Next Generation Flood Forecasting and Warning System Evaluation and Work Plan Development

Transcription

1 Next Generation Flood Forecasting and Warning System Evaluation and Work Plan Development March 8, 2018 Nick Lorrain, CET Manager, Capital Projects Toronto and Region Conservation Authority Sam Bellamy, P.Eng Principal Water Resources Engineer Matrix Solutions Inc.

2 Presentation Overview 1) Background 2) TRCA s Future DSS Requirements 3) Study Process 4) Decision Support System Evaluation 5) Conclusions 6) Next Steps

3 Background Current version of the Daily Planning Cycle

4 Background Current version of the Daily Planning Cycle Provides decision making support based on precipitation forecasts counted in 24 hour increments Consists of basic excel hydrology calculations for tracking soil moisture and estimating peak flow at discrete sites Uses a single soil-moisture and recorded rainfall value to be representative for the entire jurisdiction Currently forecasts flows for 14 sites

5 Background Limitations of the current version of the Daily Planning Cycle Advancements in hydrology and hydraulic modelling capabilities, the underlying equations for calculating flood thresholds in the DPC are outdated Spatial distribution of weather data and the resulting hydrologic impacts at a sub watershed scale is non-existent The DPC uses a single soil moisture and recorded rainfall value to be representative for the entire jurisdiction The DPC does not allow for the intake of real-time watershed information or radar Current DPC is completely applicable for what it was intended to do, at the time it was made!

6 TRCA s Future DSS Requirements Forecast horizon 3 days-24 hours 24 to 12 hours and 12-3 hours out 3 hours out - nowcasting Available data Environment Canada (EC) text forecasts (In addition to those shown to the left) Real-time Buffalo Radar (via Intellicast) sources (for GEM weather model (Canada) HRDPS (Local Area Model, 2.5km gridded output, NEXRAD forecast radar precipitation and HRDPS weather model (Canada) Canada) HRRR hourly model NAM model (US) HRRR gridded output (US, High Resolution Rapid Real-time King City Radar weather) QPF model (US) Refresh) Real-time TRCA Rain and stream gauges (ours) NOAA Snow cover and other satellite based snowwater EC forecaster comments CoCoRAHs rain gauges equivalent products Weather Network hourly precipitation prediction Lightning maps (Solma, CLDM) EC 3-day thunderstorm outlook and map supposedly a forecaster s interpretation of multiple EC Watches and warnings Weather network Thunderstorm outlook models SREF model (US) Forecast gridded radar (NEXRAD) Tracked Snow-Water Equivalent (tracked via spreadsheet between biweekly readings) Forecast gridded radar (EC) (King City Radar) may or may not be available Forecast radar Weather Network may or may not be gridded, may or may not be publicly available Other satellite derived products Functionality we need Intake and consideration of multiple weather and Complementary to what is already shown to the left, Riverine flash flood prediction in the form of flow rate Wish List precipitation forecast sources (NAM, GEM, etc.) Riverine flash flood prediction in the form of flow rate predictions at key locations (ideally, someday inundation Quick check of current and expected watershed predictions at key locations (ideally, someday areas, but that is not anticipated for the current DSS) conditions inundation areas, but that is not anticipated for the Consideration of the spatial distribution of expected Heads up for deciding if a) need to issue a current DSS) precipitation message, b) enhanced monitoring, or c) close out Consideration of the spatial distribution of expected Quick run-time for the day precipitation Easy to use interface (no DOS command prompt, clear Decision and record keeping tool (place for Quick run-time ability to understand the underlying processes) forecaster comments) Easy to use interface (no DOS command prompt, clear Good level of service for FVA Clusters Support for post-event dam operations (are we ability to understand the underlying processes) Ability to test dam operation scenarios clear to draw-down the dam?) Well-understood, can test multiple scenarios at user Intake of real-time gauging data for display and Tracking of antecedent conditions, if hydrologic command calculation purposes, ideally intake of real-time gauging models/equations require it, in a way that accounts Ability to intake hourly/15 min forecasts data for data correction/assimilation purposes for spatial distribution (ie: by watershed, and by Remote access Comparison of predicted and actual rainfall and flow rates headwater versus main branch areas) Graphical representation of weather forecast overlays, at key locations, ideally data correction or assimilation to Ability to consider runoff or peak flow thresholds for and a map-based GUI component increase accuracy of predictions each watershed, since thresholds vary. Sharable visuals (evac areas, etc this is a future niceto-have, Ability to rank data sources and use the best one for the Consider spatial and temporal distribution of forecast data, combined with soil moisture or SWE not anticipated as part of this DSS build) time (ie: radar data supersedes model data, gauged data supersedes radar data, etc.) information (depending on equations) to determine flow rate predictions at key locations, including dam sites. Sharable visuals (evac areas, etc this is a future niceto-have, not anticipated as part of this DSS build) Data outputs and products needed Aggregated precipitation forecasts in 6 hour blocks, and predicted peak flow rates Tracking or assessment of antecedent conditions - snow and/or soil moisture Parameters needed to estimate snowpack depletion (temperature, air, etc. depends on snowmelt method used) In addition to those to the left, Precipitation forecasts in hourly increments, and predicted peak flow rates/hydrographs. Comparison against flow thresholds Comparison against dam operations rules 15-min precip- accurate forecasts/data (can be from gauges) Good interpretation of radar to rainfall or composite gridded precipitation product that can be read by models. Projected hydrographs to compare against thresholds Accurate thresholds, tied to flow rates Dam ops rules

