UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION ) )

Transcription

1 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin ) ) Dcket N. RM GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE RESEARCH WORK PLAN OF THE NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION Gerald W. Cauley President and Chief Executive Officer Mark Lauby Senir Vice President and Chief Reliability Officer Jhn Mura Directr f Reliability Assessment and System Analysis Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin 3353 Peachtree Rad, N.E. Suite 600, Nrth Twer Atlanta, GA (404) (404) facsimile Charles A. Berardesc Senir Vice President and General Cunsel Shamai Elstein Senir Cunsel Lauren A. Pertti Cunsel Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin 1325 G Street, N.W., Suite 600 Washingtn, D.C (202) (202) facsimile charles.berardesc@nerc.net shamai.elstein@nerc.net lauren.pertti@nerc.net Cunsel fr the Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin May 30, 2017

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS NOTICES AND COMMUNICATIONS... 4 BACKGROUND... 4 Order N. 830 Apprving Reliability Standard TPL The Cmmissin Directs NERC t Mdify TPL-007 and Cnduct Further GMD Research... 5 GMD RESEARCH WORK PLAN... 6 Task 1: Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event... 7 Task 2: Further Analyze Latitude Scaling... 8 Task 3: Imprve Earth Cnductivity Mdels fr GIC Studies... 9 Task 4: Study GIC Field Orientatin fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments... 9 Task 5: Further Analyze the 75 A per Phase Criterin Used fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments Task 6: Sectin 1600 Data Request Task 7: Geelectric Field Evaluatin and Calculatin Tl Task 8: Imprve Harmnics Analysis Capability Task 9: Harmnic Impact Studies NEXT STEPS CONCLUSION ATTACHMENT 1: Order N. 830 GMD Research Wrk Plan i

3 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin ) ) Dcket N. RM GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE RESEARCH WORK PLAN OF THE NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION Pursuant t paragraph 77 f the Federal Energy Regulatry Cmmissin s ( FERC r Cmmissin ) Order N. 830, 1 the Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin ( NERC ) 2 hereby submits a preliminary wrk plan t cnduct research n tpics related t gemagnetic disturbances ( GMD ) and their impacts n the reliability f the Bulk-Pwer System ( BPS ). In Order N. 830, the Cmmissin apprved Reliability Standard TPL Transmissin System Planned Perfrmance fr Gemagnetic Disturbance Events and directed NERC t, amng ther things, submit a wrk plan within six mnths f the effective date f the Final Rule describing hw NERC wuld cnduct research n the GMD-related tpics specified by the Cmmissin and any additinal tpics selected in NERC s discretin. T address the Cmmissin s directive, NERC submits a preliminary Order N. 830 GMD Research Wrk Plan ( GMD Research Wrk Plan ), attached heret as Attachment 1. NERC cllabrated with the Electric Pwer Research Institute ( EPRI ) and the industry experts n the NERC GMD Task Frce in develping the preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan. EPRI s experience and expertise in electric industry research and develpment prjects 1 Order N. 830, Reliability Standard fr Transmissin System Planned Perfrmance fr Gemagnetic Disturbance Events, 156 FERC 61,215 (2016), reh g denied, Order N. 830-A, 158 FERC 61,041 (2017) ( Order N. 830 ). 2 The Cmmissin certified NERC as the electric reliability rganizatin ( ERO ) in accrdance with Sectin 215 f the FPA n July 20, N. Am. Elec. Reliability Crp., 116 FERC 61,062 (2006). 1

4 prved invaluable in identifying apprpriate GMD research activities that build upn existing wrk t address the key GMD-related research areas specified by the Cmmissin in Order N The specific research activities identified in the plan fall within nine brad research categries, called Tasks, and are capable f prducing wrk prduct that wuld advance understanding f GMD events and the risks these high-impact, lw-frequency events pse t the reliability f the BPS. The preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan als includes the estimated csts and timeframe fr cmpleting each f the Tasks. NERC expects that executing a research plan f the type cntemplated by Order N. 830 wuld require an extensive, multi-year effrt requiring scientific and technical expertise frm a variety f disciplines. NERC des nt currently maintain the necessary scientific expertise in fields such as space weather and gelgy t cmplete these research tasks in-huse. Early estimates suggest that utsurcing the research tasks identified in the preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan t thse with the necessary expertise wuld cst a minimum f $2.7 millin. NERC expects that funding the csts f executing such a plan wuld have a substantial impact n NERC s budget and therefre its annual assessments, which ultimately flw back t the cnsumer. Further, managing a large scale research prject such as this is nt ne f NERC s cre cmpetencies. NERC recgnizes that ther rganizatins, like EPRI, already pssess the type f specialized expertise and experience necessary t effectively manage cmplex, multidisciplinary research prjects and wuld therefre be better structured fr this srt f undertaking. Therefre, NERC plans t cntinue wrk ver the next several mnths t identify an apprpriate prject administratin structure t drive cmpletin f the activities identified in the preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan in a cst-effective and efficient manner. NERC s plans 2

5 fr future wrk, which are described mre fully in Sectin IV Next Steps, include cntinued utreach with representatives frm gvernmental agencies in the U.S., Eurpe, and Canada. NERC s plans als include cntinued utreach t academia, vendrs, and industry. The purpse f this utreach is t identify pprtunities t leverage existing GMD-related wrk and research synergies, develp an apprpriate research management structure, and identify alternative surces f funding. Further, NERC plans t cnduct utreach t stakehlders regarding ptimal appraches t structure the funding requirements, t include identifying pprtunities fr sharing csts, research management alternatives, and leveraging research respnsibilities. These effrts, alng with any cmments and Cmmissin guidance received thrugh this prceeding, wuld infrm the scpe and structure f NERC s final GMD Research Wrk Plan and wuld aid in the develpment f a timetable fr submitting infrmatinal filings t the Cmmissin reprting n the results f research. NERC expects t develp additinal prject details within the next six mnths and cmmits t keep Cmmissin staff infrmed f the status f these effrts. As NERC cntinues its wrk t develp the final plan and address the resurce and lgistical challenges that lie ahead, NERC wuld welcme the Cmmissin s guidance n the priritizatin f specific Tasks, as discussed in Sectin IV belw. 3

6 NOTICES AND COMMUNICATIONS Ntices and cmmunicatins with respect t this filing may be addressed t the fllwing: 3 Shamai Elstein* Senir Cunsel Lauren A. Pertti* Cunsel Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin 1325 G Street, N.W., Suite 600 Washingtn, D.C (202) (202) facsimile shamai.elstein@nerc.net lauren.pertti@nerc.net Mark Lauby* Senir Vice President and Chief Reliability Officer Jhn Mura* Directr f Reliability Assessment and System Analysis Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin 3353 Peachtree Rad, N.E. Suite 600, Nrth Twer Atlanta, GA (404) (404) facsimile mark.lauby@nerc.net jhn.mura@nerc.net BACKGROUND Order N. 830 Apprving Reliability Standard TPL On September 22, 2016, the Cmmissin issued Order N. 830 apprving Reliability Standard TPL Transmissin System Planned Perfrmance fr Gemagnetic Disturbance Events. This standard was the secnd f tw GMD Reliability Standards develped in respnse t the Cmmissin s Order N t address the risks psed by GMD events n the reliable peratin f the BPS. Reliability Standard TPL requires wners and peratrs f the BPS t cnduct initial and nging assessments f the ptential impact f a benchmark GMD event 3 Persns t be included n the Cmmissin s service list are identified by an asterisk. NERC respectfully requests a waiver f Rule 203 f the Cmmissin s regulatins, 18 C.F.R (2016), t allw the inclusin f mre than tw persns n the service list in this prceeding. 4 Order N. 779, Reliability Standards fr Gemagnetic Disturbances, 143 FERC 61,147 (2013). The first GMD standard, Reliability Standard EOP Gemagnetic Disturbance Operatins, was apprved by the Cmmissin in Order N. 797 in 2014 and requires Reliability Crdinatrs and applicable Transmissin Operatrs t implement plans, prcesses, and prcedures t mitigate the effects f GMD events n reliable peratins. Order N. 797, Reliability Standard fr Gemagnetic Disturbance Operatins, 147 FERC 61,209, reh g denied, Order N. 797-A, 149 FERC 61,027 (2014). 4

7 n BPS equipment and the BPS as a whle, and t develp and implement plans t prtect against adverse BPS impacts resulting frm the benchmark GMD event. In Order N. 830, the Cmmissin fund that Reliability Standard TPL addressed its directives fr the secnd stage GMD Reliability Standard frm Order N. 779 and stated that the standard cnstitutes an imprtant step in addressing the risks psed by GMD events t the Bulk Pwer System. 5 While apprving the standard, the Cmmissin directed NERC t develp certain mdificatins and undertake additinal actins t further understanding f GMDs and their impacts n reliability, as summarized belw. The Cmmissin Directs NERC t Mdify TPL-007 and Cnduct Further GMD Research In Order N. 830, the Cmmissin directed NERC t: develp certain mdificatins t TPL-007-1; 6 specifically: develp revisins t the benchmark GMD event definitin s that the reference peak geelectric field amplitude is nt based slely n spatially averaged data (P 44); develp revisins t Requirement R6 t require registered entities t apply spatially averaged and nn-spatially averaged peak geelectric field values, r sme equally efficient and effective alternative, when cnducting thermal impact assessments (P 65); develp revisins t the standard t require respnsible entities t cllect gemagnetically induced current ( GIC ) mnitring and magnetmeter data as necessary t enable mdel validatin and situatinal awareness (P 88); and develp revisins t the standard t include deadlines fr the develpment and cmpletin f any required Crrective Actin Plans (PP ); research specific GMD-related tpics identified by the Cmmissin and ther tpics in NERC s discretin, in accrdance with a GMD research wrk plan filed with the Cmmissin (the research shuld be infrmed by the nging GMD 5 Order N. 830 at PP 1, The Cmmissin directed NERC t submit these mdificatins t the Cmmissin within 18 mnths f the effective date f the Final Rule, r by May Order N. 830 at P 2. The standards mdificatin directives are currently being cnsidered by the Prject Gemagnetic Disturbance Mitigatin standard drafting team. This team expects t pst the first draft f the revised TPL-007 standard in early summer

