Preliminary Analysis and Classification of Natural Disasters

Transcription

1 Preliminary Analysis and Classification of Natural Disasters Prof. S.C. Wirasinghe, PEng (APEGA) Ms. H.J. Caldera Ms. S.W. Durage SCHULICH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING WES 2013 Singapore September 2013

2 Outline Natural Hazards Vs. Natural Disaster Proposed Definitions for Natural Events Fatality Based Disaster Scale Advantages of the Scale Limitations Conclusions

3 Natural Hazards Natural Disasters Natural hazards Uncontrollable forces Natural disasters Consequence of natural hazards interacting with human activity & infrastructure Adversely affects human (& animal) communities Human vulnerability

4 Different terminology Background No clear sense of scale No consistent method to define events The vocabulary, context and the interpretations of each term is not fixed in the literature (Kelman; 2008) Need consistent scale to describe the disaster continuum

5 A scale for disasters Objectives impacted population; fatalities, affected area, damaged homes; economic cost Multidimensional scale A preliminary scale Top ten fatality records for a selected set of disasters

6 Various Definitions Dictionary Emergency Disaster Catastrophe Calamity Cataclysm Oxford A serious, A sudden accident or a An event causing great and An event causing A large-scale and violent unexpected, and natural catastrophe usually sudden damage or great and often event in the natural world often dangerous that causes great suffering; a disaster sudden damage or situation requiring damage or loss of life distress; a disaster immediate action Merriam- An urgent need for A sudden calamitous A violent and sudden A disastrous event Flood, deluge Webster assistance or relief event bringing great change in a feature of marked by great loss Catastrophe damage, loss, or the earth and lasting distress destruction A violent usually and suffering destructive natural event (as a supernova) Dictionary.r A state, especially of A calamitous event, A sudden and A great misfortune or Physical eference.co need for especially one widespread disaster disaster, as a flood or Geography. A m help or relief, created occurring suddenly and Geology. A sudden, serious injury. sudden and violent by some unexpected causing great loss of violent disturbance, physical action event life, damage, or especially of a part of producing changes hardship, as a flood, the surface of the in the earth's airplane crash, or earth; cataclysm. surface. business failure. An extensive flood; deluge.

7 Various Definitions Contd. Dictionary Emergency Disaster Catastrophe Calamity Cataclysm Google A serious, unexpected, and A sudden event, such as an An event causing great and An event causing A large-scale and violent Glossary often dangerous situation accident or a natural often sudden damage or great and often sudden event in the natural world. requiring immediate action. catastrophe, that causes suffering damage or distress; a great damage or loss of life. disaster. Disaster and distress Thefreedicti A serious situation or An occurrence causing A great, often sudden An event that brings terrible A violent upheaval that onary.com occurrence that widespread destruction and calamity loss, lasting distress, or causes great destruction happens distress; a catastrophe A sudden violent severe affliction; a disaster or brings about a unexpectedly and change in the earth's fundamental change. demands immediate surface; a cataclysm A violent and sudden action. change in the earth's A condition of crust. urgent need for A devastating flood. action or assistance Wikipedia A situation that poses an A natural or man -made An extremely large-scale A disaster, a terrible event Any immediate risk to health, hazard resulting in an event disaster, a horrible event. catastrophic geological life, of substantial extent causing phenomenon (volcanic property or environment significant physical damage eruption, earthquake), or destruction, loss of life, or the result of a sudden drastic change to the release of energy in the environment. Earth's crust that creates seismic waves More generally any large-scale disaster

8 Proposed Draft Order & Definitions for Natural Events EMERGENCY: A sudden natural event that causes damage, injuries and some fatalities DISASTER: A major natural event that causes significant damage, many serious injuries and many fatalities CATASTROPHE: A large scale natural disturbance that causes severe destruction, major amount of injuries and extensive fatalities CALAMITY: A very large scale natural disturbance that causes widespread destruction, massive amount of injuries and a great loss of life CATACLYSM: An extremely large scale natural upheaval, that causes widespread devastation, uncountable amount of injuries and unimaginable loss of life

