The use of rainfall radar in flood warning. Holly Denning Flood Incident Management Team - Wessex

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1 The use of rainfall radar in flood warning Holly Denning Flood Incident Management Team - Wessex 1

2 Agenda h Objectives h Crewkerne and Shepton Mallet, Somerset 29 th May 2008 h Ringwood, Dorset 3 rd June 2008 h Bournemouth 12 th September 2008 h Ottery St Mary, East Devon 30 th October 2008 h Our future work h Summary h Working with the Met Office 2

3 Objectives h Highlight issues with observed/forecast radar rainfall and its impact on user confidence h Assess the impact of observed radar on rainfall forecast products h Explore the use of rainfall radar to provide a timely and accurate flood warning service. 3

4 Rainfall Radar in Flood Warning h Main operational rainfall radar products we receive from Met Office are, Nimrod, NWP and UKPP (STEPS) h Observed and forecast data used in the National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) h Additional rainfall forecast products include; Daily Weather Forecast Heavy Rainfall Warning Extreme Rainfall Alert Early Severe Weather Warning Telephone consultation 4

5 Crewkerne 29 May

6 Shepton Mallet 29 May

7 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall 17:30 GMT 7

8 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall 17:45 GMT 8

9 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall 18:00 GMT 9

10 Crewkerne Rainfall Summary Comparison of Winsham TBR, Observed Radar at Winsham and Observed Radar at Crewkerne Rainfall intensities 15 min intervals Winsham TBR 15 min Winsham Radar 15 min At Crewkerne Radar 15 min Rainfall (mm) 16:00 16:15 16:30 16:45 17:00 17:15 17:30 17:45 18:00 18:15 18:30 Time (15min) Winsham TBR 15 min Winsham Radar 15 min Rainfall (mm) At Crewkerne Radar 15 min 14:00 14:15 14:30 14:45 15:00 15:15 15:30 15:45 16:00 16:15 16:30 16:45 17:00 17:15 17:30 17:45 18:00 18:15 18:30 18:45 19:00 Time (GMT)

11 Shepton Mallet Rainfall Summary Comparison of Stoke Bottom and Downhead TBRs with Observed Radar 50 Rainfall intensities 15 min interval Rainfall (mm) 14:00 14:15 14:30 14:45 15:00 15:15 15:30 15:45 16:00 16:15 16:30 16:45 17:00 17:15 17:30 17:45 18:00 18:15 18:30 18:45 19:00 19:15 19:30 19:45 20:00 Time (GMT) Stoke Bottom TBR Stoke Bottom Radar Downhead TBR Downhead Radar R ainfall (m m ) 16:30 16:45 17:00 17:15 17:30 17:45 18:00 18:15 18:30 Time (GMT) Stoke Bottom TBR Stoke Bottom Radar Downhead TBR Downhead Radar

12 Catchment Alert Threshold (mm) 1 hr 3 hrs 6 hrs 9 hrs 12 hrs 24 hrs CWI < > Rive Brue Upper River Isle 12

13 Ringwood 3 June 2008 h The observed radar overestimates compared to local rain gauges h Over estimation is linked to dynamic changes in the adjustment factor h Instability of the radar can then be used to initiate forecasts within UKPP (STEPS) 13

14 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km 24hr observed accumulation 00:00-23:45 GMT 14

15 Ringwood Rainfall Summary East Mills and Tidworth TBRs with Observed Radar East Mills Radar = 67mm 60 Tidworth Radar = 52mm East Mills TBR = 44mm Tidworth TBR = 37mm Rainfall (mm) 00:30 01:30 02:30 03:30 04:30 05:30 06:30 07:30 08:30 09:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30 17:30 18:30 19:30 20:30 21:30 22:30 23:30 Time (GMT) East Mills Radar East Mills TBR Tidworth TBR Tidworth Radar

16 Adjustment factors causing overestimation 16

17 Bournemouth 12 September

18 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall 13:45 GMT 18

19 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall 14:00 GMT 19

20 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall 14:15 GMT 20

21 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall 14:30 GMT 21

22 Bournemouth Rainfall Summary Blacklane TBR and Observed Radar Black Lane TBR (15min) Black Lane Radar (15min) 22 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 Time (GMT) 12:30 12:00 Rainfall (mm) Holdenhurst TBR and Observed Radar Rainfall (mm) 2 Holdenhurst TBR (15min) Holdenhurst Radar (15min) :00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 Time (GMT) Alderney TBR and Observed Radar Alderney TBR (15min) Alderney Radar (15min) 12:45 13:00 13:15 13:30 13:45 14:00 14:15 14:30 14:45 15:00 15:15 15:30 15:45 16:00 16:15 16:30 16:45 Time (GMT) 12:30 12:15 12:00 Rainfall (mm) Alderney TBR and Observed Radar Alderney TBR (15min) Alderney Radar (15min) Rainfall (mm) :00 12:30 13:00 13:30 14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 Time (GMT)

