IQUIQUE: A CASE STUDY FOR HAZUS IMPLEMENTATION IN CHILE.

Transcription

1 IQUIQUE: A CASE STUDY FOR HAZUS IMPLEMENTATION IN CHILE. Paula Aguirre / paula.aguirre@cigiden.cl Jorge Vásquez, Juan Carlos de la Llera, Andrea Vásquez, Felipe Rivera. December 9th, 215 1

2 OUTLINE 1. Chile: Geophysical Setting and Natural Disasters 2. Risk Analysis, HAZUS and A Case Study. 3. Iquique Inventory: Data Collection and Analysis. 4. Seismic and Tsunami Scenarios for Northern Chile. 5. Fragility and Vulnerability. 6. Current Results & Future Work.

3 1 3 CHILE: GEOPHYSICAL SET TING AND NATURAL DISASTERS

4 CHILE: THE GEOPHYSICAL CONTEXT 4

5 214 Mw=8.2 Coquimbo Gap Constitución Concepción Gap Arica- Antofagasta Gap CHILE: THE GEOPHYSICAL CONTEXT 5 21 Mw= Mw=8.4 Source: USGS CIGIDEN

6 CHILE: THE MAULE 21 EARTHQUAKE (27F) February 27th 21, 3:34 AM. Slip model, from inversion of InSAR data (Fortuño et al. 215) Bilateral rupture of ~5 km along the interplate contact. Mw=8.8 6 Epicenter: (35.99 S, W) Depth: 35 km CIGIDEN

7 CHILE: THE MAULE 21 EARTHQUAKE (27F) February 27th 21, 3:34 AM. 7 First tsunami waves hit Valparaíso and Maule regions at 3:49 AM, and continue until morning. Maximum runup of 29 m at Constitución, flow depths up to 17 m. No official evacuation alert was issued. De la Llera et al. 212, after Fritz et CIGIDEN al. 211.

8 CHILE: THE MAULE 21 EARTHQUAKE (27F) 12 million people affected (7% of national population) 562 fatalities,15 caused by the tsunami (ONEMI) housing units damaged. 2.8% of tall reinforced concrete buildings with substantial damage (De la Llera et al. 212). Damage to buildings, schools, hospitals and infrastructure. USD 3. million in losses 8 CIGIDEN

9 DIAGNOSTICS AND INITITIATIVES AFTER 27F. Diagnostics Massive systemic failure. Available research and knowledge did not reach society. Interdisciplinary research needed to tackle society issues. Significant investment for improvement of technical organisms responsible for disaster alerts and management. ONEMI (National Emergency Office of the Ministry of Interior and Public Safety) CSN (National Seismological Centre) SHOA (Chilean Navy Hidrographic and Oceanographic Service). Initiatives CONICYT/FONDAP program called for Excellence Research Centers in priority areas to create of consolidate research teams. Scientific basis, improve social resiliency, coordination with national institutions. 9 CIGIDEN

10 TOP & EARTHQUAKE. PISAGUA 214 Mw=8.2 April 1st 214. Earthquake Mw=8.4 Sept. 16th 215. Minor ~ 1. m inundation height in Iquique Tsunami ~ 4.5 m inundation height in Coquimbo. 6 (indirect) Fatalities Damaged houses Damage to roads and port facilities 1 ILLAPEL 215 Other damage Damage to patrimonial adobe constructions CIGIDEN

11 OTHER RECENT EVENTS IN CHILE. Villarrica eruption, March 215 Chañaral flash floods, March 215 Calbuco eruption, April Tocopilla flash floods, August 215 CIGIDEN

12 CIGIDEN: National Research Center For Integrated Natural Hazards Management CIGIDEN is an interdisciplinary research effort which primary goal is to contribute to minimize the social consequences of natural disasters, by developing, integrating, and disseminating scientific, technological, and social knowledge, while simultaneously developing the scientific and technical capacities required to strengthen and position our country as a world research leader in natural disasters research. Natural Hazards RL1 RL2 Solid Earth Processes and Associated Natural Hazards Surface Water Processes and Associated Natural Hazards Solid Earth Hazards & Risk ABM, Evacuation RL6 RL3 Water Hazards & Risk Vulnerability and Risk Assessment of Physical and Social Systems Vulnerability Information, Communication, and Automation Technologies for Disaster Management RL4 Emergency Response and Disaster Management Risk Model Physical & Social Fragility Curves Multi-Risk Platform Mitigation RL5 Sustainable Risk Mitigation & Territorial Planning 12 4 Universities 6 Principal Researchers 25 Associate Researchers 23 Other Researchers CIGIDEN

13 2 13 RISK ANALYSIS, HAZUS AND A CASE STUDY.

