Monmouth County Adam Nassr (Partner: Brian Berkowitz, Ocean County)

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1 Monmouth County Adam Nassr (Partner: Brian Berkowitz, Ocean County) 1. County Summary Monmouth County, founded in 1675, is the northernmost county along the Jersey Shore in the state of New Jersey. It is frequently listed as one of the top ten best counties in the United States in which to live, ranked 42 nd in the United States in terms of income and 53 rd in per capita income. Monmouth County has a total area of approximately 665 square miles (472 square miles of land, 193 square miles of water), making it one of the largest counties in the state of New Jersey. The county is flat and coastal, with many bays and beaches that attract the counties many tourists during the summer months. In the year 2000, Monmouth County had a population of 615,301, which has risen to approximately 642,448 in It is comprised of 53 municipalities, the most populous among them being Middletown Township. Monmouth County s main attractions include Six Flags Great America (on the border with Ocean County), Freehold Raceway (horse racing arena) and its accompanying Freehold Raceway Mall. In addition, of course, there is the northern part of the Jersey Shore, which has become an increasingly popular tourist destination in the summer for residents of the New York and Philadelphia metropolitan areas. Traffic through this county significantly increases in the summer months as its major attractions including the shore are frequented only in warm weather. The majority of the county is not served by public transportation. However, the county offers 14 New Jersey Transit (heavy rail) stations and approximately 20 Park & Ride locations. Due to the high traffic coming into Monmouth County, there is promise for the success of a PRT system in this county. However, although the eastern regions of the county are densely populated, the western regions are much more dispersed and rural. This can cause a potential PRT system to be inefficient. Serving greater than 90% of trips in the county with a PRT system is possible, but may be a challenge due to the dispersed western regions of the county. However, if it works, a PRT system can help lead the way in revolutionizing the transportation industry by reducing our dependence on foreign oil, and thus, help protect the environment.

2 The following are links to previous PRT proposals for Monmouth County: 2008 ORF 467 PRT Proposal 2007 ORF 467 PRT Proposal 2004 ORF 467 PRT Proposal 2. Initial Network 2.1 Design In desigining our PRT network for Monmouth County, the first step was data collection. This was separated into various categories, including Housing, Work, Recreation, School, and Public Transportation. Our housing data was made available by the state. Work data was collected from a database of businesses in New Jersey and their respective employment numbers. School data was collected from a similar database. The recreation areas in the county were found through the county s website, listing all of the counties various attractions. Finally, public transportation trips were found through New Jersey transit, which provides all of the public transporation available in Monmouth County. To no surprise, many of the trips needing to be served were along the coast where the Jersey Shore is loacated. This is illustrated in the picture on the left, the many beaches being the green placemarks along the coast. Thus, it was an appropriate place to begin in designing our network. We decided to begin along the coast of Monmouth County, adding stations at all of the major beaches along the east and north coasts. This was relatively straightforward, as there was a major road along the majority of the coast of the county. We were able to follow this road and place all of our stations optimally. The Monmouth County coastal network consists of approximately 60 stations along the main coastal route, not including the stations placed on perpendicular branches added later. These perpendicular routes lead towards the inner regions of the county, where potential beachgoers live. The coastal line consists of two sub-networks. The first is the eastern coast and the second subnetwork Is the northern coast of the county. The first sub-network, parts of which are shown below, follows the eastern coast of the county. It contains approximately 27 stations and 6 interchanges. There are a low number of interchanges due to the fact that the perpendicular lines were not yet added. The northern part of the eastern coast is a bit less densely populated, and most of the stations are placed at the

3 major beaches. The southern part of the eastern coast also has a fair amount of beaches, but also quite a bit of housing. These stations are generally placed closer together. As illustrated in the pictures above of the eastern coastal network, we did our best to follow the major roads that are already in place, minimizing the interference with housing establishments and other buildings that are currently in place. The first sub-network connects the the second sub-network in the very northeast region of the county as depicted below. This picture also depicts the Sandy Hook area of Monmouth County. It is a peninsula, extending from the northeast corner of the county. It contains only one station, at its most popular beach and recreation area in the far north. It is arguable whether or not this station is

4 worth servicing because it is so far out of the way, but because it is one of the main attractions in the county, we chose to service it with a station. The second sub network, depicted below, was constructed in a similar fashion, following the northern coast of Monmouth County. There are several beaches along the northern coast of the county, but not as many as along the eastern coast. This sub-network contains approximately 33 stations and 18 interchanges. This coast had more stations initially because although it had fewer beaches, it was much more populous, which we did our best to service initially without extending too far off the main roads. 2.2 Summary Summary statistics for the initial PRT network are shown below, along with a plot of the daily trip ends served by each station sorted in decreasing value of trip-ends served:

