A look at forecast capabilities of modern ocean wave models

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1 A look at forecast capabilities of modern ocean wave models Jean-Raymond Bidlot European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Waves breaking on the sea front in Ardrossan, Western Scotland, as Storm Gertrude hits the UK on January 29, IMAGE: DANNY LAWSON/PA WIRE/ASSOCIATED PRESS ECMWF November 14, 2017

2 Outline: Wave forecast improvement over the last 20 years. Wave extremes: resolution matters. Forecast of wave extremes: need for ensemble forecast. Output: more than just wave height. Update on ECMWF ongoing re-analysis effort (hindcast of the past).

3 Forecast improvement: 21 years of inter-comparison with in-situ data Locations with long data record (models and observations): Scatter Index: Standard deviation of the difference normalised by mean of observations Steady Improvement by most! Informal activity since 1995, Many global and regional operational centres are involved. Supported by the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM). To be formalised when WMO approves request by ECMWF to become a Lead Centre for Wave Forecast Verification.

4 Yet extremes can be captured but resolution matters North Cormorant Magnusson,, L and Bidlot J Wind and wave forecasts during storm Gertrude/Tor Newsletter 147 ECMWF. Cycle 41r2 in operations since March 2016: High resolution:16 km -> 9 km

5 Yet extremes can be captured but resolution matters 16 km 6 km 24-hour forecast for significant wave height for 00 UTC on 25 November 2011: (a) TL1279 model run (operational configuration then, 16 km), and (b) TL3999 model (5 km). The blue numbers are the corresponding significant wave height observations (data from the UK Met Office, UK WaveNet Programme, Irish Marine Institute, and Faroese Office of Public Works). Wedi NP, Hamrud M, Mozdzynski G, Austad G, Curic S, Bidlot J Global, nonhydrostatic, convection-permitting, medium-range forecasts: progress and challenges. Newsletter 133, ECMWF.

6 Hurricane Sandy: Yet extremes can be captured but resolution matters Observations for the NDBC New York Harbour entrance buoy (left) and NDBC Long Island buoy (right) and forecast data, initialised 27 October 00UTC, We compare the TL1279 operational high resolution forecast (16 km) and the TL639 control forecast from the operational ensemble forecast (32 km), together with a forecast using TL319 (64 km) and an experimental ultra-high resolution TL3999 (5 km). Magnusson L., J.-R. Bidlot, S. Lang, L., A. Thorpe, N. Wedi and M. Yamaguchi, 2013: Evaluation of medium-range forecasts for hurricane Sandy. Mon. Wea. Rev.

7 Forecasting extremes: Ensemble approach From an ensemble of wave forecasts it is possible to derive probabilities for certain wave conditions. Tuesday 6 November UTC ECMWF EPS Probability Forecast t+120 VT: Sunday 11 November UTC Surface: significant wave height probability > W 20 W 15 W 10 W 5 W 0 5 E 10 E 15 E 20 E E 8 m Significant wave height (m) at Heidrun N MIKE HEIDRUN DRAUGEN E 50% Forecast day 25 W 20 E % N N 15 E W 15 W 10 W 5 W 0 5 E 10 E 06 Nov UTC ECMWF EPS probability forecast t+120 Significant wave height above 8 m 0

8 Forecasting extremes: Ensemble approach Cycle 41r2 in operations since March 2016: Ensemble: 32 km -> 18 km North Cormorant 32 km 18 km Magnusson,, L and Bidlot J Wind and wave forecasts during storm Gertrude/Tor Newsletter 147 ECMWF.

9 Forecasting extremes: Ensemble approach From the model climate, it is possible to derive indices that indicate deviations in probabilistic terms from what is expected. Extreme Forecast Index (EFI): 1 means that all EPS are above climate. EFI and shift of tail for significant wave height Tue 27 Jan 2016, 00 UTC, t= percentile of the distribution for significant wave height Gertrude (UK), Tor (Norway) Max of Significant Wave Height forecast from t=60-72

10 Forecasting extremes: Ensemble approach From the model climate, it is possible to derive indices that indicate deviations in probabilistic terms from what is expected. Extreme Forecast Index (EFI): 1 means that all EPS are above climate. EFI and shift of tail for significant wave height Tue 26 Jan 2016, 00 UTC, t= percentile of the distribution for significant wave height Gertrude (UK), Tor (Norway) Max of Significant Wave Height forecast from t=84-96

