The Inevitability and Consequences of Mega-Disasters in a Crowded World

Transcription

1 The Inevitability and Consequences of Mega-Disasters in a Crowded World John J. Clague Centre for Natural Hazard Research Simon Fraser University NOAA Katrina 2005

2 Outline Hazard, risk, disasters, and catastrophes The frequency-magnitude concept Examples of mega-disasters Risk disparity

3 First, some basic definitions and concepts.

4 Hazard and risk Hazard The potential that something will cause loss or injury Risk = f (hazard, vulnerability, coping capacity) El Salvador, 2007

5 Types of hazards Natural Anthropogenic - Pandemics - Conflict (local, regional, global) - Famine

6 Natural hazards Earthquakes Tsunami Volcanic eruptions Landslides Snow avalanches Floods Cyclones Other severe weather Climate change

7 Catastrophes Earthquakes Tsunamis Volcanic eruptions Landslides Snow avalanches Floods Cyclones Other severe weather Climate change

8 Risk Injury and loss of life Economic (primary and secondary) Kobe 1995 Loma Prieta, 1989

9 Disaster A hazardous event that occurs over a limited period and affects a relatively small area and population Criteria* Ten or more people killed 0ne hundred or more people affected State of emergency is declared, or International assistance is requested Hoyvis et al., 2007, CRED, University of Louvain

10 Catastrophe* A massive disaster the requires significant expenditure of money and a long time for recovery *from the Greek katastrophe - an overturning; a sudden end

11 Onset. Instantaneous Earthquakes Tsunamis Days to weeks Floods Cyclones Volcanic eruptions Years Meteroite/asteroid impacts Decades Climate change

12 The scale of the phenomenon (not necessarily a fractal relation.

13 Frequency - magnitude concept and the inevitability of rare events

14 Frequency - magnitude concept and the inevitability of rare events

15 Frequency - magnitude concept and the inevitability of rare events

16 Show stopper Disaster Catastrophe Impact Cretaceous impact event Yellowstone mega-eruption Sea-level rise of 2 m Great earthquake in Tokyo Superstorm Sandy Boston marathon bombing High Low Likelihood

17 A catastrophe involves more than the scale A disaster can become a catastrophe due to lack of awareness or preparation Fukushima

18 Some examples of catastrophes Large meteorite/asteroid impact Super-eruption Hurricane Katrina Tohoku earthquake and tsunami San Francisco earthquake Sea-level rise

19 Large meteorite/asteroid impact Very rare Lots of lead time large extraterrestrial objects are being tracked Possible remediation

20 Super-eruption Not unprecedented, but very rare Some lead time Little or no public awareness No plan to deal with such an event

21 Hurricane Katrina Not unprecedented Was predicted Lead-time available to prepare False sense of security Poor preparation and terrible government response

22 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami Not unprecedented, but no historical example Was predicted by scientists Little lead time for tsunami False sense of security Poor preparation and government response Unexpected secondary effects

23 San Francisco earthquake $100B - $1000B damage

24 Sea-level rise A slo-mo catastrophe

25 Sea levels in the future A roll of the global dice How lucky do you feel?

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28 Likely scenarios ( cm) Tuvalu Time

29 Tuvalu Time

30 Plausible scenarios (+ 1 m)

31 Worst-case scenarios (+ 6 m).

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33 Inundation Katrina

34 250,000 people live on the Fraser Fig. 15 Delta < 1 m above mean sea level NRCan

35 Risk trends Kobe 1995 Anchorage 1964

36 Many hazards are constant in time Keller et al

37 And are also constant in space USGS National Earthquake Information Center,

38 However, risk continues to increase Yesterday s disasters are tomorrow s catastrophes. Why is this? Keller et al. 2007

39 The answer is not rocket science! Earth s population is increasing Keller et al Population density (persons/km2)

40 Istanbul 11 Baghdad - 5 Tehran - 7 Lahore - 6 Dacca 11 Tokyo-Yokohama 34 Osaka 11 Manila - 11 Jakarta 10 San Francisco 5 Los Angeles 13 Mexico City 18 Bogota 7 Santiago 5 Lima 7

41 .Wealth is being concentrated in earthquake-prone areas Tokyo Tokyo Metropolitan Museum Los Angeles Roy Tennant

42 3 rd GNP of Japan of world s countries GNP of California In top ten in the world

43 .Economic integration increases mega-disaster risk

44 Risk disparity A disaster in a rich country may be a catastrophe in a poor one A comparison of the 2010 Haiti and New Zealand earthquakes..

45 2010 Haiti earthquake

46 2011 New Zealand earthquake - Magnitude: Population within 50 km of epicentre: 350,000 - Deaths: Direct damage: USD 11 billion

47 Some questions to think about Should we concern ourselves with mega-disasters? (Does the precautionary principle apply in such a cases?) Is it possible to reduce risk from mega-disasters in a crowded, economically integrated world? Can we take action to prevent slo-mo catastrophes climate warming, pandemics? How do we increase resilience for coping with disasters and catastrophes?

48 The End