Central Asia Regional Flash Flood Guidance System 4-6 October Hydrologic Research Center A Nonprofit, Public-Benefit Corporation

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1 Central Asia Regional Flash Flood Guidance System 4-6 October 2016 Hydrologic Research Center A Nonprofit, Public-Benefit Corporation

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3 FFGS Snow Components Snow Accumulation and Ablation Model Model Input (MAT and MAP) Snow Cover (IMS) Model Evaluation

4 Satellite Rainfall GHE -CMORPH Gauge Rainfall Radar Rainfall (Real Time 1-Hourly) Rainfall Data Quality Control & Merging (Real Time/ 6-Hourly) MAP & MAT Snow Model Temperature Estimate Gauge/GFS Climatological Reference ET Forecaster Review and Warning Dissemination Flash Flood Guidance Model Flash Flood Guidance Soil Model Threshold Runoff Satellite (IMS) Snow Cover Area Spatial Data Terrain, LULC, Soils Streams

5 Gauge GFS Climate Rain MAP Surface Temperature MAT FFT Obs. Snow depth & SWE Snow Model Frozen Ground SACSMA FFG Observed & Forecast MAP For SCA > 0.4 IN= Rain *(1-SCA) For SCA < 0.4 SWE Melt RAIN Satellite Snow Cover

6 Anderson, Eric A., 1973: "National Weather Service River Forecast System -- Snow Accumulation and Ablation Model", NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS HYDRO-17, US Dept. of Commerce, Silver Spring, MD, 217p. Anderson, Eric, A., 1976: "A Point Energy and Mass Balance Model of a Snow Cover", NOAA Technical Report 19, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Silver Spring, MD, 1p. snow17.pdf

7 Snow Accumulation and Ablation Model (SNOW-17) of the U.S. NWS (Anderson, 1973; Anderson, 2005) Operational model at the National Weather Service, U.S.A A conceptual areal lumped energy and mass balance model Air Temperature used as an index for pack energy and division of precipitation as rain or snow Considers: melt during no rain; melt during rain; no melt Model states track: snow water equivalent (SWE), heat deficit, liquid content, and snow cover area

8 SNOW-17 MODEL: Rain on Bare Ground Rain Plus Melt Precipitation and Air Temperature Rain or Snow Accumulated Snow Cover Energy Exchange at Snow-Air Interface Snow Cover Heat Deficit Ground Melt Snow Cover Outflow Snow-17: Conceptual energy and mass balance Require MAP and MAT data Single vertical layer Three modules: Melt during rain Melt during no rain Heat accounting during no melt Describe the snow cover extent using the Snow Depletion Curve Deficit = 0 Areal Extent of the Snow Cover Liquid Water Storage Transmission of Excess Water

9 States SWE - Snow water equivalent Liquid content PLWHC parameter (vertical transmission through the pack) Heat Deficit - Energy required to bring the snowpack to isothermal 0º C ATI Antecedent Temperature Index Snow Pack Depth (Optional) SCA - Snow Cover Area Rain plus Melt Output

10 Surface Air Temperature Index for the pack energy balance and determine the form of precipitation (rain or snow) Precipitation determine amount of snowfall and amount of rain-on-snow (PXTEMP) SCF - Multiplying factor that adjusts precipitation data for gage catch deficiencies during periods of snowfall Other Data (when available) Snowfall Snow course and/or snow sensors (water-equivalent) Areal extent of snow cover (satellite)

11 ( Anderson 2006) PXTEMP threshold temperature parameter (2 C)

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14 LAND COVER Coniferous forest /persistent cloud cover Mixed forest Coniferous plus open and/or deciduous MF MAX MF MIN (mm C 6hr -1 ) (mm C 6hr -1 ) Predominantly Deciduous Open Areas flat terrain Mountainous terrain Table 2. Recommendation for MF MAX and MF MIN values (Anderson 2002) 14