14 HAZUS IMPLEMENTATION AT CIGIDEN. GOALS: Implementation of a computational engine for risk analysis, to assess the human, social, and economic impacts associated with different natural hazard scenarios, given the current and future exposure and interactions of the different existing systems and agents. EVACUATION PLANNING SHELTER LOCATION LOCATION OF CRITICAL FACILITIES EVALUATION OF SEISMIC PROTECTION MEASURES RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CITY PLANNING WATER & POWER SUPPLIES Evaluate preparedness level before a disaster occurs. Quick or precalculated damage assessment. Development of response plans. Efficient aid allocation. Identification of areas at highest risk. Simulation and priorization of mitigation measures. EVALUATION OF SEISMIC CODES 14 Planning of shortand long-term recovery actions. HEALTH AND SCHOOL NETWORK PERFORMANCE CONNECTIVITY HOUSING RECONSTRUCTION PLANNING ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLANNING CIGIDEN

15 HAZUS IMPLEMENTATION AT CIGIDEN. GOALS: 15 Integration of multi-disciplinary research conducted at CIGIDEN. CIGIDEN

16 HAZUS CASE STUDY: IQUIQUE Definition of study region: Iquique Alto Hospicio Connected coastal towns in I Region of Tarapacá Population Iquique: 184. Alto Hospicio: CIGIDEN

17 HAZUS CASE STUDY: IQUIQUE Definition of study region: Iquique Alto Hospicio Economic activity: strategic city in northern Chile. Active commercial activity (Tax free zone). 5th most important Chilean port. Distribution center for metallic and non-metallic mining activity. Tourist attraction. Source: EducarChile Geographical setting: located in seismic gap area in northern Chile, where megathrust earthquake/tsunami event is expected. MW 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 214 ruptured only ~2 of a the 6 km gap most of the area is still locked. Serves as validation scenario for risk and loss analysis. 17 CIGIDEN, L1. González et al. (in prep). CIGIDEN

18 3 19 IQUIQUE INVENTORY: DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS.

19 EXPOSURE: GENERAL BUILDING STOCK General building stock defined at block level. Aggregated building inventory calculated from databases obtained from the Internal Revenue Service (SII) & Ministry of Housing and Urbanism (MINVU). SII Database Iquique Cartography Address Destination Material Square Meters Construction year Property appraisal 1 or more records per property MINVU Database Address Material Square Meters Construction year 2 Value Social Housing Number of buildings per occupancy class, per block. Built square footage per occupancy class, per block. Individual location and structural information on tall buildings (>3 stories). Building Mapping Scheme.

20 EXPOSURE: GENERAL BUILDING STOCK General Occupancy Class Distribution Residential Commercial Industrial Religious Government Building Type Distribution 1.8% 67.21%.97% 7.58% 3.25%.37%.5%.69% 25.22% Wood Steel Braced Frame Steel Light Frame Concrete Shear Walls Concrete Moment Frame Concrete frame, UR masonry walls 21 Precast Concrete Reinforced Masonry Number of Buildings per Block Total:

21 EXPOSURE: DEMOGRAPHY AND POPULATION DYNAMICS. Census Data. Ce sus: de jure ethodology applied for first ti e i Chile. Census 212 Number of household members Sex Age 1 survey record per household Income Occupation Resident Population (Nigh Time) Total resident population per block (night time). Number of households per block. Gender distribution. Age distribution. Average income

22 EXPOSURE: DEMOGRAPHY AND POPULATION DYNAMICS Night residents Day residents Working 5PM Visitor Origin - Destination Survey (Ministry of Transportation) Nation- ide sur ey ai ed at studyi g tra sportatio patter s i Chile s Hotel ai cities. Work Education Other Exits Iquique and surroundings divided into 1 macrozones. Departures Arrivals 23 Trips within the same zone Centro Oriente Grade/College Internal trips Arrivals Work Education Other Work Education morning rush hour, afternoon rush hour ( 5 PM)

23 EXPOSURE: DEMOGRAPHY AND POPULATION DYNAMICS Working=Arrivals(work) + Internal (work) Visitor= Arrivals (other) Work Education Other Exits Centro Oriente Internal trips Arrivals Work Education Other Work Education Other Day residents=night residents Exits + Internal (other) Grade/College= total enrollment of schools in each tract 5PM= number of afternoon rush hour, distributed according to travel distance. Grade/College= total enrollment of K12 schools & universities in each morning rush hour, afternoon rush hour ( 5 PM) Grade/College= total capacity of hotels in each block. 24

24 EXPOSURE: ESSENTIAL FACILITIES AND LIFELINES ESSENTIAL FACILITIES Detailed structural and functional information on health, education, police and fire fighter facilities. Based on public information + detailed survey. 25 ROAD NETWORK Ministry of Public Works technical information on roads, bridges and tunnels.

