Rogue Counrty and Potential Cooperation: the United States and Sudan and Feasible Economic Partnership
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1 Al-Neelain University From the SelectedWorks of Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Spring April 18, 2009 Rogue Counrty and Potential Cooperation: the United States and Sudan and Feasible Economic Partnership Professor Issam A.W. Mohamed Available at:
2 Rogue Counrty and Potential Cooperation: the United States and Sudan and Feasible Economic Partnership Professor Dr. Issam A.W. Mohamed Abstract The United States declared Sudan as a rogue country in 1995 due to many political considerations. It has imposed many economic and political sanctions against it since that time which represented hindrance to development and resulted in economic crises. Oil explorations started long time by Total Oil Company and resumed by Chevron that halted her activities in Sudan after the flaring of the civil war between the Northern and Southern parts of the country. That work was resumed in 1996 by Chinese companies and was crowned by success and commercial production in Although the economic situations of Sudan improved by oil revenues but the internal conflicted expanded by the burst out of Darfur crisis (2003), Blue Nile and South Kordofan regions mutinies and Easter Region's disturbed public turmoil. The economic sectors, agriculture and industry deteriorated in their performance and even with the country's huge economic potentials development seemed to stand still. Even, there were strong signs of negative outputs. The general economic consensus was that the country ultimately needs economic and political reforms. In the theory I present here, Sudan needs a big brother and guidance to rebuild its economy and restructure the system of governance. Thereby, I propose that the United States can perform that role in partnership which will be paying for both considering the necessity and impotence of the country's geopolitical position and economic potentials. 1. Abstract اا" ا! د اة ا زة ا ادا ا اول &% ادان اا" ا! د, اة ا+* ة ا ادا ا اج ا! د ادا% &% ا! د ا%...13 "+3.7 ا ا 7 ر 5+ ا 2 ذج Professor of Economics, Alneelain University, Khartoum-Sudan. P.O. Box issamawmohamed@hotmail.com
3 9. ا 2 01 وا 5 ت اا: ;;" ا;; 7 ل &;;% 3+;;" اا;;" ا! ;;د ا;;ة ا;;% A;;@ أن 3<;;" ;;ر ;;ة = ;;د ا;;دا% &;;% ا:>;;.JK 7" ا! د ا %! ا G ق إ C Bة ا= ت ا! د ادا ا أو! : Bة ا= ت ا! د ادا ا : Establishment of the Sudanese American Economic Relationship Y Bت ا: X ا % + إ& &اغ H;" ;ن أV ; أھ;اف اRS ;ا Q3 ا ; H ;ة ا;ى ا; Kي 3 \ Z &% إR ا Q3 ا@ ا% ا ;% ا;: (3+;_ ا A ا; اS ; ھ; اSرھ;ب ا;% إزا; أR ;+ ار ا" و 9R3 cم اق ا+ وا Qرة ا+ة وا" 3+;_ C;a ا 2 ; و+رH ; ا*; ر`; X ;9 3+;_ (1) ا A ا اS و eدي dرھب). وظ" ا!ھم ا % &% Hدئ ا ا &% G2; ا;ق اوh;R ا*; g R ب RR: و 1a دة 3 +ول &> " اى &;ض ھ 2 >; C;a ا; Y وإk ;ت *ذھ; ;@ 7 ;=ل ا; G ة ا\; 2 ت ;@ ا;ن ا;@ 2;m 2;K A;@ J3 Ca ا G2. و Y A3@ ا!ت ا+;ة H ;ة 3;J a;@ ا*`; ا\; 2 ت 2;m (2;K ا=دي Hأت أ 3 رك أھ G2 ق إ&. + أر إ> ا o `+ أX: q أ 3 رك أھ ق إ& وأن رؤ; إR ;ا Q3 > +; ا;دان ;ا 7 " >; a ;=ن اول: اRS ;ا Q3 Q3 ه إ& H;* a; وا<;%: ا\ GG ;ت ا ; V ;ل ا;ق اوh;R. و>;ف ا+;ل ا ;% ا Q ; ;رة اS & إ C 3+_ ھ&@ ر أو>: اR s =ل ارة اS & ا د وھ 3;X اSد;ج ا! ;دي ا;% أو اا ا! د و k >: ا c2 ا 2 ا ا% 3 ى أن أ 2 > a ا+ر <" g ا;ر ا R ;+, ا واSرھب وا\رات وا t و,ھ. و وردت اRS ا Q3 +ور k=k &% " 9 إ& ھ%: 2 وأ Hk. Q.1 ا Ca دول < %& ارة "> : 2 ب إ& 2. أھ ا 2 _ 9 ا+*ء اورو hr &% ا 2 ا aت وإدارة aت ا=م &% J3 اان اول ادرة Ca ا 5S =ح وا c2 ت اS ا* a wت او Q ا\ط ا H ة +ود.). Kا اq<Q3 ا!;ت ا+;ة ا ; H; ا>;ء ا+;ب ا; ا<; ( 1945 م) إ; C وراk ; ا 2 *;ذ ا s H ;% &;% إ&; وآ 7 =ل ات وا= ت 9 ا 2 \} ا R و Y A@ ا;دان H ;ا a;@ ھ; Kا ا:; X. a; V;{ ا ;ن إ C إ a= ت 9 ادان K2 ا\ 2 ت &% إطر Y<a ;h *;ذھY G2; &;% ;ق إ&; وا;ن اS &;%. &;% ا+;ل +; إ&; وآR ; ا CG;R a ;م 2;K 1948 م. و ;ن ا* A ; H ;أت ; ; و 3 oh ارا Rت إ; C أن أ 7> JK; ھ; ;2 ا; aات ا;وط H ;وط H ;أت V;@ ;RR ا!;ت ا+;ة ا ; &;% ;2 ; aات Ya;3 C;a ا; aات 3;J وط H وط H:} RR ;ار Q; ا;@ ا;% ا ;% a ;م 1951 م. 3;% ا!ر 3 طت ا A وا R ا 1 H@ ا!ت ا+ة واول ھKه ا aات و& وط ا: 1. ا!اط Ca اول ا*ة إ 3 ع RR ا د 3 >ف إ C RR 9Q3 اق ا+. 9Q3 2. او aت ا\ 5 و: Kب ا! R <رات ا\ 5 وا: إ:اء ا V=5Sت ا g t ا 7 =ت ا+. 4. اV ام Vق اS ن. 3 م =V أن ا>ف ا RR % ا Kي 3% إ X ا!ت ا+ة ا وراء J3 اوط ھ ا دي } &;% } إR ا Q3 > ا R رات Ca >2 اول ا > Kه ا aات 23 و X o;h ا; V <@. و 3 ; 3 h اھ;اف أھ; Y <;q ا% 3% إ> اول ا &% 3> ن ا! دي ول ا 2 Hوا& 9 واa رات RR وAa 3Y ان ا! دي ول ا " ا 3 ات &% أ aب أن & A ا ا% YA+3 J3 ا aات Ca ا, Y 3;" أ: 2 ; ;در C;a ا+ب ا ا< ا ر ا Q 9 ا;و% g;h ورة 23; ا;ول ا 2 ; H+;> ا+. و:ءت Hا ا= ت ا! د ا;دا ا ; وذ; J 2a; اq;*3 ا+ A ;ن ا;دا درھ Ya ف H0 ا ا Ksا 1 ا دان aم 1958 م : Ca وا أ دى ا 3 *ق ا+ ادا وا aم 1958 م إ C 3 &ت `\ ;@ ا; وا; _ ا ;% ;دان a; ; ف H0 ا ا Ksا 1 ا ذو اوط اة وا% q2g3 &ة Rح رھ أر 9H وk=k ;@ a; وH ; & 1 ة اوح H@ 6 %7 &;% ا; 2. ا;" H;0 ا; ا ;% ;دان ا;وف H;0 ا; ا\;ص C;a ار ا% وH 0 ا ا Ksا 1. >;ف H;0 ار; ا;% إ; C 3;& ا 2 ; ا: 2 ;% H0 ھ: HQ@.2 (1) 5 =ح ا@ a ا او ا= ت ادا ا (ا\طم: ا ا% d ج اaS =% ط ). 2
