א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א -١ -
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- Philomena Berry
- 5 years ago
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1 א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א عبدالرحمن بن يوسف شاهين א د. جويبر بن ماطر الثبيتي د. حمزة بن عبد االله عقيل א א א א א א א א ٢٠٠٣ ١٤٢٤-١ -
2 א א א א W א K K א א א א אW א א א W א א W א א א א א א א K K١ K א א א א א K٢ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א KK א א א א א א א א א א א א J١ א א א א א אK א א א א א א J٢ א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K١ K٢ K٣-٢ -
3 Abstract Researcher Abdull-Rahman Yusuf Ahmed Shaheen. Title: Use of the Scenario as a Method for Applications in Educational planning Aim of the study : 1- To showcase the use of the scenario as a method and illustrate the importance of its application in educational planning 2- Create a scenario that contains the elements of educational planning in the kingdom Of Saudi Arabia. Curriculum of the study The study depends on the descriptive analytic method that requires the researcher to peruse all of the studies, researches, references,etc., that are relevant to the most important topics that discuss the method of scenario and its applications in educational planning. Those are mainly represented by foreign sources and this is due to the shortage of relevant material in Arabic literature. Results of the study 1. the scenario is considered to be one of the modern academic methods that are used in future administrative planning processes and in innovative methods of thought that assist in the decision making process in a wide range of possible alternatives. 2. From this method it is possible predict the future progress of institutions educational associations in understanding future expected changes, in accordance with past and present requirements. Recommendations of the study 1. Increase the importance of future studies in the kingdom and its curricula,its materials,and methods of researching their integral elements. 2. Construct a coputerised educational project and revise, with introspection all past educational environment in the schools. 3. Increase the importance of coputerised educational administrative management. -٣ -
4 א א א א א K א א א K א K K א א K א א K א א א א K א K א א א -٤ -
5 شكر وتقدير قال تعالى( لي نشكرتم لا زيدكم ( א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א K א א א L א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א L א K א א א א א א א א א א א L א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K -٥ -
6 א א א Abstract א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א W א א א K א א א א א א א א א א E א א א F א W א א א א E א א F א W א א א א א W א א ١ ١ ٣ ٣ ٣ ٥ ٩ ٩ ١٠ ١٠ ١٤ ١٧ ٢١ ٢٤ ٢٦ ٢٩ ٣٤ ٣٩ ٤٧-٦ -
7 א א א W א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א E א א א א E K א א א א א א א א א א W א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א ٣٠٠٠ א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٥٢ ٥٢ ٥٢ ٥٦ ٥٩ ٦٦ ٦٦ ٦٩ ٧١ ٧٢ ٧٢ ١١٨ ١٣٧ ١٤١ ١٤٤ ١٤٤ ١٤٥-٧ -
8 א א W א א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א?א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א E١F א א א א E ٢٠٠٠F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א E١F E א א F -٨ -
9 א א א א א א א א א א א E١F K א א E٢F W E ٢٠٠٠ F א א K time series methods א א J١ K א א J٢ K causal models א א J٣ Kgaming א א J٤ Kcross - impact analysis א א J٥ K participatory methods א א J٦ K א א א J٧ K א א א J٨ א א K א א א J٩ א א א א panel-discussion א א KDelphi-method brain-storming K Scenarios א א J١٠ א א א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א K א א א E١F E א א F E٢F K א -٩ -
10 א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א E א א F א E א א F א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K W א א א א א א א א א J١ א א J٢ א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א K K٣ א א א K٤ אK א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א -١٠ -
11 א אא א א א א א א א K א א א א א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א א א א א K ٢٥٠ K E F א א א א א א א א א K ٢ K א א א א א א א א א E ١٤١٩F א א א א K F א א א א א א א א א א E K ٤ K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K E ٢٠٢٠F א א א W א א א א א א א א א K א א א אK K١ K٢-١١ -
12 א א א א א א א א W ١- الدراسات المستقبلية واستشراف المستقبل. א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א? א א א?? א א א? W א أ _ الدراسات المستقبلية. א א? E ١٩٩٧F א א א ١٨ K א א א א א א א א? א א א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א ١٨? א א א? E ١٩٧٣ F Shane א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ١١ ٧ K? א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א -١٢ -
13 ب استشراف المستقبل. א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א W א א א א א א K א א?W E ١٤١٧F א ٩١ K ٧ K א א א א א א א א E١٣٢٩٩ F א א G א א א? E ١٩٨٦ F א ١٦٥? א א א א?WE ١٩٩١ F א א א א א א א א א א א K ٢٧? א א א א?W א א א E ٢ א ١٩٩٨ F א א א א א א א א א א K ٧? W א א א א א א א א א K א E א F א J٢ א א א א א א א א א א F א א E א א א K -١٣ -
14 א א א א? א? א א? E ١٤١٧ F א א א א? א א א א א א א א K א א F א W א א K א א א א א K ١ K א א א א ٤٠٤?W א א E ١٩٩٦ F Schwartz א? E١F ٨١٧ J٨١٦ K?? א W E ١٩٩٦ F May E ٢ F K ١٦١? א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٧?? W א א א E F א ٢? א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א K א א א א E١F K ٧ E ١٩٩٨ F א E ٢ F K א א -١٤ -
15 ٣ -التخطيط التربوي א א א א א? W א א E ١٩٩٩ F א K ٢٠ K? א? E ١٤١٢F א א א אא א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אJ ١٠٣ K ١٠٤ K א א א? E ١٤٠٧ F א K ٢٢-١٥ -
16 א א W א א KKK א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E ١٤٠٧F W א א א א א א א א א א א J١ א א א א א א K א א א א א א J٢ K א א א א א א א J٣ K א א א א א א א א א א א J٤ ٨٧ א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א W א א א א א W K א א א W K א א W K א א E א א F א א W K א א א א א W א א א W א א א W K א א א א א א א W K א א א א א א א א א W -١٦ -
17 א א W א א W א W א א א א א E F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א E ١٩٨٢ F De GREENE ١٣٥K? א א א א א א א E١F א א א א א May E٢F J א א א א J א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א. W א K א א א J١ K א א א א א א א א א א? א LONGMAN?? E ١٢٧٢ K א א א? WEBSTER?? E ٤٥١ K א א א? E ١٩٦٧F א א א א E א א א א א K ٨١٧? א E١F K א ٨ E٢F -١٧ -
