Local Weather History

Transcription

1 Local Weather History to minute sessions ACTIVITY OVERVIEW P RO J E C T Students design and conduct a survey to learn about the history of weather disasters in the local area, and then compare the level of risk indicated by risk maps to local weather history. KEY CONCEPTS AND PROCESS SKILLS (with correlation to NSE 5 8 Content Standards) 1. Weather is the outdoor conditions (such as temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, etc.) at a particular time and place. (EarthSci: 2) 2. The level of risk of a weather-related disaster differs by region. (Perspectives: 4) 3. Surveys can be used to gather information about a population. (NCTM Data Analysis and Probability: Formulate Questions) 4. Meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, climatologists, and hydrologists study different aspects of Earth s weather and atmosphere. Society relies on the information provided by such scientists. (History: 1) KEY VOCABULARY atmosphere (formally defined later in the unit) atmospheric scientist risk weather E-27

2 Activity 52 Local Weather History MATERIALS AND ADVANCE PREPARATION For the teacher 1 Transparency 52.1, Top U.S. Weather Events of the 20th Century * 1 overhead projector For each student 1 Student Sheet 52.1, Sample Survey (optional) 1 Science Skills Student Sheet 3a and 3b, Bar Graphing Checklist (optional) *Not supplied in kit Masters for Science Skills Student Sheets 3a and 3b, Bar Graphing Checklist can be found in Teacher Resources II: Diverse Learners. TEACHING SUMMARY Getting Started 1. Use Transparency 52.1 to introduce extreme weather events. Doing the Activity 2. The class designs and conducts a survey. Follow-Up 3. The class shares and analyzes survey results.if this works) REFERENCES U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA Releases Century s Top Weather, Water, and Climate Events (press release). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, December 13, Retrieved September 2005 from E-28

3 Local Weather History Activity 52 TEACHING SUGGESTIONS GETTING STARTED 1. Use Transparency 52.1 to introduce extreme weather events. Ask students to brainstorm a list of types of weather disasters. Emphasize that they should try to focus on those natural disasters that are related to weather. Then accept all of their responses. Possible responses include tornadoes, floods, storm surges, hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons, snowstorms, blizzards, icestorms, hailstorms, thunderstorms, lightning strikes, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires. Help students edit the list by grouping similar types of disasters together. For example, snowstorms, blizzards, and icestorms could all be grouped together. Teacher s Note: Some students may suggest earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis (or tidal waves) as types of weather disasters. These natural disasters are due to changes in and on the earth and are not weather-related. Ask students, Which of these types of weather disasters do you think have most severely affected the United States? In 1999, climatologists, meteorologists, and hydrologists at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) compiled a list of the most notable weather, water, and climate events in the United States in the 20th century. Transparency 52.1, Top U.S. Weather Events of the 20th Century, summarizes that list. Criteria for selection included an event s magnitude, meteorological uniqueness, economic impact, and death toll. The list contains six hurricanes, three tornadoes, three storms, two floods, two El Niño episodes, and the Dust Bowl. Have students compare their predictions to this list. Point out that the list is limited to events that occurred in the 20th century. Ask students, Are there any events that have occurred since the year 2000 that you would want to add to the list? Students may suggest hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) as well as other notable weather events that have occurred regionally or nationally. DOING THE ACTIVITY 2. The class designs and conducts a survey. Use Student Sheet 52.1, Sample Survey, to help students construct their own survey or as the actual survey conducted by the class. Note that if you share all aspects of the sample survey with the class, they are likely to develop a very similar set of questions. If students are constructing their own survey, remind them that a survey collects information from a group of people about a topic. The quality and clarity of the questions asked help determine the quality of the results obtained. The questions in Procedure Step 2 give further guidance. Brainstorm answers to these questions, and then discuss how to develop survey questions. You might discuss the number of questions that would be reasonable on a short survey, the numbers of open-ended and close-ended responses, the exact information the survey should obtain, and how to construct questions that are clear and unbiased. Students can test the quality and clarity of questions by asking someone not involved in developing the survey to respond to trial questions, or by brainstorming possible responses that may cause problems. Continue to work on the survey questions until they clearly and concisely reflect the goal of the survey. Discuss the population that the class will survey. Because it is usually not possible to ask the questions of everyone in a large population, surveys are usually based on sample populations. How the sample is chosen affects the reliability of results. Planning a survey involves identifying and describing the people who may be able to provide the information that you want to gather; this group is known as the target population. The group targeted may be, for example, only students, only parents, or only residents who have lived in the area for at least 10 years. The decision of who to survey may affect some of the questions that are asked. Discuss this idea with the class, making sure that everyone understands the importance of defining the target population. E-29

