Operational modelling & forecasting in urban catchments. Richard Body Product Sector Leader Operational Forecasting

Transcription

1 Operational modelling & forecasting in urban catchments Richard Body Product Sector Leader Operational Forecasting

2 Contents What is operational forecasting Innovyze software ICMLive components Benefits Preparing a model for ICMLive TSDB Use cases

3 What is operational forecasting? The ability to predict what is likely to happen in the future based on current/past data Predictions based on the results of model simulations Provides information to the user which can be used to make operational choices Note: we re not talking about automatic operation of the system yet!

4 Tenets of flood forecasting A forecasting system should be: Timely: available in the shortest possible time from measurement / data availability Accurate: people need confidence in the system Reliable: capable of functioning in the severe conditions that prevail during storms and disasters Adaptable: able to take account of the impacts of physical changes in the catchment

5 Why do we need forecasting software? Improving the operational efficiency of existing urban drainage networks Provision of decision support tools in the control room Provision of flood alerts in urban environments Improved understanding of the network operation Maximising return on investment in network models Move towards a holistic approach of catchment modelling

6 Making ICMLive Possible Availability of high-quality network models Availability of integrated modelling software (InfoWorks ICM) Availability of high quality DEM data (for overland flow modelling) Falling data collection costs Improvements in rainfall forecasting Faster hardware (multi-core & GPU) Software technologies to leverage hardware improvements

7 Forecasting Software from Innovyze Development Timeline 1999 FloodWorks Acquired engine 2000 FloodWorks Added RS model Wrapped engine in a user interface 2006 FloodWorks Added CS model 2010 IWLive 2013 ICMLive

8 What is ICMLive? Real time data Radar Telemetry Rain gauges Water levels Flow meters Pump operation Gate movements ICMLive InfoWorks ICM model Operational forecasts

9 ICMLive - operational forecasting Links to telemetry and other data sources to receive real-time and forecast data Runs regular automatic simulations of the InfoWorks ICM model Run interval can be reduced automatically if various criteria is met Forecasts levels, flows & water quality across whole urban catchment Generates warnings and alerts to the operator

10 ICMLive Configuration Manager

11 ICMLive - Rainfall

12 ICMLive Operator Client

13 ICMLive Functionality Automatic loading of forecast runs Triggered forecast frequency Built-in client using SMTP Multi-functional alerts You can alert on anything Observed, modelled and combinations Export of results to csv/sql/oracle What-if scenarios Skeletonised models can trigger detailed models

14 Benefits I Forecasting of system states Reduction in flood damages Reduction of risk to public, staff & contractors Reduction in numbers of CSO spills Real-time model and telemetry data Early identification of maintenance issues Improved understanding of network operation

15 Benefits II Operational management Schedule pump and gate operation Evaluate different control strategies Maximise the use of system storage Reduction in energy and CO2 costs Continuous simulation Continuous evaluation of existing and proposed systems using real-world inputs

16 Model Preparation and Simplification

17 Model preparation I Getting an ICM model into ICMLive is relatively straightforward. ICMLive is an extension of ICM Key tasks Convert event data into TSDBs Create TVD Connectors Develop alerts/actions There will be some IT tasks as well

18 Model preparation II Those IT tasks... Get IT involved early! Machines/Permissions/ /Data transfer Sourcing telemetry data Deciding key inputs Sourcing and prioritising forecast data You may have to adjust your model

19 ICM Modelling Modern approach is to add as much detail as possible to a model Small pipes Complex RTC Full 2D network Water courses But remember the four flood forecasting criteria.