18 א Schwartz א? E١F K א א? א? א א א א א א א א א א K א א א E ١٩٩٦ F E٢F א א א א א א א א K א א J٢ א א א א E ١٩٩٩ F א א א א א F א W E א א א א א א א א א K ٥ J ٤ K א א KK א א א א א J٣ א א א א א א א א א?W E ١٩٩٩F א א א K ١ K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א E א F E٣F אK E١F א ٨ E٢F ٤ E F א E٣F -١٨ -
19 א א א א א E١٩٩٨ F א א א א א א א א א א ٢٤٧ K א א א א א א K א א ٤ א א א E ١٩٩٩F א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א F א א א KE א א F א א א א א א א א א E ١٤١٩ K ٢٠ K א א א KKK א א א א J ٥ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א E ٢٠٠٠ F W א א א א א א א? א א א א א א K? א א א ٢١٠ J٢٠٩ א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٧ K -١٩ -
20 א א א א א א W א א W א א א E K א א א א א W א א א א W J١ J٢ א א א א W א א E א א א א א א א א K ١٤٥٠ א א א א W א א א א א א א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א א K E١F א א E ١٩٧٨F? Wilson? א א א א א א א E ٢٠٠٠F ١ א א א א K א א א א א K ٢١ K א א א א א E ١٩٩١F א א א א א א א F א א א א K ٣٥ K א א א א E א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א ٤٤٣ K א א א א א א E١F ٢٠ E F א -٢٠ -
21 c א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K E١F א E ٢٠٠٠ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K ٧ K א א E ١٤١٨ F א א א K١٨٢ K א א א א א E ١٩٩٩ F א א א א א א א K٤٢ K א א א א א א א E٢F א א א א א א א א ٣٠ א K א א א E١٩٧٣F Shane א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E١F E א א F E٢F -٢١ -
22 א א א א א א K ١١ ٧ K? א א א א E ١٩٩٨F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אF א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א אJ ١٦ K K ١٧ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K٢٩ ٢٨ K א א א א E ١٩٧٨ F Wilson E١F K א א א א E ١٩٩٦ F א א א א א א E٢F K א א א א E١F K ٤ E F א E٢F K א א -٢٢ -
23 א א א א א א א K א א א א א E ١٩٩٩ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٣٣ K א א E١F א E ٢٠٠٠ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א K ٥٤ J ٥٣ א א א א א א K א א E ١٩٩٦ F E٢F א א א E ١٩٧٨ F Wilson K E٣F K א א א א E F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٤ K E١F E٢F K ٤ E F א E٣F -٢٣ -
24 W א E١F א א א E ٢٠٠١ F? Daums? א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אKahn??Herman א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א?Pierre Wack? א א א א א א א א א א W א K א א א א א J١ K א א א א J٢ E F א א א א א J٣ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ١٩٦٧ א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א? K א? א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א W E F א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א (١) -٢٤ -
25 א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E F E١F א K א א א א א א א א E ١٩٨٨F Reibnitz? Seneca? א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א Clausewitz-Moltke א א א א א א א א א Clausewitz - Moltke?? א W א א א א K K א א ١١ K א א א א א J١ J٢ J٣ Herman Kahn? א א א א א א א א א א א א Rand א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א E١F -٢٥ -
26 K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א J٢ א א א א א K ١٣ J١١ א א E ١ F E ٢٠٠١F? Daums? א א א א א א א J١ K١ K٢ K ١٩٧٢? א? W א א א א א א J٢ א א א א F Datar א K א Battelle E א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א E٢F K א א א א א א א א א א E ١٩٨٨F Reibnitz א א א א א א א א א E ١ F E٢F K א א -٢٦ -
27 א א א א א א K ١٣ K א א א א א א E ١٩٩٠ F א א א Rand א Kahn א א א א א?٢٠٠٠? א Wiener K ٩٥? א? א א א א א א א E F א א "Herman Kahn" א א א א א א א Rand א א א א א א א א א א א א? א? א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א? א א א K١?? E F א א א א? א א א א א א א א א א K ٣ א? א? א א א א א א א א א א א א א? א א א? K א א א א א א E ١٣٩٩ F א א א א א א א א א א א -٢٧ -
28 א? א א א א א א א א א א א א K٣٢?KK א W E F א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٢ K א א א א K١ K٢ E١F א W א א א E ٢٠٠٠ F א א א א א א E א א א א K א א א א E K א א א א א א א א E א א א א א א K א א א E K א E ١٤١٩ F א א א א א א א א א א א א W א K א א א א J K א א א א א א א ٧٢ K (١) -٢٨ -
29 E١F W א א א E ٢٠٠١F א א אK א א א א א K א א א א א K١ K٢ K א א א K א E א F א א K א א א W E٢F K א א א א א K٤ א א א א K١ K٢ K٣ E٣F אK W א E ١٩٨٨F? Reibnitz? K א א K א א K א א א א א א א א א K ٢٢٨ J ٢٢٥ K א א E٤F א א? א? K١ K٢ K٣ K٤ K א א א E ١٩٧٧ F Delp א א W א א א א K א א א K١ E١F E٢F א א E٣F E٤F -٢٩ -
30 א א א א א אK K א ١٦٥ J١٦٤ K א א א E١F W א א א E ١٩٩٩ F Godet K٢ K٣ K٤ K א K א K א K א א K א א K א א א א א א א א א E ١٩٩٩ F א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א J١ א א א א א א א א א א א א אא א א א א K١ K٢ K٣ K٤ K٥ K٦ א K א אא א א J٢ א א א א אK א א א א א א א א J٣ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK ١١ K (١) -٣٠ -
31 א א א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א E ١٩٩٨ F א W א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K ٢٥٩ ٢٥١ K K١ K٢.٣ K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K E١F א א א E١٩٩٣ F Wilson א א א א א א K E٢F W E ٢٠٠٠ F א א א K J١ E١F E٢F E א א F -٣١ -
32 K א א א א א K ٢٣ K J٢ J٣ E١F W E ٢٠٠١ F? Daums? א א א א א א א א א K א א א א W א E ١٩٧٧ F Delp K א א א א א א K ١٦٣ א א א א א א א א א E ١٩٩٨ F ٢٥٣ K E٢F א א א א E Wilkinson F א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א E١F א ٢٠٢٠ א? ٢٠٢٠ א א א א א א א א א א א א ٢٠٢٠ א א א אJ ١٧ K K ١٩ W א א א א א א א א א א א J١ K א א א א א א א א א א א J٢ K א א (١) (٢) Ehttp:// -٣٢ -
33 W א E ١٤١٩F א א K א א א א E١F א א א א א א א K א א K א א א א א א K א א K א א א K א א א א א E ٢٠٠٠F٢٠٢٠ E١F א א א א?א אE١F? E٢F E٣F E٤F E٥F א א W K א א א א J١ א א א א J٢ א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א J٣ א א א א א א J٤ א א א א א א K א א E ٢٠٠٠ F E ١٩٩٨ F א א W א א E K K א א א E K א E (1) -٣٣ -
34 א א א א א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א E א א א א K K א א א E K א א א E א א א E א F K א א א א א א א א E٢١٧ ٢١٦ ٢٠ ١٩ ١٩٩٨ W א E ١٩٩٨ F א K K ٢٥٣ J١ J٢ E١F W א א E ١٩٩٩ F Godet א K א א K אK K א K א א א א א? E ١٩٩٨ F א א א א א א א א E? ٢٠٢٠ F ٢٠٢٠ א א א א E ٢ F א ٢٠٢٠ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K١ K٢ K٣ K٤ K٥ W א א E١F -٣٤ -
35 K א א א א א א א J١ א א א א א א א א J٢ א א א W K א א א E K א E K א E W א א א א א J٣ א א אK א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א אK W J٧ K א א א א א E١٠ J١ J٢ E١ E٢ E٣ E٤ E٥ E٦ E٧ E٨ E٩ K١٣ E١F W א E ١٩٧٨ F Wilson K א א א E E١F ٧١ E ١٤١٩ F א א -٣٥ -