4 وا 2 ; ا RR ; و ; 3; ھ; Kا اS ;ج ag ;ت &;% ا 9 ا GR 75 اR 3A@ ادان A% +A ا 0 Hد ووط 5;. أ; H;0 ا; ا Ksا 1 ; &<;" &;% ;ت &;اo1 ا; 9 ارا a ; ا ; H;" ا ا+ ادا Yk إ اض 1a ھKه ا;ت أو 2+>; d *;ق C;a أ,;اض أ 7 ;ى أو أن 3 ;د H>; ا!;ت ا+ة أ,ا`> &% ادان وذ J و& ن 23 و aة ا Qرة ارا a ا ا;وف Y;RH ا;ن ا;م (1) 480 أو ا Ksاء H" ا=م. و=V أن ا 7 " ا % = ت ا! د 9 ادان ن a أھY, Kا 1 ; R; إR ا Q3 وھ% ا 9 إدراك ا!ت ا+ة أن ادان ھ أV ; ا;ول ا 2 Q ; K;sاء. ; A ;ن ا;} وراء ذ; J ھ أن أ ; 3;J &;اo1 `;\ ;@ ا 2 Q ;ت ا Ksا 1 ;! a دھ; C;a ا; Ya اراa ;% و c ;م ا;ارع ا\; اا R. و 3 ا!ت ا+ة C;a c ;م ا;ارع ا\; ;7w V; A; ا*د; &;% ا! ;د ا\; h وأ <ھ 3. و G3 ر ھKا ا A ارا a اR HQ 2 ا+د k Q!ت &% أ 7 ا! د ا% ا % واز > Q ا!ر 3 *ع ام &% ت ا وام ا 2A :% وا* %2 وا 3 ع ا Rاق اط 2 وا;. و Y H3 ا Ksاء ا=زم ˆ R ة ا ھ ا>ف ا %1 H" أ 5 ا; H ا Q ;ري ھ; ;ر ا Q2 ;ح H;" أ 5 ; اR \ام اارد ا G وا a2 وا; Kور ا> 2Q ; و&;_ *;ھ Y ا ;د 2; 2 *;ت ا< H ; وا s ;ة وا!د 7 ;ر وا! R ;<ر وا*;ت ا<; C ا;" اS ;ج وأR ;;ر ا;ق ود a >; ھ;% ا;% 3<;;" أھ; ;ة &;% ز;دة اS ;;ج واS : ارا a ا Rاء ;@ ا V2 ; ا A ; أو ا A *;. :;q ھ; Kه ا; R ا!;ت ا+;ة ا ; أ ; H *اo1 X2 \` 57 إج R إR ا Q3 X+` ا Qول. 9 %& ا Y Ksاء 02 ر إج ا!ت ا+ة ا وادان H XQ2 ا Y ( ) (1000 ط@ ى) اS ج ان ا Y ا!ت ا+ة ا ادان ار: ا 2 ة c2 ا, K وارا a (FAO) ا Q اول رو 2000 م. اR ت 3 &ت ا _ وا ا % دان a ا ا Ksا 1 CV 3 ;ر إa ;=ن ا;دان ;RR ا! a ;د C;a ا Kات aم 1989 م. & Aن > Kه ا ا ا k Ca ا! د ادا% وذ J ;sh ;h ا! R ;>=ك ا;دا% وX;<:3 + ا a@ H! ا Kرة وا ا%ء ا Kي أ`ف أa ء Ca ا! د ادا%. ا! د ذات ا *ة (91/ /99 م) وا s ات ا Aن Hد ا Hدان اR >=ك a= ا 032 ا+% ا! R اد ا! R >=ك ا Aن اS ج ا A % اS :% H 2 ر ا A ا 2 ا A ا> Aن X4 X3 X1 Y / /91 93/92 94/93 95/94 96/95 97/96 98/97 99/ /99 ار: ا Q >ز ا ي Vd ء ادا% :اول \*. ا Qول إ% أن ا! R >=ك ا A % &% ادان &% 3;a ; و JK; اR ; Y;QV ا; Aن H =V ا> &% 3 ا وا`. أ اS ج ا A % & ظ" Bر:+ H;@ ا;دة وا!\*;ض ط;ال &;ة اراR ; و ى ذ J إ C aم اR ار ا Rت ا! د وا 2 H ;دان 7 ;=ل 3;J ا*;ة &;`SH إ; C 3 +;ل ا;دان (1) R ا@ a ا+% ا ا Ksا 1 وا! د ادا%. ا\طم: ارا Rت وا+ث اS 1 دور 1999). 39 3
5 إ C 3 ط@ ا H! ا &% ھKه ا*ة ن > Kا ا+ل ا k Ca إج ا; &;% ا;ر 9 او;. a;% ا+%. ا*% واS ج ا! R >=ك H@ ا* Qة Gs أن ن ا! Q3 ه ا s } % اR اد ا " + اا Ca ا 2 + ا%: ا s ات ھKه H@ H= ا a> + ذ J Q ي ا+ار د * 201 ا+" ا! د ذات ا *ة ( 91/ /99 م) ا &% ادان H s ات اR >=ك ت a= ا+ار د + ا! R >=ك ا Aن ا> Aن اS ج ا A % ا 032 ا+% اS :% ا! R اد ا A % X4 X3 X2 X1 Y ا / / / / / / / / / /99 Column 5 Column 4 Column Column Column Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Eeeor 10 Observations ANOVA Significance F F MS SS Df E E Regression 7.92 E E Residual 3023 E Total Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Upper Lower Upper Lower P- Standard t Stat. 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% Value Error Coefficient Intercept X X X X4 H أن در: ا! V A" ا 2 2Hذج ھ;% واV ; &; Œن 5;+ ا; ا! V ; "R.Square" وا s ; 3; 0.89 إ C 5+ ا 2 ذج وذ J اا V ا+. و H أن ا! R >=ك (Y) <" ا s ا 9H & Œن 3* ا Y H *>م ا!ر 3 ط 3` ا %3Ž : 1. ا= H@ ا! R >=ك وا Aن ھ% a= طد : %23 أن زدة ا Aن e3 دي إ C زدة ا! R ا. %;2 ; (-) ; qsh.2 أ ا! R >=ك ا A % واS ج ا A ا %<& =a R Aa أن اS ج ا YQV H a@ a: ا! R >=ك ا A % &% ادان. 4
6 3. ا= ا! R >=ك وا 032 ا+% اS :% R; ;Aa a= 3 ;دل (-) 0.61 وھ; Kا 2;% أن اR ;>=ك ا; R} Ca إ:% ا 032 ا+% :;د & Q ;ة H;@ ا;ض وا G ;} C;a ا;! C;Gs3 إ! a;@ kb3 X Hدان ط_ ا! R اد أو ان ا\ر:%. ا\;ص =a ;H ; ;: و ; :;ا 3 ;دل 0.82 ; e ; أن وا! R ;اد ا! R ; ا= q; ;2H.4 ا Aت ا > ار 3 ط ي :ا YQ+H ا! R >=ك ا A % X2. ا;; ذات kb;;3 ;;ي :;;ا C;;a ا s ;; ا;; 9H أن ا s ;;ات 2;;Hذج (R.Square) 3`;; ;; ;;" ا+;; ا! R >=ك و 3 دل 0.88 و 3 د 0.12 ا إ C أk ; ا s ;ات ا;ا 1 وأن ا 2 ; ا A ; =+;ار 2;Hذج ;; :;;دة ا;;ت e ;; :;ة :;;ا };;V أن ;; F) (Significance وا s ;; أ ااV ; ا;;+ وى ات ن ا 2 ا A =+ار, 93 H@ ا* واا V ا+. وe3 اط 9 (Intercept) B;Hن ا+; اد; C! R ;>=ك ا;دا@ ; ;ن R; H ;ار (-) ط;@ &;% ا;م و;ل ذ; J C;a أن اS ;ج ا :a ا! R >=ك ا*% وھ X+;` h;7 "; ا!+;ار (X2) ا; Kي ;دل "; 0.86 ا;ت ا Ksا 1 ; ا ; kb;3 mg;h آ 7 Ca ار 3 *ع ا" ا+ي! R >=ك ا ى ا;دا@. أ; &; ;_ 3:X Ca ا! د ادا% + أ. وg ا mg اا` &% ا Q3 ھت ا Qرة ا\ر: H@ ادان وا!ت ا X2A3 وج ا Rاق ا ; ااR ;. وA;@ ادان إR ا Q3 ا+ة ا G} أن C2 R3 ا= ت ا! د ن ادان ا;ت ا! ;د ; X;Q ;درا C;a ا; 7 ل a ذ J Vوث. ا د & 9 أ ا %&.3 اا" ا! د اة ا زة ا ادا ا Sudanese American partnership direct enforcing factors ا! د@ ا@ إ Vى أھ; Y اا;" ا! ;د ا;ة &;% دY;a ;m ا;دان ; 7 ل &;% اa ر A@ ا ا د ن =ھ 3h ة RŒH ا Q3 ا!ت ا+ة ا! د ھ: ا" اول: إج ا Ksاء و واV ;ا ;@ ا; A =ت ا;% أ 5 ;+ q e;3 رق ا Q ;ت ا; &; 57; ;9 3 ا; ار` V; وإد 7 ;ل o;h ا 2 Q ;ت ا Ksا 1 ; &;% H ;ا 0 ا G ;. و;%3B اھ;م ا;ول ا; a2 ا; ا A ة ARن أن ا; Aن ا;ون H ا; ھR2 ; V;@ &;% &` Ca ا 1 Aن ا Ksاء اR 2 دا إ C c ŒH ج a ا 3 G ; `;@ إR ;ا Q3 > %3B ا إج ا Ksاء H ا aد. و 2H!ت ا+ة ا & Œن إج ا Ksاء Ca ا Y ;@ 7 ;=ل ا;+ YA, KاX;1 &;% V;@ &;% ;%3B إ;ج ا K;sاء &;% ا;دان Q ;ء ;@ X;c ا! ;دي GH ة ا%. وم أن ا! د ادا% ھ ا د اR >= % Ca إج ا+ 5 " ا Ksا 1 = *;ء ا; Kا %3. و<;" ھKا ا; h2 ;@ اS ;ج ;ة ا ;د. و 3 ; ;ة 3+;_ ا! *;ء ا; Kا %3 ;@ اS ;ج ا K;sا %1 اV ; أھ; Y 52a; ا;ة &;% ;@ واR ; ; Vت ;J ا;ة ا*و`;. و V ; أن ا;دان ا V \X ا! د ا %2 A@ أن ارا`% ا+ را a و! s" 2> إ! ا". &% 3 ا 2Q ا 3e ا ا% Ksاء "Q;R C;a أن ادان 9 Hارد زرا a ھ 1 و 3 V ارا`% ا+ را a Vا% ن 84 ھA ر s" V ;ا% 2>; ھ 1 9R ا% إذ 3 ر ;V ارض ا; ا;+ راa ; 69.3 إ A X ن 15.3 ھA ر ; ;J ا;دان ;ارد 1; و&;ة ;ه H>; >; ا 2 ;" وا>;ر ا G ;. ;ن ھA ;ر : >; &;% ا ag ;ت ا* a ; ا R واود واه ا Q &. و } ادان ;@ ;ه ا 2 ;" و&;!3* ; a ;م 1959 م ; ;دل ;ر 18.5 Vا; و A;R H <;وة {A ھ% R %& أ Rان و ر {A %;& وh;R ا;دان. 9;و g;أ (1) ارا a &% ادان.,اض &= ا s ارا`% Vت ` ة. ا Qول ا% Vت ارا`% ا\ &% ارا a Hدان % م Hن ھA ر ع ا! R \ام ا V ا\ &= aم 2000 م ا V ا\ &= aم 2005 م زرا a و زرا a G آ زرا a ا Q ا &% ادان ( ادان +ث وارا Rت) ا A ا R ا G } ار: a X;;H أرا`;;% +;;5 9;; ;H اراa ;; ر;;,;اض C;a ا;;, اR ;;\ام ا;;دان ; Vت ;;` اS ;ج ;<& %;& ;Q ا+ 5 ;" ا Ksا 1 ; وإن q; ھ 2 ;ك o;h ا; 2 ات ا;% 02 را a إ! Xأ Gs3 ا! R >=ك ا*%. (1) ا 2Q ا 3e ا ا% Ksاء أو`ع ا Ksاء &% ادان & 1996 م ص:
