Coastal flood risk from storm surge to inundation. Introduction Peter Stansby University of Manchester. 26 May 2011
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1 Climate GCM RCM (Met Office) Coastal flood risk from storm surge to inundation Introduction Peter Stansby University of Manchester EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 ROAD MAP Historical ERA-40 wind data Tyndall: Cliff recession (SCAPE model) and dredging Extreme value analysis Uncertainty Risk Extreme analysis Wave Tides Surge SLR CS3 12km grid (NOC) Coastal domain with high resolution FE TELEMAC-2D hydrodynamics TOMAWAC wave propagation SISYPHE - morphodynamics Nearshore wave climate -TOMAWAC Wave by wave overtopping Shallow-water Boussinesq, SPH Breaching HR BREACH model Improved surge (NOC) Wave-averaged overflowing - TELEMAC Beach lowering predictions Inundation - shallow water
2 GENERAL METHODOLOGY Tested on storm at Walcott, Norfolk, 9th November 2007 Walcott flood 9th Nov 2007 (from NOC) Also overtopping measured at Anchorsholme, Blackpool in January 2008 by HR Wallingford for the Environment Agency - field measurements, lab measurements, AIMS Predict inundation accurately from offshore conditions Predict statistics of overtopping/inundation with climate change and sea level rise Improve operational forecasting Analyse uncertainty
3 Walcott flood 9th Nov 2007 (from NOC) Coastal domain Significant wave height from the wave model at 07:00 on 9 th November The colour bar shows the wave height in metres. The arrows show the peak wave direction at that time.
4 courtesy Sylvia Andrews WEVA
5 Ph10 Ph 13 Ph 16 courtesy Sylvia Andrews WEVA courtesy Maurice McCabe assisted by Brian Farrow
6 PEOPLE Nicolas Chini (Tyndall and FRMRC funded, Manchester) Maurice McCabe (EPSRC standard studentship, Manchester) Ben Rogers (RCUK Fellow and part FRMRC funded, Manchester) 6 Renato Vacondio (PhD visitor, Manchester) Rui Xu (PhD MACE scholarship, Manchester) David Apsley (Manchester Lecturer) Alistair Borthwick (Oxford Professor) Kuo Yan (PhD FRMRC funded, Oxford) 4 Jana Orszaghova (PhD standard, Oxford) Myron van Damme (PhD FRMRC funded, Oxford) Dominic Reeve (Plymouth Professor) Jose Horrillo-Caraballo (FRMRC funded, Plymouth) 2 Kevin Horsburgh (POL) Chris Wilson (FRMRC funded, POL) 3 Judith Wolf (POL, part Tyndall funded) ACKNOWLEGMENTS This work is funded through the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and contributes to the Coastal Simulator programme led by Robert Nicholls (Southampton University). Jim Hall and Mike Walkden (Newcastle University) have provided SCAPE model. This was supported by the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC. It is now supported by the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium. The FRMRC is supported by grant EP/F020511/1 from the EPSRC, in partnership with the DEFRA/EA Joint Research Programme on Flood and Coastal Defence, UKWIR, OPW (Ireland) and the Rivers Agency (Northern Ireland). Jason Lowe was supported by the Joint DECC and MoD Integrated Climate Programme - (DECC) GA01101, (MoD) CBC/2B/0417_Annex C5 and Defra. Their financial support is gratefully acknowledged. We would also like to acknowledge Gerard Goasguen (CETMEF) for making the ANEMOC dataset available, Kevin Horsburgh (POL) for providing with the results from CS3X model driven with ERA-40 reanalysis, and the British Oceanographic Data Centre for field wave records. Peter Balson from BGS for providing sediment data offshore of Norfolk.
7 Acknowledgement The research reported in this presentation was conducted as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium with support from the: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs/Environment Agency Joint Research Programme United Kingdom Water Industry Research Office of Public Works Dublin Northern Ireland Rivers Agency Data were provided by the EA and the Ordnance Survey. EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1
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