36 K א א E K א א E K א E E א א א F א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א? E ١٩٩٨ F א א א E٤ F א ٢٠٢٠ א? E ٢٠٢٠ F א א א א א W W א א א א א א F K א א א א א K E K א א א א א א W א א א א א א א KK א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א K K א א J١ E١ E٢ E٣ E٤ E٥ E٦ E٧ E٨ E٩ K א אE١٠-٣٦ -
37 K א אE١١ K א א א א E١٢ K K א א א א E١٣? E ٢٠٠٠F٢٠٢٠ א א א א א א א א א?א א E١F א א א א א K E٢F W א א א א א א א E١ א א K א א א א א א E٢ W א א א א K א א א א א א E KK א א א א E K א א א E K א E א א א א א א E ٣ א א א א א K א W א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א F א א E א א א F אK E א א F א אK E J١ J٢ J٣ E١F -٣٧ -
38 E א א F א א J١ K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א K א א א א א E א F א א א א א א א א K E ٢٣ ١٩٩٨ א F K K E א F א א א J٢ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א F א א K א א E א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א E ٢٤ ١٩٩٨ א F K א א א -٣٨ -
39 K E א א F א א ٣ E א א F א א א א א א א W E ١٩٩٨ F א א א א E א א K א א א א א E K E ٢٥ ١٩٩٨ אFK א א א W א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א J ٢٧ ١٩٩٨ אFK א א א K ٢٨ ٢٠٢٠ א א א א E١F א E٣F א א? א א א W א? E ٢٠٠٠F א א א א ٢٠٢٠ K١ K٢ K٣ א א W K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K E١ E٢ E٣ W א א E١F -٣٩ -
40 K א א א א א א? א א? א? א א? א K א א א א א א K א F א E א F א? א? א א א E א א K????? א?? א? א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א? א א? א א א? א? א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K K١ K٢ K٣ K٤ K٥ K٦ K٧ K٨-٤٠ -
41 KK א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W E ٢٠٠٠F E ١٩٩٨ F א K א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K E٣٠ ١٩٩٨ א F א א א א E ٢٠٠٠ F א א א א א א א א א K ٢١٨ K א K א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א W א א א א א א א ١٦ א א א א א א א K א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א א א W -٤١ -
42 K K א א ٤٦ K א א א K١ K٢.٣ KK א א א א W W א א E ١٩٩٨F א א א א אא א א K١ K א א א א א א א F א E א א א א K٢ א K FW א א K٣ א א א א א א א K E א א א K٤ ٥٠ J ٤٩ א א E ١٤١٩F א א א W א א א א K א א א K١ K א א א K٢ K K٣ K٧٥ J ٧٤ K K٤ א E ١٤١٩ F א א א א א א K W א א א K א א K١ K א א א א K٢ K א א K٣ א K ٧٧ ٧٦ K -٤٢ -
43 K א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א F K א E ٥٠ ١٩٩٨ W א א א א א E ٢٠٠٠ F א א א א K١ א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א K٢ א א א K א א א א K٣ K ٢١٨ ٢١٧ K א א א א א א E ١٩٩٩ F א א W א א J١ K K א א J٢ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א J٣ א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א J٤ K א א E -٤٣ -
44 K א א א E W א א J٥ K א E K א E K א א א E K א א א א E K א א א K א א א J٦ א א א א א א א א א א א K K J٧ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K?? א א א א ٣١ J ٢٣ K א א J٩ E١F W א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א אK E١ E٢ E٣ E٤ E١F -٤٤ -
45 א א א א א K א א א אW K א א א א E E٥ E٦ K א E K א א א א E K א א א E٧ E١F א E ٢٠٠١ F Daums א א א א K K א א K א א א א א א אK א א א אK K א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א W J١ J٢ J٣ J٤ J٥ J٦ J٧ J٨ (١) -٤٥ -
46 א א E א אF א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א? א א א א א א א K? א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א ) ا نا لا يغيرما بقوم حتى يغيرواما با فسهم ( سورة الرعد (١١) W א א א א א א א א א א א א W ) وا عدوا لهم ما استطعتم من قوة ومن رباط الخيل ( سورة الا فال ) ٦٠) -٤٦ -
47 א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E ١٩٩١F א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א ٣٠ K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א W (يا ا يها الذين ا منوا اتقواا ولتنظر فسما قدمت لغدواتقواا ا نا خبيربما تعملون)الحشر( ١٨ ) א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E F K א א א -٤٧ -
48 K א א E א F א J١ א א א א א א א א א א W א א ا ي ا ر ى س ب ع ب ق ر ات س م ان K (٤٣) ي ا ك ل ه ن س ب ع ع ج اف و س ب ع س نب لا ت خ ض ر و ا خ ر ي اب س ات א א א א א א א א W (٤٧) ت ا ك ل ون م م ا ق ل يلا ا لا س نب ل ه ف ي ف ذ ر وه ح ص دت مف م ا. ث م ي ا ت ي م ن ب ع د ذ ل ك س ب ع ش د اد ي ا ك ل ن م ا ق د م ت م ل ه ن ا لا ق ل يلا م م ا ت ح ص ن ون (٤٨) ث م ي ا ت ي م ن ب ع د ذ ل ك ع ام ف يه ي غ اث الن اس و ف يه ي ع ص ر ون (٤٩) K F א א א א א א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א -٤٨ -
49 ل ك ف ر ا و ات ق و ا ا م ن وا ال ك ت اب ا ه ل ا ن ع ن ه م س ي ي ات ه م و لا د خ ل ن اه م ج ن ات و ل و الن ع يم ) ٦٥ ( و ل و ا ق ام وا الت و ر اة ا ه م ا ل يه م ا ز ل و م ا و الا نج يل م ن ر ب ه م لا ك ل وا م ن ت ح ت و م ن ف و ق ه م ا ر ج ل ه م ) ٦٦ K א ( ( ٩٧ ) ال ق ر ى ا ه ل ا م ن ا و ا ي م ون ب ي اتا و ه م ب ا س ن ا ي ا ت ي ه م ا ن ال ق ر ى ا ه ل ا ف ا م ن W ي ل ع ب ون ) ٩٨ ( K א א ي ا ت ي ه م ا ن و ه م ب ا س ن ا ض ح ى א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א K א א E א F א J٢ E ١٤١٢F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א?? א א? א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א ١٤ K? א W א א J W א א א א א א K א א x א א z -٤٩ -
50 א א א Kא א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א x א zw א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א zw א א x zw K א א x א א א א א א א א א א א K : א K א א J K א (٧٥) ل ل م ت و س م ين ا ن ف ي لا ي ات ذ ل ك א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א K א א J א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א -٥٠ -
51 א א א א א א א K K א J א א א א א א א א א FW א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א K? א?? א? W א א א א W א א א א א K א E א א F א א א א W?א א א א? W K? א? K א א א א א W א א K א E א F א J٣ א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א -٥١ -
52 א א א א E ١٩٩١ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W? א א? א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א K K א א א W א K א א א W א א א א א א ٥١ ٤٩ K E א F א -٥٢ -
53 K א E א F א J٤ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א?W א E ١٤٢٠F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א ٣٠٦ ٣٠٥ K א K א א -٥٣ -
54 KKK א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א K א א א E ١٩٩٩ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א ١ K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K ٧ K א א א א א א א א א א א א א E F א א א א א א K ٣٠ K א א א E F א א א א E א F א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W -٥٤ -
55 א א א א א א א א J١ א א א K א א א א א א א א K א J٢ א א א א א J٣ א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K J٤ J٥ E١F W א א א א א א א א א א K א א א K א א א א W E ٩٧٧F Delp א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א K א א א א ١٦٢ K א א א א א א E٢F W א א א א K١ K٢ K١ K٢ K٣ K٤ א א E٢F -٥٥ -