7 زرا a وإج ا+ 5 " ارا a ا Ksا 1 ا 1 &% ادان *ة ( 85/ م) ا V wh!ف ا& واS ج wh!ف اط 2 ن ا ا / / / / / / / / / / / /95 اKرة اS ج ا V ا اS ج ا V ا اS ج ا V ار: a <ن إH اھ Y ا ا! د ادا% ط 3 ص: 151 ` ا Qول أa =ه ا; Vت اروa ; واS ;ج ا*;% +5;" ا Ksا 1 ; ا 1 ; H ;دان. أ; ا* Q ;ات ا Ksا 1 ; ا% 3 ض > و 7Ž q &`+> ا Qول ا%: إج ا+ب وا! R >=ك وان ا Ksاء Hدان *ة ( 1985/ م) wh!ف اط 2 ن ا ا YR اS ج ا! R >=ك ان ا Ksاء / / / / / / / / / / / /95 ار: ا 2Q ا 3e ا ا;% K;sاء H ;زارة اراa ; وا Hs ;ت أو`;ع ا K;sاء &;% ا;دان ا\ط;م (اSدارة ا dرد وار}) & 1996 م ص: 13. ا Qول أa =ه: 1. إن أ & Qة, Kا 1 &% ادان q 1985/84 م YR &% وھ ا Y;R ا; Kي ;> &;ة ا Q *;ف وا;+ ا; Kي `ب ادان و Yc اول اS &. وا! R ;>=ك & A ;ن &;% Y;R 1991/90 م 88/87 وھ; ا R ;ن ا; Kان ;>ا اS ;ج H;@ 2. أ ا Q ا A ا<;% ا\*` +ظ &% ا Vت اروa ; K;Hرة وا; وزادت &>; ا; Vت اروa ; sh ;ض +; ا+;ل إ C H0 3 ط@ ا &% ا! ا. ا+;ظ &;% ;h ا s ; Q; 3. ;ى ا Q ; &;% ;ان ا K;sاء H ;دان Q; ا 03;2 a;@ إ;ج واR ;>=ك ا; اR >=ك ادا@ وا+ل + اR >=ك ا H a@ H! ا+ 5 " ا Ksا 1 Kرة وا ھ;; Kا ;; ;;ن a;;@ ا;;" ا! ;;دي اول ا;; Kي Ya;; ;;m ا! ;;د ا;;دا% H;; ة و+* ;;ه ;; 7 ل &;;% أي ;;ا ا د أن ھ 2 ;ك a;= آ 7 ; ;ي ھ; إ;ج ا;ول وھ;% &;% ا 5 ;" ;!23;. أ; ; ا; h*2 ا; 1 C;a ا ا H % dرة a@ ا;ول &;% 5 ;رX3 ا\;م &; ا; o أ>;,; ; 3:;9 إ; C ا A ; ا H ; "G; أو 6
8 ;AH ا 2 ;ر وا; h*2 X;H ; 3 ;th *G" ا% وردت &% ا 2 ص ار\ ا. و ل أH ; 2V*;: ا; h*2 :;" &;% ; (1) a@ آ Hر ا Gم ا Kي ن \م &% ذ J ان &h &% ا Gم H+{ ا h*2 ف ا ا 2 ن أ&). وار 3 h إ ادة ا RR aد ا a2 ت ا:دة &% و >; <;" د H,; :;د ا+ا;ت. و ;ن <; ; ;g_ ا; \:ن +{ a@ آ Hر ا و:د R;1" أR ;د ;X را 1 +; >; 3*; ; ا G ;م. و;د V*; أول ;th ;ول إ; C 2H;;* &;;% 1858 م. وY;;3 H!;; 3 ز&;;" X;;3H &;;% "Edwin Drake" ا A ;;" ا ;;% ا a ;; أدو;;@ در;; J اR \ا: X ول ة aم 1859 م. و ن R اول &% ا 2 او C ا% q3 ا ;&X a;@ دو!را ;" ااV ; (2) ا Kي ن : 44 أ وا Kي أ 5 ا Aل ا %1 ول K2 ذ J ا. q A" a25 اول "ا h*2 " ذ; J ا; 1 " ا;_ &;% أوا 7 ; ا; ا;دس ;@ ا;ن ا 9;R a; ا;=دي أH ;ز وأ 5 اول ھ ا+;ك ا RR ;% ; G اS. Vث &% 3 ر ا+ gرة اS V{ ار 3 qg " XH ا G &% & ا Q!ت ا+ 3 d ن. و 9 a25 اول Bت أول أ ;م وأ ; ا; ت ;دة ا 2Q ;ت >;@ اY;R واR <ر و Q3 رة اول &% ا Y & Bط_ J a> اول اS G ;% X;3Aإ واR \اج ا ف aت Ca ات ا 9 Sisters).(The Seven و ن ا+ او& &% A3@ أوا 1 " ا ت a25 اول &% ا Y ; V{ q ا\ H@ ات ا; 9 ا;% ھ q;2 5;a2 C;a ا;ول &;% ا; Y ; ت أ ;. ھ; Kه أو;" أوف :R;% ;@ اR ;رد 3 A ;ن ا;ت ا; 9 ھ;% أ ;ن أو أوR ; A3;,;m و H ;" ا;% ;q و&;; م وR ;; " أو 3 ;;*ون و:>;; أ ;;. أ;; C;;a ا Q ;;} ا 7Ž ;; ;;@ ا+;; h اط;;% &;; ;; B ت ;; ;;" &ر R. ا G وH % H% ا Q < " اول H ره ا sq ا&% ا> 1 " وآ kره ادة را 2 *ذ ت ا;ول ا*;ة Q;" 2>; أR ;دا 2;m Ca ا!زات ا% ت 3 \m 9 a> اول ا% 23 ز q a@ Rد 3 > ;J ا G ة و 2 +> ا Y. Q3 رة ا ت. ھKه ا G ة وھKا ا 2 *ذ ل أG% R ن: &;% ا;ق اوh;R ظ>; a ;ن ;@ ا\;اh1 <g;h ; ط;ل ا; V " أR ;ء ا;ول وV ;ودھ و c >; :; ; وا 7Ž ; ;@ ا G2 ; ; إ; C H ;ت ھ 1Q :";> آي C; IPC %;R %;H أو KOC %;R أرا A ; Aramco آى أو.AOC %;R ھ; Kه ا+;وف ";>3 H +وف ا! 3 +دات ا ; ت ا;ول &>; Kه ا H ;ت ھ;% ا; ت ا+;. &;د ھ;% أرض أرا A ; وإ;ان 23;% ا ت ا 9 وا A q ھ% ا\ 0 ",m وH % H% وھKAا. K;<Hه ا G ; 3;9G ھ; Kه ا; ت أن 3 ;ر ;m 3 زع ا 2 ا! دي H@ دو وأ 7 ى وأن G39 او ا t2 H\1> ا Kا 3. واR ;<ر ا;ول ا;% وq;+3 إ; C اR ;\اج "g;*h ذا 3 G3 را *> H ور ا@ ت ھKه ا ت وطرت 57; أR ;ارا 3;J :ء ;@ Re ;ت ظ>;ت Q ;ء ;@ ا+ A ; ا;. وH ;ت ;ى C;a a ;د ;@ ا;ن B>; CV <<Q3 اول ا 2 Q وا> A Rاء. V Ca h*2 و& ا 7 > q ا 7 " Yc اان ; & q; أR &% ا;+اء و 3 q; H! *;ء ا; Kا %3. و; Y وا qa اط 2 V> &% =ت اول أي أ GRل آ 7 G3> ا@ اض وا G } وأ Rاق ا Y<R >; 3 ;ف ;" C;a اظ; m1 ا; Q ;ل &;% H>; ا; h*2 ; A;@ 3X V!H Aر ا A " 9. اR q\ J3 ا ت أ Vث ا; ا;% و 5 ;" إ>; ا;" ا;ي. و; J أن 3\;" ا; Y. و 3 ;" ; أ ;ن ھ; Kه ا; ت %;& <G;أ ا\*; %;& Q ;ل a2;5 ا;ول YA +3 m ا Y. }V " a ت اول +3 "Q إ A و% "a hrh => ا m5 G+Hت أ 7 ;ى %;& ھ R ;@ و 2 ;ن وط ; G;RاH :>;ز :."Logis" ھKه ا:>ة ھ% أ:>;ة أc; ا;ت وا! 3 ;!ت واا 5 ;=ت ا; واS ;اء وا;@ 3 ;م ت H3 2*R 1 و 7 a 2 ء ";+3 إ; وR ;@ ھ;& ;V ;1 +3 "QH أ ن H@ 7 Hا. H \* a ت ا;ول &;% Q ;ل a>;. &;م آ; ذات a;" ;" و&; ";AH ھ; Kه ; إ; X وq;5 ا; Kي ;ى ا G ;ر ھKا e ات <" ا G _ ا% ا! د ا% q2a <" ھKه ا إء c ;ة ; C;a ا; Y + c ;ت &;% ا;ول &;% ا; Y. ;در C;a وھ 2 >; >; H* دو; 3;J ; XQ R وا Vة. :" ھKا ا!ت ا+ة ا ;H:d ; X وا;> A واول ا 2 Q X3 ھ: أ@ ھKا ا Y ا Q } Ya اول و ا G وح & eال a@ ھKا ا eال +ول ا V { 39 ر V ا+{ وا ف واR <ر اول &% ادان. 4. اول &% ادان Hأت ر V ا+{ وا 2 } a;@ ا;ول &;% ا;دان 2;K a ;م 1959 م G;RاH ; أ:;} اS G ; G2; &;% ا+; أ a >; {+;H q; ;HQإ 01; C;a ت 22 ل وH % %;H و;" و 2a ; ";+3 Y; أي ; <3 ا V (1) a + a ا YV RHن اول &% ادان ا+ي واS Qز (ا\طم: ا ا% d ج اaS =% ط م). > اS ;ء ا H ;% 1976 م) ( H وت: ھ Y R% (2) أ% R ن ات ا 9 : ت اول وا Y ا Kي 25X ط 1 3:/ ص: 41. و&زي a ا+ اول واول رؤ Rدا 1988 م. 7
