville and Charlestown, but is also the site of the River Ridge Commerce Center, the site of thousands of expected new jobs. There is no significant congestion expected on the interstates in Clark County within the urbanized area. 27

30 Significant congestion in Floyd County occurs at only a few locations at this time. The most significant location is on I-64 between US 150 and I-265. The congestion is isolated to the eastbound lanes due to a lane imbalance over this section of I-64 where there are currently only two lanes in the eastbound direction as compared to three in the westbound direction. 28

31 Congestion is not expected to become significantly worse in Floyd County by It is expected to exist at only a few locations. The most significant location is on I-64 between Georgetown and I-265. Similar to the current conditions, the congestion is isolated to the eastbound lanes due to a lane imbalance over this section of I-64 where there are only two lanes in the eastbound direction as compared to three in the westbound direction. 29

32 Vehicle Miles Traveled The amount of overall travel on roadways is typically measured by vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The VMT in an area is a measure of all of the vehicles that traveled on all roadways in that area multiplied by how many miles they traveled. It is impractical to accurately measure this metric, so it is estimated in each county on a yearly basis, based on traffic counts that are performed at the same location each time they are counted. Until 2007, nationwide VMT increased at a consistent rate over time (see the graph on the following page) as population has increased, and as trip lengths have increased with suburban development. This trend changed around From 2008 until the present, VMT have not surpassed the 2007 levels and have remained somewhat stable. The reasons for this decrease are thought to be numerous, but the timing of the decrease in VMT coincides with: Higher fuel prices An economic recession that resulted in higher unemployment An increase in the number of older adults, who tend to drive fewer miles Various other factors Annual Vehicle-Miles Traveled (Billion Miles) 3,150 3,100 3,050 3,000 2,950 2,900 2,850 2,800 2,750 2,700 2,650 2,600 2,550 2,500 2,450 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 Total VMT on All Roads in the United States Source: FHWA Office of Highway Policy Information Traffic Volume Trends, September 2014 Report 30 Year

33 The trends in VMT growth in Kentucky and Indiana generally resemble the national trends. Statewide VMT in Kentucky steadily increased for many years, experienced a short-term peak in 2007, and have fluctuated since Statewide VMT in Indiana were fairly consistent from 2001 through 2007, and have fluctuated since then. Estimated Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (in thousands) Indiana Kentucky U.S.A.* , , ,480 7,015, , , ,519 7,193, , , ,224 7,341, , , ,278 7,526, , , ,116 7,659, , , ,405 7,823, , , ,479 7,918, , , ,948 8,123, , , ,823 8,190, , , ,519 8,259, , , ,150 8,304, , , ,249 8,155, , , ,415 8,101, , , ,662 8,127, , , ,015 8,026, , , ,442 8,051, , , ,914 8,125,000 Sources: Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Indiana Department of Transportation, and Federal Highway Administration VMT in the have remained relatively flat since 1997 at around 29,000,000 per day. VMT over this time period have decreased in Jefferson County, remained relatively consistent in Clark County, and have increased in Floyd, Bullitt, and Oldham Counties. See the table and graph on the following page for more information on VMT trends. 31

34 Estimated Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (in thousands) Clark Floyd Bullitt Jefferson Oldham ,595 2,201 2,054 20,049 1,155 29, ,642 2,191 2,074 20,712 1,249 29, ,810 2,264 2,111 21,039 1,305 30, ,881 2,292 2,078 19,084 1,278 28, ,754 2,381 2,037 18,336 1,303 27, ,536 2,412 2,141 18,907 1,264 28, ,674 2,411 2,245 19,199 1,331 28, ,675 2,421 2,323 19,620 1,384 29, ,633 2,338 2,297 19,662 1,391 29, ,656 2,334 2,381 19,666 1,423 29, ,782 2,396 2,366 19,583 1,382 29, ,705 2,438 2,323 19,313 1,356 29, ,017 2,888 2,395 19,162 1,342 29, ,096 2,939 2,426 19,592 1,409 29, ,920 2,808 2,506 19,386 1,419 30, ,752 2,590 2,511 19,115 1,365 29, ,633 2,085 2,517 19,139 1,377 28,751 Sources: Kentucky Transportation Cabinet and Indiana Department of Transportation 20.00% Percentage Change in VMT Since % 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% % % National Sources: Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Indiana Department of Transportation, and Federal Highway Administration 32

