NATURAL HAZARDS MISSION AREA SAFRR Project: Science Applica>on for Risk Reduc>on
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1 NATURAL HAZARDS MISSION AREA SAFRR Project: Science Applica>on for Risk Reduc>on The Scenario 1 Natural Hazards: Earthquake Volcanic Erup>on Landslide Flood Geomagne>c Storm Wildfire Tsunami Coastal Erosion Environmental Health Hazards: Sources Transport Fate Exposures Health effects Environmental baselines
2 Principles of a Scenario 1. A single, large but plausible event (realis>c but not worst case) 2. An event we need to be ready for 3. Integrate across many disciplines 4. Best hazards science 5. Consensus among leading experts. Cra`ed with community partners. Results presented in products that fit the user A tool to help visualize, plan, & prepare.
3 Scenario Construc>on POLICY Environmental and Social Sciences Engineering Earthquake Warning & Forecas>ng Communi>es At Fisk Fire Following Structures, Codes Internet Economy Environmental Health Interdependencies Lifelines Earth Science Landslides Liquefac>on Shaking Fault Rupture and A`erslip, A`ershocks
4 The HayWired Scenario Hypothe)cal Earthquake for Planning M.0, Oakland hypocenter, 4:18 pm, April 18, 2018 Hayward fault rupture Most urbanized fault in the na>on Followed over the next weeks by a series of plausible a`ershocks Bay Area life will go haywire Hits a center of our modern, wired & wireless world Tests our connectedness (earth, lifelines, community, technology) Earthquake Planning Scenario -- ShakeMap for haywiredm.0 Scenario Scenario Date: Apr 18, :18:00 UTC M.0 N3.80 W Depth: 8.0km 5 5 Clearlake San Francisco Fairfield Fremont 9 San Jose Santa Cruz 8 Sacramento Salinas Rocklin 5 Stockton Soledad PLANNING SCENARIO ONLY -- Map Version 33 Processed :59:0 UTC PERCEIVED SHAKING POTENTIAL DAMAGE PEAK ACC.(%g) PEAK VEL.(cm/s) INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY Scale based upon Worden et al. (2012) 4 8 Merced SCENARIO km 0 50 Coalinga Not felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very strong Severe Violent Extreme none none none Very light Light Moderate Mod./Heavy Heavy Very Heavy < >139 < >18 I II-III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+
5 Font Size Test: HayWired: Landslide & Liquefac>on EXPLANATION Probability of liquefaction in western Alameda County C o n t r a C o s t a < 0.05 Historical liquefaction point Historical liquefaction line Historical liquefaction area m depth to groundwater contour Inland waterways > 0.5 Not assessed Oakland Alameda Area where Holzer and others' (2008, 2010) methods are used to map liquefaction probability Livermore S a Hayward Va lle d yo e la o Quarry Lakes Regional Alameda Recreation Area La gun a c Arroyo ro F r B an a y ci s Ar n 2001 El Salvador earthquakeinduced landslide Cr ee k Fremont A l a m e d a S a n M a t e o ± MILES KILOMETERS Historical liquefaction data from Knudsen and others (2000). Depth to groundwater contour data from California Geological Survey, 201. Hydrology from U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset, 201. Boundary data from U.S. Census Bureau TIGER data, 201. North American Datum of 1983 UTM 10N projection. Central meridian, 123 W., latitude of origin, 0.0 N. S a n t a C l a r a Liquefac>on in San Francisco Marina, Loma Prieta Earthquake 1989 Full Logo:
6 Fire Following Earthquake Earthquake damage causes mul>ple simultaneous igni>ons For each fire sta>on s first due area: Es>mated number of igni>ons Likelihood of water service a`er mainshock Final burned area ($billions) Fire sta>ons risk of damage in mainshock Communica>on breakdowns Resources (medical, SAR, hazmat ) Water supply vs. fire figh>ng Tohuku, Japan 1995 Kobe, Japan
7 Three Grand Objec>ves 1. Improve communica>on and use of earthquake science 2. Help understand and reduce earthquake risk 3. Help build community capacity to respond and recovery
8 Some Specific HayWired Objec>ves Improve understanding of the benefits of earthquake early warning Facilitate conversa>ons about lifeline restora>on interdependencies (exercises on-going) Educate about building code performance and public preferences for the building code Help an>cipate environmental health issues Help prepare for communi>es-at-risk, e.g., popula>on displacement Engage stakeholders in the discussions about the vulnerabili>es and resilience in cyber infrastructure & the internet economy Provide materials for emergency response, business con>nuity and recovery exercises
9 The 2018 HayWired Scenario Launch 1. April 18, 2018 at 4:18PM event launch 2. Year of ac>vi>es planned in roll-up to Engaging private sector, academic, government stakeholders 4. Suppor>ng regional readiness ac>ons A tool to help visualize, plan, & prepare.
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GIS for the United Nations and the International Community Conference Panel: GIS and Capacity - How Territorial Planning Benefits from Geospatial Information 3-5 April 2012 Geneva, Switzerland GIS as a
Resiliency of Power Grids After Earthquakes
Resiliency of Power Grids After Earthquakes John Eidinger, Alex Tang ATC 16th US - Japan - New Zealand Workshop Nara, June 27-29, 2016 eidinger@geengineeringsystems.com alexktang@mac.com No Power = No