9 أ 2 م و 3 *;q :>;د ا+;{ وا 2 ;} H ;دان C;V :;ءت أز; ا; h*2 ا; a ;م 1973 م &;أت ا Q >;د ا;% q;gا %3Ž: 7Hل *ون ا Qل ا 2 } واR Aف اول ا Kي أو`+ X oh ا V <@ (دq7 *ون ا ; &;% ا 3 *;ق ;9 ا+ A ; ا;دا a ;م 1974 م 2;} a;@ ا;ول &;% ا;دان `;@ sh ;ب ا Q ; V ;ض &;% ا; h*2 ;&> H ا ت ا: 2. و H &ة أq2a *ون a@ 01 ;HQإ ادان 7 ;=ل ا*;ة ( 1976 ; 1979 م) 2A>; a;@ *;q 3 ا;" a ;م 1984 م ;Q+H ا!*;=ت ا 2 ;% &;% ا G2 ; H;} ا+ب اا 1 ة &% : 2 ب ادان. arھ &% ذ J اR ار ا\*ض أ Rر اول 7 =ل a م a% V{ ;th H+* 3 م Hن ا" a ة دو!رات &h. aم &% 1988 م. aدت Yk *ون *_ 9 ا+ A ادا R H ا 3 > q;:7 *ون m3 و Y Hدان. %& ا 2 ازا 3 > +ودة أو 3 2 " 60 ;V C;a أ; m ; ; H;9 a ;م 1990 م. &*و`; q ا+ A ; ا;دا ;9 ;*ون :; H ة وأ H رف V% ;دة ;" ;ة ;9 ا;ام ا+ A ; ا;دا H;& ا c ;وف ا 2 ; ا; aة و; Y 3;J 3;Q2 ا*و`;ت. 2a ;ھ 7 رات k=k ھ%: *ون Ca a`q ا+ A ادا 1. إ V3 ا* 5 دة إ C ر R ط> &% اR \اج وإج اول. 2. إ V3 ا* 5 ت أ 7 ى " a@ ط_ ا!اب! R ار a اR \اج و 3 اول. ا\ 1 ا;% q;+ c R2.3 ا! R 2sء وا\ ا!ز ا 2 ح < 9 ا!ام 9&H 3 gت (1). أ a > m 3 Q <H آk ت *ون ا 2 زل V_ a@ ازھ &% 2 ;ط_ ا;ول &;% ا;دان ر,; Y ا! ;&ت او; ا;ة إذ a ; :>ت اSدارة ا. &Y ا! 3 *ق 23 زل Ca *ون H" k و ن دو!ر أ % 3&9 7 ;=ل k; %;& ;G* ; ا; Q A ;رب ن دو!ر 9&3 ;ا. & R ;+ذت ; a k إ C V! qg*7 Yk أ> أ ; C;a ا;ز ; ;*ون a ;م 1992 م ;Y 3+;" ا!;ز ;ة أ 7 ;ى إ; C ا+ A ; ا;دا H; د&; 9 &; ا+ت ا. &5B+q Vق & از ا 2 } وا! R s =ل وا &% ا+ A ادا aا 2 ط_ ا;ز 33 ل و IPC %& : 2 ب ادان). H \وج *ون ا a@ ا" Hأ :; ر V ; أ 7 ;ى +;{ a;@ G ;رة 2A3:; &;% Q ;ل واR <ر H و X اR A@ a25 ا h*2 +" +" ا 2A : ا ا G ة Ca a ھKه ا a2 ادان sه Ca &% ا ا RŽ ا &% ھKا ا Q ;ل V;{ a< CV ا A m. 3 م Y ا V ھKه اة ط= أر ا o إ C ذ J أن اS ج ا*% ا Qري 2*h &% ادان Hأ 7Hل أر H ; ; ت أ: 2 ; &;زت GH ;ء q;r اR ;\اج واR ;<ر ا;ول ا;دا% ھ;% ا; اط 2 ; ا; 2 ;ول ; H و;س ا; ; * H وم ا 2A و RداqH ادا. qa& ھKه ا ت ر 3 م 9 ا+ A ادا و&_ ا 3 * ; ا h*2 7 =ل ار H ; 2;Rات او; C ;@ ا;" Ca اS ج ا% ذھ q Ca أن 3+" ا+ A ادا واS ج 3 د 2H ا %60 ت ا<ة G ف k%). q J3 ھ% ر V ا+{ a@ اول &% ادان وا% أ k ت H و 2aء ا ف واR ;\اج C;a GHل (1610) 2 ط_ اS ج إ C 2 ء ا ول " واR <ر.XG* Y& 2Hء {Hأ h7 ا+ ا V. أ 3 7 م اول ادا% &% أ, G 1999 م 7" ا;دان 2 ;ى ا;ول ا 2 Q ; وا;رة ا Qول ا%. `+X وذ J XG* Vل G3 إ C ادان اXQ3 2*h. 23 و G3 Vل ا h*2 ادا% 7 =ل ا*ة ( م) اYR ا+" 3 ر ا &X ا+ض ا 9H اS ج YQV ا% H" V5 ا ا!ز GNPOC GNPOC GNPOC GNPOC GNPOC GNPOC GNPOC GNPOC GNPOC ھ 0Q H R3 وث ا 2 ر ا+ ا<ر 2 د*ا % 7 ات ا Q ا Q ا Q ا Q ا Q ا Q ا Q ا Q ا Q 2 ب - 2 أ 1 أ 1 أ 1 أ 1 أ 4 1 ب 1 أ ا! V ط% MMbb ا A <& Ap G c2 اول ا 2 Q ورة ول (أوJH ) ; ت ا; G ة C;a اR ;\اج H} 1973 aم أز ا h*2 ھ% از ا% Bت واR <ر اول H دة R H" ا h*2 k=k دو!رات إ C 7 دو!رات qa;& ا; ت H ;دة ;رھ %25 &;h ;q *; BHن 3} &% J3 از ا. أG% R ن ات ا 9 ص: 365. (1) a + a ا YV RHن اول &% ادان ا+ي واS Qز :;9 _H;R ص: وا c ;: د. a; الله ا; R; أ V ; " ا دت ا h*2 ادا% &% إطر H و 3 ل ا<وة (ا\طم: درا Rت ا" 2005). * ر 3 م %23 &% أد H ;ت Q ;ل ا; h*2 ا 3 * ; ; اS ;ج H;@ او; ا 2 Q ; "ا; g *" وا; ت ا; &;% اR A ;ف واR ;<ر ا h*2. اc: a + a ا YV RHن اول &% ادان ا+ي واS Qز ص: 93. 8
10 ا* رث 2002 ا Q GNPCIS 6 ار: وزارة ا G وا@ اSدارة ا = R Aف. أدت a ا G وا 2 ا% >3> Vل ا h*2 &% ادان إ C G3 7 م اول. G3 إج اول ا\م Hدان 7 =ل ا*ة ( ) ل ا s ا 2 ي 2R ار م 1999 اS ج ا 2 ي " ا 2 % % % % 26 + % % 13 + % % 9 + % % 7 + % % % R 2000 ا Rس ار: وزارة ا G وا@ اSدارة ا = R Aف. 3G} a25 اول أن 3A@ او ا 2 &; اV ط>; ;@ ا; h*2 و+;ث ا! ;دن a;@ ا! V ط;ت ا G*2 ا V A" دو ن & G3 ر 3;J Y;QV ا! V ط;ت ; `;ور ;س ;ى Q ;ح ا Q >;د ا Kو; &;% اR A ;ف و 23 ; ا;ول. ا! V ;ط% او;% ا G*2 ;% ھ; Y;QV ا;ول ا H ;" d ;ج ;@ ;در H و; \و;; وو& H ط@ ارض ور &% و ;q ;@ اa ;دا C;a أR ; a; و; ا ;د ; e3 ر +H X; ا Qر;. أ; 2;X إ:;% اS ;ج ;@ ا\;ان او;% ا Q ;&% 2a; 3 ;ر G وV ; ا A ;% ا! V ;ط% Y;QV &>; ا! V ;ط% ا;% (1) أو ;A ; 5.62 &;A "ا;" واS ;ج. ا! V ;ط% Y;QV ;3 %;& (@. و 3 \م aدة وV ;ة ا;ن ";H ا ". 160 و أھ & ا! V ط% او% &%: ا aة &% ا 3 \ذ ارات ا! R <ر وا\ hg ت ا+* وا 2 وإء وإV =ل ا 2 ت ا RR وع & :وى ا V2 ا! د و &2 X *ص ا! R <ر ا 7 ى. G3 3. ر 9 ا;ول &;% ;و aت اS ;ج ا + * ; أو 3 ;=ت ا 2 ; ا RR ; و;!ت Q3 >;ات اS ;ج أو 3 =ت إ ل ا HŽر وأي و aت دة اS ج. %& اوع. درا R أو "3 أ ا 3 أو %& V V 9H أ V ا إ aاد hg7 و RRت ا+ A وا\ hg 2 وإ aاد ااز ا و وhG7 ا". 5. و 3 a25 ا a2 ت a ا\ط ا! د وا R وأھ>: ا\ط ا! د وا R a2 اول ط ا\ط \ط &2: * و:د 7 ت H> ا 1 },,ب &> * و:د اV طت a. ::.5 ت * و:د 3.5 * و:د ظوف *V * و ع ا! V طت &% 2 ط_ 1. ا\ط ا! د ا 3 a> ا\ط ا R ا\م. R KHK3 ب * ا R % ا! R ار aم * * ار 3 *ع A3* اS ج. * 23 زع 2 ط_ اS ج H@ اول ا+ Aت * ا\*ض ا 1. * s3 ا:ت وا c ا+. * ا! V ط%. * s3 ات ا c2. ار: a + a ا YV RHن اول &% ادان ا+ي واS Qز ص: 59. Ca `ء 3 م A@ ال BHن اول أ 5 ; <;" 2a; ;ة ; H ;ھ ;ة = ;دت ا;% ا q;a ھ; Kه ا; اRS ا Q3. و أھ a" اول = د ادا% &% 3 ه ا*و`% إذا أ م ادان Ca ا 7 ل ا ; +; إ&; ; اRS ;ا Q3 أن إ; C ا S ;رة &% ا ا د ;9 ا!;ت ا+;ة ا ;. و ; R;q اa ت Ca ا 2 _ 9 أورو H YA+H ار 3 ط 3 > ار\ Hرة إ&;. ; H ;ز اھ>; ; GH &;% إ&; ;@ 7 ;=ل ا; h*2 5;a2 &;% ; درة ا G اS & ا% 3 ف a> وزارة ا G ا 7Hل aد ;@ ا; ت ا و 3 Z\ ا ا وا! 3 +د اوروH % Hدان اول اS &. aد &% ا <* اS واو..1 ا" kb Ca ا+ A ادا وا hsg <a 2. ا" Ca و m ا+وب اھ وإV =ل ا=م..3 ا 7 ل 9 ادان %& a25 ا ھ 2 Q3 أھ a" اول ادا% 2H ا% اa ت اول ادا% ا; Kي ا ;*X ; ;*ون \و اR ا Q3 X=sR! C3 > &% 2;m ا;ن ا+;% ; H;@ a ;م م وذ; J ا ;R 2 دا إ; C إ: H ; ;aq آH ;ر ا;ول ;G2H ا\; 0 B;Hن ا;دان ھ; ا! V ;ط% 3*Q; a;} "t;r 2a اب Hش % ا 1 ا %& ادان ا+ي واS Qز 9: _HR ص:.55 ا YV RHن اول a + a (1) 9