15 AVHRR Global Land Cover Product GLCF 1 km resolution GTOPO DEM (~km)

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17 Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS), made available through National Snow and Ice Data Center, NOAA. Northern Hemisphere daily snow cover based on summary of multiple satellites at 4km x 4km resolution. Product defines: Snow covered land, sea ice, sea land (no snow) Since December 2014 a 1 km SCA and snow depth (4-km) products are available (to be evaluated for FFGS) Generally available within 1 day (often within several hours) following date of observation Archive is available for 2006-current Helfrich et al., 2007 Hydrological Processes

18 43 42 Turkey: Location of Snow stations All Stations Selected Stations 41 Latitude o N Longitude o W

19 GOOD AGGREMMENT BETWEEN SNOW AT THE STATION AND THE CLOSEST GRID CELL Comparison between snow stations to the 4km snow cover from the satellite Data from 289 stations 139 stations reported one daily event or more. The map shows the station locations that have frequent reports 7224 Daily total reports for these period As the SWE increase as the t-hold for cover by the satellite the percent agreement and disagreement between the station and the satellite increases and decreases respectively Percent YES-station ; YES-Satellite YES-station ; NO-Satellite Number of snow stations Exceedance of daily reports of snow for Threshold of SWE (mm) at the Stations

20 Incorporating Glacier mapping information in the FFGS GLIMS: Global Land Ice Measurements from Space ( ) National Snow and Ice Data Center Contribution from more than 60 institutions Based on data from ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and reflection Radiometer) and the Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) as well as historical information derived from maps and aerial photographs. Map was updated in December 2014 Raup, B.H.; A. Racoviteanu; S.J.S. Khalsa; C. Helm; R. Armstrong; Y. Arnaud (2007). "The GLIMS Geospatial Glacier Database: a New Tool for Studying Glacier Change". Global and Planetary Change 56: (doi: /j.gloplacha )

21 Basin fractional cover

22 Frozen ground can have a significant effect on streamflow The modeling of frozen ground using a Frost Index (FI) Operational data source that can be used operationally in the FFGS (CFSv2) Evaluation of Regional Frost Index

23 NWSRFS Frost Index model (Anderson & Neuman, 1984) The importance of simulating frozen ground

24 Calculating an empirical Frost Index [FI] as a function of: Air Surface Temperature [Ta] Snow depth [SD] Snow cover area [SCA] Ta Frost Index

25 A multiplier that reduces percolation and interflow withdrawal rates as a function of soil moisture NO REDUCTION MAX. REDUCTION WET DRY

26 Reduction Factor

27 Land cover map: Klein et al., 2012

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29 Thaw Onset - Frost Index [FI] Density Function(Fraction) Days from Jan NCDC 2013 NCDC 2014 CFS 2013 CFS Latitude ( o N) Difference of Thaw Onset [NCDC-CFS] (days) Difference of Thaw Onset [NCDC-CFS] (days) Elevation (m)

30 Thaw Onset Skin 2012 Thaw Onset Skin 2013 Thaw Onset Skin Thaw Onset 0-0.1m 2012 Thaw Onset 0-0.1m 2013 Thaw Onset 0-0.1m Latitude Thaw Onset m Latitude Thaw Onset m Latitude Thaw Onset m Thaw Onset 0.4-1m 2012 Thaw Onset 0.4-1m 2013 Thaw Onset 0.4-1m Thaw Onset 1-2m 2012 Thaw Onset 1-2m 2013 Thaw Onset 1-2m Longitude Feb Mar Apr May Longitude Longitude

31 Freezing Onset Skin 2012 Freezing Onset Skin 2013 Freezing Onset Skin Freezing Onset 0-0.1m 2012 Freezing Onset 0-0.1m 2013 Freezing Onset 0-0.1m Latitude Freezing Onset m Latitude Freezing Onset m Latitude Freezing Onset m Freezing Onset 0.4-1m 2012 Freezing Onset 0.4-1m 2013 Freezing Onset 0.4-1m Freezing Onset 1-2m 2012 Freezing Onset 1-2m 2013 Freezing Onset 1-2m Longitude Sept Oct Nov Dec Longitude Longitude

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