City of Goleta Coastal Hazard Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment Public Workshop. Public Workshop Agenda
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1 City of Goleta Coastal Hazard Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment Public Workshop August 12, 2015 City Council Chambers Chandra Slaven, City of Goleta David Revell, Ph.D., Revell Coastal Public Workshop Agenda Introduction and Workshop Objectives Sea Level Rise Background Current Efforts Coastal Hazard Mapping Results Identifying Vulnerabilities in Goleta Initial Vulnerability Assessment Results Wrap up 1
2 Introduction and Work Objectives Introduction and Workshop Objectives Provide a better understanding of coastal hazards mapping and infrastructure impacts Discuss scales of analysis for vulnerability assessment Identify communities priorities 2
3 Sea Level Rise Background Climate Terms Defined Mitigation vs. Adaptation Hazards, Vulnerability, Adaptation Coastal erosion vs. Flooding vs. Inundation Coastal Erosion Coastal Flooding Inundation 3
4 SLR and Coastal Flooding Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Global Causes of SLR Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) 4
5 Regional Causes of SLR Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Coastal Flooding and Storm Events San Diego, 2050 Is Calling. How Will We Answer? (2014) The San Diego Foundation; Climate Education Partners. 5
6 Coastal Flooding and Storm Events San Diego, 2050 Is Calling. How Will We Answer? (2014) The San Diego Foundation; Climate Education Partners. Coastal Flooding and Storm Events San Diego, 2050 Is Calling. How Will We Answer? (2014) The San Diego Foundation; Climate Education Partners. 6
7 Coastal Flooding and Storm Events San Diego, 2050 Is Calling. How Will We Answer? (2014) The San Diego Foundation; Climate Education Partners. Sea Level Rise Impacts Increase frequency and depth of coastal flooding & inundation Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers Accelerated beach erosion rates Beach loss Greater frequency of cliff failures Beach/shore safety compromised Costly damages Photo: A. Bermond 7
8 140 Recurrence Intervals of Extreme Water Levels Cost/ year Sea Level Relative to MSL in 2000, in Yr. 10 Yr. 1 Yr. 2 MTh 1 MTh $500 $2,500 $25,000 $150,000 $300, Current Efforts State Guidance, Regional Collaboration, and Local Results 8
9 Current Efforts State SLR Policy Guidance adopted TODAY by the CA Coastal Commission Regional Collaboration Southern Santa Barbara County Resiliency Project Goleta s CCC LCP Grant Coastal Hazard Mapping Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation Planning Fiscal Impact Analysis Santa Barbara County Coastal Resiliency Project Phase 1 David Revell, PhD. Bob Battalio, P.E. James Jackson, E.I.T 9
10 180 South Coast Scenarios Santa Barbara South Coast No land motion 160 Planning Horizons: 2010, 2030, 2060, 2100 Sea Level Rise: High: 60.2 inches by 2100 Medium: 30.7 inches by 2100 Low: 10.6 inches by 2100 Wave Climate Scenarios: Wave buoy record appended USGS COSMOS 3.0 outputs Sea Level Rise in cm ESA 2015 Vertical Land Motion: Removed South of Cape Mendocino subsidence rates from NRC 2012 report Model Inputs Physical Forces Offshore wave/ climate scenarios Transformed nearshore waves Tides Total Water Levels Backshore Characterization Geology Geomorphology (slopes, heights) Backshore type (cliff, dune, inlet, armored) Historic erosion rates (short term, long term) Coastal Armoring Topography Scale of Analysis 500m 10
11 Outputs 1. Erosion Hazards: Future erosion increases hydraulic connection and risk of flooding 2. Coastal Flooding: Inundation during extreme coastal events (integrated with erosion) 1. Wave Velocity: Zone of wave momentum (similar to FEMA V Zone) 4. Rising Tides: Inundation during monthly extreme tides The Nature Conservancy's Coastal Resilience Website Mapping Tool: 9 Uplift Regions in Santa Barbara 11
12 Backshore Characterization Evaluating Uncertainty: Spatial Aggregation 12
13 Goleta s LCP Hazard Zone Overlay will provide locations of potential hazards Saves time for property owners as coastal hazards are currently determined on a case by base basis through Coastal Development Permit This will give the City initial decision making authority for coastal permit issues Goleta s LCP LCP = LUP + IP Land Use Plan Policies Safety Element: Update to policies on SLR, Drought, Wildfire Implementation Plan Hazards Overlay Chapter Transfer of development rights Rolling easements/setbacks Model Landscape Ordinance 13
14 What is a Vulnerability Assessment? Varying levels (determine by data availability and expert input) In or out; Sector approach; Engineering level components Utilizes the hazard identification to identify what is at risk Evaluates the impacts of each type of hazard (e.g. erosion, flooding, inundation) Assesses the impacts to each sector over time (e.g. infrastructure, wastewater, natural resources) Identifies thresholds in either time or rise in sea level Supports adaptation planning, comprehensive strategies, decision making Coastal Hazard Mapping Results 14