8 research effrts f gvernment agencies, academic, and ther publicly available cntributrs); 7 and cllect GMD mnitring data pursuant t Sectin 1600 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure and make that infrmatin available. 8 This filing addresses the secnd f the Cmmissin s directives t submit a wrk plan describing hw NERC plans t cnduct research n specific GMD-related tpics. The Cmmissin s directives and guidance fr wrk plan tpics, as well as hw NERC plans t address thse areas as part f its preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan, are described in Sectin III belw. NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan als includes activities t facilitate the efficient and effective cllectin f GMD mnitring data in respnse t the Cmmissin s third directive, as discussed belw. GMD RESEARCH WORK PLAN In accrdance with Order N. 830, NERC hereby submits a preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan, attached heret as Attachment 1. In this plan, NERC identifies specific research activities that are intended t derive insights int GMD-related impacts n reliability. NERC wrked cllabratively with EPRI in develping this plan and received input n specific prject activities frm the GMD Task Frce and NERC technical cmmittees. The research activities described in the preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan are gruped int nine research Tasks. Each Task has an expected deliverable, such as a technical reprt r a publicly-available mdel r tl t aid in assessing GMD risk. As sme tasks and activities are at the frefrnt f evlving science and engineering capabilities, the anticipated, expected, r desired deliverable may nt be attained n a predicted timeline, r at all. In any event, these research activities shuld be pursued t the extent they reasnably can, taking int 7 See generally Order N. 830 at P Id. at PP 89, 93. 6

9 accunt expected csts, benefits, and available resurces. This research wuld be helpful t advance understanding f GMD events and the ptential impact n the reliable peratin f the BPS. NERC cntemplates that the final deliverable fr each Task wuld be subject t technical and scientific review thrugh the NERC GMD Task Frce, 9 engaging utside researchers as necessary. In accrdance with the Cmmissin s directive, NERC wuld submit peridic infrmatinal filings t the Cmmissin reprting n the results f its research. In this sectin, NERC summarizes the nine research Tasks and hw the activities under each Task are intended t address the Cmmissin s research directives in Order N. 830 and prmte increased understanding f and effective planning against GMD-related risks. NERC als prvides an estimated timeframe fr the cmpletin f each Task based n estimates supplied by EPRI. Attachment 1 includes a list f specific research activities fr each Task, mre detailed estimates f the time necessary t cmplete each f the activities falling under each Task, and a preliminary estimate f the csts t cmplete each Task. Task 1: Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event Task 1 in NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan is t perfrm further research and analysis n the use f spatial averaging in defining the GMD events that entities use when cnducting the GMD Vulnerability Assessments required by the TPL-007 standard. Reliability Standard TPL requires entities t cnduct initial and nging assessments f the ptential impact f a defined GMD event n BPS equipment and the BPS as a whle. This defined GMD event, referred t as the benchmark GMD event in TPL-007-1, and relies upn the use f an innvative spatial averaging technique t estimate the wide area impacts f a GMD event n the 9 The NERC GMD Task Frce includes participants frm U.S. and Canadian gvernment space weather researchers, representatives frm the manufacturer and vendr cmmunity, and subject matter experts frm bth within and utside the electric pwer industry. 7

10 BPS. In Order N. 830, the Cmmissin apprved the benchmark GMD event but nted its cncern that a spatially-averaged benchmark may nt adequately accunt fr lcalized peak geelectric fields that culd ptentially affect reliable peratins. Accrdingly, the Cmmissin directed NERC t revise the benchmark s that the definitin des nt rely upn spatially averaged data. 10 In additin, the Cmmissin directed NERC, as part f the GMD research wrk plan, t further analyze the area ver which spatial averaging shuld be calculated fr stability studies, including perfrming sensitivity analyses n squares less than 500 km per side (e.g., 100 km, 200 km). 11 Bradly speaking, the research falling under Task 1 wuld cnsist f tw main cmpnents: (i) research t imprve understanding f the characteristics and spatial scales f lcalized geelectric field enhancements caused by severe GMD events; and (ii) research t determine the impacts f spatial averaging assumptins n BPS reliability. NERC estimates that this Task wuld require apprximately mnths t cmplete frm start f wrk. Task 2: Further Analyze Latitude Scaling Task 2 in NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan is t perfrm further analysis f the gemagnetic latitude scaling factrs used in the TPL-007 standard. The benchmark GMD event defined in TPL includes scaling factrs t enable entities t tailr the geelectric field t their specific lcatin fr cnducting GMD Vulnerability Assessments. These factrs are intended t accunt fr differences in the intensity f a GMD event due t gegraphical cnsideratins, such as gemagnetic latitude and lcal earth cnductivity. Finding that there are questins regarding the effects f GMDs at lwer gemagnetic latitudes, the Cmmissin 10 Order N. 830 at PP 44, Id. at P 26. 8

11 directed NERC t reexamine the gemagnetic latitude scaling factrs prvided in TPL Cnsistent with the Cmmissin s directive, NERC wuld use existing mdels and develp new mdels t extraplate frm histrical data the impacts f a large, 1-in-100 year GMD event n lwer gemagnetic latitudes under this Task. NERC estimates that this Task wuld require apprximately 24 mnths t cmplete frm start f wrk. Task 3: Imprve Earth Cnductivity Mdels fr GIC Studies Task 3 f NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan is t perfrm further research t imprve the accuracy and efficacy f the earth cnductivity mdels used fr GIC studies. In Order N. 830, the Cmmissin expressed cncerns regarding the grund cnductivity mdels that frm the basis fr the earth cnductivity scaling factrs used in TPL and directed NERC t study this issue as part f its GMD research wrk plan. 13 Accrdingly, NERC s preliminary plan identifies research activities t address the Cmmissin s specific cncerns, including cmparing the accuracy f GIC calculatins derived frm available 1D mdels with 3D mdels that have recently been develped fr sme areas f the U.S. and examining mdeling t accunt fr the s-called castal effects. NERC estimates that this Task wuld require apprximately mnths t cmplete frm start f wrk. Task 4: Study GIC Field Orientatin fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments Task 4 f NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan is fcused n perfrming analysis t evaluate the ability f GIC flw calculated as specified in TPL-007 t represent wrst-case transfrmer ht-spt heating cnditins. Reliability Standard TPL was designed t identify transfrmers that are ptentially at risk frm GIC flws experienced during a 12 Id. at P See id. at PP

12 severe GMD event. Requirement R6 f the standard requires wners f applicable transfrmers t perfrm transfrmer thermal impact assessments f transfrmers where the maximum effective GIC value fr the benchmark GMD event, as prvided in Requirement R5.1, is 75 A per phase r greater. The results f these assessments are then shared s they may be incrprated int the verall GMD Vulnerability Assessment and any necessary Crrective Actin Plan. As described in NERC s Screening Criterin fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessment White Paper, this threshld was chsen because transfrmers with an effective GIC f less than 75 A per phase during the benchmark GMD event are unlikely t exceed knwn temperature limits established by technical rganizatins. 14 In Order N. 830, the Cmmissin directed NERC t perfrm additinal research related t the transfrmer thermal impact assessments required by the TPL-007 standard. Specifically, the Cmmissin directed NERC t study, as part f its GMD research wrk plan, hw the geelectric field time series can be applied t a particular transfrmer s that the rientatin f the time series, ver time, will maximize GIC flw in the transfrmer Task 4 wuld therefre cnsist f wrk t determine hw the benchmark geelectric field wave shape can be applied t a particular transfrmer t determine wrst-case htspt heating. NERC estimates that this Task wuld require apprximately mnths t cmplete frm start f wrk. Task 5: Further Analyze the 75 A per Phase Criterin Used fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments Task 5 f NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan is t cnduct additinal research and analysis t assess the transfrmer thermal impact f the benchmark GMD event r ther 14 The Screening Criterin fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessment white paper was filed in this prceeding n January 21, 2015 with NERC s petitin fr apprval f TPL NERC filed a crrected versin f this white paper n June 28, Order N. 830 at P