20 TSDBs and Live Data

21 Rainfall Flow Temperature Quality Infiltration Snow Regulator Event Level

22 We re doing things better

23 What is a TSDB? Flow Level Rainfall Pump Settings Water Quality Velocity Infiltration Observ ed Radar Foreca st Radar Other Spatial Rainfal l

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25 Live Data Sources

26 Sources Telemetry databases: Microsoft SQL Server Oracle ODBC PI ihistorian ClearSCADA Flat files CSV Batch CSV

27 Weather Feeds: Data Formats Grib 1 (observed and forecast) Grib 2 (observed and forecast) NetCDF (observed and forecast) NEXRAD (DPR) NIMROD (observed and forecast) Shapefile (observed and forecast) X-MP (on the spot and forecast) Furuno (observed and forecast)

28 Data Feeds Threshold Pressure > 50m Duration Pressure < 10m for 3hrs

29 Threshold Pressure > 50m Common terms NOW hindcast forecast CRITICAL floodlevel NON-CRITICAL floodlevel

30 Moveable assets: Internal Controls Pumps, gates, valves Observed settings revert to control rules into the future

31 Existing Users

32 Existing Users

33 EASTNEY PUMP STATION

34 Eastney Project Background Project initiation 4D JV engaged Innovyze to build early warning system Hydraulic model developed by MWH using InfoWorks CS Operational system designed by Innovyze using ICMLive System goals Forecast water levels for flood forecasting Forecast pump operation Forecast flows to Fort Cumberland

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36 System Overview Pumping Station located in Eastney Four large diesel pumps Two small diesel pumps modelled as a combined pump in IWCS Sister pumping station (four electric pumps) Pumping stations at Cosham, Drayton, Copnor ICMLive system used to combine rainfall radar and gauge data with level and pump information to provide warnings of pump operation and flows Operators able to change the pump settings in ICM model in order to improve levels of service

37 ICMLive - Eastney Pump Operation Fort Cumberland Flows Real time data Nowcast Telemetry 5 Rain gauges 9SLM Pump operation ICMLive Eastney hydraulic model Operational forecasts

38 Decision Support Forecasts run every fifteen minutes Forecast period 6 hours Critical results Observed/modelled levels Pump settings visible in map view Radar rainfall can be overlain Critical Points Eastney Pumping Station Long and short sea outfalls

39 RAVEDIS FLOOD FORECASTING

40 The problem How to manage river flows to optimise reservoir operation whilst minimising flooding at a major city downstream of Ravedis dam? Client: Consorzio di Bonfica (manages waterways of region) Consultant: Beta Studio, Italy Guidance: HR Wallingford, with support from Innovyze

41 Project location

42 The flooding problem in Pordenone City of Pordenone Meduna river Noncello valley Pordenone community

43 Ravedis Dam Key structure in catchment Used for HEP Generation, Irrigation and Flood Control Balance of three uses

44 Catchment Modelling Upstream catchments modelled using PDM with snow melt inputs River modelled using InfoWorks ICM (1D model) Three outfall nodes along the river to model losses through gravels to ground water 1D Flood spreading

45 Forecasting System ICMLive used for the forecasting Key telemetry/input signals: Gauged rainfall Radar rainfall Gate operations at Ravedis Water levels

46 Forecast data Nowcast (3 to 5 hours) anticipate the prediction of peak flow optimise flood control Forecast (2 to 3 days) COSMO-LAMI model Overall weather state Mathematical model Advantages: Reduction in false alarms Longer lead times

47 Operational System Operational since 2014 Installed in Consorzio di Bonfica offices Runs hourly

48 THAMES WATER

49 Thames Water The original ICMLive system UK s largest water company Thames Valley, including London, Reading, Oxford, Luton 15 million customers Originally model design to cover the Beckton catchment (north London)

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51 ICMLive Implementation Originally FloodWorks In place 2012 in time for the London Olympic No CSOs to the River Lea! Originally model design to cover the Beckton catchment (north London)

52 ICMLive Implementation System Summary Combines a very large InfoWorks ICM model with real time telemetry (level gauge) and radar rainfall data Run forecasts in real time Alerts generated where CSOs, flood events or results divergence occur alerts distributed to operations staff

53 Olympic Site

54 Olympic Implementation Thames Water tasked with having NO CSOs to the River Lea over the Olympic period FloodWorks system included as part of the Thames Water Olympic Control Room Fortunately the Olympic period was very dry!

55 Current Implementation Rolling out across the remaining catchments Hydrology runs every 30 minutes Hydraulic runs triggered when rainfall is detected.

56 Current Implementation