Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019

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1 Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency

2 Basin Conditions Summer rainfall in 2018 over the Saskatchewan portion of the Souris River Basin was near average (Figure 1). As shown in Figure 2, precipitation in the 60 days prior to freeze-up was slightly above average; therefore, prior to freeze-up, cropland topsoil moisture was generally considered to be near average across the basin. As shown in Figures 3 and 4, point snowfall data collected within the basin indicates cumulative winter precipitation to date ranges from near average (85-115%) in the far south eastern portion, to below average (60-85%) across the remainder of the basin. Snow Surveys Airborne gamma snow surveys were completed by the US National Weather Service (NWS) on January 12-13, This survey indicate snow water equivalent (SWE) values vary from approximately 40 mm (1.6 in.) in the south western portion of the Souris Basin, to 66 mm (2.6 inches) in northern and eastern portions of the basin (Figure 5). Visual observations indicate more snowpack exists across the basin then was present at the beginning of the month. Water Security Agency (WSA) also conducted manual snow surveys in late February These surveys were completed at 18 locations across the basin, and were visually estimated to be representative of the vicinity. These manual survey results, shown in Figure 7, indicate that there is roughly 35 mm of snowpack in the southwest, increasing to above 70 mm in the northeast. This correlates reasonably well with the SWE values estimated via passive-microwave satellite (Figure 6) Spring Runoff Forecast As per the terms of the 1989 Canada-United States Agreement on Water Supply and Flood Control in the Souris River Basin, on February 1 and thereafter on the 15 th and last day of the month until runoff occurs, the WSA, in coordination with the NWS, will prepare forecasts of the 30-day and 90-day runoff volumes for the basin. The full agreement is available here: 1989 Agreement Inflow estimates, based on conditions as of March 1, 2019, are outlined in Table 1. These volumes are the average of the WSA and NWS forecasts. As shown in the table, runoff yields are expected to be below median at all forecast points. In order to illustrate the uncertainty in these forecasted volumes, estimates of the volumes associated with a 10% and 90% probability of exceedance for the 30-day volumes are also included in Table 1. The forecasted 50 th percentile 30-day local runoff volume below the Canadian Reservoirs is well below the 37,500 dam 3 required to initiate flood operations under the terms of the 1989 Agreement. The forecasted unregulated 90-day volume at Sherwood is also well below the 216,000 dam 3 threshold that also can initiate flood operations under the 1989 Agreement. With neither conditions being met, operations are proceeding based on non-flood operating rules, and no further reservoir drawdowns will be initiated at this time. 1

3 Table 1: March 1, 2019 Runoff Forecast for the Souris River Basin Long Creek Near Noonan Inflow into Rafferty Reservoir Diversion to Rafferty Reservoir Inflow into Grant Devine Lake 90% Confidence 30-Day Runoff Volume (dam 3 x 10 3 ) Best Estimate 10% Confidence 90-Day Runoff Volume (dam 3 x 10 3 ) 90% Best Confidence Estimate Peak Flow (m 3 /s) Event Return Period (years) <1: <1: <1: <1:2 Local Runoff <1:2 Sherwood Crossing Projected Sherwood Crossing Natural Sherwood Crossing Unregulated <1: <1: <1:2 Notes for the Forecast During flood events, the 90-Percent 90-Day inflow forecast to each of the reservoirs is used in Plates A-1, A-2, A-3 of the 1989 Agreement to determine target drawdown levels at Boundary, Rafferty, and Grant Devine Lakes respectively (Long Creek near Noonan, Inflow into Rafferty Reservoir, and Inflow into Grant Devine Lake in the above table). Inflows into Rafferty Reservoir do not include diversion from Boundary Reservoir. Local Runoff is the volume of runoff that is expected at the Sherwood Crossing from the basin below the Canadian reservoirs (Boundary, Rafferty, and Grant Devine). If this 30-day Local Runoff volume exceeds 37,000 dam 3, Flood Operations, as per page A-26 of the 1989 Agreement, are initiated. Sherwood Crossing Projected is equal to the expected runoff less planned reservoir storage at the Canadian Reservoirs to the end of the forecast period. This is the volume (and associated peak flow) that is expected to occur at the Sherwood Crossing based on local runoff and planned releases from the Canadian Reservoirs. Sherwood Crossing Natural is equal to the expected runoff, less the volumes from the Yellow Grass and Tatagwa Marshes and minor project diversions. This is an estimate of the natural flow volume at the Sherwood Crossing. Sherwood Crossing Unregulated is equal to the expected runoff (including runoff from the Yellow Grass and Tatagwa Marshes). If this best estimate 30-day Sherwood Crossing Unregulated volume exceeds 216,110 dam 3, the Flood Operations, as per page A-26 of the 1989 Agreement, are initiated. The best estimate 30-day volume is used in Plates A-5 and A-6 to determine target flows at Sherwood and Minot. 2