13 realistic GMD events. This Task is intended t address the Cmmissin s directive t include further analysis f the thermal impact assessment qualifying threshld f 75 A per phase and t address the effects f harmnics, including tertiary winding harmnic heating and any ther effects n transfrmers in NERC s GMD research wrk plan. 16 NERC estimates that this Task wuld require 24 mnths t cmplete frm start f wrk. Task 6: Sectin 1600 Data Request As nted in the Backgrund sectin f this filing, the Cmmissin issued tw sets f directives in Order N. 830 in additin t the directives t cnduct GMD research. First, the Cmmissin directed NERC t revise Reliability Standard TPL t, amng ther things, require the cllectin f GIC mnitring and magnetmeter data as necessary t enable mdel validatin and situatinal awareness, including frm any devices that must be added t meet this need. 17 Secnd, the Cmmissin directed NERC t cllect GMD mnitring data pursuant t its authrity under Sectin 1600 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure fr the perid beginning May 2013, including data existing as f that date and new data ging frward, and t make that infrmatin available. 18 Effrts are currently underway thrugh Prject Gemagnetic Disturbance Mitigatin t address the Cmmissin s directive t revise the TPL-007 standard t require the cllectin f GIC and magnetmeter data. Task 6 f NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan wuld build upn the wrk f the Prject standard drafting team t develp the necessary guidance and technical guidelines t supprt a request fr data r infrmatin under 16 Id. at PP Id. at P Id. at P

14 Sectin 1600 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure. 19 In additin, this Task cntains activities t identify and develp the infrmatin technlgy system(s) t supprt data cllectin, hsting, and access. NERC estimates that the activities f this Task, which fcus n laying the grundwrk fr the Sectin 1600 request fr data r infrmatin, wuld require apprximately 12 mnths t cmplete frm start f wrk. Fllwing the cmpletin f this Task, NERC wuld then prceed with the psting and apprval prcess set frth in Sectin 1600 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure. 20 NERC plans t cnduct utreach thrugh the NERC GMD Task Frce t determine the degree t which industry is fllwing NERC s guidance and t identify whether and t what extent additinal guidance r supprt is necessary. The eventual gal is t maintain a high-quality cllectin f GIC and magnetmeter data fr industry and research use. Task 7: Geelectric Field Evaluatin and Calculatin Tl Task 7 f NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan builds upn the ther items in NERC s plan and is intended t imprve scientific understanding and advance the mdels and tls available fr mdeling GIC. Task 7 wuld invlve evaluating available tls fr calculating geelectric field frm magnetic field data fr a given earth cnductivity structure and develping additinal tls as necessary t meet the needs f the industry. This task wuld include wrk t address whether additinal realistic time series shuld be selected t perfrm assessments in rder t capture the time series that prduces the mst vulnerability fr an area, cnsistent with 19 NERC s rules require that each prpsed request fr data r infrmatin include certain infrmatin, such as the data t be cllected and hw it will be used, hw the data will be validated, wh is bligated t respnd, the due date, a descriptin f restrictins n disseminatin, and an estimate f the relative burden t respnd t the request. See NERC Rules f Prcedure 1602, 20 NERC s rules require that the draft request be submitted t the Office f Electric Reliability fr infrmatinal purpses and be psted fr a 45-day public cmment perid prir t being submitted t the NERC Bard f Trustees fr apprval. See id. 12

15 the Cmmissin s guidance. 21 NERC estimates this Task wuld require apprximately mnths t cmplete frm start f wrk. Task 8: Imprve Harmnics Analysis Capability Task 8 f NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan wuld fcus n develping guidelines fr harmnics analysis and develping tls fr entities t use in perfrming systemwide assessment f GMD-related harmnics. The wrk under this Task wuld build upn the wrk in Task 5 and is intended t address the Cmmissin s directive t address the effects f harmnics in NERC s GMD research wrk plan. 22 The effects f GMD-related harmnics n reliable peratins are nly beginning t be understd. Harmnics culd cause prtectin system misperatins, result in damage t capacitr banks and ther electrical equipment, r affect the perating temperature f transfrmers. The develpment f tls and accurate mdels wuld aid in understanding these ptential effects and hw they may best be mitigated. NERC estimates this Task wuld require apprximately mnths t cmplete frm start f wrk. Task 9: Harmnic Impact Studies Task 9 f NERC s preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan is intended t further understanding f the ther effects f harmnics, including vibratinal effects, n pwer system equipment such as transfrmers and generatrs. This Task cntemplates testing f tw transfrmers, ne with n vibratin issues and ne with vibratin issues. This wrk shuld 21 See Order N. 830 at P 79, in which the Cmmissin stated: In additin, the large variances described by [United States Gelgical Survey] in actual 3-D grund cnductivity data raise the questin f whether ne time series gemagnetic field is sufficient fr vulnerability assessments. The characteristics, including frequencies, f the time series interact with the grund cnductivity t prduce the geelectric field that drives the GIC. Therefre, the research shuld address whether additinal realistic time series shuld be selected t perfrm assessments in rder t capture the time series that prduces the mst vulnerability fr an area. 22 See id. at P 68 and supra Sectin III.E. 13

16 identify what, if any, future actins and research activities are needed t effectively mitigate identified risks. NERC estimates this Task wuld require apprximately 24 mnths t cmplete frm start f wrk. NEXT STEPS Since the issuance f Order N. 830, NERC has wrked diligently t address the Cmmissin s GMD research directives by cllabrating with EPRI, the NERC GMD Task Frce, and the NERC technical cmmittees t develp the preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan described in this filing. The preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan addresses each f the GMD-related research areas identified by the Cmmissin in Order N. 830 with a specific and targeted set f GMD research activities that are at the frefrnt f GMD research. The preliminary plan prvides a slid framewrk fr imprving understanding f the threats psed by GMDs and hw they may be addressed effectively. With the scientific and technical cmpnents f the plan nw in place, NERC plans t shift its fcus tward develping the administrative cmpnents f the plan. This includes develping the apprpriate prject administratin and funding structures t supprt the cmpletin f GMD research. NERC expects that this wrk, which is described belw, will take apprximately six mnths t cmplete. NERC cmmits t keep Cmmissin staff apprised f the status f its effrts. As the ERO, NERC pssesses extensive expertise and experience in matters affecting the reliability f the Nrth American BPS. As nted earlier in this filing, hwever, NERC des nt currently pssess the necessary scientific expertise t cnduct the described GMD research activities in-huse, nr des it cunt amng its cre cmpetencies the ability t manage such a large and cmplex GMD research undertaking. T satisfy the Cmmissin s directive, NERC wuld want t wrk with rganizatins that d pssess the type f specialized scientific, 14

17 technical, and research prject management knwledge and experience necessary t successfully manage and execute such a prject. Therefre, ver the next several mnths, NERC plans t cntinue wrk t identify pprtunities t incrprate the cntributins and leadership f utside rganizatins int the verall prject plan. NERC plans t cntinue discussins with EPRI, which has prvided key cntributins and leadership t the develpment f the plan t date. NERC als plans t cntinue utreach with: (i) representatives frm gvernmental agencies in the U.S., Eurpe, and Canada, such as the U.S. Gelgical Survey, Natinal Aernautics and Space Administratin, the U.S. Department f Energy, the Natinal Oceanic and Atmspheric Administratin, the Natinal Science Fundatin, and Natural Resurces Canada; (ii) researchers in academia, such as Oregn State University; (iii) vendrs; and (iv) industry. The purpse f this utreach is t identify pprtunities t build n existing GMD research wrk, identify pprtunities fr research synergies, develp an apprpriate research management structure, and identify alternative surces f funding. In additin, NERC plans t cnduct utreach with stakehlders t explre appraches fr structuring the funding requirements f the plan, including identifying pprtunities fr sharing csts, research management alternatives, and leveraging research respnsibilities. NERC expects that these effrts, as well as the cmments and Cmmissin guidance received thrugh this prceeding, wuld infrm the scpe and structure f NERC s final GMD Research Wrk Plan and NERC s funding respnsibilities. Given these uncertainties, NERC has nt included csts related t GMD research activities in its draft 2018 Business Plan and Budget. 23 Depending n the timing f the start f wrk, final prject structure, and the extent f 23 Final prject funding requirements wuld be subject t apprval thrugh NERC s budget prcess. NERC s budget prcess is set frth in Sectin 1100 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure. The draft 2018 Business Plan and Budget is available at: Budget.aspx. 15

18 NERC s funding respnsibilities, NERC may need t prepare and seek apprval fr a supplemental GMD research budget that culd include a request fr a special assessment. Lking ahead, NERC appreciates the Cmmissin s willingness t be flexible regarding changes t the specific prject tasks and timelines set frth in this filing as it wrks t develp the final plan. 24 NERC recgnizes the imprtance f ensuring that wrk remains perfrmed in a timely manner, but asks that the Cmmissin recgnize that this is a significant expansin f NERC s rle and wuld require a substantial investment f time and csts. NERC may ultimately face resurce cnstraints that limit its ability t ensure cmpletin f the Tasks in the timeframe cntemplated by the preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan. Fr example, NERC may be unable t btain adequate funding fr GMD research in a given year due t ther pressing reliability needs, r it may encunter issues lcating research partners that bth pssess the necessary expertise and are available t assist in a given timeframe. NERC wuld therefre welcme guidance frm the Cmmissin regarding the priritizatin f the specific research activities directed in Order N If faced with resurce cnstraints, NERC wuld plan t priritize the cmpletin f Tasks t imprve the alpha and beta factrs used in the TPL-007 benchmark GMD event; specifically, Task 1 (Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event) and Task 3 (Imprve Earth Cnductivity Mdels fr GIC Studies). NERC wuld welcme the Cmmissin s feedback n this priritizatin. In additin, NERC wuld welcme any guidance frm the Cmmissin n which research activities shuld be assigned a lwer pririty r whse cmpletin be made cntingent n resurce availability (e.g., availability f utside funding). This infrmatin wuld be 24 See Order N. 830 at P