56 א K א א K١ K א א א א א א K٢ K א K٣ K א K٤ א א א א א א א K٥ א א א א א אK W E ١٩٩٥ F Leekley א א א א א א א K١ K א א א א א א א א K٢ K א א א א א א א א E F א א W K א א א א א א K١ ٢ K א א א א א K٢ K א א K٣ א א א א א א K٤ K٦ K א א E ١٤١٩ F א א א א א K٥ א א א א א א א א W א K א א א א E K א א א א א א א E ٧٢ K E W א א א J٦ K א א א J K א א א א א J -٥٦ -
57 K א א א א J K א א א א א J K א א J K א א J א א א א א א א J א א א א K E١F K א א א א E٢F א א א א א א א א א א K Moderini א א א E٣F W א E ١٩٩٧ F Marti K K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א W K א א א א E K א א א E א א E K١ K٢ K٣ K٤ א א K E٤F K א א א א K٥ E ١٩٨٨F Reibnitz א א W א K א א E٢F E٣F K א א E٤F -٥٧ -
58 K א א K١ K K٢ K K٣ K K٤ ٦ K א -٥٨ -
59 א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א W K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א W א א א אא א א א W K א א א W K א א א א E K א א א E א א א E W א אE ١٩٩٣ F א W א א G א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K ٤٢ K א א א W א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א K א א א א א א א J١ K א J٢ ١٣ K א J٣ W א א א א א G א א א א א א א א א א -٥٩ -
60 א א א א א א א א א א א K ٤٢ K א א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ١٣ K א W א א א E ٢٠٠٠ F W א G W א K א א א W א א א E١F E٢F W א א א G W א א א E١F K א א א א W א א E٢F א א א א א א א א א א K W א א א א W א א א J K א א א א א א א א W א א א J א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K -٦٠ -
61 W א א א J א א א א א א ٢١٥ ٢١٢ K א א W א א E F א K א K א J١ J٢ א א? א א א? א K ١١ E١F א א?? א א א E ١٩٩٤ F א K א א K א K א א א G E٢٠٠٠ אF א E ١٩٨٤ F א א K١ K٢ K٣ W א א א W E א א א F א א J١ א א א E א א א F א א J٢ א א K א א א א א J٣ ٥٧ K א א א א E٣F א א א א א א W א א א? א א א? א א א F א א א אK E K١ E١F ١٥ E ١٩٩٨ F א G ٢٠٠٠ א א א א א א א א E٣F ١٥ E ١٩٩٨F א -٦١ -
62 א אF א א א אKE K٢ K א א א א א K٣ א א א א E ١٩٨٨ F ١٩٨٥ א א א א א א א א א א א א ٢٠١٥ א א א א W K א א J١ K א א א J٢ K א א J٣ א א א? א א א E ١٩٩٨ F א א W E ٢ F א ٢٠٢٠ א ٢٠٢٠ W א א א E K א א א א א א א א א א א E W W א א E١F א א א א א א א א א K W א א E٢F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K W א א א E٣F א א א א א א K א א א א א W? א א?? א א? E א א א ٢١ J ١٧ K א א -٦٢ -
63 א א א א E E١F W א א E ١٩٩٩F Godet א א א W J١ K א א א א א א א א א א W J٢ K א W א א E ١٩٩٨ F א א א W א א א K א א א א א NAFTA א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א W א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א Europeanism א א א א א K א א W א א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א K ٢٠٧ ٢٠٦ K א א א א א א E٢F א א א א א E ١٩٩٦F Dahle א א א W W א ٢٠١٠ א J E١F ١٥ E ١٩٩٨ F א (٢) -٦٣ -
64 K א א א E١ K א א א E٢ K א א E٣ E١F א א א א א א א W א א א W א א K١ א א א א א א א א K W א א א א א K٢ K א W K٣ א א א א א א א א א א K E٢F W א? א א? א א א K K א א א א א K K א א K א א א א E٣F א W א? א א E١ E٢ E٣ E٤ E٥ א W? א א? W א א א? E١ א א ١٦ ١٦ J ١٥ א ١٦ א (١) (٢) (٣) -٦٤ -
65 א א? W א א א K? א א? W א א א? K א א א א א א א א א? א א? W א K? א א? W א K א א E١F W א א א E ١٩٩٤ F Slaughter א א א א א אK W א E٢F א א א א א א א א W א א א א E٢ E٣ E٤ E٥ E١F א אK E٣F K א א W א א K א א א א א א E٢F W א E ١٩٨٦F Godet א א א א K א א K א אK א א א א א E١ E٢ E٣ E٤F K ٦٠ K א א E١F ١٤ א א E٢F ١٤ א -٦٥ -
66 K א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E ١٤١٨ F א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W W א א א J١ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א W א J٢ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א W א J٣ א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٤٨ ٤٧ E ٣ F א א א E ١٤١٨ F א W א א א א -٦٦ -
67 א א W א א א א א א א א א א K א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א W א א א א א א א א א א א אJ ١٧٣ K ١٧٤ א א א E ١٩٩٠ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א? א א? א א א?א אApproach? System א א א א א א Delphi א א א א א א א א א א Technique אTechnique א א א א Scenario א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א -٦٧ -
68 א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W W א E١F W א א א א א א א א א א K١ א א א א K א א K٢ K א א א א א א א א W א א E٢F W א א א א א א K١ K א א א K٢ K א א א א א K٣ K א א א K٤ א א א K٥ א K K א א א א א א K٦ א א א א א א א א K٧ K א א א א W א א א א E٣F W א א א א א א א K١ K א א א א א א א W א א א א א א K٢ K א א א E K א א א E K א א א א א א E -٦٨ -
69 K א א א E א א א א K ٣ K א א א W א א E٤F W א א א א W א א א א א א א E١ א K א א א א א א E ٢ א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א E ٣ K א א א א א א א א א א E ٤ K א א א א א א א א אא א E ٥ K א? א א א? א א א א א א א E ٦ א א א ٢٩٤ K א K ٣٣٥ J א א א? א א? א א א א א א א א א א א K א א E ١٩٩٣ F Al-Hazzaa א א א א א א א ٢٠١٠ W -٦٩ -
70 K א K ٥٠ K א J١ J٢ J٣ א א א א א א א א א א א א E١F א E ١٩٩٦F א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א F א א אW E K א א K א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W E١ E٢ E٣ א אW א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א W א א א א אK K א א א א א K١ K٢ E١F -٧٠ -
71 א א א א א K א א א א א K א W א א K א א א : א א א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א? א? א א א א א א K K א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א K א א E١F א E ١٩٩٣ FGarratson א א א א א א א א K١ K٢ K٣ K٤ K٣ K١ K٢ K٣ ٢٦ E F א (١) -٧١ -
72 א א א א א א א E١F א E ١٩٩٣ F Keegan א א א א א א א א א א W א א K א א א א K א א א א K א א K א א א א א E٢F א E ١٩٩٥ FLeekley א W א א א א K א א א א א J١ K א א J٢ K١ K٢ K٣ K٤ E١F ٢٦ א א E٢F ٢٧ א א -٧٢ -
73 א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א KK א א E א א א F א א א F א E א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א F א E א K א א א א W א א א א K א א א א K א א א K א א א א א אK K א א א א K E١F ٣٠٠٠ א א J١ א א א א א א א א א א א א (١) -٧٣ -
74 א א א א א א א א א K א א א א Jerry Glenn א א KTheodore J. Gordon W א א ٣٠٠٠ א א W א K ٣٠٠٠ א א W א א א K א א W אK א א א W א אK א א W א א א אK א א W א א אK א א א א K א א א א א K E١F א א א א א J٢ א ١٩٩٨ א א א א א א ١٩٩٨ א א W א WE א א אF K١ א א א א א W א א K٢ אK א W א א א א K٣ א א אK K א א א W א א K٤ (١) -٧٤ -
75 א א א א א אW K א א א א א א K١ K ١٩٩٦ א א א א א K٢ K ١٩٩٧ א א א א א K٣ א א א א א א א א א K٤ K א א א Delphi א א? א? K٥ א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K W א א א א א א א א א א א א א אF א א J١ KE א א א K א א J٢ K א א א J٣ K א א א J٤ K א א א א א א א J٥ K א א א א א א א J٦ K E١F ٢٠٥٠ א א א א J٣ א E ١٩٩١ F Gordon Glenn K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠ א א א F א E א א א א א א א א (١) -٧٥ -