11 Forecasting extremes: Ensemble approach From the model climate, it is possible to derive indices that indicate deviations in probabilistic terms from what is expected. Extreme Forecast Index (EFI): 1 means that all EPS are above climate. EFI and shift of tail for significant wave height Tue 29 Jan 2016, 00 UTC, t= percentile of the distribution for significant wave height Gertrude (UK), Tor (Norway) Max of Significant Wave Height forecast from t=12-24

12 Wave model products: The complete description of the sea state is given by the 2-D spectrum, however, it is a fairly large amount of data. Wave model It is therefore reduced to integrated quantities: 1-D spectrum obtained by integrating the 2-D spectrum over all directions and/or over a frequency range. 2-D spectrum 1-D spectrum

13 E( f ) Wave model products: When simple numbers are required, the following parameters are available: The significant wave height (Hs). peak The peak period (period of the peak of the 1-D spectrum). Mean period(s) obtained from weighted integration of the 2-D spectrum. Integrated mean direction. and many others. f p (peak frequency) area under spectrum = < 2 > H s < f > (mean frequency) 4 2 f T = 1 / f Reference to chapter 10 of part VII of IFS documentation

14 Model output: historically H s and mean wave period (T m ) in mean wave direction 10m wind speed (colour shading, arrow length and grey scale) 10m wind direction (arrow direction) on 23 March 2016, 6 UTC. Significant wave height (colour shading) Mean wave direction (arrow direction) Mean wave period (arrow length and coulour) on 23 March 2016, 6 UTC.

15 2D wave spectra are now routinely output

16 Model output: wave systems Swell systems identified using spectral partitioning of the total swell: windsea Swell 2 arrow length: wave height, arrow colour: mean wave period Swell 1 Swell3 if it exists New decomposition (set of vectors):

17 Model output: more than just wave height windsea and swell 1,2 3 plotted together. There are part of the same tensor!

18 Model output: long swell forecast Swell are long waves propagating away from storms. It is possible to follow the evolution of the swell. Define the Equivalent Wave Height:

19 Model output: long swell forecast Equivalent significant wave height of all waves with periods between 21 and 25 seconds (colour shading) Significant wave height (black contours). Forecast from 2 December 2016, 0 UTC shown every 6 hours up to t+240 hours

20 Freak waves: We are not always dealing with nice predictable waves:

21 Freak waves: Draupner freak wave Individual waves etc. H max H s = H 1/3 Individual Waves, Significant Wave Height, H s, Maximum Individual Wave Height, H max, and Freak Wave If H max > 2.2 H s freak wave event

22 Freak waves: we can do the meteorology Conditions during Draupner freak wave Atmospheric conditions Waves conditions Bidlot J. et al What conditions led to the Draupner freak wave? Newsletter 148 ECMWF. Cavaleri et al, The Draupner wave: a fresh look and the emerging view. JGR ocean

23 Freak waves: we can do the science Shallow-water version of the Freak Wave Warning System, Peter A.E.M. Janssen, ECMWF in preparation

24 Wave-sea ice interaction: a new challenge Courtesy: Wendy Pyper Courtesy: Ben Holt

25 Downscaling feasible:

26 The latest ECMWF reanalysis ERA5

27 The latest ECMWF reanalysis ERA5 in production at ECMWF for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) ERA5 Public Release Plan: 17 July 2017: Release Q3/Q4 2017: ERA5 continuous updating. ERA5: < 3 months after real time (final product). ERA5T: short delay (< 1 week, preliminary product). Q3/Q4 2017: Access to ERA5 observations from 2010 onwards. Q2 2018: Complete the release of Continue ERA5 continuous updating. Continue ERA-Interim for at least another 6 months. Q1 2019: Release Currently, public access to the data is only possible via the ECMWF WebAPI. From 2018 onwards, ERA5 will be made available via the C3S Climate Data Store (CDS).

28 The latest ECMWF reanalysis ERA5 It contains many wave parameters. Much improved with respect to ERA-Interim: Significant wave height scatter index (%) against all available in-situ data ERA-Interim ERA

29 Conclusions Wave forecast improvement over the last 20 years: impressive, yet still some work to do Wave extremes: resolution matters. Forecast of wave extremes: need for ensemble forecast. Many more output parameters than just wave height. ERA-5 very promising.

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