11 اھم ا!ت ا+ة ا ; H ;دان ا<;" reserved"."sudan is second وK<Hا ا<% &% اھ &% ا 5 ل!3* ا=م ا;" H;@ ا+ A ; ا;دا وا+ ; ا; ودورھ; ا;ظY ;A &;% دار&;;ر. &;;<وة ا;;% A3;;@ &;;% ا;;دان ودار&;;ر و 3 +;;ذي H +;;ة ا;; h*2 ا;;ة ;;@ إ ;;Y H+;; ا s ;;ال ;;ورا H ;;د وا A ون 3<" أھ; Y ا s ;ت ا! ;د ا;دا ; ھ; J V *;ة a;@ ا 2 +;س ا 7 ; ا;% ;ل أ>;,2; Hدن! R ارام. وورد &% 5+* ا Qردن ا G أن ا; h*2 ا;دا% A;Rن ھ; ا;ة اا&; ا 1 ; `;\Y *;h ا+" &;% ا;دان R;& 7 ;ان ا A ي ا 7 " أن إ C &% أي,و Aa ي 7 ر:% دان. و 7 q, s" &% إ Y دار&ر و: 2 ب ادان!R أن ھ 2 ;ك دا&; آ 7 ; ;و H ;رزا وھ; أن ا;ز اR ;\اج ا; h*2 &;% ادان 39 XH ا ا 2 ا ول ah رھ أ ا<@ &% ا; h*2 H ;دان. ; أن ;@ H;@ ا;وا& 9 ا% q: أ Y<3 أ ;> h*2;h ا;دا% ھ; <;R! ;ف ;أ اV ط;ت ;G* H ;ا ;a ا\; 0 ا H % a =وة Ca ا اة ت ا ; و k ; ا; S;Hدارة ا ;. H; 2;% ر,; ا 7 ;ة &;% ا;ول ا;دا%. وأن ;@ ; اR ;\اج a ;ت &;% دY;a ; ا; ت ا G*2 ; وأن A3 ;ن >; ا+; ا ; 3 ;رد Vd ;ءات وا!;ت ا+;ة ط; ا G ;%. وا s ;ز إ;ادات ا; h*2 ;@ qhk ى Ca ا+*ظ أ أg H +;ا% ;ر 6 H;". ;ر ا h*2 اV ط% %60 *G> %20 %3B3 دول ا\ 0 ا H % وYa3 J3 ا+ 1 _ ا R ب ا% 3&9 أ % + ا> 2 ارد Ca اول &% ا Y و 3 < " J3 ا R ب &%: 1. أk ا+ ا@ او C وا< Ca اب إادات اول ول ا> A :" ا!;ت ا+;ة 3; B;Hن.X* ; أ ;ت %& ز@ ا+ب 3 Ca ا G ة Ca ا+ر أ > <2 Ca A اول ارد اول V ا!ت ا+ة ا\ BG ا!&اض XBH :} a> 3 و; ا; Y H ;ول ;@ اV ط>; او;% اK;7Ž &;% %& <VاR و&% G2 أ! AR. ا gؤل <: 3 ا 2 اول 2. ;ن *; 7 ة ا;% ارA3 >; ا; إدوارد أد;ر a ;م 1919 م :X;H "إن V ;ل ا;ول ا:;دة 7 ;رج ا!;ت HG;%". ;ن >; Kا أ ; ا k ; &;% H أ Rل أو 3 ل ا+ة ھ% &% أي HG إ 3+q إدارY<3 أو 3>YGR ا G ة " Ca ارد اول &% ا Y. gh ورة ا 2 ع أ H:>; وY;3 3. ن ھة ا% و q HG H@ و& a} ا+ب ا او; C ;3e &;% R ;ن &ا; A H ول اق اوhR H@ او@ 9 اR د ا!ت ھ; Kه ا; ;Q+H أن ا;ول ا; Kي X;Q23 ا S اطر ا G وH =د &رس إج ا Y G3 2H أ ; وا J;A V ;ا% C;a %82 Ca اول ا%. ا G ة إج اول ا% kb3 ھ اا` Ca ا a2 ت ا ا; G ة &; C;a ;ارد ا;ول &;% ا; Y ھ; ا; ا; Kي gh ورة 4. أھY aا" ا s &% ا a2 ت ا ا Q :@ Caو "أ&; q دي 3;" وا; Kي 23;B 7 ا 1 > أ V Hدة و 5 H<> إ C G2 ا\ 0 ا H % &;X B;Hن ; ا<;" 2H; ;Y إ;ج ا;ول ; أK;7 +;ل ;@ 2 ;ط_ ا\; 0 وا A ;ر% إ; C ا;ق اوh;R وا\ 0 ا H % و@ ا+" أن ا 5 " 3+X ط H رة راR \ J3 &% ا G2. a ;م 1956 م &; a ;زت ا; ا ; أ <; &;% ا G2 ; ; C;a 5. V ب 2 ة ا ا% ;2> HG; 3> ا &% Qل اول 9 ا+ A 7 =ل 2Q ا Gارئ ا\ 5 ; H ;ق اوh;R VH وا% أ3B> ا!ت ا+ة B@ " اول إ C أورو H واRS >م Hاردھ م QH >د. ا!;ت ا+;ة d ;ام دون 3 ;دد 3;B@ C;a ;+> ا\ 5 ; ;ار &;% 1973 م ا" ا+ Y;R aم أز ا h*2 <q ا G ة 2 ط_ Ca إج اول &% ا Y. و! 3 ال أز; ا; h*2 a ;م 1973 م 3;% ch ;=ل 3; C;a أ ; gh ورة إ Vى اول ا g J3 از ا% 3<q أھY أR H > &%: ah رھ ا+ YA 1. aم ل اول ا 2 Q H *>م 2*h ا A " =زات او ا% :ى B3 :ھ ت &% ظ" أc وظوف \* و*ات ط. A ا!ز. ا G X +_ 2. G اول ا 2 Q Hر 2*h ا* و&_ c أن ا ا ا! 7 ;;=ف H;;@ ا;;ول ا 2 Q ;; وا;;> A ;;ول V ;;ل ا R ;;ر و 3 ;; اS ;;ج ا;; 3 h o;;*\h ;; ا;;و!ر ا % ور a ا ت hhh ا ا=ت a@ H! او!ر. 3 ا:; X ; وJK;H ا; g * + A ;ت 3 \ف 4. ت أن e3 دي ار ;% >; ا G ;ف إ; C 3>; ;A إ 5 ;ار ;ار 3>; وإ; C أي ;ى و ;Y ;@ ا;@ A;@ ا! V *;ظ X;H رھ 2 ; ;+> ا; H ;ارد او &% اان ا 2 Q. a;. &;=ك أي دو; ;ول &;% Y;a ا;م ; ; ke ة ھKه اا" إذا ا A > أي دو ;R Aن >; ;ة ا ;د 2a ة إ`&! دھ &% ا:> ا د أي دو; ;>A!;ت ا+;ة ا ; ا;% 3;>J ;! ;" a@ اR >=ك ا اول. وإذا أq2V J3 او إدارة و ھKا ارد ا+ 7 =ل ا; 7 ل &;% HX. 7 ر:% sو أو 3`> \G ا ت ا د & 9 اول ا> A a@ H! 3o *G> 10
12 5. اا" ا! د, اة ا+* ة ا ادا ا اا" ا! د, اة ھ% aا" دا a m ا! د ادا% و 3 <" أھا& إR ا Q3, ة &% ا Rت ا! د ا وأھ> a =ن ھ: أو! : a" اه V{ اول ا 2s Hارده ا 1 ا HK ; ا<; &;% ;ه ا 2 ;" وروا&;ه وا;ه ا G +, ا 2 واه ا Q & ا Qدة. و 3 ر اارد ا 1 دان 2R H +ا% (31.5 ر A}) : 3 ات اارد ا 1 ا 2 Hدان ا+دات ارد ا %1 ا A (ر A}) } ه ا 2 " در 20.5 R 9 ا ا\ 2 &% &ات ة وgH > ك وQ3 ى HKHK 6.7 ه ادن وا\ان 3 ا: 4.3 &% 2 ط_ Hة و! 3: H ت 3+ اه ا Q & ا+ة 31.5 ا Q ا &% ادان ا A ا R ا G } ار: a mr ا HG ; ا;%ء ا; Kي أ,;ى H ;رة Ca ا, 39 ادان K<Hه ا A ;ت ا;&ة ;@ ا;ه إ! أ;X! ;s> ا!ت ا+ة ا ود&> *A &% ا" 3 و Ca إR ا 1 " H+ ادان, ا ;ه ا 2 ;" ; ;@ إR ;ا 1 " V:; &;% إط;ر 3;B@ H ;دان ;% أر a ا Yc أH ; ا G ; وآ 7 ;ون ( 1985 م) : ;%3B ا!ھ;م ه ا 2 " H" ظ" 2 ;زل QH ;ء 2>; ; 2;K a ;م 1929 م ; VX اه ا HK. ah ر أن ادان! s" :;" 3*A; إR ;ا 1 " X;Q إ; C ا+;ل C;a ا;ه ا HK ; ;@ >; ا 2 ;". و ; a ; اH ;@,ر;ن a;@ 5 ;اع إR ;ا 1 " +;;ل ;;ه C;;a ا 2 ;;" :X;;H "إن ا>;;د \`;;ن ا;;م ;; ;;ه وC;;a ;; ھ;; Kه ا ;; ;;m ;; (1) إR ا 1 ""). و@ ھ 2 Q3 %ء أھ a" اه 2H دان A@ أن Xs &% أي a; 3 *و`; R ;دا أ ; "; %;& ;RV =;a 7 ل %& ا ا د. ھKا {+& "H ا R ب ا 7 ى "Q اب وھ ;ف H +;ب ا;ه ا;% H ;زت &A3>; ; 7e ا ;@ 3; ; ا c2 ; ا; ;+ ھو;% : &% 3e د ( R Aن :XH اه ا A ا> 2 &% ا;ن ااV ; وا;@). وV ;ب ا;ه ;q ;A V< ا B2 ة 5 ح JKH ا c2 ا + إ ھ% A ;م ا;ر. ; أن +;و!ت إR ;ا 1 " +ل ه Ca ا 2 " ھ% ا 7 ;ى ; و 3 :; 9 إ; C a ;م 1903 م V;@ زار ھ 3 ;ل ; &;% ذ; J ا;م. و;@ ذ; J &% ھKا ا و Hأت hg\3 وع 3& ه اي 2;}. & B ; Bت ھ t ; ط+;ل QH &% ا* A إR ا 1 " Hأت ار ا> R2! R Q =ب ه ا 2 " a@ ط_ إء *_ ور اه 3+q 2 ة ا X 2H*_ ا Kي _ 3+q اY;R ا;> أ V Vي ا% 3 < q أھY +و! 3 > +ل ه Ca ا 2 " &%: اوع اRS ا %1 ا ;% ا; Kي 3 A ;ن ط; X Turkish Israelian Scheme ;@: ا;+ YA ا ;% &;% ;در ا;ه وذ J c2h ; ;X ا\; ا ;% " 3 ;س ;ف B;Hن "Tomas nafe RS ا 1 " Vي hs` 2a و:د gن R أ 33 رك ma Rر 7 رة ه ا*ات maو ااق %75 أو XV %& ھKا ا 2 >. ا+ة ا. H!ت و k _ "AH 1. ر R ھ 2 إ 3 إR ا 1 Ca اب 33h Hه GRاH اR \ام a ت `\ ه اب 23> Hا 7 ة و@ ا;و aت إR ا 1 " H 2. م 3 ا G و V G ھKا اون ھ أب H +ي. ";ر m " a ;م 1974 م ;ل &;X أن ; " إR ;ا 1 " H;+* وع ا> 2 س اRS ا %1 ا 9 % ا Kي ;ه ا 2 ;" أي V ;ا% ;ن 80 ; %1 ا أن "+3 Ca اى ا GRاH اR \ام {;3 ا ars و&% ا Q ;} ا 7Ž ; {QH {A %& ام. Yو ذ J "2H اه GRاH {Hأ 2 ة q+3 ا 93 H ا وا G2 ة و@ ھ 2 3 H +ذاة,ة ا CV 7 ;ن ;. H\R اه &% 2 ة 2G و&% 7 ن } Q ى اه *a@: &ع Gع,ة و&ع آ 7 2}. ا+و!ت اRS ا 1 اا 5 +ل V ;ه ا 2 ;"! ; 2 ھ G2;_ أو ;ن &>;% ;q إV ;ى دول > ا 2 " ا ا>ر او ا% 3+A> ا a ان او% ا Kي ف ا>ر او; >;BH Q ;ري ا;ه ا H =V ا% 3*" H;@ دو;@ أو أ <; أو 3; إ >;. ; a&;q ;دئ ھ A;2 % ;م 1966 م ا Q ;ى ا; %1 ا% 3 a دو@ أو أ < +دھ Gق 3&_ اه &% cم %1 ; و 3 ;" ا;ه ا sq ا& ھ ا G2 او% XBH (2) ا %1 او%). ا Q ى ھKا Ks3 ي ا G + وا Q & ا% 23 ب Q3Hه وا V ah رھ روا& ط H +;ل V; C;a ;@ ;ه ا 2 ;" ا>; Y إ! إذا ;q 3;2 &;% ا G ; &;% V;_ أد C إR ا 1 " ھKا ا m! G% ا;و% ا;% <,;5 %;& ر ;R X ;<2 ھ;رن V ;ل Harmon Doctrine ا*>;م ا+;{ ;c Ca J3 <G ا:> إ C 3AR او H!ت ا+ة ا &% أH ;" a ;م 1895 م a;@ ا\;=ف H;@ أ ; وا J;A B;Hن (1) a ا Yc أ H ا Gء و* >ب ود& 9 الله ر` > ا 2 " ا`% وا+` وا" (اھة: دار ا" ا H % 1985). ( 2) Third Report of the Committee on the uses of the Water of International Rivers, Agreed principles on the International Law,( New Yourk, 1958). p
