2014 Certification Review Regional Data & Modeling

Transcription

1 2014 Certification Review Regional Data & Modeling July 22, 2014

2 Regional Data Census Program Coordination PAG works with and for member agencies to ensure full participation in all Census Bureau programs in order to keep the data used in estimates and projections as accurate and complete as possible Department of Administration, PopStats Unit PAG serves as an active member of the Council for Technical Solutions, which assists and advises Arizona Department of Administration staff in the selection and evaluation of data and methodologies for the official state population estimates and projections Travel/Traffic Data HTS, Street segment volume counts, TMC, and Vehicle Classification Counts

3 SAM - IM Land Use Modeling Sub-Area Allocation Model (suitability, probability and allocation) GIS platform Seven land use sectors (Res, Ind, Retl, Who, Serv, FIRE, & Pub) Eastern Pima County: 3,882 square miles

4 Land Use Modeling SAM Model Inputs Projected regional growth of population

5 Land Use Modeling SAM Model Inputs (cont d) Projected regional growth of employment

6 Land Use Modeling SAM Model Inputs (cont d) Existing land use Parcel Data Census Employment data

7 Land Use Modeling SAM Model Inputs (cont d) Future Land Use providing information on allowed development Type & Density General/Comprehensive plans Zoning IGT (Imagine Greater Tucson)

8 Land Use Modeling SAM Model Inputs (cont d) Undevelopable Lands Cemeteries, Parks and Preserves Steep slopes Landfills Others Existing & Planned Infrastructure Systems Accessibility Integration with Travel Demand Model

9 Land Use Modeling SAM Methodology 2012 Parcel Data General Plans Undevelopable Lands Existing Land Use Redevelopment Plan Specific Plan Timeline Dynamic 5 year increments to simulate dynamics Apply SAM to Allocate Growth Future Land Use Emp/Pop Accessibility Infill Proximity to Infrastructure System Proximity to Urban Area

10 SAM Methodology (cont d) Land Use Modeling Evaluate Existing Land Use General Plans Undevelopable Lands Vacant Land Redevelopment Plan Specific Plan Timeline Proximity to Infrastructure System Infill Eligibility Calculation Eligible Land Emp/Pop Accessibility Proximity to Urban Area Dynamic inputs Suitability/Probability Calculation Growth Allocation Future Land Use Built/Target Density Analysis Available Capacity

11 Land Use Modeling SAM Outputs Forecasted Housing Units / Population & Employment by Sectors that can be reported for any selected geography

12 Population MARANA PLANTUCSON 34,274 36,121 43,806 51,089 58,066 64,876 71,857 79,930 TREND01 34,274 36,120 44, ,698 81, , ,097 TREND02 34,274 35,950 42, ,314 95, , ,331 ORO VALLEY PLANTUCSON 40,928 42,510 45,208 47,817 50,493 52,974 55,348 57,793 TREND01 40,928 42,509 45,472 50,169 53,085 58,805 62,703 65,322 TREND02 40,928 42,551 46, ,243 62,905 66,565 68,593 PIMA COUNTY (BALANCE) PLANTUCSON 345, , , , , , , ,336 TREND01 345, , , , , , , ,214 TREND02 345, , , , , , , ,516 SAHUARITA PLANTUCSON 25,193 26,486 31,345 37,869 44,532 48,578 51,702 54,712 TREND01 25,193 26,485 31,683 40,888 47,658 54,021 59,579 63,586 TREND02 25,193 26,349 29,488 37,693 47,842 54,901 59,190 62,402 SOUTH TUCSON PLANTUCSON 5,645 5,902 6,145 6,132 6,133 6,132 6,128 6,152 TREND01 5,645 5,904 6,197 6,393 6,409 6,478 6,501 6,521 TREND02 5,645 5,921 6,431 6,483 6,507 6,514 6,513 6,522 TUCSON PLANTUCSON 518, , , , , , , ,513 TREND01 518, , , , , , , ,695 TREND02 518, , , , , , , ,070

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17 SL Dev Index: 0.3

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19 SL Dev Index: 0.5

20 SL Dev Index: 0.6

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30 Land Use Modeling PAG Member Participation PopTAC assisted in preparation and review of control totals Member jurisdictions help with the preparation & review of model input GIS layers and model outputs

31 Land Use Modeling Current & Future Efforts 2045 RTP Update Analyze land use scenarios Develop inputs for Travel Demand Model Water supply plans CAP Tucson water Explore AZ-SMART (OPUS + UrbanSIM) Model with MAG