35 VMT Per Capita An alternative way to gauge total travel trends is to examine VMT per capita. VMT per capita is the ratio of the average number of miles driven in an area to the population of an area. Due to the influence of travel within an area from those that live outside of an area, this does not necessarily reflect the average miles traveled per day by residents of an area. VMT per capita better reflects changes in travel behavior than VMT by itself due to it reflecting changes in both VMT and population. The recent trends in VMT per capita show significant changes in travel, especially on the national level, where annual VMT per capita have decreased by over 7% from the peak in Over this same time period, overall VMT have decreased by less than 2%. Within the, VMT per capita have decreased despite overall VMT increasing since This is particularly true in Bullitt and Oldham Counties, where VMT per capita decreased significantly despite the VMT growth experienced over this same time period that accompanied significant population growth in these counties. Estimated Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled Per Capita Clark Floyd Bullitt Jefferson Oldham U.S.A.* * (Annual VMT/365) Per Capita Sources: Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Indiana Department of Transportation, and Federal Highway Administration 33

36 Commuting Patterns al commuting patterns are typically analyzed using what is known as Journey to Work Data. The Journey to Work Data provide estimates of the number of residents commuting to their primary job at the county level. This data has traditionally been released every ten years as a part of each decennial Census. However, this was discontinued with the 2010 Census but was included in the American Community Survey (ACS) instead. The ACS Data provide rolling 5-year estimates. The ACS Data for the entire Area Development District is shown in the table below, and maps showing commuting patterns within the MPO are shown on the following pages. The county that the commuter lives in is shown on the rows, while the county the commuter works in is shown in the columns. As an example of how to read the following table using the first row, the ACS Data tell us that approximately 9,792 residents of Bullitt County also work in Bullitt County, while approximately 21,001 residents of Bullitt County commute to Jefferson County for their primary job. Residence County American Community Survey Journey to Work Data Workplace County Bullitt Henry Jefferson Oldham Shelby Spencer Trimble Clark Floyd External Bullitt 9, , ,697 Henry 9 2,462 1,070 1, Jefferson 3, ,855 2,972 2, ,215 2,602 9,520 Oldham ,474 8, ,052 Shelby , , ,532 Spencer , , Trimble , ,222 Clark , ,936 6,315 2,497 Floyd , ,617 14,680 1,763 Source: Note: Numbers in grey italics represent situations where the margins of error exceed the number of commuters The maps on the following show the commuting patterns from the ACS Journey to Work Data. The maps represent commuting from all 5 MPO counties to all 9 of the ADD counties, plus those that commute to a workplace located outside of the 9-county region. 34

37 The map on this page shows that the majority of the workers that live in Bullitt County commute to work in Jefferson County. Over twice as many Bullitt County residents work in Jefferson County than work in Bullitt County. Jefferson County is the only county within the, other than Bullitt County itself, where a significant number of Bullitt County residents work. Among all counties in the other than Jefferson County, Bullitt County has the most residents working in Jefferson County. Population forecasts show that Bullitt County is expected to grow significantly, which could impact the major roadways connecting these two counties (I-65, KY 61, and US 31E). Evidence of this can be seen in the 2030 congestion analysis, where all major roads connecting these two counties are expected to operate at LOS F at the county boundary. 35

38 The map on this page shows the commuting patterns of residents of Jefferson County. Unlike every other county in the, the vast majority (92%) of residents of Jefferson County that are in the workforce work in their home county. Despite the low percentages of Jefferson County residents that work outside of Jefferson County, it is important to recognize that nearly 30,000 residents of Jefferson County work outside of Jefferson County. This number is greater than the entire workforce of Oldham County, so inter-county commuting is an important consideration for all counties in this region, including Jefferson County. 36

39 The map on this page shows commuting patterns of residents of Oldham County. Similar to the other suburban counties in the region, many Oldham County residents work in Jefferson County. Nearly twice as many residents of Oldham County work in Jefferson County than work in Oldham County. There are no other counties that a significant number of Oldham County commuters commute to each day. It is important to consider the connection between Oldham and Jefferson County when considering future roadway projects. The 2030 congestion analysis shows that all major roadways (I-71, US 42, KY 22, and KY 146) that connect these two counties are expected to operate at LOS F at the county boundary. 37

40 The map on this page shows commuting patterns of residents of Clark County. Unlike the suburban counties in Kentucky, Clark County has more residents that work in their home county than work in Jefferson County. Also unlike the suburban Kentucky counties, there are a significant number of residents of Clark County that work in a county other than Jefferson County, with that other county being Floyd County in this case. The Ohio River Bridges Project will approximately double the capacity of the cross-river connections between Clark and Jefferson Counties. The 2030 congestion analysis indicates that there will be no significant congestion on the two interstate bridge connections that will connect these counties (I-65 and I-265). However, the same analysis shows that the Clark Memorial Bridge (US 31) will likely be congested as drivers divert to that bridge to avoid paying tolls. 38