19 particularly helpful t NERC as it cntinues its wrk t develp the final plan and address the challenges that lay ahead. CONCLUSION NERC respectfully requests that the Cmmissin accept this filing in accrdance with its directive frm Order N May 30, 2017 Respectfully submitted, /s/ Lauren A. Pertti Charles A. Berardesc Senir Vice President and General Cunsel Shamai Elstein Senir Cunsel Lauren A. Pertti Cunsel Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin 1325 G Street, N.W., Suite 600 Washingtn, D.C (202) (202) facsimile charles.berardesc@nerc.net shamai.elstein@nerc.net lauren.pertti@nerc.net Cunsel fr the Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin 17

20 CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I hereby certify that I have served a cpy f the freging dcument upn all parties listed n the fficial service list cmpiled by the Secretary in the abve-referenced prceeding. Dated at Washingtn, D.C. this 30 th day f May, /s/ Lauren A. Pertti Lauren A. Pertti Cunsel fr Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin

21 Attachment 1

22 Order N. 830 GMD Research Wrk Plan Addressing Gemagnetic Disturbance Events and Impacts n Reliability PRELIMINARY PLAN May 2017 NERC Reprt Title Reprt Date I

23 Table f Cntents Preface... iv Intrductin... v Backgrund... v Task 1: Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event...1 Summary...1 Activities...1 Task 1A: Perfrm Research t Imprve Understanding f Characteristics and Spatial Scales f Lcalized Geelectric Field Enhancements Caused by Severe GMD Events...1 Task 1B: Determine the Impacts f Spatial Averaging Assumptins n the Bulk-Pwer System (BPS)...3 Expected Deliverable...4 Estimated Time fr Cmpletin...4 Task 2: Further Analyze Latitude Scaling...5 Summary...5 Activities...5 Expected Deliverable...6 Estimated Time fr Cmpletin...6 Task 3: Imprve Earth Cnductivity Mdels fr GIC Studies...7 Summary...7 Activities...7 Task 3A: Use Magnettelluric Measurement Data t Validate/Imprve Existing Earth Cnductivity Mdels Available t Industry and Researchers...7 Task 3B: Develp Guidance fr Validatin f GIC Mdels...7 Task 3C: Nn-unifrm Field Mdeling...8 Expected Deliverable...9 Estimated Time fr Cmpletin...9 Task 4: Study GIC Field Orientatin fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments Summary Activities Expected Deliverable Estimated Time fr Cmpletin Task 5: Further Analyze the 75 A per Phase Criterin Used fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments Summary Activities Expected Deliverable NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May 2017 ii

24 Table f Cntents Estimated Time fr Cmpletin Task 6: Sectin 1600 Data Request Summary Activities Expected Deliverables Estimated Time fr Cmpletin Task 7: Geelectric Field Evaluatin and Calculatin Tl Summary Activities Expected Deliverables Estimated Time fr Cmpletin Task 8: Imprve Harmnics Analysis Capability Summary Activities Expected Deliverables Estimated Time fr Cmpletin Task 9: Harmnic Impact Studies Summary Activities Expected Deliverable Estimated Time fr Cmpletin Estimated Prject Csts Prject Schedule Example Next Steps NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May 2017 iii

25 Preface The Nrth American Electric Reliability Crpratin (NERC) is a nt-fr-prfit internatinal regulatry authrity whse missin is t assure the reliability and security f the bulk pwer system (BPS) in Nrth America. NERC develps and enfrces Reliability Standards; annually assesses seasnal and lng term reliability; mnitrs the BPS thrugh system awareness; and educates, trains, and certifies industry persnnel. NERC s area f respnsibility spans the cntinental United States, Canada, and the nrthern prtin f Baja Califrnia, Mexic. NERC is the Electric Reliability Organizatin (ERO) fr Nrth America, subject t versight by the Federal Energy Regulatry Cmmissin (FERC) and gvernmental authrities in Canada. NERC s jurisdictin includes users, wners, and peratrs f the BPS, which serves mre than 334 millin peple. The Nrth American BPS is divided int eight Reginal Entity (RE) bundaries as shwn in the map and crrespnding table belw. The Nrth American BPS is divided int eight RE bundaries. The highlighted areas dente verlap as sme lad-serving entities participate in ne Regin while assciated transmissin wners/peratrs participate in anther. FRCC MRO NPCC RF SERC SPP RE Texas RE WECC Flrida Reliability Crdinating Cuncil Midwest Reliability Organizatin Nrtheast Pwer Crdinating Cuncil ReliabilityFirst SERC Reliability Crpratin Suthwest Pwer Pl Reginal Entity Texas Reliability Entity Western Electricity Crdinating Cuncil NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May 2017 iv

26 Intrductin Backgrund In Order N. 779, 1 FERC directed the develpment f Reliability Standards in tw stages t address the ptential impacts f gemagnetic disturbance (GMD) events n the reliability f the BPS. The first stage Reliability Standard, EOP (Gemagnetic Disturbance Operatins), requires wners and peratrs f the BPS t develp and implement peratinal prcedures t mitigate the effects f GMDs cnsistent with the reliable peratin f the BPS. This standard was apprved by FERC in The secnd stage Reliability Standard, TPL (Transmissin System Planned Perfrmance fr Gemagnetic Disturbance Events), requires wners and peratrs f the BPS t cnduct initial and nging assessments f the ptential impact f a defined benchmark GMD event n BPS equipment and the BPS as a whle. FERC apprved Reliability Standard TPL in Order N. 830, issued n September 22, FERC, hwever, directed NERC t develp certain mdificatins t the standard and undertake additinal actins t further understanding f GMDs and their ptential impacts n reliability. Specifically, FERC directed NERC t: develp certain mdificatins t TPL-007-1, including: (i) revising the benchmark GMD event t nt rely slely n spatially-averaged data; (ii) revising the standard t require entities t cllect gemagnetically induced current (GIC) mnitring and magnetmeter data as necessary t enable mdel validatin and situatinal awareness; and (iii) revising the standard t include deadlines fr the develpment and cmpletin f any required Crrective Actin Plans; 4 research specific GMD-related tpics identified by the Cmmissin and ther tpics in NERC s discretin, in accrdance with a GMD research wrk plan filed with the Cmmissin; 5 and cllect GMD mnitring data pursuant t Sectin 1600 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure and make that infrmatin available. 6 This dcument addresses the secnd and third directives listed abve. It sets frth a plan fr driving research int the specific areas f GMD-related cncern identified by the Cmmissin and develping the framewrk t supprt a request fr infrmatin under Sectin 1600 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure. This preliminary wrk plan cnsists f the fllwing nine research Tasks : 1. Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event 2. Further Analyze Latitude Scaling 3. Imprve Earth Cnductivity Mdels fr GIC Studies 4. Study GIC Field Orientatin fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments 5. Further Analyze the 75 A per Phase Criterin Used fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments 6. Sectin 1600 Data Request 1 Order N. 779, Reliability Standards fr Gemagnetic Disturbances, 143 FERC 61,147 (2013). 2 Order N. 797, Reliability Standard fr Gemagnetic Disturbance Operatins, 147 FERC 61,209, reh g denied, Order N. 797-A, 149 FERC 61,027 (2014). 3 Order N. 830, Reliability Standard fr Transmissin System Planned Perfrmance fr Gemagnetic Disturbance Events, 156 FERC 61,215 (2016), reh g denied, Order N. 830-A, 158 FERC 61,041 (2017). 4 See Order N. 830 at PP 44, 65, 88, and See generally id. at P Id. at PP 89, 93. NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May 2017 v

27 Intrductin 7. Geelectric Field Evaluatin and Calculatin Tl 8. Imprve Harmnics Analysis Capability 9. Harmnic Impact Studies Specific research activities and estimated cmpletin timeframes fr each f these Tasks are identified in the subsequent sectins f this wrk plan. NERC cllabrated with the Electric Pwer Research Institute (EPRI) t develp the specific research activities in this preliminary plan. EPRI is a nnprfit crpratin rganized under the laws f the District f Clumbia Nnprfit Crpratin Act and recgnized as a tax exempt rganizatin under Sectin 501(c)(3) f the U.S. Internal Revenue Cde f 1986, as amended. EPRI was established in 1972 and has principal ffices and labratries lcated in Pal Alt, Califrnia; Charltte, Nrth Carlina; Knxville, Tennessee; and Lenx, Massachusetts. EPRI cnducts research and develpment relating t the generatin, delivery, and use f electricity fr the benefit f the public. An independent, nnprfit rganizatin, EPRI brings tgether its scientists and engineers as well as experts frm academia and industry t help address challenges in electricity, including reliability, efficiency, health, safety, and the envirnment. NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May 2017 vi

