Advances in Flood Hazard Forecasting Using the International Community to Accelerate Innovation. Karel Heynert Deltares
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1 Advances in Flood Hazard Forecasting Using the International Community to Accelerate Innovation Karel Heynert Deltares
2 May 2008 in Myanmar
3 May 2008 in Myanmar
4 Properties at Risk?!?
5 Response
6 Forecasting, Warning & Response Detection Warning Response Forecasting Key Questions From data to information Simulation Could flood levels be predicted with more lead time? Could the predictions be more accurate? What is the risk of flooding under the prevailing and predicted hydraulic conditions?
7 Delft FEWS Open Shell Forecasting System System for operational forecasting (resilience!) Flood, surge, water quality, structure stability Fully configurable by (super)users Platform for operational research Short cycle from research to operations Java, Delft PostgreSQL/Oracle, FEWS User Days Jboss, 2009: XML 4-5 November 09 in Delft Operating system independent, very scalable Software free of charge central role for user community
8 Sharing Tools > 50 models of different nature DELFT-FEWS Model Type Supplier/Owner Country ISIS 1D Hydrodynamic HR/Halcrow UK Flux 1D Hydrodynamics Scietec Austria DELFT3D 2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water quality Deltares Netherlands TWAM 2D Hydrodynamics PlanB UK DELFT-3D 2D-3D Hydrodynamics Deltares Netherlands Modflow96/VKD 3D groundwater Deltares/Adam Taylor Netherlands/UK BASEFLOW Baseflow Simulation NWS USA CHANLOSS Channel loss Simulation NWS USA CONSUSE Consumptive use of River Simulation NWS USA Grid2Grid Distributed Hydrologic Model CEH UK REW Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands Vflo Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Vieux & Assiciates USA PCRASTER Dynamic Modelling Software University Utrecht Netherlands ARMA Error Correction CEH UK PRTF Event Based RR PlanB UK GLACIER Glacier simulation NWS USA HEC-RAS Hydrodynamic USACE USA SynHP Hydrodynamics BfG Germany Mike11 Hydrodynamics DHI Denmark SOBEK Hydrodynamics, Water Quality, RR Deltares Netherlands SOBEK-2d Linked 1d/2d inundation modelling Deltares Netherlands RSNELEV Rain Snow Elevation Simulation NWS USA PDM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK TCM Rainfall-Runoff CEH UK Sacramento Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands NAM Rainfall-Runoff DHI Denmark MCRM Rainfall-Runoff EA UK Wageningen model Rainfall-Runoff Haskoning Netherlands SAC-SMA Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA API-CONT Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA SACSMATH Rainfall-Runoff NWS USA TOPKAPI Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Bologna Italy PRMS Rainfall-Runoff Univ. of Karlsruhre Germany HBV Rainfall-Runoff (inc snowmelt) SHMI Sweden URBS Rainfall-runoff and hydrological routing Don Caroll Australia rtcmodule Reservoir Simulation Deltares Netherlands SSARRESV Reservoir Simulation NWS USA RESSNGL Reservoir Simulation NWS USA HEC-ResSim Reservoir Simulation USACE USA LAG/K Routing (hydrological) NWS USA SARROUTE Routing (hydrological) NWS USA KW Routing (kinematic wave) CEH UK DODO Routing (layered Muskingum) EA UK LAYCOEF Routing Model NWS USA MUSKROUT Routing Model NWS USA LAYCOEF Routing model NWS USA TATUM Routing Model NWS USA PACK Snow Melt CEH UK Snow17 Snow Melt NWS USA TRITON Surge propagation/overtopping PlanB UK STF Transfer functions EA UK Unit-HG Unit-Hydrograph NWS USA SWMM Urban Rainfall-Runoff USGS USA RIBASIM Water distribution + Reservoir Deltares Netherlands Model Generic Module Type Supplier/Owner Country ISIS Adapter 1D Hydrodynamic HR/Halcrow UK Flux 1D Hydrodynamics Scietec Austria DELFT3D 2/3D Hydrodynamics/ Water quality Deltares Netherlands TWAM XML2D Hydrodynamics PlanB UK DELFT-3D 2D-3D Hydrodynamics Deltares Netherlands Modflow96/VKD 3D groundwater Deltares/Adam Taylor Netherlands/UK BASEFLOW Baseflow Simulation NWS USA CHANLOSS Channel loss Simulation NWS USA Model CONSUSE Consumptive use of River Simulation NWS USA Grid2Grid Adapter Distributed Hydrologic Model CEH UK REW Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Deltares Netherlands Native Vflo Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Native Vieux & Assiciates USA format PCRASTER Model Dynamic Modelling format Software University Utrecht Netherlands ARMA Error Correction CEH UK PRTF Event Based RR PlanB UK GLACIER Glacier simulation NWS USA HEC-RAS Hydrodynamic USACE USA SynHP public.deltares.nl/display/fewsdoc/models+linked+to+delft-fews Hydrodynamics BfG Germany Mike11 Hydrodynamics DHI Denmark SOBEK Hydrodynamics, Water Quality, RR Deltares Netherlands
9 Open System Open to many data formats (XML, Grib, NetCDF etc.) Process configuration - Workflows HD Model Model 1 Flood Forecasting System Model Current 2 University Model 3
10 Sharing Science Generic topics Probabilistic forecasting Data model integration ( data assimilation) Forecast verification Training for dealing with extreme events (Serious Gaming)
11 Sharing Science Generic topics Probabilistic forecasting Data model integration ( data assimilation) Forecast verification Training for dealing with extreme events (Serious Gaming) Fields of work Drought forecasting & reservoir management Coastal and estuary forecasting Inundation forecasting Tsunami s Water quality forecasting (e.g. harmful algae bloom)
12 Data Poor Environments Using Delft FEWS Real-time use of hybrid approaches fall-back options Quantification of and dealing with uncertainties Error correction & data assimilation Combining different data sources in-situ monitoring accurate but limited areal extent models good areal spread but limited accuarcy remote sensing data accurate & good areal spread but availability issues (place & time)
13 Waterlevels at Sea using Satellite based Laser Altimetry Model calibration Surges & sea level anomalies Accuarcy: order of centimeters (after reanalysis) Future? use over remote sensing data for real-time (surge) forecasting
14 Delft FEWS User Community
15 Delft FEWS User Community #1 Environment Agency for England & Wales National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) Rijkswaterstaat & waterboards in The Netherlands Mekong River Commission National & smaller regional applications
16 Delft FEWS User Community #2 Environment Agency for England & Wales National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) Rijkswaterstaat & waterboards in The Netherlands National Weather Service (NWS/NOAA) in United States Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
17 Thank you for your attention!
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