23 Rainfall Forecast Summary Forecast lead time provided by UKPP Rainfall 15min interval (mm) HRW at 9: mm/1hr & 25mm/6hr (20%) 0 12:00 12:15 UKPP accumulation showing heavy rainfall in area 12:30 12:45 13:00 13:15 13:30 13:45 14:00 14:15 14:30 14:45 Time (GMT) Start rainfall event 15:00 15:15 15:30 ERA imminent issued UKPP 08:30 forecast, 6 hr total = 0.4mm UKPP 10:30 forecast, 6 hr total = 1.5mm UKPP 12:30 forecast, 6 hr total = 0.1mm UKPP 14:00 forecast, 6 hr total = 24mm UKPP 14:30 forecast, 6 hr total = 28mm 15:45 16:00 16:15 16:30 16:45 17:00 23

24 UKPP 2 km 6hr accumulation 12:30-18:30 GMT 24

25 UKPP 2 km 6hr accumulation 13:30-19:30 GMT 25

26 Ottery St Mary 30 October

27 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall at 00:30 GMT 27

28 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall at 00:45 GMT 28

29 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall at 01:00 GMT 29

30 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall at 01:15 GMT 30

31 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km composite - observed rainfall at 01:30 GMT 31

32 Ottery St Mary Rainfall Summary Comparison of Ottery St Mary TBR and Dunkeswell TBR with Observed Radar :45 Rainfall intensities at Ottery St Mary and Dunkeswell TBR sites compared to Observed Radar Ottery St Mary Radar Ottery St Mary TBR Dunkesw ell Radar Dunkesw ell TBR Cumlative Rainfall (mm) 17:15 17:45 18:15 18:45 19:15 19:45 20:15 20:45 21:15 21:45 22:15 22:45 23:15 23:45 00:15 00:45 01:15 01:45 02:15 02:45 03:15 03:45 04:15 Time (GMT) Ottery St Mary Radar Ottery St Mary TBR Dunkeswell Radar Dunkeswell TBR 17:15 17:45 18:15 18:45 19:15 19:45 20:15 20:45 21:15 21:45 22:15 22:45 23:15 23:45 00:15 00:45 01:15 01:45 02:15 02:45 03:15 03:45 04:15 04:45 Rainfall (mm) Time (GMT)

33 Nimrod UK 1/2/5 km 12hr observed accumulation 17:00-05:00 GMT 33

34 Forecast Performance Lead time offered by UKPP 7 Rainfall 15min interval (mm) UKPP 19:30 forecast, 6hr total = 16mm UKPP 21:30 forecast, 6hr total = 4mm UKPP 22:30 forecast, 6hr total = 2mm UKPP 23:30 forecast, 6hr total = 4mm UKPP 00:30 forecast, 6hr total = 23mm :30 19:00 19:30 20:00 20:30 21:00 21:30 22:00 22:30 23:00 23:30 0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 7:45 Heavy rainfall warning 30mm/6hrs (20%) NWP forecast 42mm/6hrs Time (GMT) Start rainfall event ERA imminent issued 34

35 NWP 4km 6hr accumulation 21:00 03:00 GMT 35

36 We re working towards h Rainfall Radar Alarms & Catchment Alerts h Incorporating rainfall criteria with river level/flow to trigger a flood warning h The use of probabilistic flood forecasting and flood warning h How to manage unforeseeable issues; blockage of culverts & soil compaction 36

37 Summary h Important to achieving accurate observed radar as it is used to initiate the forecast in UKPP (STEPS) h We require improved confidence in observed rainfall and forecast products for heavy rainfall events - timely - accurate rainfall values 37

38 Future work with the Met Office h Continued work between Met Office and Environment Agency h Customers demands h Providers limitations 38

39 Acknowledgments h Rebecca Miles, Met Office h Richard McKey & Oliver Pollard, Flood Forecasting Team 39

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