28 Task 1: Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event Summary The research activities under this Task cnsist f perfrming further research and analysis n the use f spatial averaging in defining benchmark GMD events that entities use when cnducting the GMD Vulnerability Assessments required by the TPL-007 standard. Activities Task 1A: Perfrm Research t Imprve Understanding f Characteristics and Spatial Scales f Lcalized Geelectric Field Enhancements Caused by Severe GMD Events The analysis includes detectin f a large number (10-20) f lcalized extreme events and cllectin f bth grund-based and space-based data arund the times f the events. The grund-based and space-based data will be cmbined t build a cmprehensive view f the slar wind-magnetsphere-insphere dynamic cnditins at the times f the events. The cmbined data will prvide specificatin f the gespatial prcesses assciated with the enhancements. Special attentin will be paid t understand the pssible assciatin between lcalized enhancements and magnetspheric substrms. The research team will cllabrate with internatinal leading experts (residing at NASA Gddard Space Flight Center) n substrms t imprve understanding f which substrm-prcesses can lead t extreme lcalizatin f gemagnetic field bservatins n the grund. These assessments will allw better characterizatin f bth spatial and tempral characteristics as well as lcal time and gemagnetic latitude distributin f the lcalized gemagnetic field enhancements. The new results will be reprted and reviewed via a peer-reviewed publicatin and included in the technical reprt. Review technical basis f the NERC Benchmark GMD Event Descriptin white paper (May 2016) 7 including supprting peer-reviewed papers. The NERC Benchmark GMD Event Descriptin white paper will be reviewed in the light f the latest scientific research n the extreme GMD events. The review will include assessment f bth gelgical wrk in terms f grund cnductivity analyses and gespatial analyses characterizing the external drivers f extreme GMD events. Based n the review, recmmendatins will be made fr pssible mdificatin f the benchmark GMD event. The review will be dcumented and included in the technical reprt. Perfrm analysis f magnetmeter data t characterize the spatial structure f GMD events. Step 1 - Develp dataset fr large GMD events acrss all available magnetmeter statins and reslve differences in tempral reslutin and data gaps. The purpse f this effrt is t assemble a cmprehensive data set t supprt GMD analyses. Ideally, such a data set wuld feature high-time reslutin data (10 s r better) with rigrus errr crrectin and backgrund remval. This task is necessary because existing cmmunity-wide effrts that serve gemagnetic data need t be imprved upn t meet all f the abve criteria. Specifically, ne gemagnetic 7 Benchmark Gemagnetic Disturbance Event Descriptin, NERC Prject GMD Mitigatin Standard Drafting Team (May 12, 2016), NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

29 Task 1: Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event data set prvides errr crrectin and backgrund remval, but it prvides data at t lw f time reslutin (60 s, with high-reslutin data dwn sampled); and anther gemagnetic data set prvides data at its riginal time reslutin, but it perfrms minimal errr crrectin and n backgrund remval. Mrever, existing cllectins are nt cmprehensive, and histrical data frm nw defunct magnetmeters is frequently absent. These additinal data surces will be incrprated in the cmpilatin whenever pssible, cnditining and prcessing the data as necessary. The newly develped database and derived prducts, including prcessed and crrected time series and applicatin prgramming interface (API) fr apprpriate sftware packages (e.g., MATLAB) and cmputer languages (e.g., Pythn), will be made available and dcumented in the technical reprt. Step 2 - Explre scaling f maximum E-field versus magnetic time f day. The purpse f this effrt is t characterize and quantify hw the severity f GMD events depends n the magnetic time f day (MTOD). The data used in this study will be derived frm the database cmpiled in the previus step. Magnetic fields will be cnverted t geelectric fields using magnettelluric methds (based n 1D cnductivity prfiles, cmparing results t thse frm 2D impedance matrices when available). Geelectric field values will be prcessed in tw different ways: 1) data frm individual magnetmeter sites will be analyzed using extreme value thery and the results f thse studies will be binned by MTOD; and 2) data frm all magnetmeter sites will be binned by MTOD and extreme value analysis will be applied t the aggregate data set. The predictins f these cmplementary analyses will prvide bth a cnsistency check and an uncertainty estimate. The results f the extreme value analysis will be used t develp a new statistical mdel f hw geelectric field magnitudes vary with MTOD. Because lngitudinal data cverage is frequently very sparse, this mdel will allw fr better applicatin f latitudinal scaling when nearby reference measurements are unavailable. Results frm this wrk will be presented in a technical reprt describing a new MTOD scaling, analgus t the existing latitudinal scaling, alng with a technical descriptin f analysis methds. Step 3 - Cmpute the spatitempral autcrrelatin in db/dt and determine the characteristic time and length scales fr variatins in db/dt. The purpse f this wrk is t imprve understanding f the extent t which lcalizatin (in space and time) affects the ability t predict gemagnetic fields at sites where measurements are unavailable. Data fr this research effrt will be btained frm the database cmpiled in a previus step. Using this data, the relatinship between db/dt and its individual frequency cmpnents at different spatial lcatins will be characterized. Crrelatins between time, frequency, magnetic latitude, and MTOD using bth pairwise crrelatins and multivariate appraches such as multiple regressin analysis will be investigated. Ultimately, this research will determine the apprpriate spatial and tempral crrelatin parameters t infrm Markv chain mdels f gemagnetic fields, which frm the basis fr develping a mre sphisticated representatin f the spatitempral behavir f ge-electric fields t better infrm pwer systems GIC analysis. The deliverable f this research will be a reprt (included in the technical reprt) describing the spatial and tempral scales (i.e., distances and duratins) affected by GMDs as a functin f gemagnetic latitude, MTOD, and frequency. NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

30 Task 1: Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event Step 4 - Develp Markv chain mdels fr generating spatitempral behavir f defined GMD events. The purpse f this wrk is t develp a tl fr building credible mdels f extreme GMD events based n histrical data. Data frm the database develped in Step 1 will be used t develp a Markv chain mdel that ingests data frm histrical events and prduces new scenaris, which are cnsistent with the statistics f the riginal events. Ensembles f these synthetic events can be used t assess the ptential vulnerability f systems t different spatial and tempral distributins f statistically identical GMDs, prviding a means t credibly quantify the range f ptential system effects due t disturbances f a given severity. A prduct f this prpsed research will be a sftware-based tl fr scenari generatin with APIs fr apprpriate sftware packages (e.g., MATLAB) and prgramming languages (e.g., Pythn), alng with a detailed reprt describing the mdeling techniques and sftware interfaces. This reprt will be included in the technical reprt. Perfrm magnethydrdynamic (MHD) simulatins and ther analysis t imprve understanding f lcalized geelectric field enhancements. The research will build n the simulatins carried ut by Ngwira, et al. (2013; 2014) 8,9. New simulatins will be carried ut t study gespatial dynamics specifically assciated with the lcalized gemagnetic field enhancements. Targeting f the lcalized enhancements will necessitate high spatitempral reslutin simulatins with careful attentin t magnettail dynamics, which are currently thught t be the gespatial rigin f the lcalizatin seen n the grund. High-reslutin simulatins and assciated prcesses in the magnettail will be mapped int the insphere t lk fr signature that ultimately cause the lcalized magnetic field perturbatins n the grund. The new results will be reprted and reviewed via a peer-reviewed publicatin (and included in the technical reprt). Task 1B: Determine the Impacts f Spatial Averaging Assumptins n the Bulk-Pwer System (BPS) Perfrm GIC, transfrmer thermal assessment and pwer flw analysis f Nrth American regins t determine the effects f spatial scales f lcalized geelectric field enhancements (e.g., 100 km x 100 km, 200 km x 200 km). This task is t further analyze the area ver which spatial averaging shuld be used in stability studies and transfrmer thermal assessments by perfrming GIC analysis n squares less than 500 km per side (e.g., 100 km, 200 km) and using the results t perfrm pwer flw and transfrmer thermal assessments. This task will include the results frm Task 1A t determine the enhanced electric field strength levels t be included in the lcalized geelectric field enhancements. A sliding windw f varying areas (squares less than 500 km per side e.g., 100 km, 200 km per FERC Order N. 830) will be used ver a mdel f the bulk pwer system t mdel the lcalized geelectric field enhancements. This analysis will be cnducted in a cmmercially available sftware package that is cmmnly used in the industry t study GIC flws in the bulk pwer system. 8 C. Ngwira et al., Simulatin f the 23 July 2012 Extreme Space Weather Event: What if This Extremely Rare CME was Earth Directed?, 11 SPACE WEATHER 671 (2013). 9 C.M. Ngwira et al., Mdeling Extreme Carringtn-type Space Weather Events using Three-dimensinal Glbal MHD Simulatins, 119 J. OF GEOPHYSICAL RES.: SPACE PHYSICS 4472 (2014). NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

31 Task 1: Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event Using the calculated GIC values, perfrm transfrmer thermal assessment f Nrth American regins t determine the effects f scales f lcalized geelectric field enhancements. The thermal impact assessment will be based n published infrmatin 10,11 and dcumented accrdingly. Using the calculated GIC values, perfrm a pwer flw (vltage stability) assessment f Nrth American regins t determine effects f scales f lcalized geelectric field enhancements (e.g., 100 km x 100 km, 200 km x 200 km). The results f this study will prvide guidance t entities n applying spatially averaged and nnspatially averaged peak geelectric field values, r sme equally efficient and effective alternative, when cnducting thermal impact assessments and pwer flw analysis. This guidance will be dcumented in the technical reprt. Expected Deliverable Technical Reprt Estimated Time fr Cmpletin mnths frm start f wrk 10 See, e.g., IEEE, Guide fr Establishing Pwer Transfrmer Capability While Under Gemagnetic Disturbances, IEEE Standard C and EPRI, Magnethydrdynamic Electrmagnetic Pulse Assessment f the Cntinental U.S. Electric Grid: Gemagnetically Induced Current and Transfrmer Thermal Analysis (2017) Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessment white paper, NERC Prject Gemagnetic Disturbance Mitigatin (May 2016), NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