4 Activity 52 Local Weather History Clarify classroom expectations by identifying the target population and determining the number of people each student will survey and by what date. FOLLOW-UP 3. The class shares and analyzes survey results. After students have completed surveying their assigned number of people in the target population, have them merge their data, question by question, with all the other students data. Discuss each category of disaster to determine if survey results are referring to different individuals experience of the same event. For example, after identifying the number of respondents who described experiences with floods, focus on floods and identify the year in which respondents experienced the event. Are survey respondents describing the same event? If so, they can then compare the response data from questions such as Question 9 to identify similarities and differences in how people described the same event. If survey respondents appear to be describing different events, make a list of the different events under one disaster category (for example, 1993 flood, 1997 flood, and 2000 flood). Construct a chart, similar to the one shown below, to record the number of survey responses to any question(s) that is similar to Question 5 from Student Sheet Instruct students to use this data to make the graph described in Analysis Question 2. Sample Chart Number of times each event has occurred locally: Blizzard Drought Flood Heat wave Tornado Have students share the responses to other survey questions one event at a time. Those whose respondents experienced the 1993 flood would then pool their survey responses and summarize general observations of the weather or the event, noting similarities and differences. Continue the process until all locally experienced events have been described. Use Analysis Question 4 to discuss the reliability of the survey and the level of risk it seems to indicate for your local area. You may wish to compare survey results to disasters described on Transparency 52.1 and see if disasters that occurred in your region were referred to by survey participants. Bring out the idea that the reliability of this survey is to some extent a reflection of the surveyed people s breadth of experience in the local area, and their memories. Disparities in and limits of memories are part of the reason that written records are kept. Facts recorded systematically are a more accurate way to keep track of events and discern trends. SUGGESTED ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS 1. a. According to the class data, what type of weather disaster is most common in your area? Answers will vary by area. Snowstorms are most common in the northern United States. Hurricanes are most common along Gulf states and the eastern seaboard. Tornadoes are most common in the Midwest, floods occur in various parts of the country, and all parts of the United States are vulnerable to droughts. b. When did such a disaster last occur? Answers will vary by area. It is likely that severe weather has occurred in the general region within the last year, but not necessarily a disaster and not necessarily in the local area. c. What can you do to prepare for such a disaster if it happens again? Answers depend on the type of disaster. Disaster preparedness often involves having basic supplies (food, blankets, flashlights, and fuel) and communication (cordless radio or cellphone) available, as well as listening to and following local warnings and recommendations, such as staying indoors or evacuating the area. E-30

5 Local Weather History Activity Use your class data to create a bar graph of the number of times different types of weather disasters have occurred locally. Be sure to label your axes and to title your graph. Answers will vary depending on region. A sample graph is shown below. Sample Graph of Local Weather Disaster Survey Results Number of Events Do you think that the survey was a reliable method for finding out what weather disasters have occurred in your area in the past 30 years? Why or why not? The survey is likely to be more reliable for recent events (within the past five years, for example) than over a 30-year period. This is partly because of limits on the accessibility of an appropriate target population, as well as the limitations of human memory. 5. Reflection: Which type of weather disaster are you most concerned about? Why? While students answers will vary, they are most likely to be concerned about those disasters for which your area is at the greatest risk. If a largescale weather disaster has occurred in the region within recent memory, students may be most concerned about a similar event occurring again, regardless of its relative likelihood. 0 Blizzard Drought Flood Heat wave Tornado Local Weather Disasters 3. Look again at the risk maps on page E-9 of Activity 50, Weather Effects. Did your class survey results support your local risk of hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes, as indicated by the maps? Answers will vary by region. Regions that have had a spate of weather disasters recently but have had fewer such disasters historically may appear to be at greater risk than described by the risk maps. Regions that have had few disasters recently but have had such disasters frequently in the past may appear at lesser risk than described by the risk maps. E-31

6 Top United States Weather Events of the 20th Century Year Disaster Most Affected Areas 1900 Hurricane Galveston, Texas 1925 Tri-state Tornado Missouri, Illinois, Indiana s Great Okeechobee Hurricane and Flood Dust Bowl Florida Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico 1935 Labor Day Hurricane Florida Keys 1938 New England Hurricane 1950 Storm of the Century 1969 Hurricane Camille Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York 22 states affected by strong winds and snow Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia 1974 Super Tornado Outbreak 13 states affected 1978 New England Blizzard El Niño episodes Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut Affected weather throughout the U.S The Regents of the University of California 1992 Hurricane Andrew Florida, Louisiana 1993 Great Midwest Flood 9 states affected 1993 Superstorm More than 8 states affected El Niño episodes Affected weather throughout the U.S Tornado outbreak Oklahoma, Kansas Issues and Earth Science Transparency 52.1 E-33

7 Name Date Sample Survey 1. Survey of weather disaster history of (your town and state) 2. Today s date 3. Name and age of person surveyed 4. Has lived here for years. 5. What is the worst weather event (including snowstorms, thunderstorms, floods, hurricanes, tornados, droughts, heat waves) that you have ever experienced living in this area? 6. When did each of these events happen? 7. Where were you when each event happened? 8. Please describe your experience of one of these events in more detail. 9. Describe what you remember about any of the following weather events: 2006 The Regents of the University of California Temperature Precipitation (rainfall/snowfall) Air pressure Cloud cover Wind direction Wind speed Issues and Earth Science Student Sheet 52.1 E-35