41 The map on this page shows commuting patterns of residents of Floyd County. The commuting patterns in Floyd County are very similar to those in Clark County in that there are more residents of Floyd County working in their home county than working in Jefferson County, and there is also a significant link between Floyd and Clark County. Unlike Clark County, there is no additional cross-river capacity expansion planned, and the 2030 congestion analysis shows that the Sherman Minton (I-264) Bridge is expected to operate at LOS F. It is expected that the tolls on the new bridges will create some amount of diversion of traffic to the Sherman Minton Bridge as drivers choose to avoid the tolls. The extent of this diversion is unknown at this time, but will be important to monitor because it could have a significant impact on regional travel patterns and behaviors. 39

42 Access to Workplace Issues related to regional access to workplaces were examined on several different levels for this analysis. The criteria were more stringent than those in the TAD Reports. These criteria are: major employers (1,000+ employees), high density employment (5,000+ employees within 0.25 miles of each other), high density retail (100+ retail facilities within 0.25 miles of each other), and commerce parks. Major Employers There are 24 major employers located in the with 1,000 or more employees at a single location. With this number of employees reporting to one location, they can be among the most major trip generators in the region. In several portions of the region, there are several major employers located close to each other. An example of these locations that include multiple major employers is the complex of hospitals and medical centers located east of I-65 and north of Broadway in downtown Louisville. Another example is the area in downtown Louisville between Main and Liberty Streets, from 2 nd to 6 th Street, where several major employers are located as well as numerous other employers operating in major high-rise office buildings. Providing quality access to the locations of these major employers is important to the local economy. This includes access via freeways and arterials as well as access to public transit. All of the major employers located in downtown Louisville are well served by TARC and by the network of freeways and major roads serving the region. Outside of the Central Business District (CBD) of downtown Louisville, the quality of access to the major employers varies. All major employers are located along or near at least one TARC route, though the quality of service (frequency and connections with other routes) varies greatly. The major employers (1,000+ employees at a single location) in the are listed below and are shown on the map on the following page: Humana Chase Norton Hospital Floyd Memorial Hospital UPS Worldport Clark Memorial Hospital General Electric Sts. Mary & Elizabeth Hospital Ford KY Truck Plant UPS Air Cargo Kosair Children s Hospital Beach Mold & Tool Baptist East Hospital Brown-Forman Ford Louisville Assembly Plant BA Merchant Services University of Louisville JBS Swift University of Louisville Hospital Kindred Healthcare PNC Bank Yum! Brands Publishers Press SHPS 40

43 Map Showing Major Employers (1000 or more employees) in the 41

44 High Density Employment When considering transportation issues related to access to workplaces in the region, it is important to consider not only the most major employers, but also those areas where a number of workplaces are located in close proximity to others. There are five locations in the, all in Jefferson County, that have 5,000 or more employees working within a quarter mile of one another. Each of these locations includes one or more of the major employers listed above: Downtown Louisville (includes high-rise office buildings and medical complex) I-65/KY 1747 (Fern Valley Road) Interchange Area (UPS Worldport) KY 1932 (Breckenridge Lane)/Kresge Way Area (Baptist East Hospital) Chamberlain Lane Area (Ford Kentucky Truck Plant) Gardiner Lane Area (Yum! Brands) All of these locations are relatively well-served by the existing transportation system. They are all served by one or more TARC Routes and are located near one or more interstates. Convenient interstate access not only provides better access for the large number of employees that work in the area, it also makes it more convenient for trucks to make deliveries to these locations. With so many employees working in these areas, the employees are likely to commute to these areas from throughout the region. Therefore, congestion is currently an issue for each of these areas to varying extents. Downtown Louisville is the area that is most impacted by congestion at this time since portions of several key commuting routes, including I- 64, I-71, and I-65, are congested. Congestion is expected to become more severe and far more widespread in the 2030 projections. Each of the high density employment areas is projected to be directly impacted by congestion near to it by There are high crash areas located in and around downtown Louisville and near Baptist East Hospital. These high crash areas cause non-recurring congestion that can be major issues for commuters to these areas. Commerce Parks Among the nearly 50 commerce parks located in the, there are four very large commerce parks, both in terms of land area and the number of employees that work at these locations: Jefferson Riverport Bluegrass Commerce Park Clark Maritime Center/Port of Indiana-Jeffersonville River Ridge Commerce Center The locations of the commerce parks vary in terms of the quality of access that the existing transportation system provides to them. They are each uniquely located at these locations due to the proximity to the Ohio River or to the network of interstates. Each of these locations is served by at least one TARC route, though none of the routes are among TARC s highest quality routes, in terms of heaviest ridership or frequency of service. Congested roadways are currently an issue only near the Bluegrass Commerce Park in Jeffersontown. However, congested roadways are expected to be an issue near several of these major commerce parks by The provision of quality transportation access to these locations can be critical in terms of how they can attract new and expanded businesses to the region, and generating significant positive economic impacts in the process. A map showing the locations of high density employment areas and commerce parks in the is shown on the following page. 42