15 Northeast Residential Area Bacara Resort Northwest Residential Area Central Resource Area Los Carneros Lake Northeast Community Center Old Town Haskell's Beach EOF Sandpiper Golf Course Coastal Resource Area Ellwood Beach Southwest Residential Area Central Area Goleta Slough Rancho Goleta Lake Goleta Beach Goleta Pier Devereux Slough Sands Beach Coal Oil Pt Campus Lagoon Goleta Pt Figure 9: Combined Coastal Hazards Overview Legend Coastal Zone City Sub-Areas 2010 Combined Coastal Hazards Goleta City Boundary 2030 Combined Coastal Hazards (10.2") 2060 Combined Coastal Hazards (27.2") Combined Coastal Hazards (60.2") Miles DRAFT Hazard Modeling by ESA Northwest Residential Area Central Resource Area Coastal Resource Area Southwest Residential Area Central Area 15
16 Old Town Identifying Vulnerabilities in Goleta 16
17 GIS Data Collection: Infrastructure Chemical Industries Wastewater & Water Infrastructure Contaminated Sites Culverts, Discharges, Tide gates Emergency Services Hazard Storage Sites Health Centers/Schools Historic Sites Roads/Highways/Bridges Tax Parcels Traffic Traffics So Cal Edison Utility Wastewater Conveyance Pipes and Pump Stations Water Lift Stations Water Supply Bus Lines/Bus Stops/Vehicle Trips Ground Water Basins Septic Tanks Cell Sites GIS Data Collection: Coastal Resources Beach and Shoreline Beaches Coastal Access Critical Habitat for Western Snowy Plover Dunes Habitats Industry Monarch Butterfly and/or Raptor Roosting Habitat New Grassland Native Upland Woodlands Open Space Open Water Parks Riparian/Marsh/Vernal Pool Sage Scrub/Dune/Bluff Scrub Special Status Species Vegetated Open Creek Channel 17
18 GIS Data Collection: Land Use, Coastal Armoring, and Social Vulnerability Land Use Residential/Commercial/Indu strial Mobile Home Park Resort/Visitor Serving Industrial/ Mixed use Agriculture FEMA Flood Fluvial Extents Resource Management Shopping Center Transportation Corridor Coastal Armoring Sea Wall and Riprap Sea Wall Footing Structural Sea Wall Beach Cobbles (Natural Condition) Revetments Riprap Wood Timbers Social Vulnerability Demographics Overlays Vulnerable Populations Renter vs. Owner Occupied Age of House Social Vulnerability Index Initial Vulnerability Results 18
19 Nonresidential vs. Residential 2010 Number of Parcels (Acreages) Erosion = 9 (3.5) Residential = 0 Non residential = 9 Coastal Flooding = 58 Residential = 4 (0.38) Non residential = 54 (90) Nonresidential vs. Residential 2030 Number of Parcels (Acreages) Erosion = 9 (3.5) Residential = 0 Non residential = 9 (3.8) Coastal Flooding = 74 Residential = 4 (0.39) Non residential = 70 (108) 19
20 Nonresidential vs. Residential 2060 Number of Parcels (Acreages) Erosion = 9 (13.8) Residential = 0 Non residential = 9 (13.8) Coastal Flooding = 107 Residential = 5 (0.39) Non residential = 102 (142) Nonresidential vs. Residential 2100 Number of Parcels (Acreages) Erosion = 9 (18.7) Residential = 0 Non residential = 9 (18.7) Coastal Flooding = 301 Residential = 75 (2.5) Non residential = 226 (278) 20
21 Parcels and Buildings # of Buildings Coastal Process Existing Hazard conditions Coastal erosion Coastal flooding Wastewater 2010 Length of Pipe (ft) (manholes) Coastal Flooding Pipe = 1535 feet Manholes = 6 21
22 Length of Pipe (ft) (manholes) Wastewater 2100 Coastal Flooding Pipe = 22,945 feet (4.3 miles) Manholes = 82 Hazardous Materials and Storage Hazardous Material Storage Underground Storage tanks Existing = = = =84 22
23 Public Access Haskell s Beach Ellwood Mesa Open Space and Trails Existing California Coastal Trail Existing Juan Bautista de Anza Trail Beach Access Points Proposed Continuance of Trails along Sandpiper Property Trails and Access 2010 Length of trails (ft.) Total = 2444 Erosion = 0 Coastal Flooding =
24 Trails and Access 2100 Length of trails (ft.) Total = 25,077 Erosion = 11,443 Coastal Flooding = 13,634 Length of roads (ft.) Coastal Flooding = 1159 feet Roads
25 Roads 2100 Length of roads (ft.) Coastal Flooding = 19,008 (9.28 miles) Coastal Resources Tecolote Creek and Estuary Bell Canyon Creek and Estuary Monarch Butterfly Habitat Devereux Creek San Jose Creek 25
26 Environmentally Sensitive Habitat Areas Environmentally Sensitive Habitat Area Existing Conditions Coastal Erosion Beach and Shoreline Monarch butterfly and/or Raptor Roosting Habitat Native grassland Riparian/Marsh/Vernal Scrub Beach and Shoreline Coastal Flooding Monarch butterfly and/or Raptor Roosting Habitat Native grassland Open Water Riparian/Marsh/Vernal Scrub Unvegetated Open Creek Channel Initial Vulnerability Findings City most vulnerable to Coastal Flooding impacts (potentially fluvial/coastal confluence) Substantial escalation of impacts between 2060 and 2100 Coastal erosion has minimal impact to the City except for Recreation and Trails Sandpiper by 2030 Bacara by 2060 Photo: T. Feyram 26
27 Initial Adaptation Strategies Protectively Planning through Adaptation Adaptation Strategies Strategies Risk Avoid hazards Move development away from hazards Move hazards away from development Provide barriers between hazards and development Flood proof More Doom and Gloom Aka disasters and $ Community Acceptance of Risk Time or Sea Level Elevation 27
28 Wrap Up What has been Accomplished: Hazard Mapping in conjunction w/county Initial Vulnerability Assessment Next Steps: Add Input from Internal City Working Group Meetings Finalize Vulnerability Assessment Finalize Fiscal Impact Analysis City Council Status Briefing on Final Report and Presentation to City Council on Questions and Answers Recommendations Information, Reports, and Presentations will be posted on City s Website: and otherprojects/local coastal programproject Staff Contact: Chandra Slaven, Senior Planner cslaven@cityofgoleta.org 28
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