76 א א א א א א K א א K E١F א א J٤ א א א א א א ٢٠٠١ א א א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א F א E א K א א א E F א א א א א א א א א W K א א א א א J١ א א א א א א א א א א K א K K ٢٠٥٠ א א א א J٢ א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א E F א? א א א א א א א א? א א א א א א א א א א א F א E א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א (١) -٧٦ -
77 KE א א F א א E F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אJ ٢٠٠٠ ٣٠٠٠ W א א א א א א א א J١ א א א ٢٠٠١ ٢٠٠٠ א א K ٢١٠٠ א א א א ٢٠٥٠ א J٢ א ٢٠٠١ ٢٠٠٠ א א א א K ٢٠٥٠ א א > ٣٠٠٠ א א J٣ א א א א ٢٠٠١ ٢٠٠٠ K ٣٠٠٠ א א א א א א J٤ א אK א א א א א א א א E אF א א א א א א א W א א א א א א K K١ K א K٢ K א K٣ K א א א K٤ א א א א א א א א א א א א א K -٧٧ -
78 K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E א F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א K J١ א א א א K J٢ א אK J٣ א אK J٤ K א א J٥-٧٨ -
79 ÐÛa K ٣٠٠٠ א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א F א E א א א א א א א א א א א א אJ ٢٠٠٠ ٣٠٠٠ W א א א א א E١F K א א א א א J١ E٢F K ٢٠٥٠ א א א א J٢ E٣F K ٣٠٠٠ א א א א א J٣ E٤F K א J٤ E א F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W K א א א א א J١ K א א א א J٢ K E א א א א א F א א J٣ K א א J٤ K א א א J٥ (2) (3) (4) (1) -٧٩ -
80 K א א א E١F א א K ٢٠٢٥ א א א א א א א א א אE F J١ K א א א א א א א WE א K א א א א א א K K א א א א א KK א א א K א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א K א א J٢ K א א א א א א אK K א K א א K א K א א א א א א א א J٣ א K א א א א א K K א א א א K א א א אK אK K א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א אK K א א א K א K א א K א א א W א א J٤ א א א K -٨٠ -
81 א א א א א א א K א א K א א א א א א א א א K א K א א א א א א אK ١٠{٠٠٠ א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K ١٠ א K א א א א א א א א? א א? א א א? K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א K -٨١ -
82 א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א ٢٠٥٠ K א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א K ٢٠٥٠-٨٢ -
83 א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א אK א א א א א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W K א ٥٠ א ١٠ ٣٠٠٠ א א א אK K K א א א א א K א א א K K א א א א א א א א א K א א W K א א א א א אK K א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א K א א א א א א א א א W K א E ٣٠٠٠ א -٨٣ -
84 א א ٢٠١٠ ٢١٠٠ א K א א -٨٤ - א א א א א א א W א א א א F א K E א א אK K א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א W א א א K K א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א אK K א א א א K א K א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א W א א אK א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א K א א א א א א K א א א E א א אF א א
85 א א א א K א א K א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א J١ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א E א א אF א א א א א א א J٢ א _ א א א א _ א אK א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K K א K E א א א F א א א א א E א א אF א א א א E א א א F א א W K א א א א W K א א א א W K א א א א א W K א א א א -٨٥ -
86 א א ٢٠١٥ ٢٠٠٠ ٢٠١٦ א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א W א א א א א W א א א א W א א א א K א א W א א א אK א א א א א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א? א א? א א? א? א א K א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א אK א א W KKK א א א W KKK א א א W KK א א א א א א א F א א א א W K א א א W K א א א W א א א W K א א א א -٨٦ -
87 א א ٢٠٢٠ K٢٠٩٦ א א א ٢٠٠٥ א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א אW א א W א א א W א א א W א א א א א א א E א F א E א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א K א א KKK א א א KKK K א א א KK א א KK א א KK א א -٨٧ -
88 א א א א א א א E ٢٠٠٥F א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א אK K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E א אF א א WK א א KK א א W א א KK א א W א K א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א K א א א א K א א F א E א א K א א א א א W א א א א W א א א א א W א א KKK K א א K א א W WBizworld א א א א א א א W א א א K א F א א א E K א א א א א א W א א K E א א F א א K א א א -٨٨ -
89 א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א KK א א אF אE א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א K א א א א א א א א K א א K א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א W The Pangloss F EScenario א א א א א W א W The Pandora Scenario א א א א K א א K א א א W The Jeffersonian WScenario אF K א א אE א א אK א א א א א א א א E١F א W א א א א א א א א א א W K א א א א א א א א א א אK K א E א F א -٨٩ -
90 א א א F א E אK K א א א K א א א א א א א אW K א E K א א א E K א א א א E א א א א א אK K א א א א א א א א אK א א א א אK א א א א אK K ٢٠٥٠ א א א א W א א א א א א אK א א א אK א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א E א F א K א א K א א א א א א א א א א K E א F א א א א א א א אK -٩٠ -
91 א E א F א א א א א א K K ٣٠٠٠ א א W א א א א א א א אK K א א E א F א K א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א K K א א W א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א K א א א א א אF א אF אKE -٩١ -
92 KK א א א א E ٢ F א א א א א א א א א א א א א אE F J١ א WE א א K א א א א א K א א א K K א א א א א א א א א K K א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א אKK K א K א א א א W א א J٢ א א א אK K א K א א א K א א א א K א א א א א K א א K א א א א א א K K א K א א א K K א א K א א א א K א א K א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א J٣ K א א אK אא א א -٩٢ -
93 א א ٢٠٢٥ ٢٠٢٠ א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א K א א K א א K א א א K א א א א K א א א א א K K א K א א אK K א א K א א א א א א א א K א K א א א א W א א J٤ א א א K א אK K א א א K א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א K אא א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠-٩٣ -
94 א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K K א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠ K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א אK -٩٤ -
95 א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א א א א K א E ٨٥ J٦٥ F א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א אK K ٣٠٠٠ א א W א א א א א W K א א א א W א אK א א א W K א א א א א W א א אKKKK ٣٠٠٠ א -٩٥ -