9 Severity Levels of a Flood Catastrophe Calamity Cataclysm Disaster Emergency

10 Disaster Profile Types of disaster Natural disasters Manmade Disasters Group Biological events Geophysical events Meteorological events Hydrological events Climatological events Extraterrestrial events Main Type Mass movement dry (triggered by ground shaking) Earthquakes Volcanoes Storms Floods Mass movement wet Meteorite/ Asteroid Sub-Type Avalanche Rock fall Landslide Subsidence Ground shaking Tsunamis Volcanic eruption Tropical cyclones/ storms Extra tropical cyclones Local/ Convective storms General (river) floods Flash floods Storm surges/ Coastal floods Rock falls Landslides Avalanches Subsidence Sub- Sub Type Snow avalanche Debris avalanche Sub-Sub Mudslide Type Lahars Debris flow Sudden subsidence Long-lasting subsidence Hurricanes Typhoons Cyclones Winter storms Severe/ Generic storms Thunderstorms/ Lightning Hailstorms Snowstorms/ Blizzard Tornadoes Sandstorms/ Dust storms Orographic storms/ Strong winds Debris flow Snow avalanche Debris avalanche Sudden subsidence Long-lasting subsidence

11 Selected Set of Disasters Earthquake Flash flood Flood Forest fire Landslide Lightning Cyclone Hurricane Tornado Meteoroid strike Tsunami Volcano eruption

12 Deadliest Events Type Fatalities Year Event Cyclone/ Hurricane 500, Bhola cyclone - East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) Earthquake 830, Shaanxi Province, China Flash Flood 2, Dam Failure-Johnstown, Pennsylvania, U.S.A. Flood 2,500, Yangtze, Huai and Yellow River- Central China Forest fire 1, Peshtigo Fire - Wisconsin, U.S.A. Land slide 100, Ningxia, China Lightning Palace of the Grand Master Explosion-Rhodes, Greece Meteoroid Not Available Tornado 1, Daulatpur-Salturia Tornado - Manikganj, Bangladesh Tsunami 230, Indian Ocean Tsunami Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand Volcano 92, Mount Tambora - Indonesia

13 Factors that Distinguish One Disaster from the Other Physical Aspects Type Definition Magnitude Flood An overflow of a large amount of water beyond its normal limits, especially over what is normally dry land Prediction/Detection Peak level of the water at a particular location in a waterway Occurrence (Frequency/No. of Events) 100-year flood or 500- year flood to convey the idea of the frequency of a flood of certain magnitude Type Flood Ability to Detect and Track Can be predicted Mechanism Using Rainfall intensity measurements, river flow data and prediction models Estimated Time Days

14 Factors that Distinguish One Disaster from the Other Contd. Impacts Type Fatalities Total No. of Affected People Area Destroyed Economic Loss Damage Extent Flood 2,500, China floods 238,973,000- China P Rep, General flood Thailand: Phichit, Nakhon Sawan, Phra Nakhon Si Ayuttaya, Pathumthani, Nonthaburi, Bangkok- Thailand, 2011 Economic damage cost- US$ 40,000 million - Thailand, 2011 City-Region- Continent Mitigation Measures Type Flood Mitigation Flood Barriers; Structural measures to improve flood safety in housing construction; Early warning systems; land use restrictions

15 Extreme Value Distribution (EVD) EVDs are the limiting distributions for the largest or the smallest of a very large collection of random observations from the same arbitrary distribution For example Flood frequency analysis : 100 year flood discharge Reliability modelling : System failure time

16 Extreme Value Distribution contd. Three related ways of identifying extremes in real data Block maxima (X 2, X 6,X 15,X 16,X 23 ) The largest (r th ) order statistics within blocks 2 nd order statistics (X 2,X 3,X 6,X 8,X 12,X 15,X 16,X 18,X 23,X 25 ) Extremes that exceed a high threshold (X 2,X 3,X 6,X 7,X 8,X 15,X 23,X 24,X 25 )

17 Fatality Based Disaster Classification Top 10 fatality records for each disaster type Mean : 112,135 and standard deviation : 290, Histogram of Fatality Weibull Shape Scale N 97 Frequency Fatality