7 TRCA s Future DSS Requirements Decision Support System Wish List: Ability to use multiple weather forecasts and radar for long, short, and now casting Functionality Decision and record keeping tool Tracking of antecedent conditions Consider spatial and temporal distribution of forecast data Quick run-time Easy to use interface Intake of real-time gauging data for display and calculation purposes Comparison of predicted and actual rainfall and flow rates at key locations Ability to rank data sources and use the best available forecast Data outputs and products

8 TRCA s Future DSS Requirements

9 TRCA s Future DSS Requirements

10 Study Process DSS Evaluation Identify DSS Software Complete evaluation matrix and scoring Identify preferred platform DSS Standards Development Gauging network, density and location Hydrology modelling methodology DSS Work Plan Development Prioritise watersheds Complete cost estimate Document the work plan Summary Report

11 What is a DSS? Realtime Network -Climate -Flows -Water Levels Forecast Data - Met forecasts - Radar products DSS - User Interface - Imports, consolidates, validates, and manipulates forecast/climate data - Preps Data Input files for Forecast Model - Manages and displays Forecast Model output - Archiving - Job Control Flood Messaging /Warning Forecast Model Flows Real-time inundation Reservoir Operations

12 DSS Evaluation Approach Preliminary Review Detailed Review and Interviews Evaluation and Scoring Screening for minimum requirements 7 DSSs identified Interviews and Live Demo s 5 DSSs underwent detailed review Standardized scoring matrix DSS Recommendation

13 Key Considerations Selected DSS must be a long-term product from a stable supplier Must already be in regular use by water management agencies Preferably in Canada Ability to integrate multiple climate forecast products Leverage past investment Existing flood forecast system Hydrologic models

14 Preliminary Review Initial review of 7 potential DSS platforms Initial assessment focused on the following criteria: Company Software and Support: DSS product is currently in use and well supported by the company with a long term vision. Data Acquisition and Processing: DSS has the ability to gather, validate and process multiple data sources including TRCA s real-time data collection system, radar sources, and commonly used climate forecasts Model Integration and Analysis: DSS can support multiple hydrology/hydraulic modelling platforms. Based on the above criteria, DSS platforms were narrowed down to 5 for secondary evaluation