96 א א א א א א א א א א א א א E א F א א א K א א א א K E א א אF א א K א א א א א א א א א א א E א אF א א א א א E١F א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א? א? K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א W א א K K א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א K א אF K? Third-Sector א א א K Ecotopia א א א א א K K א א א א א WK א א KK א א א א א א אK א א W א א א א (١) א א א א א א א א א W א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א -٩٦ -
97 א א א א א א א א א W א א א K א א א א K א א א W א א א א א א א א אK א א אK ٢٠٠٨ א א א א K א א א K א א K א א א א א א א W א א א K א א W א K א א W א א K א א א א א א א א א W א א א K א K א א א א K א א W א א אK א א א א א א E٢F א W א א א א א א א א א א א W K א א א א E א F א א א א א א א K א א א א א K א א א אK -٩٧ -
98 א א א א א אK K ٢٠٥٠ א א א א W K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א אK K ٣٠٠٠ א א W K א א K א א W א א א א א א א א א אK K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K -٩٨ -
99 KKK א א E ٣ F א א א א א א א א א E א אE F J١ א WE א א א א א K א א א א K א א א K א א א E K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א K א א א K א א א אE K א א א א א א א E א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K אא א א א א א א א א א K ٢٠٠٠ K א א א א א E א א א א א K א א א א K א -٩٩ -
100 א א א א א א א א א א א E K א א J٢ K א א א א א א E אK K א א א א א א K KK א א א א K א א א אE א א K א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א א KK א א א ٢٠٢٥ א א א E E F K א E E F א א E K א K א א א א J٣ א K א א א א א K א K א א א א E א א א אE K א א א K א א א K K א א א א K א א א E K א א א א K א E K א א א א -١٠٠ -
101 א א א א א א א א א E K א K א א א E א א א א א א K א א א K א א K א K א א א א א אE W א א J٤ א א א K א א א K א J١ א א א J٢ א א אK K א א א א J٣ K א א א E K א א א א K א א א א J٤ K א E K E F J٥ א אK א א א א א א E א א א K J٦ א א א א א J٧ א א א א א א א אK ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א K א א א א א א J٨ א א K א א א א א J٩ א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K J١٠-١٠١ -
102 א א א א א א א K א א E א א א E א F א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א E א א E F א א E א א א א K א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א א א K K א א א א E K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א -١٠٢ -
103 א א א א א א א א א א J١١ א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א J١٢ א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א J١٣ א א א א א K? א? א א J١٤ א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א J١٥ א א א א K א א J١٦ א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א J١٧ K א א א א J١٨ א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א J١٩ א K א א א א ٢٠٥٠ K א א א א J٢٠ א א K א א א J٢١ א א א א K א א א א א -٢٢ א א א א א א א א א K -١٠٣ -
104 א א א א א א א א א א א א א א J٢٣ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א J٢٤ K א א א א א א א J٢٥ א א א א א א K א א א א J٢٦ K א א א א א J٢٧ K א א א א א א א J٢٨ א א א K א א א J٢٩ א א K א א א א א J٣٠ א א א א א א א א K א א א J٣١ א א א א א א א K א א א J٣٢ א א א א ٢٠٥٠ K א KK א א א א J٣٣ א א א א K א א א א J٣٤ א K א א א א א א J٣٥ K א א א K א א א E K א? א א? א א א -١٠٤ -
105 א א א K א E א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א E K א א א א א א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א E E F K א א א אE א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א E א א E K א א K א א א א א א K א א K א א א אE א א א K א א א א א א K א א W K ٣٠٠٠ א א א א אK ٢٠٥٠ ٣٠٠٠ א -١٠٥ -
106 א א ٢٠٠٠ א K א א א E K א א א א K א E א E א א א E א א א א א W K K א א א א א E K א א א K א א א א K א א א אE K א א א א א א א א K K א א א E K א א K א א א E F K א E K א E א א א אK K א א E E F א א E K א א K א א א אE א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K K א א א E K א א א א א K א E K א E א א W אK א א א W K א א ٣٠٠٠ א -١٠٦ -
107 א א א א א א א א W א א E K א א א א K א א א א א א E K א א א א א א א א א א K א K א א א אE K א א א א א א א א א K א K א א א א א א א א א אK K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א E K K א E K א א א א K א E K א א W א א א E א א א K K א א א א E א א א K א א א א א א K ٣٠٠٠ א -١٠٧ -
108 אF א א א א א א א K א א א אE א א W א א א א K K א א א א א K K א א א E K K א E K K א E K א א א א א א א W א א K E אF א א K א א א א א W K א א א KKK א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א W K א א א א א א א א א א א א E א F K א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א K E F KKK א א א E א א F א א א E א F א א K ٣٠٠٠ א א א E א א -١٠٨ -
109 א א א א א א א ٢٠٢٥ א א א א א א א א K K ٢٠٢٥ א א א א א א א א א א א K א א K א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א E א א אF א א E א F א א א א א א א K א א א א א E٣F א א א א א א א א א א W א א א W K א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א אK א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א אK K א א א א א א א א -١٠٩ -
110 א א א א א א א א K K ٢٠٥٠ א א א א W א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א אK א א א א א E א F א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א אK K א א א א K? א א?? א א? א א א א א א א א א אK K א א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א אF א E K א KE א F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K -١١٠ -
111 K ٣٠٠٠ א א W א א E א א א F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K W א א K א א E K א א E K א א א א E K א א א א E K א א א E K א א E א א א א א א א K K א א W א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א F אKE -١١١ -
112 KKK א א E ٤ F א א א א א א א J ٣٠ ٤٥ א E א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א K K אE א א א א K K א א א אE F J١ א WE א א א K K א E K א א א K א א K א א א K K א א א K א א E K א א J٢ א א א א K אא א א א א א א K א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א E א א א K א א א J٣ א א א א K א א K א א א K א א אE K א -١١٢ -
113 א א ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א א E K א א א א K K ٥٠ א א אE K א א א E E F K א E א א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א E E F א E E F א א א א W א א J٤ א א א K א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠-١١٣ -
114 א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א א EGPDF א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א?ICEAC? א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א WSO א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א ٢٠٥٠-١١٤ -
115 א א א א א א א א E K א א E א א W K ٣٠٠٠ א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א K א E א א א א א K K א א א W א א א K א א א א א E K א א א א E א א א א א א א K א א א E א א W אK א א א W א א K ٣٠٠٠ א א א א א E F א א א א א F א א K E א E K א א א K א א א א א א א W K א א א א א E א E Kא א א א א א א א א א א W KKKK א א א א K א E K -١١٥ -