13 3+; >; ا,;اه ا Rio Grande ; ا G ;ر ا! ;دي ا ;% 2a; V ; q أ ; ا Q ;ى ا G ;% ط;! 3:; ;XBH ھرن و أ& C. ا JA a> 2> 3+= أk Hر: +ظ ه Ca ا 2 > ا% +" اa ; &;% ا;ن ا;و% Y;A+3 ا 2 ;اع &; Œن ااa ; وا;دئ وا;اH _! 3 *;ض أي ;t أو ا;ام C;a ا!;ت (1) ا+ة ا و H % G_ > ادة &% اف Hه ا 2 >). إذا q ا*` ا% اa ت a> إR ا 1 " &% G> ه ا 2 ;" 3;2 c; C;a ;أ ا;دة ا G ; Q ; V! e ; X;أ ا G2 ;_ &; Œن "Rio Grande" ;< اa >; 9; ا J;A V ;ل ;ه %;& ; ا;% ;<+2 ھ;رن V;_ أ 5 ;" &;% ;ه ذ; J ا 2 >; ا; Kي 2;9 ;@ أ ; و Q ;ي &;% 5;V إR ;ا 1 " &;% ھ; Kا ا+;_ ن ا J;A ;q ارا`% ا AA } Yk &% 07 ا JA. أن ; ;Y 3 2 ;زع ; 9 دول V ;ض ا 2 ;" و;@ 2H>; ا;دان &;% * اف &% ه ا 2 " Aن RS ا 1 " ا+_ &% ا 7 ل G ف &;% <;" ھ; Kا ا 2 ;اع. و! A ;ن +Q; إR ;ا 1 " &;% G 2H+> ذ J ا+_ ن J3 ا+ق c23> ا 3 * ت دول > ا 2 " &;% ھ; X وG3 ;% ;" دو; V;> و&; اR s =ل % H دول ا 2 > وBH! 3 م VH ام *>م اا &% ارد ا %1 او% و%2 اام " دول ا 2 > (2) ا;س H +;ق ا;ول ا 7 ;ى). وC;a `;ء *>;م ا;ا &;% ا;رد ا; %1 أو ا! R s =ل 2Hع ا;و% 3;Y ا! 3 *;ق H;@ ; وH G ; H;*> <; ;دان وH ; % دول Q ;ى >; ا 2 ;" a ;م 1929 م `;h C;a اR \ام ه ا 2 ". و&% aم 1959 م 3" Y3 ا 3 * 1929 م + ط; ا ;م V; ;ه ا 2 ;" H;@ ; وا;دان H &اض أن ا hr ا 2 ي S اد ا 2 " 84 ;ر ; A;} وإن & ; ا\;@ وا;ب 3; 10 ;رات ; ;دان {;A و 18.5 ;ر ; ; {;A H ;ار ;ر 55.5 ; % ا; Y %H {A وY;3 ا+; Z ا 1 ; ا A ; >; ا 2 ;" و V دول V ;ض ;ت a= q;c H,Y ;@ ھ; Kه ا! 3 * ;ت اا`;+ ا;% 2H> إ! أن وع أو و a 3 و; إR ;ا 1 " H ;ه ا 2 ;" ظ;" < ;" أV ; 2H ;د ا: 2 ;ة ا ; &;% ا G2 ;. H ;أت V;{ JK; Q; أ 3> JK اوع a ا! 3 * ت ا% 3 ھ ;9 إR ;ا 1 " او&; 3H* ;ت ا;ون ا! R ;اQ3 %. ا Y;c a; ذ; J ا 2 ". أ;ر إ; C Hه 3_ اq<Q3 إR ا 1 " + hg\ Q!ت 3 ون ك H@ ا@ أ H ا G وآ 7 ون ( 1985 م): Hأت إR ا 1 " K2 أوا 7 ; a ;م 1977 م h;g\3 Q ;!ت 3 ;ون ;ك ;9 ;. &;q ر 9 +دة 3_ Hه ا 2 " Ca أ Rس G3 ا= ;ت ا! ;د أ <; 3 ;ا و 3 ;ا 7 = واR ;ارا. إذ ;@ اوف أن ھ 2 ك ر 9 23 وا R Qل &% ارا a 2H; 2 +;رات ا Q ;ل &;% 2;Rء و G2 ; ر&;. إذ A@ د 0 ھKه ا G2 &% ر 9 " ت ه ا 2 " إ C ا 2 } H" ;@ ا;ل و H ;% 3+;" G2; &% أورو H. وان اه ا 9 ا\;ة اRS ;ا 1 3;9G 7;_ g7 اء ارع إ C ل 2Rء وا 2 } ا s H % ا Q ;ات &;% ھ; Kا ا Q ;ل و 3 ;داد أ,;اض ا! R ;<ر &;% ا G2 ; ا;% 3;J ط ; a; ; ور 7 ; ;@ :>; و Gرة ور :> أ 7 ى. H;" ھ; اa ط; ا 7 ;ر إR ;ا 1 " ;م 1977 م ا; ا;" ا;ك ;9 ; &;% ا;ر 9 ا; H ;ه ا 2 ;" ;Y ;Y ار ا+د!>ء R* اه ا% أ Gaھ ادان. A ذ J إ 5 ار إR ا 1 " &% ا+;ل V; C;a &5 3+_ إR ا 1 " > Kا ا+ Y ا Kي راودھ رد ا;ن a; ا 3 * ; Vq ه ا 2 " ا Kي اR ط= } د* 2a 3 م ا 1 اي أر ادات &% aم 1979 م H درة 5;" ;ه ا 2 ;" إ; C ا 2 ;} اRS ;ا %1. (ا; m ا; 1 ا;دات ;%: ; H>; و أر a ا Yc أH ; ا G ; ( 1985 م) إ; C 3;J ا;درة وا A *; ا;% أ 7 :; q ;H أ Q; H رات د +_ اھاف اRS ا 1 اة &% ;ه ا 2 ;" وY;3 ذ; J ;GH ا; V ا;% أ 7 :>; ا;; &;;% 2 ;;ول A ;;ن ا;;س 1979 م :;;ء &>;;: 53;;" ;;ه ا 2 ;;" إ;; C a ;;م ;;H أ &;;% ا;; ;;X ا R ;; وأزھھ وY;RH د& a >; a;@ YRH ادد@ Ca ا Q ا C و ا\ة و 2 ا وh1V ا CA. وإ X اRS =م 3 ه ا 2 " ھ% زم A" ا; H د;ن ا;و ا<= k ;). وھK;Aا q;v إR ;ا 1 " V>; &;% ه ا 2 " "g*h ا 2 زل ا Kي 2+X إھ ا 1 اي a ا 3 * } د* وا Kي ;ن ;Y دون V Ca م +; H;" ا+;_ &;% ذ; J ا+ ا Kي أGa X إه ا* ا 1 ; ا;دا ;!ن ا;ن ا;% ا;ي! X;G اف &% ه ا 2 " H9 أو ا> أو ار. وH = & Œن J ه ا 2 " اال ا ; Cg;H ;Z ا;دة ان ا% اي ا Kي ف اال >BH ارات وا 2!ت ا% و; أو ا;\ص ا! a ر; ا ; أو رR ;م أو ;ار ;@ ا;ز ا\; Z. <;" ھ; Kه ا;ال ;ن Cg;H أو H*" a 2* وا% A3 ن \ +م ا;ن ا+ Q ; a>; أو H ;دم A3>; و! Q ;ز ا;ف &>; H;9 أو ا>; أو ار; أو 3; V;_ ا*;ع ا+;ق إ a ;! ;@ ھ; Kه B;Hي ا a ; Q ;ز إ> q Q;" A; ا+;% وV ;ه H;" ˆ:;ل اد;. ;! ah ر a> " 3+Y ا Qء. ا A " aة 3+Y ( 1) A.H. Garreston R. D. Hyton, The law of International Drainage basins, (New York, 1967). P. 20. (2) أ V ا*% درا R Vل ا 3 * ;ن ا! R ;\ام ا Q ;ري ا 1 ; او; &;% ا,;اض,; ا= V ; (ا\ط;م: Q; ا AV ;م ا; 1g ادا G ا> t ا 1g 1997 م) ص: 277. (3) د. +د أ H ز اه ر ا 3 &% ان ا 21 (اھة: اھام : وا 2 ط ھ 1998 م). 12
14 .6 اج ا! د ادا% &% ا! د ا% ; ا*;ح ا ;د أي دو; C;a ا! ;د ا;% ;@ 7 ;=ل &; أR ;ا > 2;& ا+; أV ; أھ; Y G ;ت ا; ا! د ام. &A ن ھKا ا!*ح أR ع %;cv ذ; J ا! ;د H ;ل أ ; ;@ ;" ا;ول ا; a2 ا;. &;;a ودر:;; A3;;" ا ;;د او;; &;;% ا! ;;د ا;;% 3\;;m ;;@ دو;; 7 ;;ى و;;@ إ ;;Y إ;; C إ ;;Y! 7 ;;=ف ا\ Gات ا% 3 K\ ھ J3 او 5S =ح ا دھ ودر: 3+ <3aG ا! د ا\ر: وا. &a ا\اط ا د او &% ا! د ا% 3 س Hة طق و e ات 2> ت ا Rر وأ Rر ا* 1 ة &;% ھ; Kه او; ر; H ;ت ا R ;ر ا; &; Œذا q;hg3 ھ; Kه ا;ت &>; Kا 2;% أن او; A; ;9 ا! ;د X;R آ 7 ; ; ;رة اR ;ب او; 2A:; وا&; A;@ ;} e; ا;% H ;رة 3;. وھ 2 ;ك أ;g وس ا& ا Q ; ا; Kي ;\م e; ;@ ا R ;ر ا+; a;@ ا R ;ر ا; وھK;Aا. و ; اR ;\م ا J;2 او% &% درا R أ:اھ س Ra ا\اط oh اول &% ا! د ا% أر H e ات ھ%: 1. ل ا Qرة إ C ا 032 ا+% اS :%. 2. ل ا! R <ر ا: 2 % إ C ا 032 ا+% اS :%. 3. ل 5 درات ا 9 ا 2 إ C إ:% ادرات. 