32 Task 2: Further Analyze Latitude Scaling Summary The research activities under this Task include evaluating the latitude scaling factrs in Reliability Standard TPL , including using existing mdels and develping new mdels t extraplate, frm histrical data, the ptential scaling f a severe, 1-in-100 year event n lwer gemagnetic latitudes. Activities Perfrm review f peer-reviewed research (updated since the publicatin f the Benchmark GMD Event Descriptin white paper) regarding the effects f gemagnetic latitude n geelectric fields (based n a reference earth mdel). This task will include an in-depth review f the newly-published wrk (e.g., by United States Gelgical Survey (USGS) and Ls Alams Natinal Labratry (LANL)), n gemagnetic latitude scaling. The review will include discussins with the researchers that published the wrks t find ut if mdificatins are needed t the scaling factrs in the Reliability Standard TPL This review will include recmmendatins fr further actins and will be dcumented in the technical reprt. Determine which space weather indices are mst effective in predicting latitude scaling f the maximum lcal geelectric fields using current methds fr cnditining magnetmeter statistics. Extraplate scaling t different benchmark event magnitudes. The purpse f this wrk is t determine the best space weather index r cmbinatin f indices fr predicting hw maximum geelectric fields scale with magnetic latitude. Grund-based magnetic field data fr this investigatin will be btained frm the database described in Step 1 f Task 1A: Further Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in the Benchmark GMD Event. Gemagnetic indices will be btained frm apprpriate data prviders, including the United States Gelgical Survey, the Natinal Center fr Envirnment Infrmatin, and the Wrld Data Centers fr Gemagnetism. This activity will use suitably-prcessed magnetmeter data t estimate parameters f the latitudinal electric field prfiles, and methds such as multiple regressin analysis will be used t determine what index r cmbinatin(s) f indices mst effectively predicts the latitudinal distributin f geelectric fields. A prduct f this research will be a reprt describing mdels, which are able t prvide credible estimates f the geelectric field prfile alng with a quantificatin f these mdels uncertainties and an assessment f their ptential ability t be used in an peratinal r predictive manner. This will be dcumented in the technical reprt. Perfrm analysis t prvide additinal technical supprt fr existing latitude scaling factrs r prpse new values, as apprpriate. Understanding that n new bservatins f gemagnetic field variatins are available fr investigating the latitude scaling, state-f-the-art gespatial simulatins can be used as a physics-based tl t investigate the prcesses that cntrl the evlutin f the aurral bundaries (i.e., the latitude scaling). This task will include simulatins with the latest updated mdels residing in the Cmmunity Crdinated Mdeling Center (CCMC) t investigate the prcesses that cntrl the prpagatin f the aurral bundaries tward mre suthern lcatins. The simulatins will be cnducted systematically using mre extreme slar wind cnditins as the driver and the respnse f the aurral bundaries will be recrded and investigated. NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

33 Task 2: Further Analyze Latitude Scaling A prduct f this research will be an establishment f the theretical maximum limit fr the aurral val t expansin tward suthern lcatins. Theretical results will be analyzed in the bservatinsbased latitude-scaling cntext t check if the tw appraches (existing scaling factr and the new prpsed scaling factr) cnverge tward the same scaling behavir. The new results will be reprted and evaluated via peer-reviewed publicatin and included in the final technical reprt. Expected Deliverable Technical Reprt Estimated Time fr Cmpletin 24 mnths frm start f wrk NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

34 Task 3: Imprve Earth Cnductivity Mdels fr GIC Studies Summary The research activities under this Task cnsist f activities t imprve the accuracy f existing earth cnductivity mdels fr GIC studies (TPL-007 beta scaling factr). Activities Task 3A: Use Magnettelluric Measurement Data t Validate/Imprve Existing Earth Cnductivity Mdels Available t Industry and Researchers Cmpare the accuracy f 1D-earth cnductivity mdels t 3D-earth cnductivity mdels. The gal f this activity is t cmpare electric fields derived frm 1D earth cnductivity mdels t thse btained frm 3D Electrmagnetic Transfer Functins (EMTFs). 12 In this activity, the 3D respnse will be used as the grund truth, representing the realistic earth respnse t a gemagnetic strm. Wrk includes evaluating the ability f the 1D mdel t represent the average respnse ver a given physigraphic regin t determine where 3D mdels are necessary and t validate the 1D mdel s effectiveness fr GIC estimatin. The fllwing steps will be perfrmed: Step 1 - Cmpare the electric field respnse ver each physigraphic regin using bth 1D and 3D mdels fr the extreme event scenari, where 3D data exist. Using the peak electric field metric, the 1D electric field t the average 3D respnse ver the same regin will be cmpared. This will be repeated fr large histrical events if time allws. Step 2 - Identify regins where the 1D assumptins break dwn by using the differences in field rientatin between 1D and 3D results. Als, identify 3D regins that may be t small in spatial extent t impact the average respnse ver a larger regin. Cnsider differences between 1D and 3D fr the entire spectral respnse, as well as peak intensity. Step 3 - Using the results btained in Step 1; mdify the 1D mdels as required t make them mre accurately reflect the average 3D respnse. In sme areas, sub-regins may be identified, and new r effective 1D mdels prduced. Because these changes are frequency-sensitive, validatin with ther histrical events will be needed. The fllwing will be prvided in the technical reprt as a result f this research task: A NERC perating area map f the differences between the 3D EMTF and the 1D electric field respnse fr the extreme event scenari (intensity and directin). Mdified 1D mdels fr all physigraphic regins where changes are deemed necessary. A NERC perating area map identifying regins f 1D and 3D validity, based n ptential fr geelectric field rtatin. Task 3B: Develp Guidance fr Validatin f GIC Mdels Develp techniques and guidelines fr using GIC and magnetmeter data t perfrm mdel validatin. When perfrming a GMD analysis, it is typical t calculate an estimated GIC and cmpare t a measured GIC. This cnnects the surce (gemagnetic field) with the respnse (induced current). There is the ptential fr large surces f errr in several steps f this prcess: magnetic field input, earth cnductivity mdels, dc system mdels, and the GIC data itself. The gal fr this activity is t 12 Fr example, SPUD EMTF IRIS, NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

35 Task 3: Imprve Earth Cnductivity Mdels fr GIC Studies prvide guidance fr identifying and reducing these surces f errr. The fllwing steps will be perfrmed: Step 1 - Evaluate GIC data sets t determine best practices fr time cadence, data quality and archiving techniques. Step 2 - Assess the impact f magnetmeter distance by calculating the electric field at a surce lcatin and crrelating with the GIC respnse at increasing distances. Imprve this by estimating GIC respnse using a realistic system mdel, if available. Step 3 - Test the assumptins by degrading the magnetmeter signal and using different values f cnductivity frm the errr range. The fllwing will be prvided in the technical reprt as a result f this research task: A reprt dcumenting recmmendatins n the impact t the GIC estimate f magnetmeter distance and cnductivity mdel selectin. Errr estimates versus distance t magnetmeter. Task 3C: Nn-unifrm Field Mdeling A realistic geelectric field during a gemagnetic event is nn-unifrm due t spatial variatins in bth the earth cnductivity and the gemagnetic field surce. The gal f this activity is t evaluate the impact f nn-unifrmities n GIC estimates and develp methds and mdels t handle these effects. Assess the castal effect and develp mdels t capture its effects. One f the mst imprtant 3D effects is the enhancement and rtatin f the electric field alng castal bundaries. Where 3D EMTFs are available, the exact electric field enhancement fr a given strm can be determined. In ther cases, available 1D cnductivity mdels, existing methds in gephysics literature and publicly available bathymetry data must be used t estimate the ptential cast effect. The fllwing steps will be perfrmed t prduce a frequency dependent cast mdel: Step 1 - Calculate the geelectric field using 3D EMTFs and the extreme strm scenari. Step 2 - Plt the estimated geelectric field respnse vs distance frm the cast. Step 3 - Use the published apprximatins t determine first rder theretical inland effective distances, by frequency. Step 4 - Use available pen surce tls and bathymetry maps t prduce a first rder 1D mdel f cast effects. This will be a map f the enhancement factr by distance frm the cast, fr a set f characteristic frequencies. Develp standardized methds r mdels fr capturing nn-unifrm geelectric fields. Develp mdels t assess GIC simulatin tls against nn-unifrm fields and cmpare GIC calculatins fr 3D and 1D grund cnductivity mdels. Step 1 - Select several examples f areas where electric field results shw lcal enhancements due t 3D cnductivity effects. Step 2 - Calculate the electric field using 1D and 3D mdels. Step 3 - Estimate GIC using these electric field inputs and cmpare them t GIC measurements, where pssible. NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

36 Task 3: Imprve Earth Cnductivity Mdels fr GIC Studies Step 4 - Mdify size f regin and size f lcalized enhancement and rerun analysis t determine impact f changes. As a result f this research the fllwing will be prvided in the technical reprt: First rder cast effect mdel. Guidance n the impact f nn-unifrm electric fields n GIC estimatin. Establish a wrking grup t prmte the adptin including mdeling f nn-unifrm geelectric fields (including castal effect) in cmmercially available sftware tls. Expected Deliverable Technical Reprt Estimated Time fr Cmpletin mnths frm start f wrk NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