116 א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א E א אF א א א א א א א E٤F א א א א א א א א א א W א א א W א א א א א א K א א א K א א א א א א א אK א א א אK K א א א א א א K ٢٠٥٠ א א א א W א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א -١١٦ -
117 K ٣٠٠٠ א א W א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א K א א א E א F א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א א K א K א א W א א א א א א א א F א א א א א א א א א אK E -١١٧ -
118 KKK א א E ٥ F א א א א א א א א אE א אE F J١ K א א א א WE א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א E א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א ٢٠٢٠ א K א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א א א E E F א אE K א א א K א א א א K א א E א א א א K K א א E K א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א J٢ א א א אK אא א א K א -١١٨ -
119 א א א א א א א K א א אE א א א J٣ א א K א K א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א K א א א א א K א א K א א א א א K K א א K א א א E K א א K א א א K א א E K א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K K א א אא א א K א א אE W א א J٤ K א א א א א א K K K א א א א E א א א א K K א א E K א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א א K K א א א -١١٩ -
120 א א א א א א א K א א אE א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א E א א א א א K א א א א K א א אE א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠ K א K א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א F א E א א א א א א א א K K א א E K -١٢٠ -
121 א א א א א א א א א א K א א אE א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א E KE F K א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K -١٢١ -
122 א א א K א א אE א א E K א א E K א א א K K א א אE א א א א א K K א א א א E א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א K א א א א K א K א א E KE F K א א אE K א א E K K א א E K א א W K ٣٠٠٠ א א א W K א א א א א W אK א א א W א אK K א א אE א א W א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א E א א א א K א א E א א א א אK EK ٣٠٠٠ א -١٢٢ -
123 א א א א א א א K א א אE K א א E K K א א E K א א W א KKKK א א ٣٠٠٠ א K א א אE א א א א א K א א א א א א?א א? א א K א א E K K א א E K א א א א K א א K א א א א א א א א E٥F א א א א א א א א א א W א א א W א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א E א F א K א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א -١٢٣ -
124 א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א K ٢٠٥٠ א א א א W א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K ٣٠٠٠ א א W K א א E אF א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א אK K א א W א א א א א א א א אK -١٢٤ -
125 K א א W א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א K١ א א K٢ א א א W א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א J١ א א א א א ٣٠٠٠ א א א א א א א א א א א K E ٤ FK א א א א א J٢ א א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠ א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אE ١ F K -١٢٥ -
126 א א א א א א J٣ א א א א א א W K א א J K א א J K א א J K א א א א א J א א א א J א K א א א א J٤ א א א א א W א א ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א J٣٦ א א א א א א א א א א א E٣ F K א א א W א א א א א א J٥ א א א א א א א א א א א W ٢٠٥٠ K א א א א א J K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K -١٢٦ -
127 א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א J١ א א ٢٠٥٠ א א א FK א א א א א א א א E٣ א א א J٢ א א א א א א א א א א א א ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E٣ FK א א א א J٣ ٢٠٥٠ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E ٣ F K א א א א א א א א J٤ א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א K? א א א א א א א א א?ICEAC K א K א א א א -١٢٧ -
128 א א א א א א E٤ F א א א א א J٦ א א א א א ٢٠٥٠ א א א W א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א J٦ W א א א א אE٣ F K א א א K א אK K א א א א א א א א E٣ F K א א א א א א א א א א א J٧ א א א W K א א א J٣٧-١٢٨ -
129 א א א א א א א א א א K א א א K א א א א א א אE٣ F K J٣٨ J٣٩ J٤٠ א א ٣٠٠٠ א א א א J٨ א א א א W W א א E F א E א א א א א F א א א W K א א א E א F א א א א א א א K א K א א א א K א א א א א א א K א א א א א K א K א א א K א W ٢٠٥٠ א א E F א א א א א E א א F W א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א. א -١٢٩ -
130 א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א K K א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א K א א K א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א K א אK א א א א א א א א K א K ٣٠٠٠ א E F -١٣٠ -
131 E א א א א א א א א א F א א א א W א א אK א א א א א א א K א K א א א א א א א א K א א אK K א א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א אK K א א א א K א א א א א א W א E F א א E א א א א F W א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א K -١٣١ -
132 א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK K א א א א א א -١٣٢ -
133 א א א J٩ א א א W א א א א א א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א. א א א א א א א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK -١٣٣ -
134 א א א א א א א א א א א K א א אF א א א א א א א א א א א א E א א א א א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א א א. א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א K א א א א א א א -١٣٤ -
135 W א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א E ٢٠٠٤ ٢٠٠٠F ١٤٢٥L١٤٢٤ ١٤٢١L١٤٢٠z א א א א א E א א F א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א W KE א א א F K א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א K E א א א א א F א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א א K א א א א?? א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א -١٣٥ -
136 א א אK K١ א א א א א א א אF א א א א א א א א E א א א א א א ٠ א א E ٢٠٠٤ ٢٠٠٠F ١٤٢٥L١٤٢٤ ١٤٢١L١٤٢٠z א א א א א F א א E א א K ١{٥ א א ٦{٥ ٢٠٠٣ א א א א א אK ٣٥ ٢٠ KK א א א א Software א ٠ א א א א א ٠ א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א א א KK א א א א א א א K א א א א -١٣٦ -
137 K א א א J٢ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א E ٢٠٠٤ ٢٠٠٠F ١٤٢٥L١٤٢٤ ١٤٢١L١٤٢٠z K א א א א א אK K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K E א F א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א?א? א א. א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א. א א -١٣٧ -