32 Travel Demand Modeling Traditional Four-Step Model Trip Generation (cross-classification model) Six Trip Purposes (HBW, HBSCH, HBSH, HBO, NHB, HBUA) Trip Distribution (gravity model & Destination Choice Model) Mode Choice (Nested Logit Model) Assignments (Highway/Transit) Time-of-Day Model AM, Mid-Day, PM, Night Treat the UA as a unique travel market

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34 Travel Demand Modeling Household Models Generation Distribution PM/MID HWY Time Mode Choice Time of Day Factors PM/MID HWY Time Assignment by DOT

35 Travel Demand Modeling Other Model Highlights Eastern Pima County 1,110 TAZs (1,104 in Pima County & 6 in Pinal County) and 11 External Zones

36 Travel Demand Modeling Modeling Analysis Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) TIP Air Quality Modeling Sub-Area and Corridor Planning Studies FTA Small-Starts RTA

37 Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements New trip purpose (HBUA) & Destination Choice Model A comparison of observed & Improved traffic assignment procedure VDF (Link Delay & Node Delay) T f C l V c T * 0 1 * P* * l 1 C 2 s i S * g c g c 2 * 1 i * V i Generalized Link Cost = Congested Travel Time * Distance i * estimated travel speeds f t C Treat the UA as a unique travel market Inclusion of a distance term in generalized cost function

38 (number of vehicles) Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements (cont d) Travel to the CBD is overassigned by 19% Observed Model Total VMT 319, ,951 Difference 4.05% Employment Survey Model-Observed VMT Scatter Plot InfoUSA, QCEW, TRP Employer Survey, Jurisdictions, Staff Field Survey Reduced downtown employment (18,000 to 12,500) (number of vehicles)

39 Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements (cont d) Implement DTA capabilities for the Tucson Region New-Generation Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model In-house work Beyond arterials, including most collector and smaller streets All traffic signals in the region More than 90% stop and yield control locations Used for downtown circulation study to evaluate the traffic impact of lane closures

40 Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements (cont d) New-Generation Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (cont d)

41 Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements (cont d) Improved Traffic Data Collection & Quality Control Three-year contract for better and longer-term relationship with the data collection contractor More rigorous data review Issues with traffic count data accuracy A statistical analysis tool IN PLAN to facilitate the data review

42 Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements (cont d) External Travel Model A joint project with MAG in 2009 License plate number matching In-house model development work Much improved estimate of EE and EI/IE commercial/non-commercial vehicle trips Integrate special markets into travel modeling practices

43 Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements (cont d) Model Calibration/Validation 2008/2009 NHTS Trip Generation Further segmented HH market Adjusted trip production/attraction rates Trip Distribution Based on generalized cost that has both time and distance terms

44 Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements (cont d) Model Calibration/Validation using 2008/2009 NHTS (cont d) Model Choice Model ASC adjustment based on transit ridership data Route # Reported Assigned Assigned/Reported Ratio 1 2,155 2, ,383 1, ,266 3, ,446 6, ,361 1, ,324 3, ,651 2, ,519 9, ,703 2, ,607 1, ,474 3, ,042 2, ,376 6, ,247 3, , ,799 1, ,289 1, ,455 2, ,622 1, ,291 2, , , Total 66,345 66, RMSE% 22.6% 2005 Ratio

45 Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements (cont d) Model Calibration/Validation using 2008/2009 NHTS (Cont d) Traffic Assignment Results VMT RMSE Daily 40% 47% AM 55% 91% Mid-Day 49% 48% PM 46% 62% Night 58% 58% Note: 3143 links were reviewed in 2012, and 1066 in 2005 VMT Difference% Daily 0.5% -6.7% AM 12.9% 5.1% Mid-Day 1.5% -6.5% PM 2.1% 2.2% Night -10.0% -18.7% Note: 3143 links were reviewed in 2012, and 1066 in 2005

46 Travel Demand Modeling Recent Model Improvements (cont d) Activity-Based Model Development Joint project with MAG Provides common framework for mega-regional planning studies Additional capabilities to support transportation policy and Travel Demand Management related studies

47 Travel Demand Modeling Other Ongoing & Planned Efforts SHRP2 C20 Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement, with MAG and Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT), to explore behavior-based freight modeling techniques University of Arizona Student/Employee Travel Survey Bus On-Board Survey Freight Model Development