Meeting the Challenges of Earthquake Risk Dynamics and Globalisation

Transcription

1 Check Against Delivery. Embargoed until 4:15 PM, 5 November 2010 Meeting the Challenges of Earthquake Risk Dynamics and Globalisation by Jochen Zschau GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany Session 7, Workshop 7.2: Adaptation Strategies II: Impact on Man Our Common Future, Essen, November 5th, 2010 Our Common Future, Hannover/Essen, 2-6 November 2010 (

2 Meeting the Challenges of Earthquake Risk Dynamics and -Globalisation The Messages Earthquake risk is highly dynamic and currently exhibits significant global change! Monitoring earthquake risk is a great scientific challenge! An integrated natural risk monitoring programme on a global scale is overdue! Jochen Zschau, GFZ Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam

3 The Urban Explosion An Important Driver of Risk Dynamics and -Globalisation New York 12.3 >60 7 Megacities (over 5 5 Mill.) Moscow Dhaka London 8.7 Istanbul Toronto 6.34 Calcutta Bogota 10.8 Dortmund 5.3 Los Angeles Tehran 8.86 Moscow 5.4 Beijing New York Mexico City London 7.59 Seoul 8.88 Guatemala City 5.3 Tokyo 6.9 Cairo It is mainly effecting the Kabul 6.56 developing world! Lima10.32 Lagos Karachi Tokyo Bengaluru 9.92 Rio de Janeiro Shanghai Osaka It is followed by a dramatic increase Kinshasa Mumbai of vulnerability Santiago 6.71 Buenos São Paulo Aires Chennai 8.88 Metro Manila Buenos Aires Jakarta and risk! Source: National Geographic, Nov www. citymayors.com 2010 Risk Dynamics and Global Change

4 In the Industrialized World: Growing Networking of Infrastructure and Economy! The seismic risk globalises and increases exponentially! US$ 180,000,000 US$ 260,000,000,000? San Francisco 1906 US$ 2,800,000,000 San Francisco 20?? US$ 2,000,000,000,000? Tokyo 1923 Tokyo 20?? Risk Dynamics and Global Change

5 A Burning Scientific Challenge: Monitoring and predicting global change of earthquake risk Risk Dynamics and Global Change

6 Risk Dynamics and Global Change Earthquake Hazard in Europe They occur at the contact between man and nature! Vulnerability-Indicator from night lighting as observed from space Changing Hazard Risk Dynamics Changing Vulnerability Risk dynamics is determined by both hazard and vulnerability! Jimenez et al., 2003

7 Hazard (Intensity with 10% probability over the next 5 decades) Seismic Hazard Assessment State of the Art Germany global Hazard Germany Intensity (EMS) III IV V VI VII national VIII Cross-boundary Meeting the Challenges Statistical, stationary approach! The hazard is treated as time-independent! Not appropriate for monitoring hazard!

8 - Istanbul Probability of an earthquake with M>7 in the next 3 decades Coulomb stress = shear stress - (normal stress - P) where = coeffcient of friction P = pore pressure from LORENZO-MARTIN (2006) btw: 1 MPa = 10 bar Earthquake Interaction: An important reason for time-dependent hazard!

9 Seismicity Changes Decreasing Ice Loading 2009 L Aquila,Italy, Sequence Stiphout et al., GRL 2010 Glacier Induced Silent Earthquakes Triggered Seismicity (Geothermal Drilling,.) Many More Reasons For Time-Dependent Earthquake Hazard Seismic Aftershocks Earthquake-Volcanoe Interaction Merapi 1992 Landers, Volcano, California, Indonesia Aftershock Sequence Hainzl et al., JGR 2009

10 Risk (Damage with 10% prob. over the next 5 decades) Vulnerabilityand Risk Assessment State of the Art Some cities,only a few national examples, not homogeneous, not cross-boundary, not global! Germany Risk Potential (in Mio.EUR) No Appartment monitoring houses tool for earthquake risk in place! Tyagunov Italy Masonry and RC buildings Crowley et al. 2006

11 Monitoring Vulnerability and Risk The capability has to be built up! New Tools are needed! satellite remote sensing Ground based panoramic street view with mobile 3D-camera

12 Street View for the Assessment of Structural Vulnerability Pittor e& Wieland (GFZ) Geometrical Features Structure from Motion Texture and Colour segmentation Bishkek/Kirgistan 3D-Information Vulnerability Related Parameters Height Number of Storeys Shape, Volume Windows Soft/Weak Storeys

13 However, an INTEGRATED The VULNERABILITY Many Facettes AND RISK MODELLING of Vulnerability AND MONITORING PROGRAMME, in particular on a global scale, is not in place! They are important and in common for practically all types of natural hazards! financial structural Vulnerability economic environmental social

14 GEM The Global Earthquake Model A public/private partnership for mapping, monitoring, predicting and communicating complex earthquake risk globally However: An integrated Secretariat programme Governments, industry, is Initiated needed! in Science organisations, Started by the OECD, Raise Pavia/Italy from awareness! the World Stimulate Bank, OECD- ISDR, UNESCO, >150 Global scientific GFZ mitigation! Reduce Science institutions! Forum in Official damage! Potsdam start Save lives March 2009 Secure our common future!