4. و 3 m2 اول 3 Qار 3 > ا! 1 وا! R <ر. او@ ا e ;ات ا;ة 2H; ; ا e ;ان ا 7 ;ان e;@,; ا أن إ C ا Sرة Q3 ر ا@ & Ra ا;ج س در: اج اول &% ا! د ا%. Kا R \م ا V { ا! د ادا% &% ا! د ا% ن ا e ات, ا;ة ذات ;Y 2; ;} <H;V R ;م ; ;. ا 7 ر 201 ا% 5" إ> RH \ام H0 ا+م اVS 1 م ا!: a ; (SPSS) ور; ذ; J ;9 ŒH :اء 53" إ X ا J2 01 &% دراR X ا% `+> ا Qول ا%: ا A " وا e ات aq XH دول ا Y e Vل او% 01 درا R ا J2 ا e اS Y اول 3* ا 7 " ا;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;ول G;;;;;;;;;;;;;R و g;;;;;;;;;*\2 ا 7 " ق آ R أوروH ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ووhR آ R أ ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ا= 23 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; وا Aر% ا;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;ق اوh;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;R و;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;ل إ& : 2 ب آ R إ& ا s &% ا! R <ر ا: 2 % ا إ C GDP ( ) إ C ( ) m23 %& ا s Reت ا! R <ر ( ) إ C ( ) ا s ا+% &% ا Qرة إ C GDP ( ) إ C ( ) 1.33 e ا A " 0.31 ا s &% 5 درات ا 9 ا 2 إ C إ:% ادرات ( ) إ C ( ) ار: 3 ات ا@ HJ2 او% 1996 م = a@ " Vد ا Qت و c2 ا Qرة ا و 2H ; ;@ R; ;ن ا Qول أa =ه أن e اج اول اS & ا% > دراR ; ا J;2 H =V ھ 2 ; 3;%3B أھ; &; e; ا;ج ا! ;د ا;دا% &;% ا! ;د ا;% وذ; J!ر 3 ;ط a; ا!*;ح ا Q ;ري H Q ;رة ا\ر:;! 7 ;ر ; ;aو ا; 9 وا\;ت %;& "A; 5 ;درات ";H ; ا; 9 ا c2 ; A;@ JK; ا+;%. G;} =1; وا\ت &% A" واردات Gs ا* Qة &% ا 9 وا\ت ا% A3 ن أ <; ا% > 7 =ت و\:ت 3 Ca ھKه ا 7 =ت. V;{ ا اS : k3" إ C a ا Qرة ا\ر: إ> Ca a@: Ca \م ا ادرات Q} ااردات و 1 ات اS : & Œن YQV وع ا 032 ا;" اول ھ; Y;QV ا;درات ودر:; ا A *;ءة ا;% 3 ;s" H>; ا 1 ;ات ;@ 3;J ا;درات Q;} ا;اردات ا <; ھKه ا A *ءة: وط ادل ا Qري ل ا!*ح ا Qري. e ات ا+% و@ أھY G} =1 13
15 ب( ا;" ا<;%: ھ; اR ;ب ا R ;اق ا; ;درات ھ; Kا ا; &; Œذا زادت ا A ;ت ا;رة 3+;q2 ;وط ا;دل ا Qري > Kا ا YQ2و a@ ذ J إ ل ا Rاق ا Ca ھKه ادرات A ;@ ;@ 3;*> H;a و A3 * أ ". وQ > Kه ا 3 داد واردات J3 اول ق ا+;% &;داد 3; JK; ;ھ ا Q ;رة ا\ر:; &;% (1) ا 2 رة. و R ت ا g \ إ% 3" ا sgط eدي g3_ ا* Qة H@ اض وا G } Ca ا 9 & Œذا q2a3 ھKه ا <3wH ا Kا 3 " 5 درات أن 3 % ا G } &} دورھ &% ا! د ŒH Qد =1 وa H@ اض وا G } دون ا Q ;ء إ;% إ:;اءات أ 7 ;ى. و H ; أن در:; ا!*;ح ا Q ;ري 3; C;a a= ; YQV ادل ا Qري 9 ا 032 ا+% اS :% وا s ات ا JKH وأن ل ادل ا Q ;ري أو e; ا!;ج ا! دي ھ Y;QV ا;دل ا Q ;ري (ا;درات + ا;اردات) إ;% ا 03;2 اS :;% ا+;% 2;Rم X;a H +و; ا;ج ا! ;د ا;دا% &;% ا! ;د ا;% RH ;\ام ا e ;@ ا;@ ا; اR ;\> ا J;2 e; إ Q ;د او% %& دراR X ار إ> HR وذ e اج ا! د ادا% &% ا! د ا% RH \ام ا e ات اة *ة ( / 2004 م 95/ ( ن دو!ر ا s ا+% &% ا! R <ر ا إ% ا 032 ا+% ا s ا+% &% ا Qرة ا\ر: إ% ا 032 ا+% اS :% اS :% (GDP) ا 2 ا! R <ر H Rر GDP ا 2 } ا s YQV ا Qرة H Rر GDP ا Qر ا 2 } ا s ا ا Qر ا!ج ا!ج ار: (أ) H ت ا Qرة ا\ر: وا 032 ا+% اS :;% ; 7Bذة ;@: وزارة ا; ا;ض ا! ;دي 2001 ا ا! د ادا% ط 2 ط 3. و a + a ا YV RHن اول &% ادان ا+ي وا! Qز إH اھ Y a <ن و FTD Web master, Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington Marsh ( H ت ا! R <ر ا أK7 ا Q >ز ا ي Vd ء a + a ا YV RHن اول &% ا;دان ا+ي واS Qز 2005 م. g ا e ات اة س اج ا! د ادا% &% ا! د ا% QHول ا %3Ž : ا;@ وھ;: ا e ;@ A;= 1. أظ> e Ra اج ا! د ا;دا% &;% ا! ;د ا;% ; :; ل ا Qرة إ% ا 032 ا+% اS :% H R ;ر ا Qر; و;ل ا! R ;<ر ا; إ;% ا 03;2 ا+;% اS :;% ا!;ج C;a 0.13 أR ;س ;ل ا Q ;رة إ;% ا 03;2 ا+;% اS :;% e; ; q;sh V;{ H Rر ا Qر; و 0.18 Ca أ Rس ل ا! R <ر ا إ% ا 032 ا+% اS :% *ة (85/ 1994 م). اج ا! د ادا% &% ا! د ا% ا+ H Ca أ Rس س ;ل ا! R ;<ر إ;% ا 03;2 Ra 2. q C;a <H;V 2a; X;a أR ;س ;ل ا Q ;رة إ;% ا 03;2 ا+;% ;q a; 0.18 أ&; g " ا+% اS :;% وا s ; kb;3 ا اS :% وا% 0.13 qsh ل Ca أن ل ا! R <ر إ;% ا 03;2 ا+;% اS :;% ھ; ا s ; ا <; %& a ا!ج. ي `m e اج ا! د ادا% &% ا! د ا% 7 =ل ا*ة ( 1994/85 م) إ% ا R ب ا: (1) ا Q >ز ا ي Vd ء ادا% 3 ا!*ح ا Qري ووط ادل ا Qري *ة م (ا\طم أH " 2007 م). 14
16 ا 2 1. ا kb ا} +ر واط ا! د ` ادان ا% >3> J3 ا*ة. &;% اR ;ت وا;% ;!ت ا; Y\g!ر 3 *;ع Q; 2. `m YQV ا 032 ا+% اS :% وا Qرة ا\ر: دان ازدد G د CV Q3 وزت ا %100 &`SH إ% اھر ا+ظ &% ا ادا و R 5&> H" او!ر ا % و aم اR ار ا Rت ا! د وا. H; ( 2004/95 م) ا; 2Rات أظ> e اج ا! د ادا% &% ا! د ا% 2+3 +ظ &% ا : q;sh C;a 0.21 أR ;س ;ل ا Q ;رة إ;% ا 03;2 ا+;% اS :;% ˆ R ;ر ا Qر; و 0.15 C;a أR ;س ;ل ا! R ;<ر ا; إ;% ا 03;2 ا+;% اS :;% H R ;ر ا Qر;. &;% ھ; Kه ا*;ة ;ن ; ل ا Q ;رة إ; C ا 03;2 ا+;% و ي 3+@ Ra اج ا! ;د ا;دا% &;% ا! ;د ا;% 7 ;=ل ا*;ة kb3 ا. اS :% ھ ا s ا < (95/ 2004 م) إ C ا R ب ا: 1. ا! R ار ا! دي ا Kي >X3 J3 ا*ة. G3_ 2. ادان Rت +*ة d ج و:ذH ; = R ;<ر 3;C HG ;ت ;9 c2; ا Q ;رة ا; <;" ;RR 3+ ا! د و& ا Rاق ادا 2& ا+ة A& ا! دت و 3 +;@ أR ;ر 5 ;ف ا X;2Q ا;دا% H" او!ر وo*7!ت ا Y\g إ C ي ل Bد C 4.9 :qsh V{ ل و 46.5 ;ل CaB 7 ;=ل ا*ة (1997/ 2004 م) V} ار ا\* J2 ادان ووزارة ا. 3" 3. ھ A " ا! د ادا% و 23 ع X3Q2 7Hل اول &% ھ A " ادرات ادا K2 أ, G 1999 م. :ء اR \ام H ت ا 032 ا+% اS :% H Rر ا Qر a@ H! ا Rر ا< H!ر 3 ط> H s ات ا% 3 +ث &;% ت ا Rر ا ون ا Gب ھ; إ:;اء ر; 2;03 ا;% ا;دا% 2H ;ا 03 دول أ 7 ;ي 3;2 ; C;a 3 +ج ر ا 032 ا% اS :% &% دو c2h ه &% دو أ 7 3+" ; XBH أو`+ X oh ا V <@ إ:اء ار. و" ذ J \م A@ CV دو a >AH ا 032 ا% اS :% و@ إ% a وا Vة 3m (1) R اف ا Qري وا R % +" ا 032 a + إ% a دو <" او!ر ا %). 32 أR ب اR \ام ا V { 032 ا+% اS :% H Rر ا Qر &% ھKه ا إ C ا+ ا;: (إن H;Vت ا; 7 " ا;% 3+;} H R ;ر ا Qر; Current prices وا< H ; & aœ ;اد.Fixed H;Vت ا 03;2 اS :;% H R ;ر H ;ت ا R ;ر kb;3 &% ا 2 ا وھ; Kه ا;رة ا 2 ; "اS ج" ا 032 اS :% YQ+ ا ارة ا ھط وار 3 *ع. أ إ aاد إ:% ا 032 ا+% H Rر ا< H &G% ارة ا+; Y;Q+ إ:;% ا 03;2 ا+;% ا;ج a;r و! 7 ر 5 + ا 2 01 ا; ;eh اS ج. *A3 2 {+ ا 032 ا% H 2R 9 ر ا! ;;د ا;;دا% &;;% ا! ;;د ا;;% Y;;R إ:;;اء ا+;;ار G7;;% ;;د RH ;;\ام H;;0 ا+;;م اVS ;; 1 ;;م Stepwise X+`3 ا Qاول ا: ا!: a GH (SPSS) ات ا\ &% e ا*ح ا! د ادا% Ca ا! د ا% وا e ات ا (1994/85 XH 2004/95 م) YQV ادل ا او!رات ا Qرة إ C ا 032 ا+% اS :% ا! R <ر ا إ C ا 032 ا+% اS :% aد ا Aن ŽH!ف ل ا Aن إ C ا Qرة ا! R <ر ا إ C اة اا 1 اد: ا Y ا R % 2R &% ا Rس ا Y ا R % &% ا 2 ا اة اا ا R % Y ا ا GDP-U (1) a ادر + a ادر Ga د. ر gن + أ V ا c2 ا! ;د ا A ; (ا 2A;RSر: ;Y ا! ;د ;AH ا Q ;رة :; ا 2ARSر م) ص :