15 DSSs included in Detailed Review Flood Forecasting & Warning DSS Program CHI PCSWMM Real time USACE HEC RTS DHI Mike Operations Deltares Delft FEWs Innovyze FloodWorks/ Now ICMLive Operational Flood Forecasting Projects Sao Paulo, Brazil Toronto, Ontario (Don River Watershed, Pilot Project) Cooksville Creek Watershed, Toronto, Canada San Diego River Watershed, USA Satluj and Beas Basin, Tibet Mill Creek, Tennessee National Institute of Hydrology, India Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand Slovenian Environmental Agency (ARSO) ARPA Piedmont, Italy Tennessee Valley Authority, USA Saint John River Basin, New Brunswick, Canada National Weather Service (NOAA) >30watersheds Thames River, United Kingdom San Antonio River, USA Cork County, Ireland Bangkok Thailand

16 Detailed Review - Survey Supplied vendors with a 30 question survey Vendor and Experience Company Context Product Implementation Internal and External Product Support Data Acquisition and Processing Real-time Dataset Support Radar Integration Linkages to Climate Forecasts Model Integration & Analysis Scenario Management Model Integration/Preferred Model Platform Visualization, Data Management and Hardware Requirements Data Visualization/Storage/Archiving Hardware Requirements Licensing Costs

17 Detailed Review Interviews & Demos Following survey, interviews were held Live demonstration Technical Q&A Themes Limited implementation of flood forecasting and DSS platforms within Canada. Platforms has largely been implemented in Europe, Asia, and USA Development of Flood Forecasting DSS s have largely been extensions of existing model platforms Delft-FEWs is the only platform evaluated that commonly interfaces with differing modelling platforms. Technical capabilities are generally similar between DSS s. Differences include Level of local support How broadly the DSS has been applied Ease at which multiple climate forecasts can be considered and displayed Differing levels of user freedom that can be implemented Cost

18 Evaluation Summary Vendor & Experience Data Acquisition and Processing Model Integration and Analysis Visualization, Data Management and Hardware Requirements Software Cost PCSWMM Real time - Well established commercial vendor - Forecast product recently marketed - Local support - Developed to support PCSWMM -3 rd party model adaptors possible -4K + model license HEC RTS MIKE Operations Delft FEWs - Well established institutional vendor - Long product history - Website states no support to non USACE members..but - Well established commercial vendor - Long product history - Local support - Well established institutional vendor - Long product history - North American support - Similar linkages to common climate model forecasts and radar sources - Scripting ability to link to alternative forecast sources - Developed to support HEC-HMS -3 rd party model adaptors possible - Developed to support MIKE-11/SHE - Developing adaptors for WATFLOOD, HEC- HMS/RAS - 80 adaptors for differing hydrologic / hydraulic models - Similar abilities related to data management/vis ualization. - Common scripting abilities allow customization - Hardware requirements are minimal -No licensing costs - 20K + model license -No licensing costs FloodWorks (ICMLive) - Well established commercial vendor - Recent entrant to FF - Canadian support - Developed to support InfoWorks ICM -3 rd party model adaptors possible - 40K + model license

19 Conclusions Evaluation considered seven DSS s, short-listed to five Focused on literature review, vendor questionnaire, interview, live demonstration and technical Q&A session Delft-FEWs was identified as the recommended DSS Long history of product development and support (> 15 years) Institutional support Active user community/annual conference Has been operationalized at a variety of scales ~50 worldwide, ~ 20 in North America Ranging from continental (NOAA National Weather Service, Australian Bureau of Meteorology,) to regional (St. John River Basin NB and Netherlands) Demonstrated ability to integrate with many different modelling platforms Highly modular Riverine flooding/inundation, water quality, groundwater, coastal flooding, real-time control and optimization

20 Next Steps Complete the standards development Complete the work plan include cost assessment Prepare NDMP Intake 5 ask for initial system build

21 Thank You