5 Trip-Ends Served Per Station: Monmouth County Trip-Ends Served Per Day MC 360 MC 653 MC 640 MC 637 MC 195 MC 639 MC 636 MC 642 MC 631 MC 366 MC 192 MC 635 MC 585 MC 629 MC 630 MC 593 MC 578 MC 645 MC 33 MC 64 MC 632 MC 647 MC 190 MC 646 MC 649 MC 591 MC 581 MC 3 MC 634 MC 1 MC 44 Highest to Lowest Although this network has only 60 stations and 24 interchanges, it has approximately 96 miles of guideway. This is a large amount of guideway, but it is understandable because the county is so large, and this network moves along its entire length and width. We can see how vital this network is to the Monmouth County, serving approximately 8.9% of the trip-ends. The summary statistics show that it is a relatively expensive network to construct and will turn a $50 million annual loss. This is because of the amount of guideway used to construct it. However, although this network loses money, it serves as a starting point for many perpendicular tracks that lead inward to the majority of the housing and working areas. This is not taken into account in these calculations, but in the next section, we will prove that the PRT system as a whole will be profitable. 3. Final Network 3.1 Design The final network covers nearly the entirety of Monmouth County with an interconnected personal rapid transit system. It originally consisted of 656 stations, but after performing cost analysis 8 stations were deemed cost inefficient and removed, leaving 648 total. Although the cost of guideways is fairly expensive, we decided that because of the size and layout of Monmouth County, two-way guideways would be much more beneficial than trying to connect multiple one way guideways into a functional network. This is due to the fact that in many instances, there are stations that are relatively close together, but following roads in a one-way system would take passengers on a very long route to travel this short distance.

6 Above is a picture of the entire PRT network. We can see here that the PRT system implemented outlines and fills the shape of Monmouth County. This is expected, as it is a very populous county. Also apparent, as described above, is the rural and dispersed western region of the county that was a bit of a challenge to service while remaining cost efficient. Although it may not be obvious from this image, we decided to use the tree and branch strategy of implementing stations in Monmouth County. We felt that it was conducive to this strategy as there are several major roads that span the county, including the Garden State Parkway and New Jersey Turnpike. These offered great throughways from which we could branch off and access stations, much like a highway with exits. Because this strategy requires much branching, there are a large number of interchanges (583 in total) used, as expected. Many shape points were used to remain on the major roads, and even more were used in the branches, which led to smaller winding paths. We chose to stay on these roads, as explained before, because for this PRT system to be implemented realistically, it must cause as little interference to people s lives as possible. Following roads ensured that people would not have to relocate because of interfering guideways.

7 The sparse areas of Monmouth Country are mainly located in the very center (left image) and in the jutting handle in the southwest (right image). These pictures illustrate how large amounts of guideway and few stations were used to service these areas, making them the most inefficient areas of the county to service. The image on the left depicts the Garden State Parkway, and its use as a tree from which we were able to branch off and access many stations. The image on the right is a more detailed depiction of the branching strategy used. Here, off of a main road on the northern coast, we were able to branch off and reach stations further away from the main route. Overall the PRT system served approximately 86.75% of the trips and collected a profit of approximately $195 million dollars a year. Monmouth County s size, attractions, and spanning road system thus make it a promising place for a successful PRT system.

8 3.2 Summary Summary statistics for the initial PRT network are shown below, along with a plot of the daily trip ends served by each station sorted in decreasing value of trip-ends served: Trip-Ends Served Per Station: Monmouth County Trip-Ends Served Per Day MC 149 MC 656 MC 375 MC 567 MC 153 MC 262 MC 157 MC 114 MC 626 MC 90 MC 476 MC 629 MC 317 MC 601 MC 363 MC 433 MC 599 MC 358 MC 320 MC 52 MC 171 MC 270 MC 444 MC 295 MC 253 MC 337 MC 145 MC 98 MC 458 MC 350 MC 460 Highest to Lowest The final network consists of 648 stations, 583 interchanges, and miles of guideway. The network serves 4,294,361 out of the total 4,949,811 trips available, resulting in 86.75% of the total trips serviced. The system is expensive to implement, with capital costs of approximately $ billion. The system s annual costs total $1.283 billion, while annual revenue totals $1.478 billion dollars. With a three-dollar fare, this results in a yearly profit of approximately $195 million. It would take over 50 years of profit to pay off the initial capital cost which is a significant period of time. However, the government, due to its promise of reducing our dependence on foreign oil and protecting our environment, should subsidize this system significantly. There are also further steps that can be taken to reduce the cost of this system, analyzing optimal routes and reducing the amount of guideway used. This is where a majority of the cost for the system is generated, but there is surely room for slimming and improvement.