25 EXPOSURE: UTILITIES Potable Water (Aguas del Altiplano) Source: SiSS!!!! 26 P Brittle (Asbesto cemento) Ductile (PVC, HDPE) P Waste Water (Aguas del Altiplano) Source: SiSS " " " " W Brittle (Asbesto cemento) Ductile (PVC, HDPE) W

26 4 27 SEISMIC AND TSUNAMI SCENARIOS FOR NORTHERN CHILE.

27 HAZARD SCENARIOS Hazard scenarios are the results of CIGIDEN L1, L2 and L3 research on seismic scenarios, earthquake propagation and tsunami modelling. Test Scenario: April 1st 214 Pisagua Earthquake (Mw 8.2). PGA maps generated on the basis of: Information on earthquake magnitude and hypocenter location (e.g. USGS, CSN). Attenuation laws for subduction earthquakes (e.g. Abrahamson et al. 215, Zhao et al. 26). Soil type and Vs3 maps by CIGIDEN. Tsunami inundation maps from numerical modelling. PGA (%g)

28 HAZARD SCENARIOS Predictive seismic scenarios: Estimation of seismic coupling based on trench parallel gravity anomaly and (TPGA) and geodesic interseismic coupling (ISC). Areas of maximum coupling are identified as asperities. 1 possible scenarios are defined considering simultaneous rupture of 1, 2 or 3 asperities. CIGIDEN, L1. González et al. (in prep). 29 Scenario Max. Slip (m) Mw

29 HAZARD SCENARIOS Predictive seismic scenarios: Worst-case scenario: full rupture from south of Perú to Mejillones, causing a Mw=8.95 earthquake. Consequential tsunami expected to cause inundation heights up to ~1 m in Iquique. Rapid inundation of port facilities and coastline. CIGIDEN, L2. CIGIDEN, L1. González et al. (in prep). 3

30 5 31 FRAGILITY AND VULNERABILITY.

31 Fragility of Structural & Non-structural Components. Ongoing research in Structural Engineering to define fragility curves and damage functions for Chilean building types & infrastructure. Characterization of Reinforced Concrete (RC) houses. (M. Haindl, MSc. Thesis) Characterization of RC Bridges. (A. Martínez, MSc. Thesis) 32

32 Fragility of Earth Structures. Ongoing research in to define fragility curves for earth structures and estimate landslide and liquefaction susceptibility. Fragility Curves for slopes 1 d= d= d= d= Idealized Sliding Mass Model P(D>d ky,ts ) cm 1 cm 1 cm 3 cm IM = Sa(1.5Ts) 2

33 Social Vulnerability. Characterization of social vulnerability to natural disasters based on demographic and socioeconomic data. Social Vulnerability Index to Natural Disasters for Iquique/Alto Hospicio and Santiago, based on census data (Vásquez & Kronmüller, 214) 34 (Armas & Gravis, 24)

34 6 35 CURRENT RESULTS & FUTURE WORK.

35 TEST SCENARIO: APRIL 1ST 214 EARTHQUAKE HAZUS analysis based on detailed inventory at block level, user-supplied seismic scenario and default damage function results in overestimates of building damage, compared to observations. Total Building Count Building Type C2H C2L C2M C3L MH PC1 PC2H RM1L RM1M S2L S3 S5H URMM W1 W2 Total Damage Cadastre 36 None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete Ongoing analysis to reconcile observed and simulated damage to buildings. Revision of attenuation laws and PGA maps. Which is the most correct? Revision of fragility curves and building type classification.

36 FUTURE WORK. 37 Complete inventory for Alto Hospicio. Analysis of damages and losses for predictive scenarios. Multi-hazard approach: earthquake + subsequent tsunami, landslides. Definition and generation of useful and efficient information tools for local stakeholders and disaster management organisms (e.g. ONEMI, Municipality). Integration of CIGIDEN research regarding: Fragility curves and damage functions. Network (health, roads, utilities) vulnerability and performance. Simulation of technical (e.g. seismic protection) and socio-politic (e.g. land use change, city planning recommendations) mitigation measures. Knowledge transfer to public entities responsible for disaster management, and society. Definition of futures implementations or scaling ant different regional levels.

37 IQUIQUE: A CASE STUDY FOR HAZUS IMPLEMENTATION IN CHILE. THANKS! 38