17 ب( ج( ار: (أ) H ت YQV ادل ا Qري ا Qرة إ C ا 032 ا+;% اS :;% و; ا! R ;<ر إ; C ا 03;2 ا+;% ( H ت ا Aن: ا Q >ز ا ي Vd ء. ( H ;;ت ا;;ة ا;;ا 1 : ا Q >;;ز ا ;;ي Vd ;;ء 3;; ا!*;;ح ا Q ;;ري و;;وط ا;;دل ا Q ;;ري *;;ة م أH " اR q\ H ت &% A3@ H ت ا s ; ا; 9H وا s ;ات ا; ا;% 3;Y إد 7 >; &;% 3+" ا!+ار ا\ G % اد & د اة اا 1 ا: 100 ا Y ا R % ا V 2R &% ا Rس ا Y ا R % ا V 2 ا ھKا a@ H! اد ا% اR \> ا J2 او% &% ا+ل Ca اة اا 1 وھ%: ˆ R ب GDP-U ا: 1. ا! a د +ل e Ca اج ا! د ادا% &% ا! د ا% Ca ا e ات اة &;h V;@ &;% اة و, اة. ا e ات Ca إ> ار &% دراR X او% اa ا J2 {; <HV "U" 2H وا;% %;23 ا 2 *; Utility ھ;% ; ;2 "< Y ھ% ا R % Y.2 Y ا <HV و R>. ھKا ن ا _ 2Hد و 2 * ا 2 د Utility of Money ھ% `;%2 1a +;زة ا 2 ;د (1) B2 3 &ه ر H ن وھ أ Rس ا G } Ca ا 2 د Hا& 9 ا=ت). وا Y ا R ;% &; ف ا% G3 أ C;a ا c ;اھ ا\*; ا ;د ;q أو,ھ;. و 3 ;\م ا s ات Ca " إV %1 س a% أX ار ;;م ا R ;; Sظ>;;ر ا s ;;ات ا! ;;د وا!: a ;; <;;" ا;;درات وا;;اردات و s3 ;;ات ا;;ة ا;;ا 1 واS ج وmA3 ا و 7 =&>. و 3 \م د!ت " Hش" ا +ب ار م Aت وأ Rر ادرات وااردات: 100 ( 100 ا Y ا R % ˆ Rر = 0 س ن ك ن 0 س ك ن 0 ك ن س ن 0 ك 1 س ن (2) ا Y ا R % Aت = أ 3;m ا;ة ا;ا 1 &>; أ;X 2a; ر; ا 03;2 ا;% ;و@ ; H ;و!ر ;<= ; دو; c>; 2; R; 5 ف 3 دل اى اا 1 (PPP) Purchase power Parity ا Kي ;ف ;XBH ذ; J ا; R 5 ف : C (3) ا Kي 3 وى 2aه اى اا 1 او &% اول ا\*). A;@ ا 7 ;ر ا 2 01; ا;% 3;Y ا 5 ;" إ>; R;a a;@ ا;ج ا! ;د ا;دا% &;% ا! ;د ا;% ذ J `ء Ca ا Qول ا%: H ت وا Stepwise اة ŒH :اء ا+ار G7% د RH \ام ط ا e ات RH \ام Stepwise إ:اء ا+ار G7% د RH \ام ط Year Rate Trade to GDP X1 Rate of Direct Investments To GDP X2 Population/ Trade X3 Rate of direct investment to Purchase Power X4 Trade Y (1) Hري "QR ا 2 د وا 2 ك وا! د :9 _HR ص: 776. (2) ا Q >ز ا ي Vd ء ادا% 3 ا!*ح ا Qري ووط ادل ا Qري :9 _HR ص: 3. 2 (3) أ. د. a ادر + a ادر Ga و د. ر gن + أ V ا c2 ا! د ا A :9 _HR ص:
18 Regression :(1994 Year Y X1 X2 X3 X ا*ة (85/ ا!+ار ا\ G % اد RH \ام ط (Stepwise) ( 1994/85 م): Descriptive Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N trade rate of trade to GDP rate of direct investment to GDP rate of population to trade rate of direct investment to purchase power Pearson Correlation Correlations trade rate of trade to GDP rate of direct investment to GDP rate of population to trade rate of direct investment to purchase power trade rate of trade to GDP rate of direct investment to GDP rate of population to trade
19 rate of direct investment to purchase power Sig. (1- tailed) trade rate of trade to GDP rate of direct investment to GDP rate of population to trade rate of direct investment to purchase power N trade rate of trade to GDP rate of direct investment to GDP rate of population to trade rate of direct investment to purchase power Variables Entered/ Removed (a) Model Variables Entered Variables Removed 1 rate of population to trade. 2 rate of direct investment to GDP. Method Stepwise (Criteria: Probability-of-F-to-enter <=.050, Probability-of-F-to-remove >=.100). Stepwise (Criteria: Probability-of-F-to-enter <=.050, Probability-of-F-to-remove >=.100). a Dependent Variable: trade Adjuste d R Square Model Summary Std. Error of the Estimate Change Statistics Model R R Square R Square Sig. F Change F Change df1 df2 Change 1.902(a) (b) a Predictors: (Constant), rate of population to trade b Predictors: (Constant), rate of population to trade, rate of direct investment to GDP. ANOVA (b) Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression (a) Residual Total Regression (b) Residual Total a Predictors: (Constant), rate of population to trade b Predictors: (Constant), rate of population to trade, rate of direct investment to GDP c Dependent Variable: trade 18
20 a Dependent Variable: trade Model Coefficients (a) Model Unstandardized Standardized 95% Confidence Interval Coefficients Coefficients for B t Sig. Std. Lower Upper B Beta Error Bound Bound 1 (Constant) rate of population to trade 2 (Constant) rate of population to trade rate of direct investment to GDP Excluded Variables (b) Beta In Partial Correlation Collinearit y Statistics t Sig. Tolerance 1 rate of trade to GDP.295(a) rate of direct investment to GDP.317(a) rate of direct investment to purchase power.180(a) rate of trade to GDP.149(b) rate of direct investment to purchase power.004(b) a Predictors in the Model: (Constant), rate of population to trade b Predictors in the Model: (Constant), rate of population to trade, rate of direct investment to GDP c Dependent Variable: trade Regression /95) :(2004 *ة (Stepwise) 01 ا!+ار اد RH \ام ط Year Y X1 X2 X3 X Descriptive Statistics Mean Std. Deviation N trade rate of trade to GDP rate of direct investment to GDP rate of population to trate rate of direct investment to purchase power
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