138 א א J٣ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א F א E ٣{٧ אK א א א א א F א א א ٢٧٠ ١٤٢٣. א K E ٥٠ א K א א א א א E ٢٠٠٤ ٢٠٠٠F ١٤٢٥L١٤٢٤ ١٤٢١L١٤٢٠z ٠ א א א א א א א א F א E אK K א א א א א א אK א א אK א א E א F א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א ٠ א א א א א א א א א א א א א K E א F א א א א א א א. א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א. א -١٣٨ -
139 א א J٤ א א א א א א א א א א א א F א א א א א E א א אJ?? W א א א א א K א א א J١ J٢ K Virtual Education Environment א א E ٢٠٠٤ ٢٠٠٠F ١٤٢٥L١٤٢٤ ١٤٢١L١٤٢٠z K J٣ אK Telnet J٤ K On Line א א J٥ F א א J٦ K EVOD K J٧ K J٨ ٠ א J٩ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א ٠ א א א א א א א א א -١٣٩ -
140 א א א א E ٢٠٠٤ ٢٠٠٠F ١٤٢٥L١٤٢٤ ١٤٢١L١٤٢٠z א א א א א א א א א J٥ א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א. א א א א א א. א א א. א. א א א א א א א א א א. א א א א א. א א א א א א א א א. א א א א א. א א א א א א א א א א K א -١٤٠ -
141 W E١F E ١٤٢٤ F א א א G K א א א א א א E F א א K א א א א F א א א א א א א אK E א א א א F א א א א א א אK E F E א F א א א א KK E א א א א W א א KK א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א G W א א E F K א א L K א K א א א א א K א א א K א א א K א א K א א א K א א א א K א E١F -١٤١ -
142 W א א א E F K א א א א K א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א K א א K א א א L א א א E F K א א א א א א א K א א א א. א K א א E א א א F א א א K K א א א W א א א E F K א א א א א א א א א F א א א א K אK E K א א K א א א א K א א א א K א א א א א א א -١٤٢ -
143 W א א א E F K א א א K א א א K א א א א א א א K א א K א א א א K א א א W א א E F א א א א א K א א K K א א K א א א א E א א F א W א א E F K א א K א א א K א א א K א K א א א א א א K א א א א K W א א E F K א א א K א א א K א א א א א -١٤٣ -
144 K א א א א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א K K א א א K א L א א א א K א א -١٤٤ -
145 א W א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א K E١F א א א א א א א K א א א K א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א W W א א א E א א א א א א ٠ א א א א א א א E א א א א א א א א ٠ א א א א א E K א א א K א א א א א E א א א א א א E א א ٠ א א W א א א א א א א א K א א א (١) -١٤٥ -
146 א א א א א א א א א E א א א ٠ W א א א א א G.١ א א א א W א א א א א א K J א א א א א א J א K ٢. א א א אW א א א J א א א א א א א J א א א א א א א אF א א E DVD F א א א א ECD א א E VR F א א א E VOD F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K W א א א א א.٣ א א א א K J K א א א א א J א א א W א א א א א א א W א א א E٢٠٠٠F א א א א J א א א E F א K -١٤٦ -
147 א א א א א א א א א J א א א א א א K א א א א J א א א J א א א א א א א א K א א א א א W א א E ٢٠٠١F א א א א א א א א א א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א אJ ٣٣٢ ٣٣٤ א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א E CD-ROM F א א א א א א א א א א א א א א א K -١٤٧ -
148 א א א א W א א א א א א א א א א K א א א W א א א א א א א א א א א א K א א א א א א K א א א א א אK א א א א א א א א א אK א א א א א א א אK K א א א א א K١ K٢ K٣ K٤ K٥ K٦-١٤٨ -
149 א א K K א א K K١ K ٢٠٠٠ ١٤٢٠ ٢ א א א א א א א K א K א K٢ K ٧ ١ ١٤١٧ א א W א א א א א K K٣ K ١٩٩٦ א א א א א אF ٢٠٢٠ א א א K א א K٤ א ٢٠٢٠ א? ٢٠٢٠ א אKE ١٩٩٨ F E ٢ F? ٢٠٢٠ א א א K א א K٥ KE ١٩٩٨ F E ٤ F א א ٢٠٢٠ א א א א א K K٦ E١٧F א א א K א א א א א אK ١٤١٨ E١F א E١٣F א א א K א K K٧ K ١٩٩١ E١٤٤F א א א א א K K٨ K K E א F א א א א K א א א K٩ א א א א א א א K ١٩٩٨ ١٤١٩ א א א א א F א א א K א K١٠ א W K E א א א א א א K ١٩٩٨ א K?? א א K אK١١ א א א אK ١ K ١٤١٢-١٤٩ -
150 א א א א א K א K١٢ K ١٩٨٨ א א א א א K א א א K א K١٣ K ١٩٩٩ א א א אK א א א K א K L א אK١٤ אK ١٤١٢ ٢ א K א א א א K١٥ K ١٤٢٠ א א א א א K א א א K א א K١٦ K ١٩٩٠ א א K W א א K א א K١٧ K ١٩٩١ E٢F א E١١F א K א W א א א K א א K١٨ K ١٩٩٨ L E٥٧F א א א K א א א א א K א א K١٩ K ١٤١٨ E١F א E١٧F א K ٢٠٠١ א א K א א א א K א K٢٠ א א א א K א א K אK٢١ K ١ K ١٩٩٩ K٢٢ א א K א? ٢٠٢٠ K E ١ F א ١٩٩٨ א ٢٠٢٠ א א? א א א K٢٣ א א א א א א א ١٩٩٣ ١٦٢٧ F K E K٢٤ א א? ٢٠٠٠ א א א א א א א א א א א K ١٩٩٨-١٥٠ -
151 E٦٦F א K K א א א א K K٢٥ ١٩٩٩ K E F א א K א K٢٦ א א א ٢٠٠٠ א K א א K א אK٢٧ K ١٩٨٦ K ١٣٩٩ א א א K א א אK K٢٨ א א א א?K א א א K٢٩ א א א א ٢٠٢٠? א ٢٠٠٠ א אK E١F א א א א א?K א א א K٣٠ א א א א ٢٠٢٠? א ٢٠٠٠ א אK E ٢F K٣١ א א א?K א א א א? א א א א א ٢٠٢٠ KE٣F א א ٢٠٠٠ א א K א א א W א א א K K٣٢ K ١٤١٨ E١F א E١٧F א K٣٣ א א אK א א א א א K ١ ١٤٠٧ א א K K א א א א א W א W K٣٤ א א א E١٧F אK ١٤١٨ E١F -١٥١ -
152 1. Abdallah, Ismail S., "Development of Egypt", originally written in 1977 for the futures study: interfutures, republished in 1994 in: I 'Egypt Contemporaine, Nos. 435 & 436, Jan/April AL-Hazzaa Abdulaziz, M. ``Scenario Projections for Women in Saudi Arabia : Their Changing Status, Education and Employment Opportunities By The Year 2010" University of Minncsota (ph.d Dissertation) Dahle, Kjell, "50 Key Works: A Beginner's Guide to the Futures Literature" in: Slaughter Richard (ed), New Thinking for a New Millennium, Routledge, London and New York, Degreens, Kenyon (The Adaptive Organization) John, Wiley and Sin Delp,P,Systems Tools For Project Planning (1977) 6. Garoetsan, Betly. L (The Effect of Scenario Presentation on College of Education students' Knowledge and Attitudes About Rape) University of Arkansas (ph. D Dissertation) Godet, M., "Introduction to La Prospective - Seven Key Ideas and One Scenario Method", Futures, Vol. 18. No. 2, April 1986, PP Keegan, Mark.D (Design and Effects of Scenario Educational Software) Columbia University Teachers College (ph. D Dissertation) Leekley, Edward. H (A Scenario Generator for Public Policy and Program Implementation) Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State university (ph.d Dissertation) May, Graham, The Future is Ours, Praegger Studies on the 21 st Century, Praegger, Westport, Connecticut, Reibnitz,U.V, Scenario Techniques, McGraw.Hill Book Com Hamburg Schwartz,P.Scenario, in Kurian.G.T.andMolitor,G.T.(eds),Encyclopedia of thefurure,- Vol.2,Simon and Schuster Macmillann, NewYork, Shane,Harolds; Educational Sigificance of thefuture,(bloomington,indiana,phideltakappa,1973) 14. Slaughter,R,Futures tools snd Techniques,2ed. The Future study Center, Victoria 3122 Austrialia, Wilson, Ian( scenario ) in Jip.F.( Hand book of Future Research) Green wood publisking, Longman Group Ltd,Second This edition 1995, Printed in Great Britain by Clays Ltd. 2. Websters, New English Dictionary ( Pocket Edition), Librairie DULiban,Beirut ١٥٢ -
FAST! Tajweed Intensive Workshop! Rules of Noon Sakinah & Tanween Part 1
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