The Role of Science and Technology in Earthquake Hazard Characterization: A Chilean Experience
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1 The Role of Science and Technology in Earthquake Hazard Characterization: A Chilean Experience STI Contribution to Policy Making on Natural Disaster Resilience APEC Workshop, 1-2 August 2018 Santiago - Chile Sergio Barrientos Director Centro Sismológico Nacional Universidad de Chile
2 Some Significant Earthquakes in Chile Cisternas et al, (2005) Foundation of Santiago
3 Some Significant Earthquakes in Chile First large earthquake reported in Santiago - One fourth of the population was killed - Tax exemption for 6 years 1541.with so much rumble, force and movement so the buildings -that had been made for more than a hundred years- began to fall.
4 Some Significant Earthquakes in Chile February 11:30AM Concepcion M = 8 to 8.5 (Lomnitz,2004) The island of Quiriquina was uplifted 8 feet, Santa Maria Island 8 to 10 feet, Talcahuano 4 to 5 feet, Tubul 6 feet-- according to Darwin's own estimates, based on the level of dead shellfish as a reference. Subsidence was reported in the Maule estuary. Large tsunami Charles Darwin Maria Graham November 10:15 PM Valparaiso M= 8 to 8.5 (Lomnitz,2004) The alteration of the sea level at Valparaiso was about three feet, and some rocks were thus newly exposed, on which the fishermen collected the scallop-shell fish, which was not known to exist before the earthquake. At Quintero, the elevation was about four feet. No significant tsunami. Henry Warbuton published in Trans. Geol. Soc. London in 1823 Discussion with Greenough, Pres. of the Soc., (to rebuke Lyell s ideas) Creation of the Chilean Seismological Service
5 Some Significant Earthquakes in Chile Largest loss of life due to a disaster of natural origin in Chile : Patagonia: Thought to be free of earthquakes Building and Urban Planning General Ordinance
6 Some Significant Earthquakes in Chile Largest event in historical instrumental seismology: 1000-km-long rupture. Estimated toll: between 2000 and Failed tailing-dam; unknown number deaths probably more than 200 Intermediate depth, normal fault Precusor of Onemi created Largest event in central Chile since 1906
7 Some Significant Earthquakes in Chile M6.2 event produced rock-fall and landslides in Aysen: 10 people killed Massive coastal evacuation 1 million people: Onemi M8.8 event, largest in 50 years.
8 Seismicity of Chile High rates of seismic prouctivity - Number of events per unit time - Giant earthquakes Approx. one magnitude 8 earthquake every decade Different types of faults and seismogenic regions Significant number of events followed by tsunamis Shallow seismicity Active tectonics close to urban centers and infrastructure In Chile, since 1900, in terms of Disasters of Natural Origin: 99% fatalities due to earthquakes and tsunamis 98% economic loss due to earthquakes and tsunamis Tsunamis: Runups 4 m or more: 25 yr Runups 10 m or more: yr
9 Interplate events Probabilistic Approach, Cornell, (1968) Probability of occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude M(6,7,8,9) within 50 km in a random period of 30 yr. Medina et al.
10 Observation System Broad-band GPS Strong Motion
11 VA06 Catapilco
12 VA06 Catapilco Pedernales, Ecuador 16 Apr 2016
13 Data Center Early Bird Similar systems installed at ONEMI and SHOA SeisComP Antelope, Early Bird
14 Seismicity of Chile Feb 2010 Jun 2018 Instrumentally recorded Felt
15 Northern Chile Sipple et al. (2018)
16 Illapel 2015, Acceleration records 297 evtdb.csn.uchile.cl Leyton (2015)
17 Iquique 2014, Acceleration records Mexico City, 1985 Leyton, 2014
18 MSK Intensity in Santiago Strong motion instruments
19 Significant Earthquakes in Chile Astroza et al., 2010 Kiser and Ishi (2011)
20 Ground Displacements (GNSS) DIPLOMA DE POSTITULO EN SISMOLOGIA
21 Large earthquakes in Chile IPOC
22 Large earthquakes in Chile
23 Large earthquakes in Chile G-FAST, B. Crowell Earthquake location input PGD, Fault Mechanism, Centroid In addition Okada formulation SLAB 1.0 contact Surface Laplacian smoothing
24 Large earthquakes in Chile Iquique 2014 Maule 2010 Illapel 2015 Chiloe 2016 Valparaiso 2017 Fault-slip estimates by F. Del Campo
25 GNSS records M=6.9 M=7.6 M=8.2 M=8.3 M=8.8 J.C. Baez
26 Tsunami Warning System: GPS
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