18 EVD for Each Type of Disaster Type of Disaster Extreme Value Distribution Cyclone/ Hurricane Earthquake Flash Flood Flood Forest fire Land slide Lightning Meteoroid Tornado Frechet (α= , µ=0, σ= ) = exp {- (x/ ) } Tsunami Volcano Frechet (α= , µ=0, σ= ) = exp {- (x/ ) }

19 Extreme Tornado Outbreaks for United States

20 Fatality Based Disaster Scale µ ~ 100,000 and σ ~ 300,000 Type Fatality Range Example Emergency µ σ F < µ σ 1 F < 10 A small landslide that kills one person Disaster Type 1 µ σ F < µ-0.333σ 10 F < 100 Edmonton tornado, Canada that killed 27 people Disaster Type 2 µ-0.333σ F < µ-0.33σ 100 F < 1,000 Thailand flood-2011 that resulted in a total of 815 deaths Catastrophe Type 1 µ-0.33σ F < µ-0.3σ 1,000 F < 10,000 Hurricane Katrina-2005, U.S.A that killed 1833 people Catastrophe Type 2 µ-0.3σ F < µ 10,000 F < 100,000 Tohuku earthquake and tsunami-2011, Japan that killed people Calamity Type 1 µ F < µ+3σ 100,000 F < 1,000,000 Haiti earthquake 2010 killed 316,000 people Calamity Type 2 µ+3σ F < µ+33σ 1,000,000 F < 10M China floods-1931 death toll >2,500,000 Cataclysm Type 1 µ+33σ F < µ+333σ 10M F < 100M - Cataclysm Type 2 µ+333σ F < µ+3333σ 100M F < 1B Super Volcano (e.g. Yellowstone) Estimated deaths <1B Meteor strike (diameter > 1.5 Km) - Partial or Full estimated deaths :<1.5*10 µ+33333σ F < µ+33333σ 1B F < 10B Extinction Pandemic (Avian influenza) estimated deaths : <2.8B Lowest limit of fatality(f) = μ σ = 1

21 Meteoroid impact Type Flash Forest Lightning Tornado Volcano Land Cyclone/ Meteoroid Earthquake Tsunami Flood Flood Fire slide Hurricane Impact Emergency Disaster Type 1 Disaster Type 2 Catastrophe Type 1 Catastrophe Type 2 Calamity Type 1 Calamity Type 2 Cataclysm Type 1 Cataclysm Type 2 Partial or Full Extinction Disaster Classification Does not have fatalities in recorded history Has the potential to vary (emergency - cataclysm level)

22 Disaster Classification Contd. Type Volcano Emergency Disaster Type 1 Disaster Type 2 Catastrophe Type 1 Catastrophe Type 2 Event Galeras Volcano : Colombia (1993) - 9 deaths Mt. St. Helens Volcano : United States (1980) - 57 deaths Pinatuba Volcano : Philippines (1991) deaths Laki Volcano : Iceland (1783) - 9,350 deaths Mount Tambora Volcano : Indonesia (1815) - 92,000 deaths Tornado Type Emergency Disaster Type 1 Disaster Type 2 Catastrophe Type 1 Event (Tornado Outbreaks) Saroma, Hokkaidō Tornado : Japan (2006) - 9 deaths Marshfield MO Tornado : USA (1930) - 99 deaths Bangladesh Tornado : Bangladesh (1969) deaths Daulatpur - Salturia Tornado : Manikganj, Bangladesh (1989) - 1,300 deaths

23 Advantages of the Scale Overall place of each type of disaster Easy to recognize an event occurrence and enter it into a database Good foundation to develop an advanced scale to classify disaster occurrences worldwide

24 Limitations Twin or more disasters Armageddon events (Asteroids; Large Meteors; Super Volcanoes) Winter disaster events Slow-moving disasters Population increase & economic expansion

25 Conclusion Initial step of scale development process Multidimensional scale to understand the disaster continuum All types of disasters at different levels Various parameters Example: Event magnitude, number of fatalities, affected population and impact area

26 Thank You!