4 Proposed Reservoir Operations for the Spring of 2019 Please note that these are preliminary operating plans, based on forecasted inflows. Actually operating decisions will be made based on information available at the time. Boundary Reservoir On March 1, 2019, Boundary Reservoir was at an elevation of m, approximately 12,500 dam 3 or 2.22 m below the full supply level of m. Due to low projected runoff, flood operations are not in effect and no pre-runoff drawdown is required. With average conditions going forward to spring melt, Boundary Reservoir is projected to fill in The preliminary operating plan for Boundary Reservoir is to store all inflows and divert any additional surplus runoff into Rafferty Reservoir. In the event that Rafferty Reservoir reaches its full supply level, releases will be made from Boundary Reservoir into Long Creek rather than diverting over to Rafferty Reservoir for release directly into the Souris River. Rafferty Reservoir On March 1, 2019, Rafferty Reservoir was at an elevation of m. This is 28 cm below the Normal Drawdown Level of m specified in the Agreement for February 1, and 60,000 dam 3 or 1.28 m below its full supply level of m. Due to low projected runoff, flood operations are not in effect and no pre-runoff drawdown is required. With average conditions going forward to spring melt, Rafferty Reservoir is not projected to reach its full supply level in The present operating plan for Rafferty Reservoir is to store all inflow in an attempt to raise the Reservoir to its full supply level. In the event that Rafferty Reservoir fills, any diversions from Boundary Reservoir will cease and releases will be made at a controlled rate, respecting downstream constraints, including the target flow at the Sherwood Crossing. If surcharged, the reservoir will be returned to full supply (550.5 m) no later than June 1. Grant Devine Lake On March 1, 2019, Grant Devine Lake was at an elevation of m. This is 1 cm above the Normal Drawdown Level of m specified in the Agreement for February 1, due to snow loading after the target drawdown was achieved, and 11,100 dam 3 or 0.99 m below its full supply level (562.0 m). Due to low projected runoff, flood operations are not in effect and no pre-runoff drawdown is required. With average conditions going forward to spring melt, Grant Devine Lake is not projected to reach its full supply in The preliminary operating plan for Grant Devine Lake is to store all inflows in an attempt to reach full supply. If the reservoir reaches its full supply level, releases will be made at a reasonable rate, respecting downstream impacts and the target flow at Sherwood, with the objective of being at full supply on or before June 1. Grant Devine Lake will also be used to meet any apportionment requirements in 2019 not satisfied by prior releases and local flows. 3

5 Figure 1: Summer 2018 Rainfall Percentiles 4

6 Figure 2: Percent Normal Precipitation 60-days Prior to Freeze-up (September 3 to November 1, 2018) 5

7 Figure 3: Percent Average Winter Precipitation (Nov. 1, 2018 Feb 28, 2019) 6

8 Figure 4: Departure from Average Winter Precipitation (Nov. 1, 2018 Feb 28, 2019) 7

9 Figure 5: Snow Water Equivalent from Airborne Gamma (January 12, 2019) 8

10 Figure 6: Snow Water Equivalent as Estimated via Satellite February 22,

11 Figure 7: WSA Manual Snow Sampling (mm) February 25-28,

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