37 Task 4: Study GIC Field Orientatin fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments Summary This Task will develp an apprach fr applying the benchmark geelectric field time series t individual transfrmers in thermal impact assessments. The research activities under this Task will cnsist f evaluating the existing apprach used t perfrm transfrmer thermal assessments, and if deemed deficient, develp alternative methds f applying the benchmark geelectric field time series t individual transfrmers t represent wrstcase ht-spt heating cnditins in transfrmer thermal impact assessments. Activities Determine hw the benchmark geelectric field wave shape can be applied t individual transfrmers t determine wrst-case htspt heating. Step 1 - Calculate GIC (t) using the Benchmark geelectric field time series and steady state GIC results fr a specified field rientatin (wrst case) using the methdlgy prvided in TPL and supprting dcumentatin. Using GIC (t), cmpute the time series htspt temperature, θ (t), using the prcedure described in TPL and supprting dcumentatin. Step 2 - Repeat the previus prcedure fr varius ther field rientatins (e.g., 0, 10, 20, 180 ), and cmpare the resulting htspt temperatures, θ (t), fr each rientatin. Step 3 - If the wrst-case htspt heating is nt generated by the electric field rientatin that results in the maximum steady-state GIC flw in the transfrmer, evaluate ther methds including, but nt limited t, phase shifting the benchmark geelectric field time series, such that the resulting GIC(t) yields the wrst-case htspt heating cnditins. The fllwing will be dcumented in the technical reprt and entities will be able t: Evaluate the ptential effects f nn-unifrm geelectric fields n the thermal assessment apprach presented in TPL and supprting dcumentatin; and Identify and quantify ptential surces f errr that can ccur. Expected Deliverable Technical Reprt Estimated Time fr Cmpletin mnths frm start f wrk NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

38 Task 5: Further Analyze the 75 A per Phase Criterin Used fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments Summary Cnduct additinal research and analysis t assess transfrmer thermal impact f the benchmark GMD event r ther realistic GMD events. Activities The research activities under this Task cnsist f evaluating the existing 75A per phase criterin based n IEEE C and if deemed deficient, develp alternative criteria. Recent research cnducted as part f EPRI s electrmagnetic pulse research will be leveraged in this task 14. Step 1 - Evaluate the existing temperature limits used in TPL and evaluate the ptential fr using ther temperature limits based n varius transfrmer cnditins and ther factrs. Step 2 - Determine the effects f shrt-term harmnic currents resulting frm part-cycle saturatin n tertiary winding heating. This will be accmplished by develping electrical mdels f typical highvltage auttransfrmers with tertiary winding and generatr step-up units that are suitable fr estimating the flw f harmnic currents in the delta cnnected windings that are the result f partcycle saturatin. The mdels will be examined using varius levels f GIC, and the additinal htspt temperature rise due t the flw f harmnic currents will be estimated. An analysis will be perfrmed t determine the ptential impact f this additinal htspt heating n the perfrmance f the transfrmer. Step 3 - Additinal time-dmain transfrmer thermal mdeling parameters (asympttic behavir and thermal time cnstants) will be develped fr varius transfrmer types and designs. Mdeling parameters will be extracted frm simulatin results prvided by transfrmer manufacturers and field/labratry test results (if available). The results f the thermal mdels prvided by the transfrmer manufacturer will be validated using field/labratry test data where available. Step 4 - Additinal transfrmer thermal analyses will be perfrmed t assess the efficacy f the existing 75 A/phase criteria. The basis f new current limits may be established based n the full spectrum f available transfrmer thermal mdels and the additinal temperature limits develped as a part f this research task. Based n the abve analysis, the technical reprt will include: The basis f new current limits if established based n the full spectrum f available transfrmer thermal mdels and the additinal temperature limits develped in the abve steps. Additinal transfrmer mdeling parameters (e.g., asympttic behavir and thermal time cnstants) will be included in a technical reprt. Expected Deliverable Technical Reprt 13 IEEE, Guide fr Establishing Pwer Transfrmer Capability While Under Gemagnetic Disturbances, IEEE Standard C Magnethydrdynamic Electrmagnetic Pulse Assessment f the Cntinental U.S. Electric Grid: Gemagnetically Induced Current and Transfrmer Thermal Analysis. EPRI, Pal Alt, CA: NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

39 Task 5: Further Analyze the 75 A per Phase Criterin Used fr Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessments Estimated Time fr Cmpletin 24 mnths frm start f wrk NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

40 Task 6: Sectin 1600 Data Request Summary The activities under this Task cnsist f develping the necessary guidance, technical guidelines, and slutins t supprt a request fr data r infrmatin under Sectin 1600 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure fr the cllectin f GIC data and magnetmeter data. In Order N. 830, FERC directed NERC, pursuant t Sectin 1600 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure, t cllect GIC mnitring and magnetmeter data frm registered entities fr the perid beginning May 2013, including bth data existing as f the date f the Order and new data ging frward. 15 Furthermre, FERC directed that NERC shuld make the cllected GIC and magnetmeter data available t supprt nging research and analysis f GMD risk. 16 The data are intended t prmte greater understanding f GMD events and their ptential impacts t reliable peratins. Fr example, measured GIC and magnetmeter data can help validate varius mdels used in calculating GICs and assessing their impacts in pwer systems. Varius entities, including sme Transmissin Owners, Generatr Owners, Transmissin Planners, and Planning Crdinatrs, cllect GMD data and may have GMD data fr the perid beginning in May The data request wuld apply t entities that have the specified GMD data. Activities Develp guidance fr the measurement f GIC and gemagnetic fields and frmatting requirements fr supplying measurement data and technical guidelines. A number f utilities have installed GIC mnitring equipment (e.g., participants in EPRI SUNBURST research prject), which measure, acquire, and transmit GIC data t database which can be used fr situatinal awareness and mdel validatin. Additinally, sme utilities have installed magnetmeters. Guidance develped in this task will help entities plan fr installing GIC mnitring and magnetmeters. Fr example: Mnitr lcatins. When planning fr new r additinal GIC mnitring installatins, cnsider that data frm mnitrs lcated in areas fund t have high GIC based n system studies may prvide mre useful infrmatin fr validatin and situatinal awareness purpses. Cnversely, data frm GIC mnitrs that are lcated near transprtatin systems using direct current (e.g. subways r light rail) may be unreliable. Mnitr specificatins. Capabilities f Hall effect transducers, existing and planned, shuld be cnsidered in entity perating prcesses. When planning new GIC mnitr installatins, cnsider mnitr data range (e.g., -500 A thrugh A) and ambient temperature ratings cnsistent with temperatures in the regin in which the mnitr will be installed. Magnetmeters. Entities that install magnetmeters shuld cnsider equipment specificatins and data frmat prtcls cntained in the latest versin f the Intermagnet Technical Reference Manual. 15 Order N. 830 at P 89. FERC clarified that this directive wuld nt apply t nn-u.s. respnsible entities, r Alaska and Hawaii. See id. at n Order N. 830 at P 93 ( The recrd in this prceeding supprts the cnclusin that access t GIC mnitring and magnetmeter data will help facilitate GMD research, fr example, by helping t validate GMD mdels. ). FERC clarified that if GIC mnitring and magnetmeter data is already publicly available (e.g., frm a gvernment entity r university), NERC need nt duplicate thse effrts. See id. at n NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

41 Task 6: Sectin 1600 Data Request Guidance t infrm criteria fr when entities shuld btain data fr future GMD events. Fr example: Kp threshld (warning r attained). Space weather alert indicating GMD cmmencement. GIC threshld (dc measurement f current in the transfrmer neutral). Guidance t infrm criteria that will prmte data standardizatin and usability fr mdel validatin purpses. Fr example: Data frmat. Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) (MM/DD/YYYY HH:MM:SS) time stamp and GIC Value (Ampere). Psitive (+) and negative (-) signs indicate directin f GIC flw (Psitive reference is flw frm grund int transfrmer neutral). Time fields indicate the sampled time rather than system r SCADA time. Sampling Interval. Data sampling during perids f interest at a cntinuus rate f 10 secnds r faster. Cllect time-series data. Guidance t infrm develpment f infrmatin technlgy systems fr data cllectin, hsting, and access. The data request will specify methds fr prviding data t the NERC database (fr example, data files, uplad t site using file transfer prtcl (FTP)). Expected Deliverables Criteria t Supprt a Request fr Data r Infrmatin under Sectin 1600 f the NERC Rules f Prcedure GIC/Magnetmeter Specificatin, frmat fr data request, and IT infrastructures t stre the data Estimated Time fr Cmpletin 12 mnths frm start f wrk NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

42 Task 7: Geelectric Field Evaluatin and Calculatin Tl Summary The activities under this Task cnsist f evaluating available tls fr calculating geelectric fields frm magnetic field data fr a given earth cnductivity structure and develping additinal tls as necessary t meet the needs f the industry. Activities Evaluate publicly available sftware tls fr calculating geelectric field frm magnetic field data fr given earth cnductivity structure. The gal f this Task is t review all publicly-available tls fr calculating geelectric field data fr a given earth cnductivity structure and use this review t leverage the develpment f the fllwing Task, which is t develp an pen surce tl capable f perfrming geelectric field calculatins using 1-D and 3-D layered earth mdel and time series gemagnetic data. Develp an pen surce tl capable f perfrming geelectric field calculatins using 1-D and 3-D layered earth mdel and time series gemagnetic data. Step 1 - Develp a set f cdes that can be used by utility analysts fr GMD planning, including dcumentatin and examples. Step 2 - Include the ptin f using 1D layered earth cnductivity mdels r a 3D EMTF. Perfrm time series simulatins with imprved 1D and 3D cnductivity mdels t evaluate the earth cnductivity (beta) scaling factrs. The gal is t imprve the cnductivity beta scaling factrs and make sme errr estimates t guide their use. Imprved cnductivity mdels will be used t imprve the scaling rati calculatin by lking at the entire spectral respnse instead f the rati f ne spectral cmpnent. This analysis will invlve the fllwing steps: Step 1 - Chse several gemagnetic field time series as surces. Examples include the extreme strm scenari, sme data frm the recent histrical recrd, and selected strms with different frequency cntent. An additinal ptin is t use artificially cnstructed magnetic spectra with different characteristics t test the errr bunds f the scaling factrs. Step 2 - Use the same "baseline" as the riginal beta factr calculatins. Calculate the peak geelectric field fr each magnetic strm input using the 1D Canadian Shield (Quebec) earth cnductivity mdel. Step 3 - Fr each lcatin/cnductivity mdel, and fr each input time series, calculate the peak electric field rati: max (E_lcatin)/max (E_CanadianShield). Step 4 - Fr each set f results frm Step 3, determine the beta factr, and the errr bars fr each lcatin. As a result f this research, the fllwing will be delivered in the technical reprt: Map f imprved beta factrs based n updated cnductivity prfiles, with errr bars. Expected Deliverables Technical Reprt Open Surce Sftware Tl NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

43 Estimated Time fr Cmpletin mnths frm start f wrk Task 7: Geelectric Field Evaluatin and Calculatin Tl NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

44 Task 8: Imprve Harmnics Analysis Capability Summary The activities under this Task cnsist f develping harmnics analysis guidelines and tls fr entities t use in perfrming system-wide assessment f GMD-related harmnics. GMD-related harmnics are caused by the partcycle saturatin f transfrmers. The harmnic currents and vltages resulting frm transfrmer saturatin have had majr impacts n system peratins and security during severe GMD events in the past. 17 Harmnics studies are an integral part f any GMD Vulnerability Assessment, and as such, are a key cmpnent f related reliability and planning assessments and assciated regulatry requirements. Perfrming harmnic analysis is difficult, and t date, the cmmercially available frequency-dmain tls d nt adequately address nuances f perfrming GMD-related harmnics studies. Fr example, there are sme imprtant difficulties and mdeling gaps that need t be addressed befre the harmnic impacts f a GMD event can be accurately assessed. Such difficulties and gaps include (but are nt limited t): 18 The effective GIC flw in all transfrmers in the netwrk must be knwn befrehand, and mapping between GIC and the harmnics that are created is required. The magnitude and phase angle f the injected harmnic currents f each transfrmer is affected by lcal vltage distrtin; thus, an iterative technique must be emplyed. The cmplex interactin f magnitude and phase angles f the injected harmnic currents f multiple transfrmers must be taken int accunt. Because part-cycle saturatin creates zer sequence harmnics, standard psitive sequence pwer flw data cannt be used alne as a basis fr assembling the system mdel. Harmnic resnance created by shunt capacitr banks, and the damping effect f lads must be cnsidered. Activities Step 1: Perfrm research necessary t develp mdels and methds t imprve capability f perfrming harmnic assessments f GMD events. Initial fcus will be n develping frequency-dmain transfrmer mdels that can be used in GIC-integrated harmnics studies. Step 2: based n the research cnducted in Step 1, an accurate GMD harmnic analysis apprach will be develped using prper cnsideratin f the clsed-lp interactins between the harmnic current injectins by the saturated transfrmers and the vltage distrtin that these injectins cause. Step 3: based n the results f Step 1 and 2, a frequency-dmain based harmnic GMD analysis tl will be develped. Included in this develpment, a GMD system mdel will be created t accurately assess and verify bth time-dmain mdels and the newly develped frequency-dmain mdels. This will prvide cnfidence in the frequency-dmain mdels that are develped as a part f this research Step. Step 4: All mdels and techniques develped as a part f this research will be implemented in an pen surce sftware tl. This tl will be used t: Aid system planners in evaluating impacts f harmnics n reactive pwer resurces (e.g. shunt capacitr banks, static var cmpensatrs, etc.); and 17 NERC, March 13, 1989 Gemagnetic Disturbance white paper, 18 EPRI, Analysis f Gemagnetic Disturbance (GMD) Related Harmnics (2014) NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

45 Task 8: Imprve Harmnics Analysis Capability Facilitate the implementatin f GMD harmnic assessments in cmmercially available sftware tls. Additinally, a harmnics mdeling wrkshp will be cnducted t facilitate knwledge transfer. Harmnics assessment tls will be validated with available GIC data as part f sftware and mdel validatin. The deliverables frm this task wuld be pen surce harmnics assessment sftware/tls and a technical reprt n harmnics analysis guidelines. Expected Deliverables Reprt Open Surce Sftware Tl Estimated Time fr Cmpletin mnths frm start f wrk NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

46 Task 9: Harmnic Impact Studies Summary The activities under this Task cnsist f activities t understand the impacts f harmnics n pwer system equipment. The Task will address the adverse impacts t transfrmers and generatrs caused by harmnics assciated with GMD events. This Task respnds t FERC s directin t address the effects f harmnics n transfrmers. The impacts f transfrmer heating are cvered in detail in Tasks 4 and 5 f this plan. This sectin will fcus mainly n the impacts f vibratins n pwer transfrmers. Activities Transfrmer harmnic assessment: Step 1 Research and reprt n all available data (including published industry and EPRI dcuments and available transfrmer manufacture test data) n the fllwing tpics: Typical tank vibratin levels and frequency spectrum in absence f GIC. This infrmatin wuld be used t develp a baseline f tank vibratin levels and frequency spectrum. The fllwing wuld be included in this sample: Transfrmers with n vibratin issues (e.g., new cnstructin). Transfrmers with vibratin issues (e.g., existing cnstructin that may have existing lse hardware). Impact f GIC n transfrmer nise. This infrmatin wuld be used t cmpare against a baseline f tank vibratin levels and frequency spectrum. Theretical impact f GIC n cre nise (analysis t be verified by testing) n transfrmer nise level and frequency spectrum. Examples f measured impact f GIC n cre nise. Crrelatin between calculated and measured impact f GIC n cre nise (i.e., crrelatin with neutral GIC and crrelatin with effective GIC). Dcumented in the technical reprt will be recmmendatins n the feasibility f using tank vibratin measurements t mnitr impacts f GIC n transfrmers and impact f vibratins due t GIC n the integrity f transfrmers. This research will be needed t prvide guidance in realtime mnitring t prtect transfrmers against vibratin damage caused by GIC. Identify areas fr future study. Step 2 - Perfrm transfrmer tank vibratin measurements n tw (2) transfrmers when subjected t GIC. Testing t be cnducted in a labratry envirnment. Cmpare measurements t the theretical relatinship between tank vibratins and level f GIC. Develp expected relatinship between tank vibratins and level f GIC fr higher levels f GIC. Dcumented in the technical reprt will be the fllwing: Impact f higher tank vibratins due t GIC n integrity f pwer transfrmers. Future actins and/r research activities needed. NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

47 Generatr harmnic assessment: Task 9: Harmnic Impact Studies Step 1 - Perfrm assessment f harmnic effects n generatrs t imprve understanding f gaps in existing Reliability Standards with harmnic levels that are unique t GMD events. This assessment will include all available published and existing EPRI research. Step 2 - The generatr harmnic assessment will use the system level harmnic mdeling research results. The system level harmnic mdeling will prvide guidance fr the level f expected GMD related harmnics that wuld be surced frm a generatr. Step 3 - Results frm the harmnic tl can then be cmpared t published standards t better understand the prblems that will result frm generatr harmnics. Dcumented in the technical reprt will be: The gaps in published standards that are unique t GMD events; Ptential issues that are already addressed in the standards; and Future scping and testing needs. Expected Deliverable Technical Reprt Estimated Time fr Cmpletin 24 mnths frm start f wrk NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

48 Estimated Prject Csts It is estimated that this plan wuld require, ver a minimum three-year perid, apprximately $3 millin t $3.5 millin t cmplete, including csts fr research and time and csts assciated with identifying and develping infrmatin technlgy (IT) systems fr hsting cllected GMD data. The estimated cst fr the cmpletin f the research activities (i.e., excluding IT csts) is apprximately $2.72 millin, as detailed in Table 1 belw. Table 1.1 Research and Develpment Csts, by Task (estimated) Task Tpic Time t Cmpletin (frm start f wrk) Price 1 Spatial Averaging mnths $890,000 2 Latitude Scaling 24 mnths $225,000 3 Earth Cnductivity Mdels mnths $397,000 4 Gemagnetic Field Orientatin mnths $50,000 5 Transfrmer Thermal Impact Assessment Criterin 6 Guidance and Guidelines t Supprt Sectin 1600 Data Request 7 Geelectric Field Evaluatin and Calculatin Tl 24 mnths $400,000 ($30k added per additinal transfrmer mdel beynd 10) 12 mnths $50, mnths $305,000 8 Harmnics Analysis Capability mnths $200,000 9 Harmnic Impact Studies 24 mnths $205,000 Ttal $2,722,000 NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

49 Prject Schedule Example EPRI has prvided the fllwing as an example f a prject schedule that shws the estimated timeframes fr cmpleting the research activities under each Task in the timeframe. NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

50 Prject Schedule Example NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

51 Prject Schedule Example NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May

52 Prject Schedule Example NERC Preliminary GMD Research Wrk Plan May